UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[RyuDave]

Thanks.
Hi coach is Anderson silva?! Or they have the same coach?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Hi guys, im brazilian live and born on Rio de Janeiro... About Luan Chagas: Hes jiu jitsu black belt and karate black belt. Good ground game (not high level, but enough to defend against ground game Moraes IMO), good striking, agressive and good cardio.

Hes training with former and first muay thai coach Anderson Silva, on gym called Noguchi Team. This guy is no joke, but few days for UFC debut could to be big dificult to him.

I will put very small stake on him by decision.

ps. sorry my english!

Do you think the crowd will go crazy for Silva during his fight with Hall since the fight is in Curitiba, Silva's hometown?

 

[Agent Mulder]

Yeah man, +2475 was crazy against a guy who has shown a few times to gas hard in R3.

On a similar note, the reason I am playing Corey R3 +1500 is because Shogun has lost in R3 a staggering 40% of the time. Legit 4 out of his 10 losses are in R3. Does that mean he will lose in R3 this fight? Not at all. But at +1500? I'm def taking the shot



I have success with those as well

Nice stats on that Corey r3. Tailed with 0.1u +1600 on bet365.

 

[Rasdun]

love tukhugov

like cummins
like lineker

(5d)

wish I got Cummins at -165! Little Nog seems waaaay past it. Only beat Rashad bc Rashad seemed to just not throw punches the entire fight and Brillz deserved the dec even going back to 2010. Little Nog hasnt looked good in about 7 yrs imo.

 

[Rasdun]

love tukhugov

like cummins
like lineker

(5d)

ez, you really should max bet all your early leans, even for line movement. seems that the lines rarely shift the other way on your leans

 

[Joseph Budden]

I know Corey trains with imo the best striking coach in the game, NJ's own Mark Henry, but man will I be pissed if he doesn't try to wrestlefuck Shogun. When he FINALLY went for the td vs Lawlor in round 3, he straight steamrolled him

 

[lefontes]

Thanks.
Hi coach is Anderson silva?! Or they have the same coach?

No. Anderson change coachs and training on Xgym with Jacare and Alves (also Alan Patrick and others), when travel hes training on Blackhouse, but major time on here Brasil. Chagas training now with first thai coach Anderson Silva, just reference.

So, Chagas and Silva NOT training together.

Do you think the crowd will go crazy for Silva during his fight with Hall since the fight is in Curitiba, Silva's hometown?

I brazilian, but i dont like Anderson, very arrogant, false, in front câmeras is one guy, out câmeras hes arrogant and dont talk with anybody. I dont like him... But, hes a hero, the big name this sport, for 80% brazilians think hes still the best all time, the king, the better brazilian fighter. Hes very popular, more than any in this card, more than Vitor!

I dont know about drug testing in here, nobody talk about this here. The atletic comission is very relax. Im not surprising if not have drug tests for this event and this is good advantage for brazilian fighters IMO if true.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Of course, it'll happen. Variance is everywhere. And btw, the Sasaki SUB play at +325 was more of a SU play, unit wise. I'm not sure if that makes sense. I wanted to play Sasaki, but I didn't exactly like his ML since I thought the vast majority of the time he would win by submission. So when +325 for his SUB opened, I basically treated it as a SU play since I thought it had a lot of value. Basically exactly what I'm doing with Vitor R1 here. But I like this situation even better because of the odds

That could be a solution. Maybe you're not betting to your optimal potential (unit wise). If you have a very strong lean, go for it. Within reason, of course.

Prop plays should also be significantly lower on average compared to a normal ML bet, btw

Yeah this makes sense. I almost stabbed Gunnar sub in a smilar concept more as a ML play...but alas I rode out my Tumenov plays.

Totally agree about Vitor r1 - that is also kinda like a great price on his ML.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Confidence boost in Vitor R1. Vitor has a 2 inch southpaw reach advantage.


Vitor 74" Southpaw
Jacare 72" Orthodox

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Confidence boost in Vitor R1. Vitor has a 2 inch southpaw reach advantage.


Vitor 74" Southpaw
Jacare 72" Orthodox

Fun fact: Take it for what it's worth lol

Vitor has only lost one time to a guy with a shorter reach than himself. Sakuraba in 1999. All other loses were to guys with the same or longer reach

 

[Joseph Budden]

Fun fact: Take it for what it's worth lol

Vitor has only lost one time to a guy with a shorter reach than himself. Sakuraba in 1999. All other loses were to guys with the same or longer reach

Nice stat work on that one

Fatbod Vitor definitely getting overlooked in this fight due to that physique. Tempted to hit his moneyline on top of round 1 but waiting for weigh ins

 

[Rasdun]

I have no clue how Anderson is coming in at his odds after how he looked vs. Lawlor.

i think maybe its more just big fading of shogun, then support of Anderson

 

[mkess101]

Nice stat work on that one

Fatbod Vitor definitely getting overlooked in this fight due to that physique. Tempted to hit his moneyline on top of round 1 but waiting for weigh ins

I think Vitor is getting overlooked because his tdd has never been anything better than average and Jacare has elevated his td game to pretty elite levels.

