Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V8

[Lead]

Disclaimer:
-This thread is meant to serve as a public record of wagers between posters to be settled by an assigned arbitrator. A poster is only held to their honor of upholding their end of the bargain and could possibly not honor the bet punishment. The result of this will only come into play in the rankings system (explained below) and the public ridicule that may follow.

The Rules:
-Bet types are limited to name, avatar, and/or signature. Other proposals can be made but likely won't be considered in the ranking system. No account/e-suicide bets as silencing part of the community isn't very WR like. This is suppose to be something fun but not fatal for our regulars here. No cash bets as the site doesn't want to host that.

How to Make and Finalize a Bet
When coming in here, please propose your wager to the other poster involved and tag @Lead so the progress can be tracked. Bets cannot be finalized until they are formatted in this manner:
1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided (this can become tentative based of the officiators call)
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment
6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
7 (OPTIONAL) The arbiter (see list below) the posters agree to call the bet. The default would be @Lead if no one else is selected
I will get both posters to quote and agree to the formatted bet before making it official. At that point, the bet is live and cannot be undone unless both parties agree to drop it and let me know. I will make sure both parties are certain anytime something like that is done.
At the time a bet is expected to be called, the posters involved are expected to sort it out first and see if they agree to who won/lost. If there is a disagreement to who won/lost the bet, the moderator(s) selected for the bet can make the call. If it's multiple moderators, majority decision decides the winner and likely will be discussed privately via PM.
-Once the bet is decided, the bet will be closed and officially counted towards the public records/rankings

This is is the list of WR moderator (if they accept upfront) in #7, they will judge the bet at hand in the event you don't want Lead as the judge:
Madmick, Zankou, Ruprecht, panamaican, irish_thug, Khabib Khanate
Requirements
-Both posters involved in the bet must have either an account that's been around over 1 year or over 1000 posts. A poster previously registered in a WR Election can automatically qualify as well. Exceptions can be given but shouldn't be expected.
-If at any time, a poster is overextended with open bets, future bets can be rejected until the result. Posters can ask me at any time whether this is the case to avoid finding out as they are trying to make a new bet.
Rankings/Records
-Records will be maintained as bets are called. Rankings will have the most accurate information but I will attempt to have information between threads about informal current records in between threads.
-With every ten bets that are decided (not including null/draws), a new thread will be made with updated rankings.
-The rankings will include a champion based on who has the highest score based on the bets previously officiated through this thread
-The score applied to each poster will be based on ranking in opponent faced, duration of the reward/punishment of bets made, type of bet made (name, av, and/or, sig), and how new/old the resolved bet is. Due to limitations, the longest duration of a bet will be capped at 5 years.
-The poster who is crowned the champ will be considered champ until the time new rankings dethrone them from the top spot. During the time of their reign, their record and score will be accounted for historical perspective and comparisons of each title reign. Please keep in mind that beating the current champ does not dethrone them necessarily or crown yourself as the champ.
-Any accounts that are seen not serving out their name, avatar, and/or signature bet punishment will be assigned an asterisk to their name and removed from future rankings. The asterisk will be removed once the account serves the punishments they promised to honor in the thread but they will only be restored in the rankings once those prior obligated punishments are fulfilled completely. In other words, honor all your bets and you should be fine. Any complaints about another poster not honoring their bet needs to be submitted promptly in the thread for the asterisk against the poster to be considered or the dispute regarding the punishment resolved.

Previous Threads
The War Room Bet Thread
The War Room Bet Thread v2 (10 bets)
The War Room Bet Thread v3 (20 bets)
The War Room Bet Thread v4 (30 bets)
The War Room Bet Thread v5 (40 bets)
The War Room Bet Thread v6 (52 bets)
The War Room Bet Thread v7 (80 bets)

 

[Lead]

Current Rankings (80 bets)
Current rankings reflect currently active (non-banned accounts) and a weighting system of their prior wins (see "Rankings/Records" section) for more information. Those who didn't honor a prior bet are no included on the listing (2). There a 47 total active bettors.
C- @Jack V Savage (14-1)
1- @Rob Battisti (3-1)
2- @HereticBD (4-2)
3- @Hdfi (1-0)
4- @Mack Yancy (2-0)
5- @PolarBearPaulVarelans (1-0)
6- @Lead (4-4)
7- @Prokofievian (1-0)
8- @kenetics (1-0)
9- @ColemanwastheGOAT (2-0)
10- @MMAisGod (1-1)
11T- @GearSolidMetal (1-0)
11T- @Bwagster (1-0)
13- @HUNTERMANIA (1-0)
14- @Quipling (2-1)
15- @IGIT (1-0)
16- @kpt018 (1-0)
17- @Source (1-0)
18- @Hans Gruber (2-0)
18- @Rex Kwon Do (1-0)
20- @sickc0d3r (1-0)

