Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[mon]

You didn't name your terms?

Busy, your boastful confidence seems to be diminishing prematurely.... Barely 2mins between posts and its done already?

Send me a PM and I'll give you some pointers on the finer arts in life, stick with me kid and I'll make you the star of the flock.


On you bet, there's a very good chance you've lost already.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

Busy, your boastful confidence seems to be diminishing prematurely.... Barely 2mins between posts and its done already?

Send me a PM and I'll give you some pointers on the finer arts in life, stick with me kid and I'll make you the star of the flock.


On you bet, there's a very good chance you've lost already.

Let's go, bro!

Name your terms when you get time

 

[mon]

Let's go, bro!

Name your terms when you get time

Whats this thread about?
And
Whats the point exactly besides embarrassing yourself?

By your original post, there is the very real potential that you've already lost just on the drop in live birth data in the vaxxed countrys. I just need to show that there is a drop in live births at 10% in the vaxxed country's.

Anyway as I said, busy so no effort at moment on sherdog.

 

[Rob Battisti]

 

[Lead]

*googles again*

 

[Jack V Savage]

*googles again*

21st and as far as I know, Biden's still president. The turd I bet with has already been flushed, but that's still a win, right?

 

[Lead]

#61. @Jack V Savage v. @Diogenes of Sinope
1. Joe Biden will last at least two years in office as President
2. @Jack V Savage - for, @Diogenes of Sinope - against
3. 1/20/2023
4. Signature Bet
5. 6 months
Winner: Jack V Savage

 

[Lead]

21st and as far as I know, Biden's still president. The turd I bet with has already been flushed, but that's still a win, right?

Yep, definitely counts. If we did nulls on bannings, a lot of bets wouldn’t have shown up. I didn’t run the numbers but aside from Wai, I’d assume the records of bans are under .500. Would imply they make poor decisions all around.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Want a bet? Russia will lose, and they are losing and will continue to lose. You even admitted that you haven't been following this conflict because you found it 'too annoying' most likely because Ukraine (the good guy's) are winning whilst a US democratic government is in power. Tell you what, why don't you just leave the opinion stuff to those of us who have actually been following this conflict since the beginning and take your partisan BS somewhere else?

The destruction of their economy for the next 2 decades, their military reputation (they really thought they were world number 2 lol), their defence industry sales mostly likely for the next half a century, their nationalistic pride, their captured territory since 2014 and their 'national security' since now they have a extra 2400 miles of NATO border to defend on their western front. And I would not be at all surprised if they eventually lose their seat on the UN security council. Oh and more than half of their energy sales for all time. But apart from that they'll lose nothing lol

@HockeyBjj you seem like a level headed person. I propose two bets here.

First is a sig/avatar bet for if Russia loses Crimea and the East within the next 6 months (which would include a potential spring offensive from either side).

Second is an account bet for if Russia is economonically and their stellar reputation is crippled in 20 years as a direct result of this conflict.

Agreed @aries ?

 

[HockeyBjj]

@HockeyBjj you seem like a level headed person. I propose two bets here.

First is a sig/avatar bet for if Russia loses Crimea and the East within the next 6 months (which would include a potential spring offensive from either side).

Second is an account bet for if Russia is economonically and their stellar reputation is crippled in 20 years as a direct result of this conflict.

Agreed @aries ?

I'm really not keeping up with the Ukraine/Russia situation at all. I think @Strychnine is the mod I see in our Ukraine megathread the most?

I wouldn't be a good arbitrator of what consists of Russia "losing" crimea and the east (what's the east, Donbas?)

Your second is probably not bettable, as economically crippled is an impossible thing to define. The fact they couldn't swoop in and take Kiev in weeks makes them look crippled already to me for what I expected the Russian war machine to look like against an non US or China level country.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I'm really not keeping up with the Ukraine/Russia situation at all. I think @Strychnine is the mod I see in our Ukraine megathread the most?

I wouldn't be a good arbitrator of what consists of Russia "losing" crimea and the east (what's the east, Donbas?)

Your second is probably not bettable, as economically crippled is an impossible thing to define. The fact they couldn't swoop in and take Kiev in weeks makes them look crippled already to me for what I expected the Russian war machine to look like against an non US or China level country.

