The title picture at women's strawweight - assessing the champion and the four top contenders

[PurpleStorm]

Good post & thread. I'd like to see all four fight Weili at some point. We don't know how they'll turn out so that makes it exciting. It's looking like Joanna is the most healthy and game. Kudos if they make that fight. Now for extreme speculation and whacko predictions.

JJ. Has the most experience and excellent cardio. How will her weight cut go? Can her chin hold up in the clinch? How would Zhang's cardio hold up if it goes the distance? Can Joanna execute a perfect game plan like she did versus Andrade? Close call. Weili by tko or decision.

Suarez. Strong wrestler / grappler. Suarez can win by submission or ground & pound. Weili tags her with knees & elbows coming in a few times, depleting her energy. Weili by decision.

Rose. Good technical striker. Good jiu jitsu. Good foot work. Capable of a lot of stuff. Which won't phase Weili. Rose eventually gets frustrated, goes for something wild. Weili turns the tables. Weili by rear naked choke.

Andrade. In the rematch Jessica doesn't bull rush. Can't hulk smash. Weili by third round tko.

Weili will eventually lose. These are just my views if any of them are Weili's very next fight. It's also perhaps why JJ appears the only one willing to fight her next. Rose is like 'I'll fight again maybe as early as February or March.' Tatiana is like 'Not sure, my neck is still bad.' Jessica is like 'I should get back in line and win another fight first.'

There has been gamesmanship between them for a while. JJ pretended she never heard of Zhang when she was calling her out. Yeah sure! Zhang's been all 'My name is Weili Zhang and I am from China.' Weili's been saying she wants to 'fight the best' and JJ isn't the same as when she was champ. Sounds to me like they're both wary of each other's skills. As they should be. Hope it gets made. Should be a great fight. Now I gotta go back and re-read your analysis because it's so detailed.

 

[Rek Rekington]

So much effort... So little reason...

 

[Iron Nick]

Rose just got knocked out in her first real title defense. She doesn’t belong anywhere in the title conversation until she beats a top five fighter not named Joanna. Something she’s never done in her career.

Well, you're right in the regard that Rose didn't beat a top five fighter outside of Jedrzejczyk, but then again she beat her twice (even TKOing her in their first fight) and Joanna Jedrzejczyk is still the by far most accomplished fighter at women's strawweight plus she's besides Rose Namajunas only beaten by Valentina Shevchenko who's the best striker in WMMA and probably one of, if not the best technician in WMMA in general.
..and despite being finished by Andrade, it wasn't like she was thoroughly outskilled by her or anything.

 

[Eater of Souls]

So much effort... So little reason...

Your conception?

 

[Iron Nick]

Good post & thread. I'd like to see all four fight Weili at some point. We don't know how they'll turn out so that makes it exciting. It's looking like Joanna is the most healthy and game. Kudos if they make that fight. Now for extreme speculation and whacko predictions.

JJ. Has the most experience and excellent cardio. How will her weight cut go? Can her chin hold up in the clinch? How would Zhang's cardio hold up if it goes the distance? Can Joanna execute a perfect game plan like she did versus Andrade? Close call. Weili by tko or decision.

Thank you and i agree, i'd like to see them all fight Weili at some point as well!
JJ seems to be the toughest matchup for Weili as well to me, but i wouldn't worry too much about Jedrzejczyk in the clinch, since she's actually really good in there (and way stronger physically than many would expect) and with her cardio (which to me is the best in the division, as her output is only bested by Jessica Andrade, but Jedrzejczyk fights 8 minutes more on average each fight, which is insane and we've all seen how well she dealt with Jessica Andrade before as well, so with a gameplan that is kinda similar, i see Joanna winning, albeit someone like Weili is always dangerous and should not be underestimated.

Suarez. Strong wrestler / grappler. Suarez can win by submission or ground & pound. Weili tags her with knees & elbows coming in a few times, depleting her energy. Weili by decision.