GOAT Rankings (80 Bets)
GOAT Rankings includes all previous bettors and do not weigh against older bets. Banned posters are not allowed to hold the GOAT status. Those who didn't honor a prior bet are no included on the listing (2). There are 70 bettors)
G- @Jack V Savage (14-1)
1- @waiguoren (9-3)
2- @Rob Battisti (3-1)
3- @oleDirtyBast4rd (1-0)
4- @HereticBD (4-2)
5T- @Trotsky (2-0)
5T- @PolarBearPaulVarelans (1-0)
5T- @Amerikuracana (1-0)
8- @Hdfi (1-0)
9- @Mack Yancy (2-0)
10T- @Lead (4-4)
10T- @Prokofievian (1-0)
12- @kenetics (1-0)
13T- @ColemanwastheGOAT (2-0)
13T- @MMAisGod (1-1)
13T- @HUNTERMANIA (1-0)
16T- @GearSolidMetal (1-0)
16T- @Bwagster (1-0)
16T- @IGIT (1-0)
16T- @Space (1-0)
20- @Quipling (2-1)

*Signifies current dispute about serving out a bet punishment. Results in drop from future ranking if not addressed beforehand
WR Bet Champion Lineage (Record during reign)
1st- @Amerikuracana (0-0)
2nd- @Jack V Savage (2-0)
3rd- @waiguoren (1-2)
4th- @Jack V Savage (7-1)

 

[Lead]

Open Bets

#37. @xcvbn vs. @Hunter Simpson v. @Quipling
1. Company A in the (probably) sealed subpoena case that went to SCOTUS is owned by this country:
2. @xcvbn - Israel @Hunter Simpson - Turkey @Quipling - Qatar
4. Avatar
5. 1 month
6. If Company A is not owned by any of the named companies, the bet is null.
7. Other parties may join the betting pool if they select an unnamed country and current participants approve.

---------------

#69. @Jack V Savage v. @Rob Battisti
1. Bitcoin will surpass 115,000 in price on or before 12/31/2025 EST
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @Jack V Savage - Against
3. Tentatively 1/1/2026 or before depending if it surpasses 115,000
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price. The chart will need to show 115,000.00+ on or before 12/31/2025. If either of you see this happen, you can notify me to call the bet once verified (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD)

 

[Lead]

Closed Bets

Spoiler

#10 @VivaRevolution v. @Jack V Savage
1. Trump will be at 33% or more with Bovada's betting odds
2. VivaRevolution- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 11/07/16 8:00PM ESt
4. Signature bet
5. 11/08/16-12/07/16
*I will use this site to convert the betting odds to percentages http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/'
Winner: Jack V Savage

#1 @Fawlty v. @Tropodan (Onesided)
1. Donald Trump wins general election
2. Tropodan, for. Fawlty, against.
3. 11/08/2016
4. If Trump wins the general election, Fawlty wears av of Tropodan's choosing. Freeroll (no punishment if Tropodan loses).
5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017
Winner: Tropodan

#4 @Space v. @Lead
1. Donald Trump wins the general election
2. Space- for, Lead- against
3. 11/08/2016
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017 (Election day to Inauguration day)
Winner: Space

#7 @Quipling v. @Rex Kwon Do
1. Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election
2. Quipling : Hillary - Rex :Trump
3. 11/08/16
4. Av Bet- Loser of the bet changes his av to a suitably presidential picture of the winning candidate
5.11/09/16- 12/09/16
Winner: Rex Kwon Do

#9 @m52nickerson v @Hans Gruber
1. The winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes.
2. @m52nickerson - Clinton will win, @Hans Gruber - Trump will win.
3. 11/08/16 (tentatively)
Winner: Hans Gruber

#12 @Limbo Pete v. @Lead
1. Who wins Nevada and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential Election
2. Limbo Pete- Nevada Trump/ Colorado Clinton, Lead- Colorado Trump / Nevada Clinton
3. 11/09/2016
4. Signature bet
5. 01/21/2017-02/21/2017
6. Obviously if both states go Clinton or Trump, the bet is null
Null

#13 @Hans Gruber v. @Lead
1. Trump will win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania in the 2016 Presidential election
2. Hans - For, Lead- Against
3. 11/09/2016
4. Avatar bet
5. 11/9/2016-12/9/2016
Winner: Hans Gruber

#14 @BKMMAFAN v. @Amerikuracana
1. Who wins Michigan in the 2016 Presidential Election?
2. BKMMAFAN- Clinton, Amerikuracana- Trump
3. 11/8/16 (tentatively)
4. Signature and Avatar Bet
5. 3 months, likely 11/09/16-2/09/16
Winner: Amerikuracana

#2 @waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016
Winner: waiguoren

#5 @Concurrent GOAT v. @Rex Kwon Do
1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in US Pres. election popular vote
2. Concurrent GOAT 0.1% to 2.0% Rex Kwon Doh 2.0%+
3. 11/08/16
4. Avatar bet- Winner picks the losers av
5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
Null

__________________________________________________________________
#6 @KnightTemplar v. @Rex Kwon Do
1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in the US Pres. election popular vote
2. @KnightTemplar 0.1% to 2.0% @Rex Kwon Do 2.0%+
3. 11/08/16
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature; signature chosen must be quote praising Adolf Hitler, Fuhrer of Germany OR a quote by Adolf Hitler himself
5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
Null

