Economy The great housing market crash of 2022

[HankScorpio]

I made this as kind of an extension of the Inflation thread, which I commented in a lot on and constantly bumped it. But, as things seem to be accelerating with the economy now shrinking, gas and inflation going up even further now with all these sanctions and shit, the effects from COVID

So there is a number of things all interconnected. But they only stopped this foreclosure stall towards the end of last year.. so of course there is lag behind for cause and effect. Now that people have been having to pay for a few months, it is all catching up. And keep in mind, these are foreclosures so they were already delinquent for at least a couple months, no?

it is just another perfect storm of ongoing economic policy and regulation by the establishment.

I see some arguing here that this is different because the banks will only benefit from this. I literally made this exact point almost a year ago, when they were talking about lifting this fire closure and rent eviction policy, and people said I was crazy for suggesting such…. This is a post from July last year and just look at what I was saying and who said I was wrong…. Well, what is happening and who seems to be right?

Yes, the banks are the ones profiting off these foreclosures. I think people who were foreclosed on either irrationally tried to hold on to their homes, and not sell. Or just gave up without realizing what they are giving up.

 

[Aluminati]

how would securing the border be profitable for the ruling class?

Are there not fences on cattle farms?

 

[CaptHANDSUP]

Eh millienials are what, late 80-early 90s babies? Probably a good generation as they were born right before technology exploded and understand the mix of the past traditional values and the current state of the world we live in. Not our fault the generations before us fucked the country and we have to fix it.

And it seems like gen z may potentially become the worst of the bunch. Absolutely rife with mental illness. And I don’t blame them, they’re just a product of their environment. A world that operates on smart phones.

I think once we see how damaged gen z truly is because of their inability to satisfy their instinctual needs, we won’t allow the next generation to do the same.

Social media is going to be like cigerrettes in the future. Everyone will say I can’t believe we let just anyone use that shit back in the early 2000s with no regulations or restrictions.

 

[CaptHANDSUP]

How much have housing prices increased in the last 20, 30, 40 years versus wage increase cross-referenced with inflation? Someone has probably already posted these at some point, but I seem to recall something like a 400% increase in housing prices? What is inflation at now? 8%? 10%? As far as I know, most employees are lucky to get a 5% raise each year but that doesn't seem to keep up with housing prices and inflation?

So basically everyone is going to become dead poor one day? Or each generation becomes more and more poor?

just remember that Times Square was a slum in the 70s. We’re never as far away from societal collapse and chaos as we’d like to think.

 

[So Fresh]

And it seems like gen z may potentially become the worst of the bunch. Absolutely rife with mental illness. And I don’t blame them, they’re just a product of their environment. A world that operates on smart phones.

I think once we see how damaged gen z truly is because of their inability to satisfy their instinctual needs, we won’t allow the next generation to do the same.

Social media is going to be like cigerrettes in the future. Everyone will say I can’t believe we let just anyone use that shit back in the early 2000s with no regulations or restrictions.

Old people talk

older generation are always complaining about future generation

 

[CaptHANDSUP]

Old people talk

older generation are always complaining about future generation

I’m basically gen z depending on which definition you follow.

Although I do agree that most cases of anyone complaining about the new generation is as you describe but we have to try and distinguish the times in which it is not. The times when complaints leveled against young people is legitimate.

And I think the misuse of social media is one of these cases.

 

[Aluminati]

And it seems like gen z may potentially become the worst of the bunch. Absolutely rife with mental illness. And I don’t blame them, they’re just a product of their environment. A world that operates on smart phones.

I think once we see how damaged gen z truly is because of their inability to satisfy their instinctual needs, we won’t allow the next generation to do the same.

Social media is going to be like cigerrettes in the future. Everyone will say I can’t believe we let just anyone use that shit back in the early 2000s with no regulations or restrictions.

They should call Gen Z what it is, the 4chan generation.

 

[Krixes]

They should call Gen Z what it is, the 4chan generation.

Sorry to go off subject but I don't understand that website (4chan). How is that website so famous. I've only been there one time to check it out, and it reminded me of the early AOL days (the way it was setup). Did I go to the wrong site somehow?

 

[CaptHANDSUP]

They should call Gen Z what it is, the 4chan generation.

I thought us millennials were the 4chan gen, gen z are the tiktokreddit gen.

