Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[Lead]

Like these two are pretty surreal in retrospect but I think you could’ve found more than one poster saying it at the time.

#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage

#3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017
Winner: Jack V Savage

 

[Jack V Savage]

Like these two are pretty surreal in retrospect but I think you could’ve found more than one poster saying it at the time.

#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage

#3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017
Winner: Jack V Savage

I think the same about the Biden won't last a year one. Also, people don't even remember this now, but a lot of Republicans were saying that Hillary had a dire health problem in 2016 and would die before the election. Couldn't get a bet on it, though.

 

[SakurabasEar]

I'm willing to take a bet on biden's reelection, if anyone's interested

I could adjust to a bet on democratic primaries I suppose

 

[LMP]

I'm willing to take a bet on biden's reelection, if anyone's interested

I could adjust to a bet on democratic primaries I suppose

What are your stances?

 

[SakurabasEar]

What are your stances?

If Biden seeks reelection, I bet a loss to Desantis provided he makes it to the general.

If Biden doesn't end up seeking reelection, we adjust the bet to our top 2 choices and in turn the 4 outcomes

Does that make sense or am I drunk

 

[Jack V Savage]

If Biden seeks reelection, I bet a loss to Desantis provided he makes it to the general.

If Biden doesn't end up seeking reelection, we adjust the bet to our top 2 choices and in turn the 4 outcomes

Does that make sense or am I drunk

I'd bet against DeSantis being elected in 2024. I think he probably doesn't win the nomination and he probably loses the general if he gets the nomination. Too far out to really know about either individually, but combined, he's well under the line. That is, I'm generally willing to bet when I think I have a better than 75% chance, and I'd give him less than a 25% chance of winning the presidency based on current info.

 

[SakurabasEar]

I'd bet against DeSantis being elected in 2024. I think he probably doesn't win the nomination and he probably loses the general if he gets the nomination. Too far out to really know about either individually, but combined, he's well under the line. That is, I'm generally willing to bet when I think I have a better than 75% chance, and I'd give him less than a 25% chance of winning the presidency based on current info.

I cannot match your bet strictly on DeSantis, because there are still too many variables for me when it comes to trump

 

[Lead]

I think the same about the Biden won't last a year one. Also, people don't even remember this now, but a lot of Republicans were saying that Hillary had a dire health problem in 2016 and would die before the election. Couldn't get a bet on it, though.

The van incident didn’t help that. I think there was reason to belief something was there but not be able to determine if how severe it was. Certainly not to believe imminent death. These are some of the most protected people in the world in terms of healthcare.

 

[Jack V Savage]

The van incident didn’t help that. I think there was reason to belief something was there but not be able to determine if how severe it was. Certainly not to believe imminent death. These are some of the most protected people in the world in terms of healthcare.

I think it would have been a bet on whether you think such a thing could plausibly be hidden or how much faith you put in conspiracy sites.

 

[Lead]

I think it would have been a bet on whether you think such a thing could plausibly be hidden or how much faith you put in conspiracy sites.

Well I suppose there was a narrative it was ongoing. The van incident easily could be seen as something new or at least recent and would cast doubt at the time if they weren’t giving many details. I remember someone pointing to the glasses she was wearing being something to avoid seizures and stuff like that. The were so many things going on in that race I almost entirely forgot about the van.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Anyone want to bet on U3 being over 5% by year end? @SakuGoliath? Seems like a lot of people have been praying for/expecting a recession any minute now for a couple of years.

 

[Andy Capp]

Like these two are pretty surreal in retrospect but I think you could’ve found more than one poster saying it at the time.

#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage

#3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017
Winner: Jack V Savage

Where do you find these suckers, @Jack V Savage? I've proffered many wagers that appeared less crazy than either of these (but with no less certain an outcome IMHO) and gotten no takers.

Anyway, I have a bet p. Trump will not be the next Republican nominee, and while your faith it will also not be DeSantis is not a mutually exclusive proposition, it doesn't seem like there is a viable third candidate at this (relatively) early juncture. The split in the party that became evident when the red wave failed to materialize is growing judging by the belly flop that was CPAC 2023 so, to me, taking your action is almost a no-brainer but that's a good reason to give it further thought.

If anyone were willing to wager the nominee will be neither of these tools I think it would be a fun 3-way bet except I'd be rooting for the third guy

 

[Rob Battisti]

Anyone want to bet on U3 being over 5% by year end? @SakuGoliath? Seems like a lot of people have been praying for/expecting a recession any minute now for a couple of years.

Recession seems nearly unavoidable. I follow Mike McGlone a lot and I’d say he’s been incredibly forthcoming with his indicators

 

[Jack V Savage]

Recession seems nearly unavoidable. I follow Mike McGlone a lot and I’d say he’s been incredibly forthcoming with his indicators

There's a 100% chance that at some point in the future there will be a recession. I would bet against unemployment rising to 5% by the end of this year, though. I think that given what we're seeing from yield curves and the fact that the Fed is in a tightening cycle, the risk is higher than usual (which would be around 20% for any given year). Still less than 50/50 IMO, but it wouldn't really surprise anyone. But on top of that, a recession would likely be very shallow and over very quickly just because the Fed is now in a position to really turn things around (that is, lots of room to lower rates). So my thinking is that we multiply the chances that there's a recession by the end of the year, that it's deep enough to cause unemployment to rise a full 1.5%-plus, that it starts in time for that to show up by the end of the year, and that it doesn't start too early to be fixed by then. I'm comfortable betting against that. I think some people have expressed a lot of pessimism around all those things and would be confident that we'd see >5% U3 (and pessimism about inflation also plays into it, as the Fed might be willing to tolerate a bump in U3 and recession if the level is still low and the recession is shallow if inflation remains high.

 

[LMP]

@Rob Battisti back down again.

It will be interesting to watch the trend next year when the halving happens.

 

[Lead]

@Rob Battisti back down again.

It will be interesting to watch the trend next year when the halving happens.

*googles*

 

[Rob Battisti]

@Rob Battisti back down again.

It will be interesting to watch the trend next year when the halving happens.

Whole market is down. I still feel like my bets are rock solid

 

[LMP]

Whole market is down. I still feel like my bets are rock solid

$50k is a stretch, i think it may end up around $40k. Regulations could easily crash it.

 

[Rob Battisti]

$50k is a stretch, i think it may end up around $40k. Regulations could easily crash it.

Regulations have always been a threat but the cycle is still acting predictably

 

[Jack V Savage]

$50k is a stretch, i think it may end up around $40k. Regulations could easily crash it.

That's still predicting a 100% gain in a pretty short period. Assets do double quickly sometimes (generally because of new information), but if there were evidence suggesting such a move, I don't see why current value wouldn't reflect it. I think for any given stop date, $10K is just as likely as $30K.