Trump Makes Big Tariff Move on China Overnight, Signals Where Things May Be Headed
A range of very consequential exemptions were made to President Donald Trump's 125 percent tariff on China late Friday night, and it's providing some clarity about where things are heading.
Specifically, the Customs and Border Patrol
released a bulletin excluding smartphones, computers, computer parts, processors, and other electronics from the reciprocal tariffs.
ALSO SEE: Trump Pauses Tariffs for 90 Days, Puts China in the Crosshairs
There are two sides to this. It does remove some leverage from the White House in trying to pressure China into a one-sided deal, given these products are some of the most lucrative exports for the communist nation. On the other hand, this relieves what would have been one of the largest pain points for Americans had these tariffs stayed in place, and political capital matters in a fight like this.
What does this mean? I think it signals that we are looking for a compromise deal where both sides can claim a win compared to something resembling a decoupling from China for national security reasons. What the details of that look like, we'll have to wait to find out.
As to whether this is a good move or not, I don't have a strong opinion on it. I do believe that decoupling from China is a worthy goal, but there are also big red flags regarding the economy and the bond markets. Memes and sabre-rattling aside, if we don't have the hand to play
right now, then the better move is to try to secure a win and look longer term, perhaps through capital investments to give companies the chance to leave China gradually.
I know some get mad when you say it, but the logistics and costs of manufacturing electronics in the United States just don't work for the most part, so American companies need time to move supply lines and manufacturing to low-cost alternatives. That could be India or some of the Southeast Asian countries, with whom we are expected to secure very friendly trade deals.
In short, if the Trump administration doesn't feel like this is the time to go full-bore at China, then I can't fault them for that. American consumers aren't just numbers on a piece of paper. They are real people, and being strategic to limit the damage to them and the broader economy is a good, not a bad, thing. If people want to describe that as Trump "changing his mind," so be it. It doesn't really matter. Just do what makes the most sense.
