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UFC 204 - Bisping vs Hendo II - England

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 20, 2016.

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  1. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    So u are saying he is a 1 round brawler because so far he's knocked out his opponents quick?
     
  2. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    How can Struve be 1.53 vs anyone at this stage? Havn't we learned anything from his career? Omiel may not be a future champ, but Struve??! I am happily playing Omiel at 2.40.

    Im thinking about hedging all my ITD plays on the ME with a Bisp DEC, but does anyone think this will go long? Can Hendo really fight for 25 minutes? Last time he went 3 rounds was 2013...
     
  3. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Hedging is for pussies but hedging bisping dec guarantees money.
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Mous really made leites look bad especially after giving bisping such a run for his money
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Becktic will have steep odds tho. Tum + moose pays around -115
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Im just researching this one. Not impressed with daniel so far
     
  7. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Me neither, but are we by Struve?

    True words... I guess I'll hedge a bit.
     
  8. Polarize Green Belt

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    Yeah I agree with that but not in this fight considering Belfort style. A pattern I've seen in Mousasi is he always try to grapple in his most recent fights when he faces good or dangerous strikers (against Thiago Santos, Uriah Hall, Phillippou, St Preux). So I expect Mousasi to work takedowns in the clinch. Mousasi is agressive and very good in the ground, better than Belfort imo for sure. Not impressed with his last performances against Weidman and Jacare. Mousasi did a good fight vs Jacare despite lose.

    I'm gonna bet u1.5 -125 and Mousasi ITD -150 (365bet), (Mousasi ITD -215 5dimes)
    Maybe Belfort R1 +650 (hedge)

    In the main event I favour Bisping but no way I bet him, Henderson is not as good as Rockhold but at the same time is not as stupid as him. The H bomb is a live dog always. 0.5u Henderson ITD +260, and small bets Hendo R1/R2 and Bisping R2/R3/R4
     
  9. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Interesting. I actually think Bisping at -200 is massive value.

    Do we really think Hendo has a 33% chance to win this fight at this stage of his career? A 46 year old Hendo who gets dropped in every fight, is slower than ever, more predictable than ever, without TRT and who gasses in 5 minutes? He's also facing the best version of Bisping ever.

    I honestly think Bisping should be around -400 if not lower. Hendo's Only chance to win this fight is the predictable H-Bomb landing which I'd give a 10% chance of happening all things considered and that's being generous.

    Those odds on Hendo are horrible. I honestly can't fathom why Bisping is -200.
     
  10. Polarize Green Belt

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    I disagree, is the best Bisping vs the worst Hendo, probably true. But look his losses, all against TOP fighters, Bisping would have lose against Mousasi, Cormier, Evans, Machida and Belfort. His chin is not the same that's true, 2 losses KO vs Belfort and a early stoppage vs Mousasi. He took a beating from Rua (with TRT I think) and survived against Lombard. Not that bad.

    Bisping is a solid fighter and has improved since his first fight but -250? no thanks, neither I wouldn't bet him at -200
     
  11. vkram Brown Belt

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    Hendo lost to post TRT Vitor, who I think Bisping would be a favourite against. Also would give him a good chance vs Machida and the Mousasi and Evans fights would be close.
     
  12. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I did think Bisping would open at -400 so when i saw Skybet open him at -160 I had to play it. But the more I have thought about it the more i think the line is about right. I do see this ending itd but i can see it going into the latter rounds. I think we may be overstating Bisping's power because he took Rockhold out in one round. Bisping is sitting down better on his punches but he is not a destructive puncher. I also think he will be pretty hesitant to begin with. We have to remember the psychological aspect to this fight and i haven't seen anyone discuss this. Hendo knocked Bisping dead Bisping im sure is going to be hesitant for the first few rounds while he finds his range and tries to wears Hendo out. What i am trying to say is if this goes into r3 or r4 of course it favours Bisping but that gives Hendo 15 or 20 minutes to land the H bomb. See the Shogun fight for an example of what can happen if you dominate but can't finish Hendo (i know he was on trt then so isn't the same but still it's a concern for me). And while Bisping has a solid chin let's not forget in the first fight Rockhold had him out on his feet from a head kick, CB dropped him, Leites hurt him (did he drop him - i can't remember?) and Silva knocked him out on the buzzer. So besides Bispings's last fight he was hurt in his previous four fights. Hendo hits harder than all four of them, so if he lands clean we know what happens. I will be very surprised if Bisping ends this early i really think it goes into the latter rounds.

    I do favour Bisping but for those reasons I couldn't parlay him. I have just over half a unit on him to close a parlay as like i said -160 was too good, but i won't be adding more. Don't want to play Hendo KO tho as i don't want to wipe out half a units profit if Bisping does win. Will just look to lb this one and see if anything juicey becomes apparent.
     
  13. vkram Brown Belt

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    Bektic -550 vs Doane +400 on Sportsbook.
     
  14. Ukram Silver Belt

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    he is looking like himself at least
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Polarize Green Belt

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    3 years ago he loses against Machida/Evans in LHW(Hendo fought them in 2013). Could win a close DEC specially vs Machida. Mousasi all day. Vitor without TRT is not the same fighter but he's a bad match up for Bisping imo.

    Manuwa DEC +645 5dimes
    St Preux DEC +640

    Someone has a good read on this fight? Could Manuwa avoid the ugly takedowns ?
    Preux is fucking overrated in terms of technique. I don't like nothing he does really lol.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2016
  16. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I totally agree Bisping should aim to drag this into the later rounds, but winning a dec against Hendo gotta count as a loss for Bisp after all the get even-talk, so I fully expect him to come in and look for the KO. Hendo might be able to come back from a knockdown, but Bisping will wear him down over the rounds and finish him later. I am more certain in Hendos downfall than Bispings rise, but as long as someone gets knocked out I am happy.

    The someone gets knocked out line is better than the Bisping ML (1.44 vs 1.40) and then you cover the eventual H-bomb. A decision just seems so unlikely unless Bisping just decides to not turn it up when Hendo slows down...
     
  17. vkram Brown Belt

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    I'm talking about current Bisping vs fighters that Hendo fought. So 2016 Bisping vs 2013 Machida etc. I think the Mousasi fight would be close with either guy winning a decision. From what I remember the Rashad and Machida fights were rather lacklustre. Post TRT Vitor is a 1 round fighter.

    I just think that Bisping has improved a lot whilst working with Jason Parillo over the last couple of years and Hendo has been on a decline. Obviously there is still a chance of Hendo landing the H-Bomb and putting his lights out since power is the last to go.
     
  18. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Omel has no chance. He is a decision machine. Bad cardio...bad fight IQ. Not enough power and speed to KO struve. I think Struve should be even bigger favorite. Happy to get him at 1.53
     
  19. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Just telling you there are 2 red flags.............. Mike perry
    He has some court thing going on and he just talked shit to Alvey. Alvey was nice to him but Perry act like an ass. Confidence increase on Danny
     
  20. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Him and his whole corner seem like complete douches.
     
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