I really wonder how this fight would play out! Suarez looks so good with her wrestling, but then again she most likely hasn't fought someone of the caliber of Weili Zhang before and against a faster, shorter opponent who's physically strong, it's way more difficult to get your takedowns going. Also: Suarez better stays out of boxing range with Weili, because while Weili is a little bit reckless in there at times, she's got the (way) heavier hands and Suarez has been hurt/looked vulnerable before in close ranges in her fight against Ansaroff.

Rose. Good technical striker. Good jiu jitsu. Good foot work. Capable of a lot of stuff. Which won't phase Weili. Rose eventually gets frustrated, goes for something wild. Weili turns the tables. Weili by rear naked choke.

I disagree with Rose getting frustrated and doing something wild here! If Rose has shown us anything in her last fights, it's that she's very measured when needed (see the Andrade fight and the 2nd fight against Jedrzejczyk) and Rose' power is actually quite good as well. What's interesting to me though is how she deals when being in the clinch with Weili, since Zhang is dangerous there and it's not really like Rose is known for being dominant in the clinch either.

Andrade. In the rematch Jessica doesn't bull rush. Can't hulk smash. Weili by third round tko.

Hmm.. i think that Andrade would have a better chance without being so reckless, as aerius has pointed out, she made it relatively easy for Weili to land flush on her, albeit you need a very calm fighter to counter someone like Andrade coming at you with everything she has. Still have no plan how this would play out, but i'm curious to see, if that fight happens.

There has been gamesmanship between them for a while. JJ pretended she never heard of Zhang when she was calling her out. Yeah sure! Zhang's been all 'My name is Weili Zhang and I am from China.' Weili's been saying she wants to 'fight the best' and JJ isn't the same as when she was champ. Sounds to me like they're both wary of each other's skills. As they should be. Hope it gets made. Should be a great fight. Now I gotta go back and re-read your analysis because it's so detailed.

Haha, yeah, it really seems that way and as already said, very interesting fight!
(and thanks again!)

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

Its hard to book without any rematches. Rose beat JJ then lost. Andrade beat Rose then lost. Tatiana won the prospect/ contender fight then got injured, and JJ lost those fights then beat the next highest streaking contender.

Maybe Andrade-JJ was long enough ago to run it back and Tatiana could fight Rose, but Tatiana was injured last I checked and where does that leave Zhang? And by all rights, Tatiana should be next, but if Zhang isn't ringing any bells yet with casuals, would the UFC book Tatiana in there?

Tough calls

 

[Franklin U.]

I'll be honest - dont know how good Zang is but from what I've seen.... I'll just forget about JJ. I just dont see her beating any of the top top 115ers anymore - maybe complacency has something to do with it.
I'll also skip over Andrade and Rose but I'll give Andrade a fair chance at maybe " overlooking the unknown ". That leaves Suarez , Nunes girlfriend ( sorry name escaping me but showed me alot vs Tatiana) and God forbid Maycee decides she can make 115 ( this gal is a fucking killa.... when she starts to wind up her punches or elbows , I'm like " Oh God- here it comes !")

 

[Iron Nick]

So much effort... So little reason...

Analyzing the top five in the arguably most competitive division in MMA seems to be far from unreasonable to me.

 

[Rek Rekington]

Analyzing the top five in the arguably most competitive division in MMA seems to be far from unreasonable to me.

Just trolling WMMA.

 

[Iron Nick]

I'll be honest - dont know how good Zang is but from what I've seen.... I'll just forget about JJ. I just dont see her beating any of the top top 115ers anymore - maybe complacency has something to do with it.
I'll also skip over Andrade and Rose but I'll give Andrade a fair chance at maybe " overlooking the unknown ". That leaves Suarez , Nunes girlfriend ( sorry name escaping me but showed me alot vs Tatiana) and God forbid Maycee decides she can make 115 ( this gal is a fucking killa.... when she starts to wind up her punches or elbows , I'm like " Oh God- here it comes !")

