Took time this morning to watch Reyes last few fights

[egk]

Jones could get caught just like everyone else but I think if he's going to lose it will be because he's fighting not to lose rather than to win. That's what I saw in the Santos fight.

Lots think Santos won but he didn't do a hell of a lot in a rather boring fight. Jones didn't do much either but did just enough to win. People hate Jones so much that they see what they want to see in a close fight.

 

[BigGucci]

I think Reyes is going to lose. As we know, Jones has used steroids to make it past his tougher opponents. Now that the Athletic commission has gone on record saying that he is allowed to use steroids for upcoming fights by allowing pulsing, I think his domination will continue because there's no incentive for him not to steroid for every fight now.

 

[ArtOfDrowning]

Agree. Reyes looks pretty average. Maybe he picked on something from Jones vs Santos fight and will try to fight like that but I can see Jones just kicking and jabbing from range for 25 minutes.

Also Reyes allows for people to push him against the cage too easily. If Jones comes in with wrestling it will be a short night for Reyes.

Hopefully Reyes can land some counter on Jones but counterstriking is not so effective against Jones.

 

[Ideanudge]

People saying Jones gets 50-45 or a quick finish just don't recognize talent in general.

 

[MMAMAX]

Reyes is too caught up in being “the one” already.

Jones wasn’t playing when he said he was coming to get him.

Jones is gonna make a statement and finish dude

 

[Iron Wolf]

On paper, don’t see this being much a problem for Jones. But Jones has looked a little more vulnerable lately, especially is his last fight. Is he starting to slip up? Who knows. Most likely Jones wins a one sided Decision, but you never know. Guys on dominant streaks like the one Jones is on seem like they’ll beat everybody until they don’t.

Agreed. I think Jones is ~2.5 years removed from his prime at this stage. As you said, he will continue to win until he very suddenly doesn’t.

 

[Pilo]

On paper, don’t see this being much a problem for Jones. But Jones has looked a little more vulnerable lately, especially is his last fight. Is he starting to slip up? Who knows. Most likely Jones wins a one sided Decision, but you never know. Guys on dominant streaks like the one Jones is on seem like they’ll beat everybody until they don’t.

That's an excellent point. Anderson Silva looked unbeatable and people were not giving Weidman a hint of a chance against him...until it happened. Then people argued that it was because Silva fought dumb and was fooling around. Until Weidman did it again. Then, Anderson's invincibility became a thing of the past, and he started to win some and lose some. Next thing you know, the once unbeatable king of 185 has lost 6 of his last 8, with one of the two wins overturned due to a failed drug test, and the other win a highly questionable, paper-thin decision. And the vast majority of these fights were against opponents we'd never have suspected to even stand a chance against him during his reign.

Fedor was on a huge winning streak and was a master of ground and pound, landing vicious punches even when in the guard of incredible BJJ practicioners. Then Werdum tapped him out. Then there was the Bigfoot loss and the Hendo KO, and just like that, the man who once was "invincible" was losing three in a row.

The point is, Jones will lose at some point. And you can bet the house it won't be against someone everybody is expecting to win the fight. That's just normal, since he's expected to win by being on such a winning streak and having never been defeated.

Thiago Santos lost some fights against much lesser opponents at MW, yet he's the man who came the closest to dethroning Jones at 205.

There are a bunch of X factors that come into every fight, especially with a guy who:

-Has shown signs of a lack of motivation in the past by underestimating opponents;
-Has been at the top of the mountain for such a long time, leaving plenty of footage that future opponents can study;
-Relies so heavily on his length and faces a true 205 pounder with a physique that matches his own.

I actually think Reyes could very well be the first man to beat Jones, seriously. And that's not entirely based on whether Reyes is a capable fighter or not.

 

[RiotWyatt]

While I'm not convinced it's going to look much different than Jon's previous fights Reyes does bring some good skills.
Guys don't just overextend by themselves. Reyes has good footwork and can cut angles to set up his counter.

Check out the OSP KD/KO



OSP doesn't overextend by himself. Reyes cuts the angle and moves his feet perfectly to set up the straight left.

Similar with Weidman. chris didn't overextend by himself, Reyes is playing off the back foot and his footwork allows him to time the counter.



Granted OSP was gassed and rocked, sloppy and hands down by that point, and Weidman is Weidman, but I feel you're not giving Reyes enough credit for doing the right things.

I'm not saying Reyes is the man to do it. But he's got good fundamentals, nice straight punches, pretty good power. He's also similar in size to Gus.

Educated post by someone who actually understands striking. Unlike OP.

Reyes is a really good striker. So much so, that Volkan felt the need to grapple him to win.

 

[sdpdude9]

That's an excellent point. Anderson Silva looked unbeatable and people were not giving Weidman a hint of a chance against him...until it happened. Then people argued that it was because Silva fought dumb and was fooling around. Until Weidman did it again. Then, Anderson's invincibility became a thing of the past, and he started to win some and lose some. Next thing you know, the once unbeatable king of 185 has lost 6 of his last 8, with one of the two wins overturned due to a failed drug test, and the other win a highly questionable, paper-thin decision. And the vast majority of these fights were against opponents we'd never have suspected to even stand a chance against him during his reign.

Fedor was on a huge winning streak and was a master of ground and pound, landing vicious punches even when in the guard of incredible BJJ practicioners. Then Werdum tapped him out. Then there was the Bigfoot loss and the Hendo KO, and just like that, the man who once was "invincible" was losing three in a row.

The point is, Jones will lose at some point. And you can bet the house it won't be against someone everybody is expecting to win the fight. That's just normal, since he's expected to win by being on such a winning streak and having never been defeated.