I like Vitor rd 1 sure, but only as a hedge against all my Jacare action. If Jacare is dumb enough to stand with Vitor for more than the first few seconds then yeah I could see Vitor catching him with a flurry. Otherwise I just don't know how Vitor stays off his back. And then...it will look like the end of Vitor vs Weidman with Jacare advancing position and probably locking up a sub.

Even beast mode supplemented LHW Vitor had shaky tdd. Cannot see him staying upright unless Jacare shows awful fight IQ.

 

[TRT Vitor The Phenom]

Guys, Vitor KO 1st round +900 bet365
You will be greatful to me

 

[mkess101]

Oh, for sure! I'm not trying to influence people in trying to making more $ by playing too many props or anything. I tried to make that clear at the end of my post kinda.

What works for some people doesn't work for others.

My opinion on props is this: They are no different than ML bets.

When all of us cap fights, we simply look at what we think the likelihood of fighter x winning is vs what the odds are at, right? If he's -200 but we think he wins 75% of the time, we think he has some value.

To me props are no different. Of all the outcomes of Corey Anderson vs Shogun, I think Anderson winning by KO/TKO has a likelihood of maybe 25-30%. The prop is paying +550. Thus, I think there's great value.

That's just how I approach them. It's simply capping more specific outcomes.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

My opinion on props is this: They are no different than ML bets.

When all of us cap fights, we simply look at what we think the likelihood of fighter x winning is vs what the odds are at, right? If he's -200 but we think he wins 75% of the time, we think he has some value.

To me props are no different. Of all the outcomes of Corey Anderson vs Shogun, I think Anderson winning by KO/TKO has a likelihood of maybe 25-30%. The prop is paying +550. Thus, I think there's great value.

That's just how I approach them. It's simply capping more specific outcomes.

Pretty much this

 

[SamHale]

Guys, Vitor KO 1st round +900 bet365
You will be greatful to me

Was just about to post this! Such obvious hedge material, if Vitor wins, its most likely by KO in the first.

Sidetone to all bettors: I feel trepidatious betting this card. There's always some serious hometown bias and wacky shit going on over there. Brendan Schaub talked about how before the Nog fight everyone in the blue corner dressing room (where it was pretty much all non-brazilians) was feeling like shit and it turned out they had a truck running right outside it with the fumes pumping in. And do the Brazilians have better opportunity to juice given they don't have to leave home? I don't know. Just concerns I thought I would share.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think Vitor is getting overlooked because his tdd has never been anything better than average and Jacare has elevated his td game to pretty elite levels.

I like Vitor rd 1 sure, but only as a hedge against all my Jacare action. If Jacare is dumb enough to stand with Vitor for more than the first few seconds then yeah I could see Vitor catching him with a flurry. Otherwise I just don't know how Vitor stays off his back. And then...it will look like the end of Vitor vs Weidman with Jacare advancing position and probably locking up a sub.

Even beast mode supplemented LHW Vitor had shaky tdd. Cannot see him staying upright unless Jacare shows awful fight IQ.

Its hard to assess Vitor's tdd. He went balls to the wall vs Weidman, nothing came of it, and then he got crushed. No shame, Weidman is one of the best td artists in the game. Before that, it was Jones. No shame, thats arguably THE best td artist in the game and it was short notice giving up a bunch of size. Before that? We're talking literally a decade since he faced anyone who really put it to the test and had the mindset of grounding Vitor.

It was so long ago, but Randy had some problems getting the tds before beating the shit out of Vitor in the clinch.

I'm not sold at all when it comes to Jacare's offensive wrestling. The only time it really looked sharp was vs Gegard in the small cage.

Personally, I wouldn't touch Jacare at his current price under any circumstance. Not even itd is enticing to me. If the other most visibly notable roid user (Reem) can still have as much success as he has, I won't count Vitor out until he makes it obvious in the cage he isn't the same

 

[mkess101]

Guys, Vitor KO 1st round +900 bet365
You will be greatful to me

I think Jacare steamrolls Vitor but this is an amazing line and such an obvious hedge for anyone on bet365.

If you are betting Jacare you hit this as your hedge for sure. If you were going to pass on the fight you put a little something on this just because of the insane value.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Guys, Vitor KO 1st round +900 bet365
You will be greatful to me

lmao @ your name

I swear though, sometimes its like they just want you Europeans to rake in cash with some of the lines they give you