#8 @waiguoren v. @cooks1
1. National Popular vote margin with Clinton/Trump will be b>
2. Waiguoren- For Cooks1- Against
3. 1/21/16 (Day after inauguration day)
4. Signature Bet
5. 01/21/16 to next US Presidential election day
6. If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote
Winner: waiguoren

#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage

#3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017
Winner: Jack V Savage

#18 @SidJustice v. @waiguoren
1. Neil Gorsuch will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court on or before 4/7/2017
2. SidJustice: Agree/ waiguoren: Disagree
3. 4/8/2017
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
Winnner: waiguoren

#15 @Jack V Savage vs. @drstrangelov
1. Trump's favorability rating Real Clear Politics average is 51.8 before Labor Day
2. drstanglov- For, Jack V Savage- against
3. 09/04/2017 (Labor Day)
4. Hybrid- Jack's avatar or Drstranglovs sig
5. 1 month (tentatively 09/04/17-10/03/17)
6. Attempted or successful assassination of Trump or attack by foreign government or there is pending or concluded vote on authorization for military action before his rating goes up, the bet is null
Winner: Jack V Savage

#20. @Fawlty v. @HomerThompson
1. Flynn, Stone, Manafort, Page, Kushner, Don Jr, Eric, President Trump, Ivanka, Sessions, DeVos, Preibus, Ryan, Pruitt, Pompeo, Bannon, or Perry will be formally criminally indicted by 23:59 EST 15 June 2018
2. @HomerThompson- 2 or more indicted, @Fawlty- 1 will be indicted, Tie- 0 are indicted
3. 06/15/18
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
Winner: HomerThompson

#22. @Quipling v. @N13
1. Moore or Jones will be sworn in as Senator
2. Quipling- Jones, @N13- Moore
3. When either person is sworn in as Senator
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Winner: Quipling

#23. @Lead v. @N13
1. Moore or Jones will be sworn in as Senator
2. @Lead- Jones, @N13- Moore
3. When either person is sworn in as Senator
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Winner: Lead

#19. @waiguoren v. @konagold
1. President Donald Trump resigns or is impeached on or before June 2, 2018
2. @konagold - for @waiguoren- against
3. 06/09/2018
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year (est 6/9/18-6/8/19)
Winner: waiguoren
______________________________________________________________________

 

[Lead]

Closed Bets (Continued)

Spoiler

#32. @Lead v. @JamesRussler
1. Democrats will win 209 seats or more in the 2018 Midterm Election
2. Lead- for, JamesRussler- against
3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
*Party seats are determined by who caucuses with a party if there are independent candidates that win.
Winner: Lead

#27. @HomerThompson v. @JamesRussler
1 & 2. 2018 Midterm Election results- James wins if (1) Republicans retain at least 218 seats in the House and (2) gain net 9 seats in the Senate (i.e. 60 seats total). Homer wins if (1) Democrats reach 218 seats or more in the House and (2) lose under 8 seats in the Senate.
3. 11/07/2018 (tentative, races could take longer to call)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months (tentatively 11/07/18-01/06/19)
6. In the situation, neither of the two events happen, the bet is null
Winner: HomerThompson

#38. @SBJJ v. @GOATER
1. Beto O'Rourke wins Texas in the 2018 midterms
2. GOATER- for, SBJJ- against
3. 11/07/2018 (tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
Winner: SBJJ

#37. @waiguoren v. @Jack V Savage
1. Democrat Katie Hill will defeat Republican Steve Knight in the 2018 House of Representatives race for California's 25th Congressional district.
2. Jack V Savage for, waiguoren against
3. When the California Secretary of State certifies the results of the 2018 Congressional elections.
4. Sig bet
5. 3 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

#33. @44nutman v. @HereticBD
1. Trump being charged with Money Laundering by Jan 1st, 2019
2. @44nutman for, @HereticBD against
3. 01/01/2019
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Winner: HereticBD

#35. @waiguoren v. @Pelosi2016
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year
Winner: waiguroen

#30. @Jack V Savage v. @SBJJ
1. Commerce Department's second estimate for 2018 Real GDP growth will be 2.90% or lower
2. Jack V- For, SBJJ- Against
3. Tentatively 02/28/19
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6. We will be able to pull the result from here: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm
Winner: Jack V Savage

#29. @waiguoren v. @PolishHeadlock
1. The Mueller investigation will indict Trump and accuse Trump of committing a crime to EITHER
a) cooperate with / help Russia carry out the DNC/DCCC/Clinton office hack
OR
b) offer Russia concessions (policy, money, etc) in exchange for the fruits of one of the hacks above
2. PolishHeadlock- for, waiguoren- against
3. When the Mueller investigation concludes
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. Null if Mueller is fired or Trump unexpectedly passes
*Lead, Zankou, and panamaican will make the call on the bet when the investigation concludes.
Winner: waiguoren

