Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[Andy Capp]

They don’t seem interested in clarifying the illness/ injury part. I’ve stated above the same concern and how subjective that would be as well as how Trump could use it as a more graceful way to bow out. I can’t think of cleaner language either though so thought at least three people could weigh in instead of one. If you have better language for it, let me know but otherwise, I’ll either go with three deciding or push as I think it has a possibility of argument upon settlement.

Third party wouldn’t matter. It’s the Republican nominee so it’s likely Andy would be the winner there or some weird null was ill and then ran later which would question how ill he truly was.

It's not a question of not being interested in clarifying that, rather I'm not interested in haggling over it with that loser so it's whatever to me even as I agree with you.

 

[Andy Capp]

That backing out of a failed primary bud due to illness sounds like it really could be used to save face. If he’s not diagnosed with cancer or has a stroke (ironic) I’d be skeptical that’s the real reason for backing out by Trump and it would make this bet messy. The illness reasons I think have to be more clear, or you just leave a lot of interpretation to the judge and live with the ruling.

I’m good with a party group of me and Lowman (center right and center left) and you given leeway to decide as we wish, so long as no complaints if disagree with ruling.

Only other area I think needs to be made clear in advance in case it happens, is does Trump running as third party equal a win for Andy or a null?

Heretic concedes that "backing out of a failed primary bud due to illness sounds like it really could be used to save face" and could happen in fact, and that he would accept that determination on reasonable grounds; whatever I may think of him, I'm prepared to test his mettle and give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Andy Capp]

If you're cool with it, that's fine. But I think he is clearly trying to back out after he already made the agreement. Not something an honorable man would do. But I guess you get two potential wins here--Heretic is forced to show his character some more, plus you possibly win the bet.

LOL @ possibly. If he even declares his candidacy, and I have asserted herein without challenge (to my unending surprise) that there is a non-zero likelihood he will not even run--the war within the party will make the "Bernie bullied out of the 2016 nomination" thing nothing but a fart in the wind in terms of significance, IMHO. As you correctly pointed out, one underestimates the power of the back room at one's peril. I'm surprised Heretic seems unphased by this having witnessed it in action (though perhaps without realizing) here in Canuckistan his entire life.

It's so comically transparent up here though, that I suppose it's excusable to think it's not so much of a factor when you eat nationalist propaganda for breakfast.

 

[Andy Capp]

I understand the frustration but with 60 some bets done in here, I’ve found many people have a different views on what is common sense and what isn’t. We just saw that with the death piece right there. Some people would have seen the original written up version as “well, death wasn’t in there, that’s really shitty luck but I lost” and others would say “Neither of us could’ve foreseen this event so the bet is obviously null”. The point of getting the bet locked in is nothing should change with it until it’s called. The only time that allows for an open bet to change is if both participants proposed and edit and agreed. So crossing that bridge later could leave the person in a bad spot if the other person doesn’t want to cross said bridge.

@Andy Capp, where do you stand on serious illness/ injury? Is there a clear cut way this could be introduced to get this finalized?

Nah, I think we'll all know if he's incapacitated or not because if he is, he'll disappear from public view completely and permanently and if not he won't be able to resist getting attention from the public in some way. I expect that if the bet is settled in @HereticBD's favour and then it turns out Trump pops his head out like some kind of ground hog with a caffeine buzz, he'd have the stones to nullify the terms of the bet itself without need for complaint from me. That is, if his last several posts in this thread are to be believed. I will likely screenshot them for posterity though, just in case.

FTR I understand that like any bookie, if the bet is settled and then the result changes later it does not change the official outcome of the bet so no need to add any further codicil that requires mutual agreement about that as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Jack V Savage]

LOL @ possibly. If he even declares his candidacy, and I have asserted herein without challenge (to my unending surprise) that there is a non-zero likelihood he will not even run--the war within the party will make the "Bernie bullied out of the 2016 nomination" thing nothing but a fart in the wind in terms of significance, IMHO. As you correctly pointed out, one underestimates the power of the back room at one's peril. I'm surprised Heretic seems unphased by this having witnessed it in action (though perhaps without realizing) here in Canuckistan his entire life.

It's so comically transparent up here though, that I suppose it's excusable to think it's not so much of a factor when you eat nationalist propaganda for breakfast.

Well, given that Trump is likely to find an excuse to get out if he's losing, Heretic is just giving you a lose or draw bet. I'd also say that while it's a mistake to overlook the fact that GOP elites favor RDS, it's also a mistake to overlook the fact that Trump is still really popular with actual idiot GOP primary voters and that RDS is unlikely to get more popular with more visibility/scrutiny. There is a significant chance that it will be someone else (obviously, those two are by far the frontrunners at this point, but a lot can happen), which plays into your side, though. I'd say roughly 50% chance Trump wins it, but less than 50% that Heretic pays up.

 

[HereticBD]

@HereticBD v. @Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null
7. @Lead, @Lowmanproblems, @HockeyBjj (Majority decides the bet with the hopes that it will be unanimous upon deliberation)

@HereticBD
@Andy Capp
There you go. Keep in mind the 6b part concerns were pointed out and the solution arrived at is three different posters are going to give the verdict. I can’t guarantee either or both of you will agree with the verdict but when the language is that open ended, there’s room for that to happen. You are agreeing here to the arbitration of the bet which is key. All parties here want to give a fair verdict.


Please quote and approve and we will (finally) have this official.

Approved.

