UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[SBJJ]

Wait but we aren't talking about the second the fight starts. I agree that once the cage door closes Woodley will be just as confident regardless of opponent. But the human mind can't completely shut out things that are totally obvious. Woodley knows that at this point WB is very likely a far superior fighter and bigger challenge than GSP or Nick. Thus, if you hooked him up to a polygraph and asked him "Do you have the same level of confidence you'll beat WB that you would if you were fighting GSP or Nick Diaz" he'd either answer "no" or he'd fail the poly imo.

100% Correct

 

[Joseph Budden]

Wait but we aren't talking about the second the fight starts. I agree that once the cage door closes Woodley will be just as confident regardless of opponent. But the human mind can't completely shut out things that are totally obvious. Woodley knows that at this point WB is very likely a far superior fighter and bigger challenge than GSP or Nick. Thus, if you hooked him up to a polygraph and asked him "Do you have the same level of confidence you'll beat WB that you would if you were fighting GSP or Nick Diaz" he'd either answer "no" or he'd fail the poly imo.

I know we aren't which is why I said you have to keep that mindset during camp. If you can't recognize nerves, doubts, etc. are part of the process and move past it when you have to, you are defeating yourself. I don't believe mid tier UFC fighters defeat themselves in that sense, nvm T Wood

Thats just being real, as far as WB being higher level comp. I think thats healthy. But I don't think it affects his confidence.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Lol. The whole team was juicing. I'm old man.

I can also spot a juicer a mile away. And if it's cowardice, then some of the guys u are saying are so confident were some BIG ASS COWARDS

I just had to be honest with you. I'd hope as you've gotten older you've realized that, if anything, the juicing only hurt your mental game. Everyone has their competitive philosophies, but if you juice to me thats basically admission you aren't as bad of a motherfucker as me an i'd feed off that. I'll always believe non juicers have a mental edge. It shows you think you need help to win, and needing help in a one on one competition is not good if you're facing someone whos mental game. is rock solid.

Yep, mentally they are, and some of them show it when they fight. Vitor and Reem immediately come to mind. I feel OK saying that from a fan perspective when A LOT of non juicers in the game feel the same as me lol

 

[mkess101]

yes but we are gambling degenerates, not life long athletes lol

I'm more badass I was the Diaz of wrestling

Spoiler

but you are bigger than me

I played college football and was all state in high school. All conference in bball too. Trained at a solid MMA gym for 3 years.

But yeah not a pro athlete at a high level, that's for sure. Plus I'm old as dirt now. Almost 40.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I played college football and was all state in high school. All conference in bball too. Trained at a solid MMA gym for 3 years.

But yeah not a pro athlete at a high level, that's for sure. Plus I'm old as dirt now. Almost 40.

Damn, 40? Would you even be able to get out of your wheelchair to fight me?

 

[mkess101]

Damn, 40? Would you even be able to get out of your wheelchair to fight me?

Listen young whipper snapper, don't piss an old man off...

 

[t6p]

What do u think the line would be if the lawler fight never happened?

The opening line? Well Woodley opened at +200 against Lawler and closed at +100. He opened at +120 against Wonderboy and is currently sitting at +170. Had the Lawler fight never happened Woodley would be coming into this fight with 20+ months of inactivity and Wonderboy is on an amazing run. I would think he'd open in the +250 range.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

You guys can take Wonderboy all you want but playing a -200 line isn't even a profitable margin. I certainly wouldn't be proud to leave Las Vegas risking 2,000 to win a mere 1,000.

Woodley is being disrespected too much by everyone. You guys need to come correct or you'll be parting with your money real soon.

There was no evidence that Eddie Alvarez was going to beat let alone KO RDA in the first like that but that happened as a -300 favorite. Even in my breakdown I picked RDA but because of the money wasn't right, you cannot disrespect a fighter of Eddie's caliber to relegate him to a +220 underdog. As a handicapper I blindly bet Eddie and if the same odds are being given for Woodley by fight day I'm going to blindly bet him too even though I'm picking Wonderboy.

 

[SBJJ]

You guys can take Wonderboy all you want but playing a -200 line isn't even a profitable margin. I certainly wouldn't be proud to leave Las Vegas risking 2,000 to win a mere 1,000.

Woodley is being disrespected too much by everyone. You guys need to come correct or you'll be parting with your money real soon.

There was no evidence that Eddie Alvarez was going to beat let alone KO RDA in the first like that but that happened as a -300 favorite. Even in my breakdown I picked RDA but because of the money wasn't right, you cannot disrespect a fighter of Eddie's caliber to relegate him to a +220 underdog. As a handicapper I blindly bet Eddie and if the same odds are being given for Woodley by fight day I'm going to blindly bet him too even though I'm picking Wonderboy.

Wonders!! -170 & -300 are different stratospheres. And a MERE 1000?