 

[So Fresh]

I’m basically gen z depending on which definition you follow.

Although I do agree that most cases of anyone complaining about the new generation is as you describe but we have to try and distinguish the times in which it is not. The times when complaints leveled against young people is legitimate.

And I think the misuse of social media is one of these cases.

this is definitely a problem I agree

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Just saw this which is pretty startling and somewhat interconnected. Had mentioned that investment firms are moving to the housing market because commercial retail is no longer paying off the way it was prepandemic. But this also is bad news, because is retail stores cannot make rent due to increase prices, wages, etc, it would seem to indicate people soon being laid off or wage cuts will follow, or even these businesses may have to shut down... which will likely lead to more foreclosures and also not being able to pay high rent prices.

Also mentioned that a lot of stuff if felt by first producers, then retailers, before the lag catches up to consumers. So to me, this indicates inflation is only going to keep going up as supplies for retailers also continue to go up and they will have to continue to raise prices to simply pay rent, etc.

Not a good sign

"In fact, according to a new report by Bisnow, 34% of small retail businesses were unable to make their rent in April. This number was up 6% from February, the report says, citing survey data from Alignable.

Among reasons for not being able to meet their financial obligations, retailers noted inflation, gas prices, supply chain issues, labor shortages and reduced revenues."

 

[GhostZ06]

i get:
- a trillion dollar defense budget.
you get:
- another housing crisis.

773.0 billion...


but yeah, true enough point. We should cute 90 billion from Defense

 

[Kana Li]

this is pretty lazy deflection as the ship wouldn’t be on this course. Look at the price of gas when trump left office, almost half of what it is now. Not surprising considering Biden took executive action on his very first day to stop drilling on federal land, among other domestic energy policies Trump had. Plus keystone would be in the verge of finishing the phase of production they were on.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude oil - electronic

As mentioned in my OP, a lot of this started with increasing energy costs, which influences supply chains and producer costs. Both of these things being affected are now translating to the increasing inflation that seems now to be accelerating.

Another big problem, as seen with our economy shrinking also is due to COVID lockdowns in democrat areas that killed the work force and local businesses. So while the Biden admin says “omg we created 5-6 million jobs, economy is awesome… that doesn’t really address the loss of like 15miion plus jobs which haven’t yet recovered as some places, mostly democrat ran, continued lockdowns and/or various mandates until even late last year.

That is why FL and other republican states had the best economies of 2021, where as California and New York had much worse performing economies. As you can see here on CNN places like New York, Massachusetts, and Cali are all still struggling to get back to their baseline economy prior to pandemic, where as places like South Dakota, Arizona, and Florida are leading the way under republican leadership.

https://www.cnn.com/business/us-economic-recovery-coronavirus

so it is pretty clear that under different leadership both at the federal and state level would have prevented this problem. So being like “well, what would republicans do differently” is it is like, uhhh by not creating the problem in the first place with stupid policies? Lol

How do you figure that Trump would be good for production when he was a key player in the current shortage. Before the pandemic he got OPEC to increase production which lowered prices but was not great for US producers. Once the pandemic came many US producers nearly went under. To save them Trump then cut a 2 year deal with OPEC+ to cut production. We are still in the reduced production that Trump himself made happened.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

How do you figure that Trump would be good for production when he was a key player in the current shortage. Before the pandemic he got OPEC to increase production which lowered prices but was not great for US producers. Once the pandemic came many US producers nearly went under. To save them Trump then cut a 2 year deal with OPEC+ to cut production. We are still in the reduced production that Trump himself made happened.

Huh? 2019 was record energy production for the US, along with his deal with OPEC got prices low everywhere which helps US producers ( in other sectors) benefit from lower production and transportation costs, along with consumers at the pump. Both help the US citizen

then he did accurately get OPEC to cut production in the early part of the pandemic because less people were commuting, traveling, etc and there was too much energy being produced, causing a market crash.

now that world economies are finally open again, they now need to increase production, oh wow and it is exactly 2 years since that OPEC deal as scientists are now saying the Pandemic is over and that “deal” is done

Even CNN reports that Biden needs to take a page from trumps playbook, which is to actively pay attention to these markets and understand how they work other than only use energy as a political tool for climate change, etc… but of course the people in the Biden admin are incompetent and don’t address these issues other than virtue signaling.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/06/business/gas-prices-opec-biden-trump/index.html

