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The War Room Bet Thread V3

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waiguoren said:
@Jack V Savage v. @waiguoren
1. Bernard Sanders will win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 election.
2. Jack V- against, waiguoren for
3. At the time of the 2020 DNC
4. AV bet
5. 3 months
6. Bet is a push if Sanders withdraws from the race for medical reasons or dies.
Click to expand...

I admire the persistence but this is starting to look bleak.
 
waiguoren said:
There's another guy who said he'd be willing, though.
Click to expand...

Trotsky.

My take is that the top tier right now is Biden/Bernie/Beto/Harris. The rest of the field collectively has a decent shot, too. I don't think I can really estimate the odds. I'd pick against Bernie at even odds, but I don't know if it crosses into the territory that I'm comfortable betting on it for this purpose. Needless to say, I think your confidence is wildly misplaced, but it's not exploitable at this time.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Trotsky.

My take is that the top tier right now is Biden/Bernie/Beto/Harris. The rest of the field collectively has a decent shot, too. I don't think I can really estimate the odds. I'd pick against Bernie at even odds, but I don't know if it crosses into the territory that I'm comfortable betting on it for this purpose. Needless to say, I think your confidence is wildly misplaced, but it's not exploitable at this time.
Click to expand...
I don't think the rest of the field has a decent shot, and I agree those are the top players.

What is your cap of Sanders's chances? .20? Seems like bettable territory for you.
 
waiguoren said:
I don't think the rest of the field has a decent shot, and I agree those are the top players.

What is your cap of Sanders's chances? .20? Seems like bettable territory for you.
Click to expand...

I don't feel like I have a firm handle on it, but probably in that range. It's borderline bettable territory. I think that Biden's chances are much worse than they appear, though I'm not willing to throw out some of the only relevant data to base the analysis on. I also don't like your attempted juicing (the possibility that he pulls out for medical reasons is small but I think material, especially since he might be more likely to pull out for medical reasons if it's not going so well).
 
Jack V Savage said:
I don't feel like I have a firm handle on it, but probably in that range. It's borderline bettable territory. I think that Biden's chances are much worse than they appear, though I'm not willing to throw out some of the only relevant data to base the analysis on. I also don't like your attempted juicing (the possibility that he pulls out for medical reasons is small but I think material, especially since he might be more likely to pull out for medical reasons if it's not going so well).
Click to expand...
That's not juicing. It's an attempt to capture the spirit of the bet. I believe Sanders is in the best position of all candidates to receive the nomination, and I don't see anyone who is likely to beat him. If health intervenes, that shouldn't swing the bet either way. That's why I wrote it to be a push in that case.
 
Final offer before I get the other guy

@Jack V Savage v. @waiguoren
1. Bernard Sanders will win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 election.
2. Jack V- against, waiguoren for
3. At the time of the 2020 DNC
4. AV bet
5. 3 months
6. Bet is a push if Sanders withdraws from the race for medical reasons or dies.
 
@Rob Battisti v. @waiguoren
1. Bernard Sanders will win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 election.
2. Rob- against, waiguoren for
3. At the time of the 2020 DNC
4. AV bet
5. 6 months
6. Bet is a push if Sanders withdraws from the race for medical reasons or dies.
 
@waiguoren

I'm still concerned with your currently being over leveraged. You have a total of 7.3 years in sig bets and 5 in av bets. The biggest one obviously is the PolishHeadlock one and the problem with it is we never seem to know when the Mueller case will be finished.

It looks like it could be any day now so we may want to put this bet on ice until we know the result of the report.
 


@Lead

Time to settle this.


#29. @waiguoren v. @PolishHeadlock
1. The Mueller investigation will indict Trump and accuse Trump of committing a crime to EITHER
a) cooperate with / help Russia carry out the DNC/DCCC/Clinton office hack
OR
b) offer Russia concessions (policy, money, etc) in exchange for the fruits of one of the hacks above
2. PolishHeadlock- for, waiguoren- against
3. When the Mueller investigation concludes
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. Null if Mueller is fired or Trump unexpectedly passes
*Lead, Zankou, and panamaican will make the call on the bet when the investigation concludes.
 
waiguoren said:


@Lead

Time to settle this.


#29. @waiguoren v. @PolishHeadlock
1. The Mueller investigation will indict Trump and accuse Trump of committing a crime to EITHER
a) cooperate with / help Russia carry out the DNC/DCCC/Clinton office hack
OR
b) offer Russia concessions (policy, money, etc) in exchange for the fruits of one of the hacks above
2. PolishHeadlock- for, waiguoren- against
3. When the Mueller investigation concludes
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. Null if Mueller is fired or Trump unexpectedly passes
*Lead, Zankou, and panamaican will make the call on the bet when the investigation concludes.
Click to expand...


I haven't been keeping up unfortunately, did you already unwelch successfully yourself?
 
since we're all going to have to look at his avatar: i vote u make it a David hockney painting. water torture, bro.
 
gettyimages-578546876.jpg


President-Trump-Official-Portrait.jpg


trump.jpg


@PolishHeadlock

Which one do you like best?
 
waiguoren said:


@Lead

Time to settle this.


#29. @waiguoren v. @PolishHeadlock
1. The Mueller investigation will indict Trump and accuse Trump of committing a crime to EITHER
a) cooperate with / help Russia carry out the DNC/DCCC/Clinton office hack
OR
b) offer Russia concessions (policy, money, etc) in exchange for the fruits of one of the hacks above
2. PolishHeadlock- for, waiguoren- against
3. When the Mueller investigation concludes
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. Null if Mueller is fired or Trump unexpectedly passes
*Lead, Zankou, and panamaican will make the call on the bet when the investigation concludes.
Click to expand...


@PolishHeadlock

Are you two ready to call this? I usually like the posters to settle it themselves before having the officator(s) look into it.
 
Lead said:
@PolishHeadlock

Are you two ready to call this? I usually like the posters to settle it themselves before having the officator(s) look into it.
Click to expand...
what. You don't need officiators to 'look into it'. It is clear as day.

edit: I forgot this is the one with multiple officiators involved. My bad,
 
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