Thiago Santos lost some fights against much lesser opponents at MW, yet he's the man who came the closest to dethroning Jones at 205.

There are a bunch of X factors that come into every fight, especially with a guy who:

-Has shown signs of a lack of motivation in the past by underestimating opponents;
-Has been at the top of the mountain for such a long time, leaving plenty of footage that future opponents can study;
-Relies so heavily on his length and faces a true 205 pounder with a physique that matches his own.

I actually think Reyes could very well be the first man to beat Jones, seriously. And that's not entirely based on whether Reyes is a capable fighter or not.

Almost certainly Jones will lose to somebody nobody expects him to. He’s been so dominant for so long, he’s going to be heavily favored against anybody. And I believe he will lose eventually, everybody does if they stick around long enough. Will Reyes be the man to do it? I wouldn’t say so but who knows?

 

[RiotWyatt]

Most people who say Reyes is unimpressive and has no chance are the same ones saying Walker was the next GOAT and could KTFO Jones.

 

[FrontNakedChoke]

I don't get the hype, even when he looks good in fights it looks more like his opponents incompetence. People point to his "pin point accuracy" but in almost every case I saw, he was countering against an opponent who overextended. Jon just doesn't overextend. Weidman is also clearly shot... A lot of people on here are thinking he will take rounds from Jon. I don't see that at all, I actually think he will be an easy fight for Jones. No shit talk, I just don't think he's the guy to do it.

Agreed but didn't you die? @George Carlin

 

[Medulla Omoplata]

Educated post by someone who actually understands striking. Unlike OP.

Reyes is a really good striker. So much so, that Volkan felt the need to grapple him to win.

Thanks but I think you're too harsh on OP.
He posted just above that he just doesn't see Jones giving Reyes those countering opportunities and TBH I agree.

The one wrinkle might be if Reyes and his team can pick out some of Jon's go tos and dial in some counters specifically for Jones.
For example we all know Jones is likely going to rely heavily on his oblique kicks. If Reyes can get the timing on those maybe he and his team can set up some specific counters for those. Reyes has the technique and the crisp countering to execute.

That's always the issue when your the top dog. Everyone has studied you, everyone knows your tricks. Every fight gets harder and harder.

I'm still not saying this is likely. I'm just trying to build a hopeful narrative.

This is all assuming Jones just comes in with his typical gameplan of late.
If he goes back to clinching and wrestling then this should be a wrap.

 

[USA!USA!]

I don't get the hype, even when he looks good in fights it looks more like his opponents incompetence. People point to his "pin point accuracy" but in almost every case I saw, he was countering against an opponent who overextended. Jon just doesn't overextend. Weidman is also clearly shot... A lot of people on here are thinking he will take rounds from Jon. I don't see that at all, I actually think he will be an easy fight for Jones. No shit talk, I just don't think he's the guy to do it.

The point is Bones ran out of opponents lol

 

[Streeter]

Unless Reyes wins early he had little to no shot. Theres not 1 area that Jones isnt bettef

 

[DoopidyDawesome]

I don't see it either. I think Jones toys with guys like Reyes.

 

[RiotWyatt]

Thanks but I think you're too harsh on OP.
He posted just above that he just doesn't see Jones giving Reyes those countering opportunities and TBH I agree.

The one wrinkle might be if Reyes and his team can pick out some of Jon's go tos and dial in some counters specifically for Jones.
For example we all know Jones is likely going to rely heavily on his oblique kicks. If Reyes can get the timing on those maybe he and his team can set up some specific counters for those. Reyes has the technique and the crisp countering to execute.

That's always the issue when your the top dog. Everyone has studied you, everyone knows your tricks. Every fight gets harder and harder.

I'm still not saying this is likely. I'm just trying to build a hopeful narrative.

Yes, he is right in saying that Jones won't give him the same opportunities but he is wrong in the notion that those opportunities were "given" to Reyes.

Reyes is a really good striker, who sets up angles and causes his opponents to get out of position. He creates those opportunities. They're not given.

What that also tells me is that Reyes has a really good striking coach. Some things in striking come naturally but that kind of strategic movement is most certainly taught.

What would win this fight for Reyes is what his coach can utilize and exploit.

 

[Medulla Omoplata]

Yes, he is right in saying that Jones won't give him the same opportunities but he is wrong in the notion that those opportunities were "given" to Reyes.

Reyes is a really good striker, who sets up angles and causes his opponents to get out of position. He creates those opportunities. They're not given.

What that also tells me is that Reyes has a really good striking coach. Some things in striking come naturally but that kind of strategic movement is most certainly taught.

What would win this fight for Reyes is what his coach can utilize and exploit.

Agreed. But for every Garbrandt/Cruz rise to the occasion there's a dozen Jones/Smith blowouts.

 

[Benoitthegr8]

Reyes seems to thrive in the chaos of engagement, he finds guys chins while getting peppered, seems really proficient at connecting at the end of his punches. If Jon gets into his groove and starts throwing spinning shit the opportunities will be there for Reyes to catch him.

I get the feeling we see Jon pull out the entire arsenal in this one, Jones knows people are starting to doubt him, I think we see him using his wrestling and GNP. It’s honestly a hard call, we just don’t know how much pulsing had to do with Jon’s great run, he has looked very unimpressive his last few outings compared to earlier in his reign.

 

[Willek]

He lost to Volkan. But anyone who beats Weidman will always be a favorite of mine.

 

[airic_15]

he has some nice leg kicks and isnt scared to stay in the pocket and counter, i think he has a shot