#17 @waiguoren v. @rj144
1. Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election
2. Waiguoren- for rj144- against
3. 11/04/2020
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Bet is null if Trump doesn't run in 2020 or pulls out of race regardless of the reason why
Cancelled

#39. @JamesRussler v. @Lowmanproblems
1. Within 6 months, DOJ will announce indictments for ANY of Comey, Strzok, McCabe, Ohr, Page, Yates, Lynch, Obama, Brennan, Clapper, or other government officials of the “Russia Collusion” investigation
2. For- JamesRussler, Against- Lowmanproblems
3. 10/16/19
4. Avatar bet (specific avs dealing with candidate choice)
5. 3 months
6a. If lowman loses, the avatar is Trump with MAGA hat, If JamesRussler loses, the avatar is a candidate of Lowman's choice.
6b. Due to the language of the bet, the bet winner will only be decided if both participants agree who won. In the event they disagree who won, the bet will be null.
Winner: lowmanproblems

#31. @waiguoren v. @andnowweknow
1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team for Trump/Russia coordination/collusion/conspiracy.
2. andnowweknow- for, waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months
6. The conviction needs to be for coordination/collusion/conspiracy between Trump/Russia. For example: treason, conspiracy to defraud the USA, or conspiracy to commit an offense against the USA by coordinating with the Russian state would all give the win to andnowweknow. Tax fraud as in the Manafort case would not count. Perjury would not count. If Stone signs a plea agreement for any reason, the bet is a push.
*Lead also reserves the right to have participants add two additional mods to decide who won if it's contested.
Winner: waiguoren
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#16 @Lead v. @HUNTERMANIA
1. Trump will be impeached during his first term as President
2. HUNTERMANIA- for , Lead- against
3. End of Trump's term or if he is impeached beforehand
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6. If Trump is removed from office from illness, death, or assassination, the bet will be null
Winner: HUNTERMANIA

#21. @HomerThompson v @oleDirtyBast4rd
1. Trump is removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019
2. HomerThompson- for, oleDirtyBast4rd- against
3. 01/01/2020
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Death and physical illness would result in a null bet. Mental illness and subsequent removal would count.
Winner: oleDirtyBast4rd

#24. @HomerThompson v @Lead
1. Trump is removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019
2. HomerThompson- for, Lead- against
3. 01/01/2020
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
6. Death and physical illness would result in a null bet. Mental illness and subsequent removal would count.
Winner: Lead

#25. @waiguoren v @HomerThompson
1. Trump is removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019
2. HomerThompson- for, waiguoren- against
3. 01/01/2020
4. Sig bet
5. 6 months
6. Death and physical illness would result in a null bet. Mental illness and subsequent removal would count.
Winner: waiguoren

#28. @HomerThompson v. @IGIT
1. Within 18 months of Trump's new justice being appointed, the supreme court will allow individual states to outlaw abortion.
2. HomerThompson - For, IGIT - Against
3. Tentatively 18 months once the Trump justice is confirmed (04/06/2020)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months
6. If Trump isn't able to get an appointee confirmed, the bet is null
Winner: IGIT

#36. @waiguoren v. @Trotsky
1. Michael Avenatti or Cory Booker will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
2. waiguoren: Avenatti, Trotsky: Cory Booker
3. The day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Name bet
5. 1 year
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet is a push.
Null

#40. @waiguoren v. @PolarBearPaulVarelans
1. Bernard Sanders or Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president.
2. PolarBear- Biden, waiguoren- Sanders
3. The day of 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 2 Months
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet will be a push.
Winner: PolarBearPaulVarelans

#42. @waiguoren v. @HereticBD
1. Joseph Biden will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
2. @waiguoren- against @HereticBD -for
3. 2020 Democratic National Convention (Tentatively 7/16/20)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
Winner: HereticBD

#46. @Rockapotomuss v. @Jack V Savage
1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate/super delegate votes on a single ballot at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Rockapotomuss : for, @Jack V Savage : against
3. Tentatively 07/16/2020 or when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC (whichever comes first)
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

#38. @VivaRevolution v. @Yorkist
1. Donald Trump will lose in the Republican primary or not run for a second term.
2. VivaRevolution- for, Yorkist- against
3. Tentative (if Trump announces he isn't running or when a Republican nomination is secured)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Winner: Yorkist
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#55. @Jack V Savage v. @MMAisGod
1. Donald Trump or Joe Biden will pull out of one of the 2020 Presidential debates
2. @Jack V Savage - Donald Trump, @MMAisGod - Joe Biden
3. If either candidate pulls out or once all the debates have completed
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6. If neither candidate pulls out, the bet is null
Winner: Jack V Savage

#51. @HockeyBjj v. @kpt018
1. Donald Trump will have a 3rd SCOTUS nominee confirmed by the Senate
2. @kpt018- for, @HockeyBjj- against
3. Tentatively on or before 01/20/2020
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
6a. If Trump wins the 2020 general election and a nominee hasn't been confirmed, the bet is null.
6b. The punishment will not overlap with the punishment for the WR fantasy football league and will be served after that one is satisfied, if necessary.
Winner: kpt018