I do actually see Joanna Jedrzejczyk as one of the favourites to beat Zhang (and everyone else - besides Rose maybe, although Joanna already made it competitive in her second fight against Namajunas) and for how complacent Jedrzejczyk might seem, she's a really, really hard worker and from what i've seen and heard she's textbook professional when it comes to her training-regime, but the thing is: Jedrzejczyk beat Andrade (quite decisively as well) and has almost perfect takedown defense, so she should (theoretically) have the best chance against Suarez as well. But i guess we'll just have to find out..
Haha, you meant Nina Ansaroff! yeah, she was very competitive against Suarez, but i'm kinda skeptical as to how her fights against the other fighters of the top five will look like, if i'm being honest.
With Maycee Barber i'll have to wait before i make any definite predicitons, as despite winning her last three fights by TKO, she hasn't beat any ranked opponent yet, so i'm curious as to how she'll fare against better competition, but yeah, i think she could possibly make 115!

 

[Iron Nick]

Just trolling WMMA.

 

[leto1776]

Well, you're right in the regard that Rose didn't beat a top five fighter outside of Jedrzejczyk, but then again she beat her twice (even TKOing her in their first fight) and Joanna Jedrzejczyk is still the by far most accomplished fighter at women's strawweight plus she's besides Rose Namajunas only beaten by Valentina Shevchenko who's the best striker in WMMA and probably one of, if not the best technician in WMMA in general.
..and despite being finished by Andrade, it wasn't like she was thoroughly outskilled by her or anything.

this is the last memory of Rose. She needs to make people forget about this for a little bit before she deserves a title shot. Preferably, proving herself against a top five fighter.

 

[Iron Nick]

View attachment 677339
this is the last memory of Rose. She needs to make people forget about this for a little bit before she deserves a title shot. Preferably, proving herself against a top five fighter.

Well, yeah, another fight for her before gaining a title shot makes sense, matchup wise i wouldn't mind seeing her fight Weili though.

 

[aerius]

As for the GSP to Fitch comparison: interesting comparison, but would you actually put Zhang two levels lower to the likes of Jedrzejczyk, etc.? Seems despite the obvious recency bias a bit too harsh in my eyes. I mean: You're right when saying that Andrade was actually very unintelligently in her approach against Zhang, but despite her measured approach in the Rose fight Jessica Andrade still eats a lot of punches, so it's not like she fought like a completely different fighter than usual (although it's true that her reckless behavior made it possible for Zhang to exploit it in the first place) and a TKO over Andrade at strawweight (where she's not been finished before) is still very impressive in my opinion.
The notion (from your other post) that Zhang would dominate Jedrzejczyk (who's actually really strong) in the clinch and take her down with ease is really without any substance though.. i mean, who's been able to not just take Joanna down but to keep her down? no one really. No matter how one dimensional she is, you have pretty much no other choice but to beat her on the feet. (one dimensional in the sense that she only wants to strike on the feet - her defensive wrestling is obviously elite).

If we're looking at striking alone, then yes, Zhang is a level or 2 below Joanna. There's a lot more to being a top level striker than knowing how to throw clean hard strikes, the hard part which most fighters never quite figure out is the footwork, reads, setups, and composure under adversity. Joanna, Valentina, and Nunes have those things, when you watch their fights you can see them probing for reactions and seeing what their opponents give them, then adjusting & setting things up to take advantage of it. Taking Nunes as an example, she noticed that Holly really didn't like being pressured and would throw hasty push kicks to try & stop it, often leaving her leg in the air. So she feinted Holly into standing on one leg then kicked her head off.

Zhang isn't there yet. She can hit an opening if you give it to her but she hasn't really shown the ability to probe & break down an opponent with strikes the way Joanna does or feint/force opponents into making mistakes and then taking their heads off like Nunes. Zhang can throw combos and even make the right choices at times but it's not really structured, there's a lot of pieces in her game that don't fit together. For instance she like to throw the inside low kick but she pairs it up with the spinning back kick, it uses a ton of energy and when it's done, so is the combo and there's nothing to build off of it. You can't throw punches or kicks after it, nor does it work to setup other punches or kicks, once an opponent picks up on the pattern it's easily defended.

