The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Limbo Pete]

@Limbo Pete

What do you think of PolishHeadlock using his alt account to try to influence his punishment? Greasy, isn't it? I kind of like it.

Wat

 

[Jack V Savage]

PolishHeadlock is my choice.

What's your prediction about approval ratings? 50% by year end?

 

[waiguoren]

Wat

PolishHeadlock just lost a huge bet to me. He tried to use his alt account to persuade me to lighten the punishment. Sneaky sneaky boy

 

[waiguoren]

What's your prediction about approval ratings? 50% by year end?

year end? my belief is he will get a significant temporary boost from this. >=1.5% a week from this evening.

 

[Limbo Pete]

PolishHeadlock just lost a huge bet to me. He tried to use his alt account to persuade me to lighten the punishment. Sneaky sneaky boy

I don't think tha-

...Carry on

 

[Limbo Pete]

Wait, I thought you were having Polish torch his account
Wasn't that a thing?

 

[Jack V Savage]

year end? my belief is he will get a significant temporary boost from this. >=1.5% a week from this evening.

So basically indistinguishable from normal fluctuations. OK. I thought you were going to make a real prediction.

 

[waiguoren]

So basically indistinguishable from normal fluctuations. OK. I thought you were going to make a real prediction.

Wrong. At 42.5%, Trump is already sitting close to his all-time highs. Another 1.5% on top of that will take him to 44%, which he has only hit maybe 3 times in his presidency.

Edit: I count six times, but the point still stands.

 

[waiguoren]

Wait, I thought you were having Polish torch his account
Wasn't that a thing?

Yeah but I expect the Welch brigade to start welching again if I even dare bring it up. We'll see what he does.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Wrong. At 42.5%, Trump is already sitting close to his all-time highs. Another 1.5% on top of that will take him to 44%, which he has only hit maybe 3 times in his presidency.

You were earlier willing to bet that he'd hit 50% (didn't happen because you wouldn't make an exception for a major health event or a war). What's caused you to become more bearish?

 

[Limbo Pete]

Yeah but I expect the Welch brigade to start welching again if I even dare bring it up. We'll see what he does.

So you're saying he's gonna pull a Wai?

 

[waiguoren]

So you're saying he's gonna pull a Wai?

There you go again

 

[waiguoren]

You were earlier willing to bet that he'd hit 50% (didn't happen because you wouldn't make an exception for a major health event or a war).

I disagree with that characterization.

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage
interested in a bet on Trump's re-election?

 

[Jack V Savage]

I disagree with that characterization.

Which part?

 

[waiguoren]

Which part?

That I wouldn't make an exception. Your criteria were far too vague and you refused to refine them.

I recall that you believed that the Trump Tower meeting involved the exchange of policy concessions for the DNC hacks. I'll give you 4:1 odds that the Mueller report will not come to that conclusion.

 

[Limbo Pete]

There you go again

<puh-lease75>

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage
interested in a bet on Trump's re-election?

I recall that you believed that the Trump Tower meeting involved the exchange of policy concessions for the DNC hacks. I'll give you 4:1 odds that the Mueller report will not come to that conclusion.

 

[waiguoren]

@Lead

Time to bring in the bosses. That weasel just won't concede.

 

[Jack V Savage]

@Jack V Savage
interested in a bet on Trump's re-election?

I recall that you believed that the Trump Tower meeting involved the exchange of policy concessions for the DNC hacks. I'll give you 4:1 odds that the Mueller report will not come to that conclusion.

Aren't you already betting on Trump's re-election?

At any rate, this far out, there's no way a presidential election would reach my threshold here. I think it's not looking good for Trump, though. And I continue to believe that the meeting involved that, as I think anyone would. Proving it to legal satisfaction is obviously much harder than to a kind of common-sense standard.