#26. @HereticBD v. @VivaRevolution
1. Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Presidential Election
2. VivaRevolution- for, HereticBD- against
3. 11/04/2020
4. Avatar & Signature bet
5. HereticBD win=Viva's Av/Sig for 1 month; Viva win= HereticBD Av/Sig for 1 year
Winner: HereticBD

#45. @HockeyBjj v. @PolishHeadlock2
1. Tulsi Gabbard will be on at least one state ballot for the 2020 presidential election as a third party candidate
2. @PolishHeadlock2 - for, @HockeyBjj- against
3. 11/07/2020
4. Avatar bet
5. 2 months
6. Write in votes do not count as being on the ballot
Winner: HockeyBJJ

#52. @Jack V Savage v @giusti825
1. The winner of the 2020 Presidential Election Popular Vote will be _________
2. @Jack V Savage - Biden @giusti825 - Trump
3. 11/03/2020 (Tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

#41. @Yorkist v. @Serenity Now
1. Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election
2. Yorkist- for, Serenity Now- against
3. 11/04/2020 (tentative)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Winner: Serenity Now

#34. @VivaRevolution v. @Rob Battisti
1. Trump will win the 2020 presidential election
2. Rob Battisti- For, VivaRevolution- against
3. 11/7/2020 (tentatively)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
Winner: VivaRevolution

 

[Lead]

Closed Bets (Continued)

Spoiler

#44. @Cunningham v. @waiguoren
1. Donald Trump will win the 2020 election for president.
2. @waiguoren - against @Cunningham - for
3. November 9, 2020
4. Sig and av bet
5. 1 year
6. The bet is only valid if Peter Buttigieg or Bernard Sanders is the Democratic nominee for president on election day 2020. If Trump doesn't run for whatever reason, bet is void.
Null

#49. @Prokofievian v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will win the 2020 election by a margin of at least 78 or more electoral votes.
2. @Richie Madano - For, @Prokofievian - Against
3. 11/04/2020 tentatively (Election day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
6a. If Trump isn’t on the ballot for 2020, the bet is null.
6b. We will assume there are no rogue electoral votes and they will vote as assigned by their state.
6c. If Election Day is moved to a later date, the bet is null unless the participants have it re-approved.
6d. The margin above is based on the opposing candidate that receives the 2nd most electoral votes in the event Trump wins.
Winner: Prokofievian

#56. @Tropodan v. @Jack V Savage
1. Donald Trump will have a better margin with both the electoral vote (77+) and popular vote (-2,868,686) in the 2020 presidential election compared to the 2016 presidential election.
2. @Tropodan - For, @Jack V Savage - Against
3. 11/3/2020 (tentative)
4. Avatar bet
5. 2 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

#47. @sickc0d3r v @HereticBD
1. Donald Trump will not be elected for a second term in the 2020 presidential election
2. sickc0d3r- for, HereticBD- against
3. 11/04/2020 (tentatively based on when results come in)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
Winner: sickc0d3r

#50. @Jack V Savage v @HereticBD
1. The winner of the 2020 presidential election will be ________
2. @Jack V Savage - Joe Biden @HereticBD - Donald Trump
3. 11/03/2020 (Tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months
6. The bet will be settled when any of the three main networks (NBC, ABC, CBS) call a winner of the election as this will be assumed as the eventual official winner.
Winner: Jack V Savage
————————————————————

#53. @SATW v. @Quipling
1. Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election
2. @SATW- For @Quipling Against
3. 11/3/2020 (tentatively)
4. Avatar bet if @Quipling win; Nothing if SATW wins (Free roll)
5. 1 month
Winner: Quipling

#48. @HockeyBjj v. @kenetics
1. Bitcoin will hit 20k US Dollars on or before April 24th 2021
2. @kenetics for, @HockeyBjj against
3. 04/24/2021 or if Bitcoin hits 20k before then
4. Avatar bet
5. 2 months
6. Price determined by “Morningstar for currency and coinbase for crypto currency”. That’s what google uses when you simply google “Bitcoin price”
Winner: kenetics

#54. @Oceanmachine v. @Fawlty
1. The GOP will increase their Senate seats (from 53) in the 2020 election
2. @Oceanmachine For @Fawlty Against
3. 11/3/2020 (tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
Winner: Fawlty

#59. @Oceanmachine v. @MMAisGod
1. Trump will win the 2020 presidential election with at least 2 out of 3 of the following states: Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota
2. @Oceanmachine - for @MMAisGod - against
3. 11/3/2020 (tentatively)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
Winner: MMAisGod

#57. @Trotsky v. @HeirApparent
1. Donald Trump will be over or under 300.5 Electoral College votes for the 2020 presidential election
2. @Trotsky - under @HeirApparent - over
3. 11/3/2020 (Tentatively)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
Winner: Trotsky

#58. @Trotsky v @second sight
1. Who will win at least 270 electoral college votes in the 2020 presidential election?
2. @Trotsky - Biden, @second sight - Trump
3. 11/3/2020 (tentatively)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
Winner: Trotsky