If we go back to Joanna, her inside low kick is usually paired up with her jab, the 2 strikes set each other up and they allow for further followup punches & kicks. If an opponent starts defending the jab low kick, it could easily become a lead hook or body kick to get around the defence, and the starting motion on all those strikes is similar so it's difficult to read & defend. To see these concepts at work, watch her fight against Waterson where Michelle gets casually picked apart. This concept was also used by GSP; his jab, low kick, left hook, and takedowns all worked together to confuse opponents and walk them right into strikes & takedowns.

Then you get the really high level stuff which you'll only see from the Shevchenko sisters and a few guys on the men's side. Like, why do I keep getting crossed up and out of position, and why is the distance always off?

 

[Iron Nick]

If we're looking at striking alone, then yes, Zhang is a level or 2 below Joanna. There's a lot more to being a top level striker than knowing how to throw clean hard strikes, the hard part which most fighters never quite figure out is the footwork, reads, setups, and composure under adversity. Joanna, Valentina, and Nunes have those things, when you watch their fights you can see them probing for reactions and seeing what their opponents give them, then adjusting & setting things up to take advantage of it. Taking Nunes as an example, she noticed that Holly really didn't like being pressured and would throw hasty push kicks to try & stop it, often leaving her leg in the air. So she feinted Holly into standing on one leg then kicked her head off.

Zhang isn't there yet. She can hit an opening if you give it to her but she hasn't really shown the ability to probe & break down an opponent with strikes the way Joanna does or feint/force opponents into making mistakes and then taking their heads off like Nunes. Zhang can throw combos and even make the right choices at times but it's not really structured, there's a lot of pieces in her game that don't fit together. For instance she like to throw the inside low kick but she pairs it up with the spinning back kick, it uses a ton of energy and when it's done, so is the combo and there's nothing to build off of it. You can't throw punches or kicks after it, nor does it work to setup other punches or kicks, once an opponent picks up on the pattern it's easily defended.

If we go back to Joanna, her inside low kick is usually paired up with her jab, the 2 strikes set each other up and they allow for further followup punches & kicks. If an opponent starts defending the jab low kick, it could easily become a lead hook or body kick to get around the defence, and the starting motion on all those strikes is similar so it's difficult to read & defend. To see these concepts at work, watch her fight against Waterson where Michelle gets casually picked apart. This concept was also used by GSP; his jab, low kick, left hook, and takedowns all worked together to confuse opponents and walk them right into strikes & takedowns.

Then you get the really high level stuff which you'll only see from the Shevchenko sisters and a few guys on the men's side. Like, why do I keep getting crossed up and out of position, and why is the distance always off?

Great analysis, contrary to the aforementioned GSP, i am impressed.
Thinking further about it, the ones with elite-striking you've mentioned really do make it look super easy as well.

EDIT: there's an analysis from Luke Thomas on the fight between Michelle Waterson and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, i you haven't already, you might wanna check it out:

 

[ColombianFist]

good read but i will say this:

Of all the girls right now Suarez and Zhang have the tools to be champ for a long time. Joanna's TD is good but SW is not filled with top wrestlers besides Suarez and her chin is weak; Gadelha rock her and Karolina did that as well. Rose is prone to TD and is Joanna's worst match up. Andrade couldn't beat Joanna because of her great TD but beat Rose because of what i mentioned before so in terms of Power and TD, Zhang and Suarez are IMO the best SW and probably we'll see those 2 girls beating Joanna, Andrade and/or Rose. In Zhang's case being the least technical striker, she's strong enough to clinch Joanna; if the fight goes to a pure striking Joanna can win.

 

[Franklin U.]

