Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V8

[Lead]

@Lead This one's void now with Trudea humiliated and kicked out of Canadian politics.

There isn’t any provision about Trudeau stepping done making the bet void. If @Err agree to void it, it can be voided as the participants can agree to void a pending bet.

 

[Lead]

I got a new one though:

1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon.

Either the Liberals or Conservatives will win a majority in the upcoming Canadian Federal Election.

2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
@ImCertainOfCirkunov for the liberals
@ColemanwastheGOAT for the conservatives

3. The date the bet will be decided (this can become tentative based of the officiators call)
The day after the upcoming Canadian Federal Election.


4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
Avatar bet.

5. The duration of the reward/punishment
1 month.

6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 2.
Bet void if neither party wins a majority.

@Lead

Are there more than two parties that normally win seats in Canadian elections? If so, what’s the more official name for the Liberals and Conservatives party?

 

[HereticBD]

Are there more than two parties that normally win seats in Canadian elections? If so, what’s the more official name for the Liberals and Conservatives party?

Well, the Liberal party is literally the "Liberal Party". The conservatives are the "Progressive Conservative Party of Canada", or PCP(yes, seriously) for short. Then you got the hard lefties with the NDP, and then you got the "Green Party", which is just a bunch of environmentalists that have like 2 seats. And then there's the province of Quebec that operates like their own fucking country, with the "Bloc Quebecois" that nobody but Quebec really likes, but is magically given stupidly disproportionate amounts of seats and power. They're basically the party that fucks everything up for the rest.

 

[Deleted member 592570]

Are there more than two parties that normally win seats in Canadian elections? If so, what’s the more official name for the Liberals and Conservatives party?

There's the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois but neither has a chance to win.

The parties are called the Liberal Party of Canada and the Conservative Party of Canada.

 

[Deleted member 592570]

Well, the Liberal party is literally the "Liberal Party". The conservatives are the "Progressive Conservative Party of Canada", or PCP(yes, seriously) for short. Then you got the hard lefties with the NDP, and then you got the "Green Party", which is just a bunch of environmentalists that have like 2 seats. And then there's the province of Quebec that operates like their own fucking country, with the "Bloc Quebecois" that nobody but Quebec really likes, but is magically given stupidly disproportionate amounts of seats and power. They're basically the party that fucks everything up for the rest.

I thought they dropped the 'Progressive'

 

[Deleted member 592570]

There isn’t any provision about Trudeau stepping done making the bet void. If @Err agree to void it, it can be voided as the participants can agree to void a pending bet.

Oh OK. Then it's up to @Err then.

 

[HereticBD]

I thought they dropped the 'Progressive'

Nah. They rarely ever call themselves by the official title. It's usually just "PC's". At least I think so. I don't keep up too much with these matters.

 

[Lead]

Didn’t see these replies. Will try to get it wrapped up today

 

[Rob Battisti]

@Rod1 I still haven’t forgotten

 

[Mr Holmes]

Still waiting on all of those that are saying Blimf will ship Americans off to El Salvador prison camps to accept my challenge.

 

[Rob Battisti]

@Rod1 I still haven’t forgotten

Still waiting on all of those that are saying Blimf will ship Americans off to El Salvador prison camps to accept my challenge.

”How do you know he didn’t already!?”

 

[HockeyBjj]

How about will Q4 have 4% growth or better, with significant manufacturing increases? That being a better indication to me of the economy

How's this look as a source for Q4 yoy? They get their source from GDP from Bureau of Economic analysis

US Real GDP YoY (Quarterly) - United States - Historical Da…

View quarterly updates and historical trends for US Real GDP YoY. from United States. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Track economic data with YChart…

ycharts.com

ISM looks to be a reliable source for manufacturing data that investors use. They've got charts here where 50% looks to be their breakeven point, and 42% is their line for if economy is stagnant (below would be recession indicator). So if that's the line for negative, 58% might be the line for significant increase? 2021 had an average of 60.7 for reference as the economy came back after the 2020 that shall not be named.

They go month to month tho not quarterly so we could just average Oct/Nov/Dec numbers? You can see a few years history of that manufacturing PMI number on the first page. What value would signify "significant manufacturing increase" to you?