True. Well I tried to get him to clarify what Russia losing means and he gave me that word salad. I was just trying to give two bet options for him.

I will go back to my initial bet, a sig/avatar bet for if Russia loses Crimea and the East within the next 6 months (which would include a potential spring offensive from either side). And by sig/avatar, I mean for one year.

@aries @Strychnine good terms?

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I'm really not keeping up with the Ukraine/Russia situation at all. I think @Strychnine is the mod I see in our Ukraine megathread the most?

I wouldn't be a good arbitrator of what consists of Russia "losing" crimea and the east (what's the east, Donbas?)

Your second is probably not bettable, as economically crippled is an impossible thing to define. The fact they couldn't swoop in and take Kiev in weeks makes them look crippled already to me for what I expected the Russian war machine to look like against an non US or China level country.

From the get go, I never thought they wanted to take kiev.

This was from a post of mine from 2/25 of last year when this kicked off.

It is like they allowed this to happen, now they sanction him, which gives Putin a month (based on what Biden just said) to do what he needs to, to secure what he wants in Ukraine, but eventually does stop the aggression at just Ukraine. Putin gets eastern Ukraine that connects through Crimea. Biden gets to look like he stopped WW3.

I cant quote it, but you can see on post #4961 here of the first ukraine/russia conflict thread. So I think I was pretty correct with saying Putin just wants Eastern Ukraine, and the whole narrative of taking Kiev is for gaslighting. Have only continued to say such.

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...megathread-v1.4226407/page-249#post-167553472

 

[HockeyBjj]

Probably just donating a W to @Jack V Savage but here we go @Lead

1) Inflation as measured by CPI 12 month index (on the initial report, not waiting for modifications) will be below 5.5% on the January 2024 CPI report
2) Jack for, Hockey Against
3) January 18th, 2024 (looks like they're normally out 12th-14th)
4) Sig bet
5) 1 month

 

[Jack V Savage]

Probably just donating a W to @Jack V Savage but here we go @Lead

1) Inflation as measured by CPI 12 month index (on the initial report, not waiting for modifications) will be below 5.5% on the January 2024 CPI report
2) Jack for, Hockey Against
3) January 18th, 2024 (looks like they're normally out 12th-14th)
4) Sig bet
5) 1 month

@Lead, I accept.

 

[HockeyBjj]

@Lead, I accept.

I accept as well @Lead

 

[Lead]

Probably just donating a W to @Jack V Savage but here we go @Lead

1) Inflation as measured by CPI 12 month index (on the initial report, not waiting for modifications) will be below 5.5% on the January 2024 CPI report
2) Jack for, Hockey Against
3) January 18th, 2024 (looks like they're normally out 12th-14th)
4) Sig bet
5) 1 month

@Lead, I accept.

I accept as well @Lead

For the rate, do we all agree it’s the 6.4 here for the January 2023 report?
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#
Meaning all categories and not seasonally adjusted? And also this wouldn’t be averaging each month but just taking what the number is for the January 2024 report? Also, I assume the Jan 18th date would need to be Feb 18th?

 

[Rob Battisti]

I accept as well @Lead

5.5% will be close. God speed

 

[Jack V Savage]

For the rate, do we all agree it’s the 6.4 here for the January 2023 report?
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#
Meaning all categories and not seasonally adjusted? And also this wouldn’t be averaging each month but just taking what the number is for the January 2024 report? Also, I assume the Jan 18th date would need to be Feb 18th?

Correct on all counts, if that's OK with Hockey.

5.5% will be close. God speed

Gave myself some wiggle room there. I think sub-4 is likely. Markets are calling for much less, but I take the over on the over/under.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Correct on all counts, if that's OK with Hockey.



Gave myself some wiggle room there. I think sub-4 is likely. Markets are calling for much less, but I take the over on the over/under.

I’d take action on sub 4 for sure

 

[Jack V Savage]

I’d take action on sub 4 for sure

I think the odds are closer than I like to do for these bets. My mental cutoff is stuff where I have at least a 75% chance of winning. I think sub-4 is really close to that. Obviously my record suggests more conservatism, but that's just a minimum.