I do actually see Joanna Jedrzejczyk as one of the favourites to beat Zhang (and everyone else - besides Rose maybe, although Joanna already made it competitive in her second fight against Namajunas) and for how complacent Jedrzejczyk might seem, she's a really, really hard worker and from what i've seen and heard she's textbook professional when it comes to her training-regime, but the thing is: Jedrzejczyk beat Andrade (quite decisively as well) and has almost perfect takedown defense, so she should (theoretically) have the best chance against Suarez as well. But i guess we'll just have to find out..
Haha, you meant Nina Ansaroff! yeah, she was very competitive against Suarez, but i'm kinda skeptical as to how her fights against the other fighters of the top five will look like, if i'm being honest.
With Maycee Barber i'll have to wait before i make any definite predicitons, as despite winning her last three fights by TKO, she hasn't beat any ranked opponent yet, so i'm curious as to how she'll fare against better competition, but yeah, i think she could possibly make 115!

I respect your take except for JJ/ Andrade as that fight becomes obsolete cause Andrade would be slight favorite in fight vs when they fought first time and JJ was a healthy favorite. A totally different fight today. Joanna ( and this is no slight) first came over and it was Christmas time as no one really knew the levels she was above every gal. The women put in their thankless hours of work and caught up with JJ( the gals that truly evolved- rose ,andrade).
I like Joanna but we'll see. They gave her a favorable stylistic match up with MW and she took care of business as the odds ( -280) figured she would.
Yeah.... and dont sleep on Arnsoff- I was completely blown away with her performance agsinst a gal NOBODY wanted to fight .She defended as well as you could for 2 rounds and was shocked how exhausted Tatiana was in 3rd.

 

[Iron Nick]

Fantastic break down man. I really want to see Joanna vs Suarez and Joanna vs Weii .

Thank you man! and yup, me as well.

I think Rose is skilled but she just annoys me to the point of me not wanting to see her fight at all.

(I also think Joanna beat her in the second fight but thats just my opinion)

Why does she annoy you? i find her to be a pretty interesting person, but even more than that a super exciting and interesting fighter. I know what you mean with their second fight; Joanna even outstruck her, but then again, Rose landed the better shots for the entirety of the the fight, so it's only fair she won (in my opinion).

I like Joanna ranked at #4 I think it puts the fire back into her. (Hard to stay motivated when your on top)

Yeah, she's for sure super motivated right now, although she's generally known for being super professional, always training very hard and often.

Suarez and Weii are the future though they are both beasts.

They are for sure! Still would like to see a couple of fights from Weili against other top competitors

Android is good but I honestly feel like she is a step behind the other three.

I was glad she beat Rose but I am not sure she can replicate that win if they fought again.

With Rose learning so much each fight and her only real mistake being not letting go of that submission-hold i think it's hard to disagree with you here as well and it makes sense to say she's a bit behind the others, since she's lost against both Joanna and Weili, however she's got chances against Suarez and is most likely a dangerous fight for Rose in a possible rematch as well. I mean: with that power and pressure you never really should count her out completely.
I by the way was really sad when Rose lost against Andrade (especially in that manner) since i'm a big fan of her and was in awe when seeing how good she was on the feet..

I prefer a hot potato belt over a dominate champion as it shows that the skill level of the fighters are fairly closely aligned.

Jones & DC’s Reign over LHW has been pretty predictable barring a few good fights.

Andersons reign while impressive was pretty predictable and boring and so was Rhonda’s and dare I say it even GSP’s reign.

I love when fights are tough to predict and they could go either way.

(Max is the exception imo he is just so damn exciting to watch fight)

I mean tastes are different, right? Competitive fights are really exciting, but i have to say that dominant champions are as well, there's just something about fighters (and athletes in general) that make being good look so effortless!
I do though get your point with fights where you really don't want to put money on either fighter, there's an element of the unknown to it that makes it really interesting to see how those fights actually enfold.

 

[Iron Nick]

good read but i will say this:

Thank you.

Of all the girls right now Suarez and Zhang have the tools to be champ for a long time. Joanna's TD is good but SW is not filled with top wrestlers besides Suarez and her chin is weak; Gadelha rock her and Karolina did that as well.