And guess what, trump isn’t president and if he was, you can assume he would have already reached another deal with OPEC to address these issues as he did cut a deal to increase production then a deal to decrease (both which helped the economy at the time), saving US oil producers

edit: plus we wouldn’t even need to be relying on OPEC if Biden didn’t stop leases on our land, which was part of the reasoning behind Trump’s deal, which was to help US producers stay afloat, so that they can continue to produce, and part of that is new leases and drilling (which Biden ended on day 1). The point of that deal is that useless if then Biden comes in and hurts US producers by stopping new leases and drilling. So Biden should have then been actively addressing the problem in other ways rather than sitting by idle and waiting for a crisis to happen. And now because he gave Russia their pipeline, which pissed off OPEC members because Russia then becomes a major competitor with them, they tell Biden they won’t increase production.

 

[fedorthegoat777]

As a guy whos been trying to buy a house since just before the pandemic, and would love for the to be a housing crash.... I can say with great confidence there won't be one.

This is nothing like 2007, where banks had lax lending standards and people were taking variable rate mortgages. People are able to service their debts and the problem is there's just not enough houses to fulfill demand and there won't be for the foreseeable future.

I thought that the higher interest rates would at least calm things down but they made it even more competitive because of desperation and fear of missing out. Just last week I put an offer in on a house ($35k over asking with appraisal contingency waived) and it wasn't even enough to be considered as a backup option. They were likely getting multiple cash offers.

Everything I've read about the housing market says the growth will likely decrease this year, but all that means is prices will still go up, just not as fast as last year.

Anyway, Id be willing to do a sig bet with anyone who thinks there will be a a housing crash this year.

You need to buy with cash to be competitive. Get some hard money, buy the house, then refinance and pay it back. Or pull from other investments. Cash offers are looked at first, no one wants to tie up a house and deal with closing with a mortgage company if they have a sure thing.

 

[fedorthegoat777]

i have wondered the same thing..... people struggle to keep the home but wait too long and eventually lose it and the bank absorbs whatever equity was built into it. i think its a fear/freeze response for a lot of people.

personally if someone loses a house i think they should be able to keep the equity once the bank takes it and sells it minus fees and what not.

By the time they lose it, really no equity left in most cases. Bank has a lot of fees for the eviction.

 

[MeatheadMike]

You need to buy with cash to be competitive. Get some hard money, buy the house, then refinance and pay it back. Or pull from other investments. Cash offers are looked at first, no one wants to tie up a house and deal with closing with a mortgage company if they have a sure thing.

Its not really feasible for people other than the rich... In my area (suburb of NY) 3 bedroom houses are going for around $750k+ and 4 are going for around $1M+. At most my wife and I could come up with around $500k in cash... which wouldn't be enough.

 

[TardStrong]

Interest rates rise, housing prices drop as there are less buyers, the economy slows, people loss their jobs and cant refinance their house due to a drop in prices and interest rates.

In 2008 the economy took a shit and people lost their jobs then lost their houses. Couldnt refinance them because the bubble burst. The job losses were the main issue I saw not adjustable rate mortgages. People couldnt afford their loans because of job loses. Here in Ca I remember the jobs fairs were out of control, way too many people looking for work.

 

[fedorthegoat777]

Its not really feasible for people other than the rich... In my area (suburb of NY) 3 bedroom houses are going for around $750k+ and 4 are going for around $1M+. At most my wife and I could come up with around $500k in cash... which wouldn't be enough.

Yikes!! 500k can get a nice house in a lot of areas though.

 

[So Fresh]

And it seems like gen z may potentially become the worst of the bunch. Absolutely rife with mental illness. And I don’t blame them, they’re just a product of their environment. A world that operates on smart phones.

I think once we see how damaged gen z truly is because of their inability to satisfy their instinctual needs, we won’t allow the next generation to do the same.

Social media is going to be like cigerrettes in the future. Everyone will say I can’t believe we let just anyone use that shit back in the early 2000s with no regulations or restrictions.

You really think gen Z are gonna be the worst after generations who actually survived the most violent and horrible wars since mankind with all the trauma’s that ensued?

Maybe mental illness is more visible with Gen z because of the phones and the lesser taboo’s of speaking out about mental health. But if you think during the silent generation their wasn’t rampant mental illness you’re delusional.