The War Room Bet Thread V3

[waiguoren]

That should work

BOOM

Check it now

 

[Lead]

BOOM

Check it now

#35. @waiguoren v. @Pelosi2016
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year
Winner: Waiguroen

Looks like Pelosi hasn't been on for over a month and also doesn't have plat. I should've considered name bets maybe being allowed only with plats betting but we can handle this one in the background. Let me know what the name is to be.

 

[waiguoren]

#35. @waiguoren v. @Pelosi2016
1. Either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will declare a candidacy for president for the 2020 US presidential election.
2. waiguoren for; Pelosi2016 against
3. Election day 2020, or whenever one of Sanders/Biden files the requisite paperwork (whichever occurs first)
4. Name bet
5. 1 year
Winner: Waiguroen

Looks like Pelosi hasn't been on for over a month and also doesn't have plat. I should've considered name bets maybe being allowed only with plats betting but we can handle this one in the background. Let me know what the name is to be.

I have decided I don't care to change his name. It's already quite amusing. I just want the credit in the betting rankings for winning a one year name bet.

 

[Lead]

I have decided I don't care to change his name. It's already quite amusing. I just want the credit in the betting rankings for winning a one year name bet.

I see. Since we officially enforce these things, please give me one more okay acknowledging he is released of his punishment. I don’t like leaving anything in limbo so if you say he’s free, he’s free with no take backs.

And of course this still counts to the rankings like you mentioned regardless of punishments being waived or not.

 

[waiguoren]

I see. Since we officially enforce these things, please give me one more okay acknowledging he is released of his punishment. I don’t like leaving anything in limbo so if you say he’s free, he’s free with no take backs.

And of course this still counts to the rankings like you mentioned regardless of punishments being waived or not.

Hm. Let's go with

Pelosi2020

 

[Quipling]

Hm. Let's go with

Pelosi2020

My version was better.

 

[Lead]

Hm. Let's go with

Pelosi2020

I'm on it.

My version was better.

What was it?

 

[Lead]

Also, I realized I just broadly approved name bets without checking if the posters were plats. The point of adding name bets was because it's a plat feature now so all name bets going forward need to be made by plat posters and be for a minimum of 4 months since the username change history only allows a change every 4 months. All name bets currently open are still good as this was an error on my part.

 

[Quipling]

I'm on it.



What was it?

UnironicallyPelosi2016

 

[Lead]

I think another bet gets decided today.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think another bet gets decided today.

I win today, but if @SBJJ wants to wait for another estimate, I'm OK with it because there was no first estimate (shutdown), right?

Ed: I guess they're calling this both the first and second estimate. I'm willing to discuss it. It's super close.

From the release:

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. See the Technical Note for details.

 

[SBJJ]

I win today, but if @SBJJ wants to wait for another estimate, I'm OK with it because there was no first estimate (shutdown), right?

Ed: I guess they're calling this both the first and second estimate. I'm willing to discuss it. It's super close.

From the release:

2018 GDP for 2018 was 3.1%

 

[Jack V Savage]

2018 GDP for 2018 was 3.1%

https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/initial-gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-annual-2018

2018 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.9 percent in 2018 (from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2017 (table 1).

 

[SBJJ]

https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/initial-gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-annual-2018

But even then the bet is a push

 

[Jack V Savage]

That's not real GDP

But even then the bet is a push

It is real GDP (re-read the quote). Real GDP is lower than non-inflation-adjusted GDP. And it's not a push. I had 2.9% or below.

#30. @Jack V Savage v. @SBJJ
1. Commerce Department's second estimate for 2018 Real GDP growth will be 2.90% or lower
2. Jack V- For, SBJJ- Against
3. Tentatively 02/28/19
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6. We will be able to pull the result from here: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm

 

[SBJJ]

It is real GDP (re-read the quote). Real GDP is lower than non-inflation-adjusted GDP. And it's not a push. I had 2.9% or below.

I'm calling BS. If u bet an over under the medium is a push.

But if this is the way it's going to be played I'll take the loss. Pretty crappy especially when we pretty much know it will be revised up

 

[SBJJ]

I should have read the bet more carefully. I thought we were betting over and under

 

[Jack V Savage]

I'm calling BS. If u bet an over under the medium is a push.

But if this is the way it's going to be played I'll take the loss. Pretty crappy especially when we pretty much know it will be revised up

We had to draw the line somewhere, and we drew it there. Remember your claim was that it would be better than any of the preceding nine years, not the same as a couple of years earlier. And what's BS? You lost fair and square.

If you want to make another bet on the direction of the revision, I'll consider that. I suspect you're wrong, but there's no strong basis for confidence on that.

 

[SBJJ]

Congrats to you. The stars and planets aligned for you brother

 

[SBJJ]

We had to draw the line somewhere, and we drew it there. Remember your claim was that it would be better than any of the preceding nine years, not the same as a couple of years earlier. And what's BS? You lost fair and square.

If you want to make another bet on the direction of the revision, I'll consider that. I suspect you're wrong, but there's no strong basis for confidence on that.

No. I thought it was written like actual over unders. That was my mistake.

I'd do a bet on revision either up or down