Example from March-

https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/t4rf202503pmi.pdf

 

[cottagecheesefan]

How's this look as a source for Q4 yoy? They get their source from GDP from Bureau of Economic analysis

US Real GDP YoY (Quarterly) - United States - Historical Da…

View quarterly updates and historical trends for US Real GDP YoY. from United States. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Track economic data with YChart…

ycharts.com

ISM looks to be a reliable source for manufacturing data that investors use. They've got charts here where 50% looks to be their breakeven point, and 42% is their line for if economy is stagnant (below would be recession indicator). So if that's the line for negative, 58% might be the line for significant increase? 2021 had an average of 60.7 for reference as the economy came back after the 2020 that shall not be named.

They go month to month tho not quarterly so we could just average Oct/Nov/Dec numbers? You can see a few years history of that manufacturing PMI number on the first page. What value would signify "significant manufacturing increase" to you?

Example from March-

https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/t4rf202503pmi.pdf

I’ll check it out when I get home

 

[cottagecheesefan]

How's this look as a source for Q4 yoy? They get their source from GDP from Bureau of Economic analysis

US Real GDP YoY (Quarterly) - United States - Historical Da…

View quarterly updates and historical trends for US Real GDP YoY. from United States. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Track economic data with YChart…

ycharts.com

ISM looks to be a reliable source for manufacturing data that investors use. They've got charts here where 50% looks to be their breakeven point, and 42% is their line for if economy is stagnant (below would be recession indicator). So if that's the line for negative, 58% might be the line for significant increase? 2021 had an average of 60.7 for reference as the economy came back after the 2020 that shall not be named.

They go month to month tho not quarterly so we could just average Oct/Nov/Dec numbers? You can see a few years history of that manufacturing PMI number on the first page. What value would signify "significant manufacturing increase" to you?

Example from March-

https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/t4rf202503pmi.pdf

How about a simple q4 growth of, and I’ll raise what I said to 5%. Otherwise we kind of going off the rails with multiple metrics and adding in various interpretation.

And I feel the tariffs while lead to substantial growth because every factory brought back adds multiple fast food chains, etc.

That is basically the bottom line of the argument I feel, no?

 

[HockeyBjj]

How about a simple q4 growth of, and I’ll raise what I said to 5%. Otherwise we kind of going off the rails with multiple metrics and adding in various interpretation.

And I feel the tariffs while lead to substantial growth because every factory brought back adds multiple fast food chains, etc.

That is basically the bottom line of the argument I feel, no?

Yeah. I was trying to keep it with your initial about finding manufacturing data but theta does go off the rails. GDP as a whole sounds good.

1. Q4 real GDP growth year over year will be 5%
2. @cottagecheesefan for, HockeyBjj against
4. Av bet, 2 months
5. Bet settled in January or February, whenever the real gdp report comes out for Q4.
6 no voids. This is intended to weigh the effects of the April tarrifs, but trying to discern exact reasons of gdp growth or lack is too subjective
7 @Lead would be arbitrator as I thinks he’s a smart a fair dude if you agree.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Yeah. I was trying to keep it with your initial about finding manufacturing data but theta does go off the rails. GDP as a whole sounds good.

1. Q4 real GDP growth year over year will be 5%
2. @cottagecheesefan for, HockeyBjj against
4. Av bet, 2 months
5. Bet settled in January or February, whenever the real gdp report comes out for Q4.
6 no voids. This is intended to weigh the effects of the April tarrifs, but trying to discern exact reasons of gdp growth or lack is too subjective
7 @Lead would be arbitrator as I thinks he’s a smart a fair dude if you agree.

Looks good to me

 

[HockeyBjj]

Looks good to me

@Lead we look good

 

[Rob Battisti]

@Rational Poster

6 month AV bet

Bitcoin will have a higher percentage increase from Nov. 6 2024 to July 1, 2025(H1) than the average of the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq.

 

[Rob Battisti]

 

[Rational Poster]

@Rational Poster

6 month AV bet

Bitcoin will have a higher percentage increase from Nov. 6 2024 to July 1, 2025(H1) than the average of the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq.

Oh, no thanks, I don't bet.