#46. @Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Or Signature Bet (Winners choice)
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null
Winner: Crazy Diamond (Andy Cap)

#60. @Jack V Savage v. @The ScorpioN
1. Joe Biden will last at least one year in office as President
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @The ScorpioN - against
3. 1/20/2022
4. Signature Bet
5. 3 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

#62. @Jack V Savage v. @Rob Battisti
1. CPI will under 5% from May 2021 - May 2022
2. @Jack V Savage - For, @Rob Battisti - Against
3. Tentatively 6/1/2022 or when BLS releases the final month of May 2022
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
6. For clarity in determining the answer, I will grab the value from first column in the table on this page labeled "All items". For reference, we already know that May 2021 is at 5.0%. Those 13 numbers from May 2021 to May 2022 will be added together and then divided by 13 to get our answer. If it is below 5%, Jack would win. If it is 5% over higher, Rob would win. I will not round the calculation so if it's 4.5% or 4.95% for example, Jack would win.
Site being referenced: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
Winner: Rob Battisti
#63. @Lead v. @cottagecheesefan
1. Doug Mastriano will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Governor election.
2. @cottagecheesefan: for / @Lead: against
3. 11/08/2022 (tentative to when the race is called, arbiter can make the determination how long to wait in the event the results are close and/ or delayed)
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 3 months
6. This bet relates to the official result of the election. Regardless of court challenges, fraud and/ or rigging claims, the final result of the election is what will be honored and we won’t hold the bet open indefinitely on the possibility that one day it could be overturned.
7. @HockeyBjj
Winner: Lead

—————————————————-

#61. @Jack V Savage v. @Diogenes of Sinope
1. Joe Biden will last at least two years in office as President
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @Diogenes of Sinope - against
3. 1/20/2023
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

#67. @HockeyBjj v. @Jack V Savage
1. December 2023 Inflation as measured by unadjusted, CPI 12 month index will be below 5.50%
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @HockeyBjj - against
3. Tentatively 1/18/24 (whenever the initial report is issued)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6. This will be the initial reported number for December 2023 from the BLS. For reference, this link shows the January 2023 number at 6.4%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Winner: Jack V Savage

#71.
@ColemanwastheGOAT v. @CatchnShoot
1. The winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary will be:
2. @CatchnShoot : Nikki Haley / @ColemanwastheGOAT : Donald Trump
3. Tentatively 01/23/24
4. Avatar bet
5. 14 days
Winner: ColemanwastheGOAT

#64. @Lowmanproblems v. @Rob Battisti
1. Bitcoin will surpass 50,000 in price on or before 12/31/2024 EST
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @Lowmanproblems - Against
3. Tentatively 1/1/2025 or before depending if it surpasses 50,000
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price. The chart will need to show 50,000.00+ on or before 12/31/2024. If either of you see this happen, you can notify me to call the bet once verified (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD)
6b. A gentlemen's agreement is noted that the loser will do a hiatus from Sherdog War Room posting. 1 month if lowmanproblems loses, 2 months if Rob Battisti loses.
Winner: Rob Battisti

#43. @bobgeese v. @waiguoren
1. Nikki Haley will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. @waiguoren - against @bobgeese - for
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
Winner: waiguoren

#66. @HereticBD v. @Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. @HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null
7. @Lead, @Lowmanproblems, @HockeyBjj (Majority decides the bet with the hopes that it will be unanimous upon deliberation)
Winner: HereticBD

#74. @Lead v @GearSolidMetal
1. Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election on Election Day
2. Lead - Yes, GearSolidMetal - No
3. 11/5/24 (Election Day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 months
6. This bet is on whether Biden will drop out of the race before Election Day. GearSolidMetal can win on any condition causing him to drop out including health, losing at the convention, or a new nominee being selected by the DNC post-convention. If Biden is the nominee on Election Day, Lead wins.
7. Arbiter - @HockeyBjj
Winner: GearSolidMetal

#68. @Andy Capp v @Hdfi
1. Donald Trump will win the 2024 Presidential Election
2. @Hdfi - for, @Andy Capp - against
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
Winner: Hdfi

#72. @Andy Capp v. @Source
1. If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, he will win the 2024 Presidential Election
2. @Source - for, @Andy Capp - against
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6a. In the event Trump pass away before the election, the bet is null.
6b. If Trump doesn’t become the GOP nominee, the bet is null.
6c. Any legal issues resulting in Trump being unable to win the General Election will NOT result in a null bet. A new nominee replacing him in the general election would NOT result in a null bet.
Winner: Source

#81. @Helden v. @Barteh
1. Winner of the 2024 Presidential election will be:
2. @Helden - Harris / @Barteh - Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Harris (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination
Winner: Barteh

 

[Lead]

Closed Bets (Continued)

Spoiler

#77. @ColemanwastheGOAT v. @Darkballs
1. Winner of the 2024 Presidential election will be:
2. @ColemanwastheGOAT - Trump / @Darkballs - Harris
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Harris (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination
Winner: ColemanwastheGOAT