 

[HereticBD]

I didn't nickel and dime fuckall.

Calm down. I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to the stupid process that always goes on in here, with these "official" bets.

On the Trump death thing, you can't blame me for politely trying; I mean, as Jack said, I could have just said nothing instead of giving you the courtesy of freely granting that it's the norm here that in these cases death nullifies the bet. I took no issue after that and agreed to your terms. So, I don't know who you're whining at in this post but I really don't care all that much so to me it's, like, you know, whatever.

Again, I wasn't referring to you in all that. We both recognized that death was not really what the bet was about. Jackie was the one making it some kind of big deal, which is odd, considering it's not even his bet. I only offered you the second bet just in case you were on the page as him, and it was gonna become an issue.

I would've brought it up before signing off anyways. I made the same bet in another thread, with the same stipulations. It's obviously not in the spirit of the bet, and it would be a hollow victory to win that way anyways.

 

[Natural Order]

Septuplet post gotten to by the Capper. Just wow.

 

[Andy Capp]

Septuplet post gotten to by the Capper. Just wow.

You should be proud of your ability to count more than 5. Good on ya.

And lol @ gotten to. You should find all your English teachers and punch them all in the face for letting you down in the reading comprehension category.

You're welcome. Have a nice day.

 

[Natural Order]

You should be proud of your ability to count more than 5. Good on ya.

And lol @ gotten to. You should find all your English teachers and punch them all in the face for letting you down in the reading comprehension category.

You're welcome. Have a nice day.

You've obviously skipped your daily medication.

 

[Lead]

@HereticBD v. @Andy Capp
1. Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for president.
2. HereticBD- for @Andy Capp - against
3. Official Announcement at the 2024 Republican National Convention (around July 2024)
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6a. In the event of Trump passes away during his campaign, the bet is null.
6b. In the event Trump ends his campaign due to serious illness and/or injury before the convention, the bet is null
7. @Lead, @Lowmanproblems, @HockeyBjj (Majority decides the bet with the hopes that it will be unanimous upon deliberation)

@HereticBD
@Andy Capp
There you go. Keep in mind the 6b part concerns were pointed out and the solution arrived at is three different posters are going to give the verdict. I can’t guarantee either or both of you will agree with the verdict but when the language is that open ended, there’s room for that to happen. You are agreeing here to the arbitration of the bet which is key. All parties here want to give a fair verdict.


Please quote and approve and we will (finally) have this official.

Approved.

Approved.

And now…. the bet War Roomers from all around the world have been waiting for…. ITTTTSSSS TIMMMEEEE! A 3 month sig bet between the two top ranked Canadian contenders. Betting out of this corner, with a record of 3-2, ranking #9 in the division, fighting from the minds and hearts of everyone, HERETIC! B! D!!!! And in this corner, coming in with a 1-0 record and #2 ranking, fighting out of green acres, ANDYYY CAPPPP!


It is official

 

[Broke Lester]

And now…. the bet War Roomers from all around the world have been waiting for…. ITTTTSSSS TIMMMEEEE! A 3 month sig bet between the two top ranked Canadian contenders. Betting out of this corner, with a record of 3-2, ranking #9 in the division, fighting from the minds and hearts of everyone, HERETIC! B! D!!!! And in this corner, coming in with a 1-0 record and #2 rankings, fighting out of green acres, ANDYYY CAPPPP!


It is official

Mission accomplished.

Spoiler

 

[Deleted member 585708]

And now…. the bet War Roomers from all around the world have been waiting for…. ITTTTSSSS TIMMMEEEE! A 3 month sig bet between the two top ranked Canadian contenders. Betting out of this corner, with a record of 3-2, ranking #9 in the division, fighting from the minds and hearts of everyone, HERETIC! B! D!!!! And in this corner, coming in with a 1-0 record and #2 rankings, fighting out of green acres, ANDYYY CAPPPP!


It is official

Easy win for @Andy Capp IMO.

 

[HereticBD]

Heretic concedes that "backing out of a failed primary bud due to illness sounds like it really could be used to save face" and could happen in fact, and that he would accept that determination on reasonable grounds; whatever I may think of him, I'm prepared to test his mettle and give him the benefit of the doubt.

You can ask anyone how I behave in the face of a bet loss, including that charming fellow @Jack V Savage, whom I conceded an election bet loss to when it was made official and long before January 20th, where I could've easily pulled some shenanigans and prolonged it, if I was inclined to do so.

My integrity is not in question on these things. I've rocked humiliating avatars in bets that weren't done in this "official" thread. I've been doing these fun little bets since I joined, and always pay up when I lose. It's really not a big deal.

 

[Lead]

I wonder how slow of a burn the 2024 primary will be. I thought by spring of the prior year we were usually seeing who likely would be running

 

[LMP]

Im sad to tell everyone, but our favorite capitalist @MMAisGod has finally turned full commie. He is too scared to take a straight bet on Walker winning.

 

[Lead]

Im sad to tell everyone, but our favorite capitalist @MMAisGod has finally turned full commie. He is too scared to take a straight bet on Walker winning.

​

 

[LMP]

​

I know it came as a complete shock to me as well.

 

[Broke Lester]

Im sad to tell everyone, but our favorite capitalist @MMAisGod has finally turned full commie. He is too scared to take a straight bet on Walker winning.

Walker, Texas Ranger?

 

[LMP]

Walker, Texas Ranger?

Walker that played football. I guess being a Canadian you probably arent familiar with football.