Yeh...maybe that will happen, but I wouldn't bet on it and I'm not sure why anyone else would. Is say it's more likely that it is upheld based on my reading of the law and the make up of the court.
So once again everyone is celebrating but Trump now has the dough to break new ground and good odds he'll get all those other billions right around the time he needs it most
I think that you're wrong here.
There are going to be a couple different challenges to the wall as-is, but the use of emergency powers carries with it a distinct set.
First, there's the statutory construction issue that you've touched on. I've done an example challenge below, but
I'd like to know what section you see him proceeding under. Second, there are some
serious constitutional hurdles that you haven't. You've pointed out that the court is largely conservative, but this doesn't help you as much as you think, because most of the conservative judges favor canons of interpretation that focus heavily on separation of powers issues: Gorsuch in particular tends to find separation of powers concerns persuasive - especially when it comes to the president attempting to assume congressional powers. Roberts has also come down on certain kinds of separation of powers issues pretty hard. Kavanaugh has that reputation, but he hasn't been on SCOTUS long enough to see how consistent he is here.
- Is this something that Trump has the power to do under the text of the emergency powers act?
The emergency powers act is pretty broad, so I'm not sure which section you think he has the power under, but let's take a look at
10 U.S. Code § 2808 as a possibility. This provides that, where a national emergency "requires the use of armed services," the Secretary of Defense may "undertake military construction projects, not otherwise authorized by law that are necessary to support such use of the armed forces. Such projects may be undertaken only within the total amount of funds that have been appropriated for military construction, including funds appropriated for family housing, that have not been obligated." While I can see how you might interpret that language in support of Trump, there are several hurdles here (let's set aside what constitutes an emergency):
Here's how I would go about challenging it from the textual end:
First, the emergency must "
require" the use of armed services. Does this? There were troops deployed to the border, but they provided indirect support at best and were largely idle, so its not clear the "emergency" so requires. Second, the military construction project must be "necessary" to support such use of the armed services. Is a wall necessary, or merely "useful"? Third, the "military construction project" must fit within the statutory definition of such. This is pretty broad, but it provides some guidance as to what sort of facilities are contemplated - and a border security wall might not be one. Fourth, it must be from certain existing funds relating to housing, which provides more guidance as to the sort of military construction this provision has in mind.
2. Constitutional challenges
Separation of Powers is the big one here. Congress has the power of the purse. They choose where spending goes, if they want. Under Youngstown, in a clash between Congress and the President, the president's powers are sharply limited, and he likely loses.
Trump's best counter argument is that there is no clash because Congress delegated some spending power to him via the above section. But, under Youngstown, the grant of power has to be clear - and whether the above allows him to build a wall is not. And the fact that the proposed budget
prohibits the use of funds for a wall causes serious problems for this argument.
His other counter-argument is that this falls within his authority because it deals with border security. But the fact that the executive has power over border security does not give him appropriations power over issues dealing with border security, so this argument is a dead-end.