#82. @Mack Yancy v. @Paynebringer
1. Winner of the 2024 Presidential election will be:
2. @Paynebringer - Harris / @Mack Yancy - Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Harris (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
Winner: MackYancy

#79. @Helden v. @Mack Yancy
1. Winner of the 2024 Presidential election will be:
2. @Helden - Harris / @Mack Yancy - Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Harris (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination
Winner: MackYancy

#70. @MMAisGod v @Whippy McGee
1. Winner of the 2024 election will be:
2. @MMAisGod - Joe Biden, @Whippy McGee - Donald Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Biden (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination
Null

#73. @ColemanwastheGOAT v. @CatchnShoot
1. Winner of the 2024 Presidential General Election will be:
2. @CatchnShoot - Joe Biden, @ColemanwastheGOAT - Donald Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
Cancelled

#75. @Andy Capp v @Bwagster
1. Donald Trump will win the 2024 Presidential Election
2. @Bwagster - For @Andy Capp - Against
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 Month
Winner: Bwagster

#80. @Rob Battisti v. @Barteh
1. In the 2024 presidential election, Harris will both:
-Win the states Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Oregon
-Win New York by a 10 point or higher margin from Trump
2. @Rob Battisti - for; @Barteh - against
3. 11/5/24 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Harris (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination
6c. For the 10 point margin with New York, no rounding will be done. For example, a 9.99% margin would be a win for Barteh. A 10.000% margin would be a win for Rob (if the other conditions are met). For clarity, margin is being determined by taking each candidates votes divided by total votes and then subtracting Harris’ percentage from Trump’s percentage
Winner: Rob Battisti

#78. @HOLA v. @Kingz
1. Winner of the 2024 Presidential election will be:
2. @HOLA - Harris / @Kingz - Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Harris (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination
Winner: Kingz

#76. @HOLA v. @Rob Battisti
1. Bitcoin will surpass 100,000 USD in price on or before 12/31/2024 EST
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @HOLA - Against
3. Tentatively 1/1/2025 or before depending if it surpasses 100,000 USD
4. Avatar Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price. The chart will need to show 100,000.00+ USD on or before 12/31/2024. If either of you see this happen, you can notify me to call the bet once verified (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD)
Winner: Rob Battisti

#65. @Rob Battisti v. @Jack V Savage
1. Bitcoin will be at or above 50,000.00 on 12/31/2024 UTC
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @Jack V Savage - Against
3. 1/1/2025
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD). The chart will need to show 50,000.00 or higher on 12/31/2024 UTC. The chart allows me to see the price throughout the day so if at any point, it is at or above 50,000.00, Rob Battisti would be the victor.
6b. A gentlemen's agreement is noted that the loser will do a hiatus from Sherdog War Room posting. 1 month if Rob Battisti loses, 2 months if Jack V Savage loses.
Winner: Rob Battisti

 

[Lead]

Reserved

 

[Rob Battisti]

Open Bets

#37. @xcvbn vs. @Hunter Simpson v. @Quipling
1. Company A in the (probably) sealed subpoena case that went to SCOTUS is owned by this country:
2. @xcvbn - Israel @Hunter Simpson - Turkey @Quipling - Qatar
4. Avatar
5. 1 month
6. If Company A is not owned by any of the named companies, the bet is null.
7. Other parties may join the betting pool if they select an unnamed country and current participants approve.

---------------

#65. @Rob Battisti v. @Jack V Savage
1. Bitcoin will be at or above 50,000.00 on 12/31/2024 UTC
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @Jack V Savage - Against
3. 1/1/2025
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD). The chart will need to show 50,000.00 or higher on 12/31/2024 UTC. The chart allows me to see the price throughout the day so if at any point, it is at or above 50,000.00, Rob Battisti would be the victor.
6b. A gentlemen's agreement is noted that the loser will do a hiatus from Sherdog War Room posting. 1 month if Rob Battisti loses, 2 months if Jack V Savage loses.

#69. @Jack V Savage v. @Rob Battisti
1. Bitcoin will surpass 115,000 in price on or before 12/31/2025 EST
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @Jack V Savage - Against
3. Tentatively 1/1/2026 or before depending if it surpasses 115,000
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price. The chart will need to show 115,000.00+ on or before 12/31/2025. If either of you see this happen, you can notify me to call the bet once verified (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD)

#76. @HOLA v. @Rob Battisti
1. Bitcoin will surpass 100,000 USD in price on or before 12/31/2024 EST
2. @Rob Battisti - For, @HOLA - Against
3. Tentatively 1/1/2025 or before depending if it surpasses 100,000 USD
4. Avatar Bet
5. 6 months
6a. Google Finance will be used to verify the price. The chart will need to show 100,000.00+ USD on or before 12/31/2024. If either of you see this happen, you can notify me to call the bet once verified (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD)

I made that Hola bet on a whim as it was his first bet. I never actually thought I’d win. Now I think I have a shot.