No one is saying u are wrong in your thinking. But acting as if someone betting WB @ -180 is some crazy nonsense bet seems far out there

And I'm always proud if I win and am on the right side of the bet.

 

[SBJJ]

This comes down to(basically) if T can KO him in rd 1. I'm just not comfortable betting a guy even at +160 because he has a chance at a KO in the first. Especially against a guy who has been fighting for as long as WB and has showed a solid beard. I agree if he was +230 or so of course the dynamics change.

 

[Brick Top]

You guys can take Wonderboy all you want but playing a -200 line isn't even a profitable margin. I certainly wouldn't be proud to leave Las Vegas risking 2,000 to win a mere 1,000.

Dat unknowledgeable, casual gambler mindset.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Dat unknowledgeable, casual gambler mindset.

Proud to be a casual. Unlike you degens, at least I'm able to take blunt breaks between ultimate chicken head fights

Wonders!! -170 & -300 are different stratospheres. And a MERE 1000?

No one is saying u are wrong in your thinking. But acting as if someone betting WB @ -180 is some crazy nonsense bet seems far out there

And I'm always proud if I win and am on the right side of the bet.

Honestly in MOST cases I can only justify a 2:1 favorite if the guy has a clear ground advantage. The sport is geared towards ground fighters for the most part. That's just my personal principle. I hope I don't sound like an ass I'm just stating my opinion.

 

[mkess101]

Proud to be a casual. Unlike you degens, at least I'm able to take blunt breaks between ultimate chicken head fights



Honestly in MOST cases I can only justify a 2:1 favorite if the guy has a clear ground advantage. The sport is geared towards ground fighters for the most part. That's just my personal principle. I hope I don't sound like an ass I'm just stating my opinion.

I was with you 6-7 years ago on the ground edge. If a guy has a clear striking edge (Wonderboy does) AND is very adept at distance and keeping fights standing, I'm good with laying some juice.

Plus a 5 round fight where there looks to be a HUGE gas tank edge for Wonderboy. How do you not take that into account? Woodley has clearly looked very tired multiple times as early as round 3 in his fights where WB doesn't seem to slow and will most likely dictate the pace.

If Woodley wins, it's EXTREMELY likely it's within 2 rounds. So you can bet WB -3.5 when it opens and then hedge with Woodley rd 1 and rd 2. Woodley doesn't have the gas tank to grind out a grappling win over 5 rds and he's not a gnp finisher.

I won't pay the juice on WB ML because I think he either wins an easy decision or more likely finishes Woodley. I'll play the -3.5 and WB itd. Then maybe hedge Woodley rd 1, possibly rd 2.

 

[Brick Top]

Proud to be a casual. Unlike you degens, at least I'm able to take blunt breaks between ultimate chicken head fights



Honestly in MOST cases I can only justify a 2:1 favorite if the guy has a clear ground advantage. The sport is geared towards ground fighters for the most part. That's just my personal principle. I hope I don't sound like an ass I'm just stating my opinion.

I've not bet on anything since the last ufc bro

Just saying... A -200 bet can have value too, so can a -400... Odds don't matter

 

[Brick Top]

Man after watching the Mendes fight I genuinely have no idea how anyone can bet on McGregor at anything under evens

 

[mkess101]

Man after watching the Mendes fight I genuinely have no idea how anyone can bet on McGregor at anything under evens

Eddie is way more hittable than Chad imo, at least early. Plus I think the cut to 145 might hurt Conor's cardio. Eddie is absolutely a live dog though.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Rebel_LioN]

For the record the only money I've got on this fight is Wonderboy by decision at +352. I spit on it's current price of +258. When I touchdown in Vegas I'm going to either play the over or Woodley ML.

 

[Sham5916910]

I was with you 6-7 years ago on the ground edge. If a guy has a clear striking edge (Wonderboy does) AND is very adept at distance and keeping fights standing, I'm good with laying some juice.

Plus a 5 round fight where there looks to be a HUGE gas tank edge for Wonderboy. How do you not take that into account? Woodley has clearly looked very tired multiple times as early as round 3 in his fights where WB doesn't seem to slow and will most likely dictate the pace.

If Woodley wins, it's EXTREMELY likely it's within 2 rounds. So you can bet WB -3.5 when it opens and then hedge with Woodley rd 1 and rd 2. Woodley doesn't have the gas tank to grind out a grappling win over 5 rds and he's not a gnp finisher.

I won't pay the juice on WB ML because I think he either wins an easy decision or more likely finishes Woodley. I'll play the -3.5 and WB itd. Then maybe hedge Woodley rd 1, possibly rd 2.

I agree. I actually prefer people with a standing advantage now. We see far more stand up than ground battles these days, plus you have pretty quick stand up's, not to mention judges not rewarding take downs and lnp nearly as much as they used to.

 

[arrelione]

For the lulz:

The bet - Will Jon Jones’s positive drug test be overturned as a result of the arbitration hearing with USADA on October 31? (Hearing must occur for action)

Yes +120
No -150