The War Room Bet Thread V3

[waiguoren]

Which part? Or are you just saying that in the WR right's typical "anyone who disagrees with me is dishonest" way?

You're mischaracterizing how those negotiations occurred. I was happy to make exceptions, but since you were the person demanding the exceptions it was incumbent upon you to write them up. You were too lazy to do that, so the negotiations collapsed.

 

[Jack V Savage]

No, I'm still the champ if you win a bet. I don't think you get how it works. Also, note that I have a better record and beat you head to head.

I'll do it again, too, if you want to bet that Trump's approval rating will hit 50% by year end.

 

[Jack V Savage]

You're mischaracterizing how those negotiations occurred. I was happy to make exceptions, but since you were the person demanding the exceptions it was incumbent upon you to write them up. You were too lazy to do that, so the negotiations collapsed.

Let's say a heart attack, stroke, assassination attempt, or invasion of a new country invalidates the bet.

 

[waiguoren]

Let's say a heart attack, stroke, assassination attempt, or invasion of a new country invalidates the bet.

define "invasion". Be specific. Would a Hillary Clinton-style air raid of Libya count?

 

[waiguoren]

@Lead

Mueller won't recommend further Russia probe indictments

The revelation answered one of the major questions that remained about Mueller's probe into Russian election meddling.

Special counsel Robert Mueller will not be recommending any further indictments in his Russia investigation, a senior Justice Department official said on Friday.

The revelation answered one of the major questions that remained about Mueller's probe into Russian election meddling...


https://www.politico.com/story/2019...y-further-indictments-in-russia-probe-1233070

 

[Lead]

Jackie 'likes' this post because it buys him two more days of Champ status. Jackie, you had a good run but all good things come to an end.

We reset the thread every ten called bets (null bets don’t count). I believe after this one is called, we will be one or two away but this definitely would be the most significant one out of the ten it seems.

 

[waiguoren]

We reset the thread every ten called bets (null bets don’t count). I believe after this one is called, we will be one or two away but this definitely would be the most significant one out of the ten it seems.

@Jack V Savage right now:
<{ByeHomer}>

 

[Lead]

@Jack V Savage right now:
<{ByeHomer}>

The belt itself has its pros and cons to it. It isn’t exactly like a real one since it changes hands by different means. Head to head didn’t sound like it would work because it would be easy to sit on the belt. There may have been interesting ways to handle it like if they didn’t face a top 5 opponent in a round, they would vacate. The current system mostly encourages the champ to get crowned and then try to get the longest standing record during their reign.

 

[Jack V Savage]

define "invasion". Be specific. Would a Hillary Clinton-style air raid of Libya count?

Haha. Such trolling. Obviously, we're talking about something significant enough to change the trajectory of polling. So something more like the Iraq invasion. But if you're going to be a dick, I'll say that the timeline (9 months) is tight enough that it's probably unlikely, and we can ease up. I'll let you slide on that. Just the health/assassination attempt exemption, and the bet is whether he hits 50% RCP average in 2019. Don't offer crazy terms to try to discourage a deal.

 

[waiguoren]

Haha. Such trolling. Obviously, we're talking about something significant enough to change the trajectory of polling. So something more like the Iraq invasion. But if you're going to be a dick, I'll say that the timeline (9 months) is tight enough that it's probably unlikely, and we can ease up. I'll let you slide on that. Just the health/assassination attempt exemption, and the bet is whether he hits 50% RCP average in 2019. Don't offer crazy terms to try to discourage a deal.

No trolling. You need to learn to define your concepts. This is a long-standing hole in your intellect. Recall our recent private conversations. Would a Hillary Clinton-style regime-change bombing campaign in Libya count as an 'invasion'?

Also, why only for 2019? I'll only consider the bet if the period ends when Trump leaves office.

 

[Jack V Savage]

No trolling. You need to learn to define your concepts. This is a long-standing hole in your intellect. Recall our recent private conversations. Would a Hillary Clinton-style regime-change bombing campaign in Libya count as an 'invasion'?

Also, why only for 2019? I'll only consider the bet if the period ends when Trump leaves office.

Trolling is acting like Clinton somehow invented or patented some type of bombing campaign.

And the excessively long-term bets are another of your trademark ducking moves (along with the excessive stakes). I feel quite confident that Trump will not hit 50% by the end of his time in office, but I want a faster payoff. Let's bet on 2019, and we can bet again for 2020.

 

[waiguoren]

Trolling is acting like Clinton somehow invented or patented some type of bombing campaign.

Strawman. I never claimed Clinton 'invented' or 'patented' it. According to in-depth reporting from the New York Times, she was the most vociferous of Obama's cabinet members in calling for US airstrikes in Libya to overthrow Gaddafi.

And the excessively long-term bets are another of your trademark ducking moves (along with the excessive stakes).

If they were 'ducking moves', then why would I have gone through with so many of them already? That's why you're no longer champion, actually. These long-term bets are very valuable in the standings.

I feel quite confident that Trump will not hit 50% by the end of his time in office

Saved. I will be quoting this in the future.

but I want a faster payoff.

Patience is a virtue, young man. Don't get anxious just because you're falling behind.

Let's bet on 2019, and we can bet again for 2020.

Apparently, you think I am a moron.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Apparently, you think I am a moron.

If you believe that there are signs that his approval will go over 50%, yes, but what difference does it make? We disagree about that, right?

 

[waiguoren]

If you believe that there are signs that his approval will go over 50%, yes, but what difference does it make? We disagree about that, right?

When did I claim it would happen this year? You are trying to pull a fast one. It's greasy, and I like it. I'm not that dumb, though.

 

[Jack V Savage]

When did I claim it would happen this year? You are trying to pull a fast one. It's greasy, and I like it. I'm not that dumb, though.

When do you think it'll happen?

 

[waiguoren]

When do you think it'll happen?

Before he leaves office.

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage

Your post quality took a nosedive there. I want the old Jack back. Be calm. The Republican partisans will get more arrogant after 2020. Lots of bets for you to win at that time.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Before he leaves office.

That's not even a determined time. Let's try another approach (to getting a solid answer from you): Why do you think he'll reach that level?

 

[waiguoren]

That's not even a determined time. Let's try another approach (to getting a solid answer from you): Why do you think he'll reach that level?

I think he's most likely to reach it in his second term.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think he's most likely to reach it in his second term.

Based on what?

Anyway, do we agree that he's extremely unlikely to reach even that low milestone in 2019 or 2020?