Hm.. let's see. I think that Suarez is a bit too vulnerable in boxing range to say that she'll be a dominant champ, although she might improve that or finds ways to make that irrelevant, i mean she's still really young (as are most of the other fighters here). With Zhang we'll have to wait how she looks against other top level fighters in her division; Andrade was a giant leap in competition and she beat her with bravado, but MMA is all about matchups and the strengths and weaknesses of all the fighters here are so different, that pretty much everyone has an opponent who they'd be favourite against on here as well as having an opponent where they'd be the underdog.
Regarding Joanna's TDD: she's been able to cope with Jessica Andrade, who on the other hand was ragdolling Claudia Gadelha several times in their fight and she got 10 (!) takedowns against Tecia Torres as well, so i'd say that Jedrzejczyk's TDD is as legit as it gets.
Now talking about her chin: i think that the few times Joanna looked a bit chinny it was mostly due to her weight cut, since she's a big 115er, but generally she's able to absorb strikes pretty well - i mean Andrade, Shevchenko and Rose (2nd fight) hit her frequently without her ever looking really impressed.

Rose is prone to TD and is Joanna's worst match up.

You're right with Rose being the worst matchup for Joanna, but that is not to say that she hasn't improved, especially since she's gone the distance and even oustruck Rose the 2nd time they've met, although Rose did land the heavier shots. Talking about Rose' TDD i really don't know. Andrade is probably the strongest woman at 115 with probably only Zhang coming close, but in her fight against Jessica Andrade, Rose generally did a good job of getting back up, so Jessica Andrade taking her down wasn't enough (well.. except for that one time where Rose should have let go of Andrade when she got slammed..)

Andrade couldn't beat Joanna because of her great TD but beat Rose because of what i mentioned before so in terms of Power and TD, Zhang and Suarez are IMO the best SW and probably we'll see those 2 girls beating Joanna, Andrade and/or Rose.

While i think Suarez could be a bad matchup for Rose (but theoretically the same applies vice versa as well, since the aforementioned vulnerability of Suarez in boxing range, where Rose excels) i'm not sure if she'd win against Jedrzejczyk. Suarez struggled at times against Ansaroff and with Joanna Jedrzejczyk's excellent TDD and insane cardio, Suarez has to make sure to pace herself super well while also not letting herself get picked apart from distance. With Weili we really have to wait as already said, but i think Jedrzejczyk has a really good shot against her. Joanna has at strawweight only been defeated by one fighter and is otherwise unbeaten at strawweight, while at the same time having faced (and beat) pretty much everyone and most of those opponents in very convincing fashion as well.

In Zhang's case being the least technical striker, she's strong enough to clinch Joanna; if the fight goes to a pure striking Joanna can win.

How Jedrzejczyk against Zhang will play out in the clinch will be interesting to see, but Joanna is dangerous there and has a good height advantage there as well, so it's dangerous for Zhang as well, despite her athleticism.

 

[Sausage_Carius]

I respect your take except for JJ/ Andrade as that fight becomes obsolete cause Andrade would be slight favorite in fight vs when they fought first time and JJ was a healthy favorite. A totally different fight today. Joanna ( and this is no slight) first came over and it was Christmas time as no one really knew the levels she was above every gal. The women put in their thankless hours of work and caught up with JJ( the gals that truly evolved- rose ,andrade).
I like Joanna but we'll see. They gave her a favorable stylistic match up with MW and she took care of business as the odds ( -280) figured she would.
Yeah.... and dont sleep on Arnsoff- I was completely blown away with her performance agsinst a gal NOBODY wanted to fight .She defended as well as you could for 2 rounds and was shocked how exhausted Tatiana was in 3rd.

Michelle was not a stylistically favorable matchup until after Joanna beat her. She was a problematic style matchup to the Joanna that faced Rose and Tecia. Check out Heavy Hands and Zane Simon's podcast. They cover it rather well.

Being likely to win is not necessarily the same thing as a favorable style matchup.

The fight was interesting because they were at a crossroads not just historically but in styles. There were specific changes Joanna and her camp had to make to not only ensure a win but dominate. She needed to take significant time off to succeed and she did. Is she done developing? No. She could take another half a year off and do a much better job and has indicated she would if she won't get a title fight.