 

[Lead]

I made that Hola bet on a whim as it was his first bet. I never actually thought I’d win. Now I think I have a shot.

Was wondering about that as I thought winning all three seemed low. There's almost no open bets are those ones.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Was wondering about that as I thought winning all three seemed low. There's almost no open bets are those ones.

I am 50-50 on the HOLA one.

I was 20-80 when I made it but he was excited to get a bet in.

The Jack ones are beyond locks. It makes me laugh how confident he was.

 

[ColemanwastheGOAT]

Here you go @Darkballs.

 

[Darkballs]

Here you go @Darkballs.

I'm computer illiterate and haven't changed my avatar in 20 years. You mind telling me how? Or better yet, any mod just want to do it for me?

 

[Lead]

I'm computer illiterate and haven't changed my avatar in 20 years. You mind telling me how? Or better yet, any mod just want to do it for me?

Click your name in the top corner where the search bar is. Then click "Account Details". It's in that section.

Tip: Save your current av before switching it out.

 

[Darkballs]

Click your name in the top corner where the search bar is. Then click "Account Details". It's in that section.

Tip: Save your current av before switching it out.

Disregard.

Thanks for the help.

 

[Rob Battisti]

@Jack V Savage locks, huh?

 

[ColemanwastheGOAT]

Click your name in the top corner where the search bar is. Then click "Account Details". It's in that section.

Tip: Save your current av before switching it out.

Why are square avatars getting cropped now? I thought they were supposed to be square?

Nvm just realized you aren't a mod any more

 

[Lead]

Why are square avatars getting cropped now? I thought they were supposed to be square?

Nvm just realized you aren't a mod any more

Even as a mod, I never understood this stuff. I still have trouble posting gifs I like.

 

[ColemanwastheGOAT]

Current Rankings (80 bets)
Current rankings reflect currently active (non-banned accounts) and a weighting system of their prior wins (see "Rankings/Records" section) for more information. Those who didn't honor a prior bet are no included on the listing (2). There a 47 total active bettors.
C- @Jack V Savage (14-1)
1- @Rob Battisti (3-1)
2- @HereticBD (4-2)
3- @Hdfi (1-0)
4- @Mack Yancy (2-0)
5- @PolarBearPaulVarelans (1-0)
6- @Lead (4-4)
7- @Prokofievian (1-0)
8- @kenetics (1-0)
9- @ColemanwastheGOAT (2-0)
10- @MMAisGod (1-1)
11T- @GearSolidMetal (1-0)
11T- @Bwagster (1-0)
13- @HUNTERMANIA (1-0)
14- @Quipling (2-1)
15- @IGIT (1-0)
16- @kpt018 (1-0)
17- @Source (1-0)
18- @Hans Gruber (2-0)
18- @Rex Kwon Do (1-0)
20- @sickc0d3r (1-0)

GOAT Rankings (80 Bets)
GOAT Rankings includes all previous bettors and do not weigh against older bets. Banned posters are not allowed to hold the GOAT status. Those who didn't honor a prior bet are no included on the listing (2). There are 70 bettors)
G- @Jack V Savage (14-1)
1- @waiguoren (9-3)
2- @Rob Battisti (3-1)
3- @oleDirtyBast4rd (1-0)
4- @HereticBD (4-2)
5T- @Trotsky (2-0)
5T- @PolarBearPaulVarelans (1-0)
5T- @Amerikuracana (1-0)
8- @Hdfi (1-0)
9- @Mack Yancy (2-0)
10T- @Lead (4-4)
10T- @Prokofievian (1-0)
12- @kenetics (1-0)
13T- @ColemanwastheGOAT (2-0)
13T- @MMAisGod (1-1)
13T- @HUNTERMANIA (1-0)
16T- @GearSolidMetal (1-0)
16T- @Bwagster (1-0)
16T- @IGIT (1-0)
16T- @Space (1-0)
20- @Quipling (2-1)

*Signifies current dispute about serving out a bet punishment. Results in drop from future ranking if not addressed beforehand
WR Bet Champion Lineage (Record during reign)
1st- @Amerikuracana (0-0)
2nd- @Jack V Savage (2-0)
3rd- @waiguoren (1-2)
4th- @Jack V Savage (7-1)

Those rankings are... interesting. Why are people who are 1-0 ranked above people who are 2-0?

 

[Lead]

Those rankings are... interesting. Why are people who are 1-0 ranked above people who are 2-0?

It’s in the OP here:

-The score applied to each poster will be based on ranking in opponent faced, duration of the reward/punishment of bets made, type of bet made (name, av, and/or, sig), and how new/old the resolved bet is. Due to limitations, the longest duration of a bet will be capped at 5 years.

One example:
Poster A wins two bets
1 month sig bet
1 month sig bet
Poster B wins one bet
6 month av bet

Poster B will show up higher in the ranking with the score generated from those results.

To get high score wins, you can do a long length, do av or name bet instead of sit, and/or beat someone in the top 10. It’s a double edged sword though because loses have a similar impact the other direction.

It’s not perfect but I think it’s simple enough for people to get how to up-rank.