Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[HockeyBjj]

For the rate, do we all agree it’s the 6.4 here for the January 2023 report?
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#
Meaning all categories and not seasonally adjusted? And also this wouldn’t be averaging each month but just taking what the number is for the January 2024 report? Also, I assume the Jan 18th date would need to be Feb 18th?

Close, yes on the number. It's also shown here as Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Jan. 2023. Not a 12 month average.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

For the date, I was referring to the report that would come out around Jan 14th, so that would in fact be December 2023 number. Wanted the bet to be the end of the 2023 year inflation

Does that work @Jack V Savage?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Close, yes on the number. It's also shown here as Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Jan. 2023. Not a 12 month average.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

For the date, I was referring to the report that would come out around Jan 14th, so that would in fact be December 2023 number. Wanted the bet to be the end of the 2023 year inflation

Does that work @Jack V Savage?

Yes. @Lead, let's wrap this up.

 

[Lead]

@HockeyBjj v. @Jack V Savage
1. December 2023 Inflation as measured by unadjusted, CPI 12 month index will be below 5.50%
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @HockeyBjj - against
3. Tentatively 1/18/24 (whenever the initial report is issued)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6. This will be the initial reported number for December 2023 from the BLS. For reference, this link shows the January 2023 number at 6.4%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Please carefully read that as I modified it a bit from the past discussion. Let me know if something needs adjusted. Otherwise, just quote and give it an okay.

 

[HockeyBjj]

@HockeyBjj v. @Jack V Savage
1. December 2023 Inflation as measured by unadjusted, CPI 12 month index will be below 5.50%
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @HockeyBjj - against
3. Tentatively 1/18/24 (whenever the initial report is issued)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6. This will be the initial reported number for December 2023 from the BLS. For reference, this link shows the January 2023 number at 6.4%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Please carefully read that as I modified it a bit from the past discussion. Let me know if something needs adjusted. Otherwise, just quote and give it an okay.

perfect

 

[Rob Battisti]

I’d like to get some bets out there.

 

[Lead]

I’d like to get some bets out there.

The thread is an open mic. If you mention a bold prediction, someone might take you up on it or you could tag someone you know you have a disagreement with which can be objectively measured.

 

[Jack V Savage]

@HockeyBjj v. @Jack V Savage
1. December 2023 Inflation as measured by unadjusted, CPI 12 month index will be below 5.50%
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @HockeyBjj - against
3. Tentatively 1/18/24 (whenever the initial report is issued)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6. This will be the initial reported number for December 2023 from the BLS. For reference, this link shows the January 2023 number at 6.4%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Please carefully read that as I modified it a bit from the past discussion. Let me know if something needs adjusted. Otherwise, just quote and give it an okay.

OK

 

[Jack V Savage]

I’d like to get some bets out there.

I'd bet you or anyone else against RDS becoming president in 2024 (with it settling early if he loses the primary). If anyone thinks someone other than Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024, I'd bet against them.

I'm open to a lot of things, but I'm not sure I can initiate many, as I usually make an offer when I think someone else is saying something crazy. Some people might have some weird ideas about crime.

 

[Lead]

@HockeyBjj v. @Jack V Savage
1. December 2023 Inflation as measured by unadjusted, CPI 12 month index will be below 5.50%
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @HockeyBjj - against
3. Tentatively 1/18/24 (whenever the initial report is issued)
4. Signature bet
5. 1 month
6. This will be the initial reported number for December 2023 from the BLS. For reference, this link shows the January 2023 number at 6.4%: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Please carefully read that as I modified it a bit from the past discussion. Let me know if something needs adjusted. Otherwise, just quote and give it an okay.

perfect

OK

It’s official, thanks

 

[Rob Battisti]

I'd bet you or anyone else against RDS becoming president in 2024 (with it settling early if he loses the primary). If anyone thinks someone other than Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024, I'd bet against them.

I'm open to a lot of things, but I'm not sure I can initiate many, as I usually make an offer when I think someone else is saying something crazy. Some people might have some weird ideas about crime.

I don’t think RDS will win.

Id have to have a think on some things

 

[Jack V Savage]

I don’t think RDS will win.

Id have to have a think on some things

How about anything being found connecting Joe Biden to any crimes related to his son? I think the GOP House is going to be looking really hard for that. Not sure what a good standard would be, though, as I think it's pretty likely that some accusation will be thrown out, and I think even the biggest believers wouldn't expect an actual indictment.

 

[Rob Battisti]

How about anything being found connecting Joe Biden to any crimes related to his son? I think the GOP House is going to be looking really hard for that. Not sure what a good standard would be, though, as I think it's pretty likely that some accusation will be thrown out, and I think even the biggest believers wouldn't expect an actual indictment.

I don’t really think that’s going to happen. Perhaps a tax indictment for Hunter but doubtful anything against the big guy.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I don’t really think that’s going to happen. Perhaps a tax indictment for Hunter but doubtful anything against the big guy.

I figure no one expects an indictment but I'm saying I don't think they'll find any evidence of a crime by Joe. Very confident that he's super clean.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I figure no one expects an indictment but I'm saying I don't think they'll find any evidence of a crime by Joe. Very confident that he's super clean.

You think that A. Hunter did nothing wrong and B. If he did, Biden didn’t either know or wasn’t involved?

 

[Jack V Savage]

You think that A. Hunter did nothing wrong and B. If he did, Biden didn’t either know or wasn’t involved?

I think Joe did nothing wrong.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I think Joe did nothing wrong.

Legally or morally?

 

[SakurabasEar]

@Jack V Savage you have 12 wins? There's not even a close second, you look like the only one betting

Nerd

 

[Deleted member 585708]

I'm waiting for my forfeit avatar from @CyberRubberDuck.

Clock's on, it's already March.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Legally or morally?

Well, probably everyone has done morally wrong things, but I don't think the House is going to find any evidence of Joe committing a crime because I think he's unusually clean.

@Jack V Savage you have 12 wins? There's not even a close second, you look like the only one betting

Nerd

All of those bets were against other people. I like betting because there is accountability and people learn from mistakes. Also prevents people from making bullshit claims, or at least imposes a penalty if they do it. Also, FYI, it's 13 now (record hasn't been updated yet). Also had a few wins before we started tracking.

 

[Lead]

@Jack V Savage you have 12 wins? There's not even a close second, you look like the only one betting

Nerd

Doesn’t feel like it but 51 posters have settled bets so far and I believe that last one made was bet #67. It’s a slow burn type of game but I think it’s beneficial to the forum. Some of the initial bets regulars agreed to were pretty outlandish.