Economy stonks only go up v6.1

[Lead]

This is a GOAT comedy scene but how have you performed during this month? Are you down or up?

 

[reveler]

This is a GOAT comedy scene but how have you performed during this month? Are you down or up?

way down, could have been worse if i just held and did nothing, though. or if i panicked and fully cashed out at the bottom.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Just to be clear here, what are the regular's of this thread's returns in the past month? This is one of the worst months for the market in our lifetimes so it's kinda surprising if the consensus is everyone is up at the moment.

down about 4K in my 401k as I protected it back in January. Up about 20k from my Robinhood account. Was close to 30k before this week. All puts. Puts puts puts. My coworker is up about 150k in his Robinhood. Dude was slinging money like crazy on good puts. I mostly played SPY.

 

[Lead]

way down, could have been worse if i just held and did nothing, though. or if i panicked and fully cashed out at the bottom.

I know it might be complicated but to summarize, what were/are you holding? Do you think this is the bottom at this point?

 

[Lead]

down about 4K in my 401k as I protected it back in January. Up about 20k from my Robinhood account. Was close to 30k before this week. All puts. Puts puts puts. My coworker is up about 150k in his Robinhood. Dude was slinging money like crazy on good puts. I mostly played SPY.

Is a put like a short?

I was thinking today, there have to be some people out there out of sheer luck who have gone to do a roll over or something where they didn't take any hit at all during this. I had been looking to move one of my old work ones recently and really wished that timed out. I still would've put it back in but you'd get a premium off fluke timing.

 

[7437]

I think MANY stocks have bottomed if not most.

Why? Think the virus is about done, or that it wont affect the market anymore?

 

[Rob Battisti]

Is a put like a short?

I was thinking today, there have to be some people out there out of sheer luck who have gone to do a roll over or something where they didn't take any hit at all during this. I had been looking to move one of my old work ones recently and really wished that timed out. I still would've put it back in but you'd get a premium off fluke timing.

definitely do your research before doing anything. But if you have a gambling addiction, like me and there are no casinos around(like there aren’t around me) take an amount of play money and throw it in Robinhood. It’s fun and easy. Just don’t put in more than you’re willing to lose.

 

[reveler]

I know it might be complicated but to summarize, what were/are you holding? Do you think this is the bottom at this point?

corona countermeaures are artificial. more lockdowns or less lockdowns will affect the market. cant predict what the government is going to do. the virus itself has little effect, the countermeasures have a huge effect.

i have general equity exposure like most people but also have some riskier MBS stuff that has tanked.

in terms of buying puts - dont bet against the market long term. you are betting against the big guys. we learned in 2008 and are learning again - the government and the fed will not let the market fail. if you want to go short, get in and get back to cash.

 

[BJ@LW&WW]

Just to be clear here, what are the regular's of this thread's returns in the past month? This is one of the worst months for the market in our lifetimes so it's kinda surprising if the consensus is everyone is up at the moment.

compared to feb 1st, i am down 2.53%

 

[BJ@LW&WW]

Why? Think the virus is about done, or that it wont affect the market anymore?

the virus is no where near done. It hasnt even peaked, and tbh i dont think the public has thought about what the country/world will look like even after the initial outbreak subsides. its not like everything will go back to business as usual. the virus wont be irradicated; we will still have to maintain preventative measures to prevent subsequent outbreaks.

 

[Lead]

definitely do your research before doing anything. But if you have a gambling addiction, like me and there are no casinos around(like there aren’t around me) take an amount of play money and throw it in Robinhood. It’s fun and easy. Just don’t put in more than you’re willing to lose.

I can’t really see myself day trading. I just fund a 401k and Roth IRA consistently. Much more boring but keeps my mind at ease I guess.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I can’t really see myself day trading. I just fund a 401k and Roth IRA consistently. Much more boring but keeps my mind at ease I guess.

It’s definitely stressful. It’s the most pure form of gambling I’ve seen outside of a casino.

 

[Parmenides]

It’s definitely stressful. It’s the most pure form of gambling I’ve seen outside of a casino.

Stressful asf but only gambling if you dont know what you are doing

 

[Parmenides]

Ugh continued gains today.

Is it possible we've hit the bottom?

I think MANY stocks have bottomed if not most.

I know it might be complicated but to summarize, what were/are you holding? Do you think this is the bottom at this point?

Why? Think the virus is about done, or that it wont affect the market anymore?

corona countermeaures are artificial. more lockdowns or less lockdowns will affect the market. cant predict what the government is going to do. the virus itself has little effect, the countermeasures have a huge effect.

i have general equity exposure like most people but also have some riskier MBS stuff that has tanked.

in terms of buying puts - dont bet against the market long term. you are betting against the big guys. we learned in 2008 and are learning again - the government and the fed will not let the market fail. if you want to go short, get in and get back to cash.

the virus is no where near done. It hasnt even peaked, and tbh i dont think the public has thought about what the country/world will look like even after the initial outbreak subsides. its not like everything will go back to business as usual. the virus wont be irradicated; we will still have to maintain preventative measures to prevent subsequent outbreaks.

Agreed with last 2 posts..

We were in a 10y bull market..it finally broke down and now we are in for a long hard ride until unemployment peaks

This was a technical relief rally..fundamentally things will get materially worse and the market will keep falling with short lived and sometimes big bounces for 1-3yrs imo

Cash is an option..but you can get short term maturity bonds with decent yields now and then reassess/reinvest upon maturity..and/or combine with buying inverse ETFs into these unsustainable rallies basically shorting the market

 

[chardog]

down about 4K in my 401k as I protected it back in January. Up about 20k from my Robinhood account. Was close to 30k before this week. All puts. Puts puts puts. My coworker is up about 150k in his Robinhood. Dude was slinging money like crazy on good puts. I mostly played SPY.

playing with fire lmao, hope to get to your level one day

 

[kahiljabroni]

Just to be clear here, what are the regular's of this thread's returns in the past month? This is one of the worst months for the market in our lifetimes so it's kinda surprising if the consensus is everyone is up at the moment.

I havn't been a regular but probably will be going forward. I jumped in the market in October and rode the wave up until the crash....i lost my paper gains and about 5% of principle and went to all cash. I jumped back in at 20k and 18k dow so I'm actually back to even....im still half in cash and going to add more to my account because if it does go lower im getting it all in cheap.

 

[kahiljabroni]

Agreed with last 2 posts..

We were in a 10y bull market..it finally broke down and now we are in for a long hard ride until unemployment peaks

This was a technical relief rally..fundamentally things will get materially worse and the market will keep falling with short lived and sometimes big bounces for 1-3yrs imo

Cash is an option..but you can get short term maturity bonds with decent yields now and then reassess/reinvest upon maturity..and/or combine with buying inverse ETFs into these unsustainable rallies basically shorting the market

Could be right but i don't see this being the new normal through the summer and into the fall. Unemployment won't mean anything in the first four months as everyone will get state benefit plus 600 from fed.....probably a raise for more than half of those that lost their job.

And 90 % of people are still working and yet will get an extra 1200-4k for no reason. Not to mention tax returns. People will be flush will cash and I think there's gonna be a built up demand from people being locked up so long. Cars, cell phones, and all kinds of shit online will be moving quickly outside the hottest infected zones.

That gives us 4 months to get a handle on this and if we can't they'll just fire up the printing press again. I actually hope you're right because i want to average way down but i don't see financial pain in the short term. I can see our Government fking our long term with these continued bailouts

 

[Parmenides]

Could be right but i don't see this being the new normal through the summer and into the fall. Unemployment won't mean anything in the first four months as everyone will get state benefit plus 600 from fed.....probably a raise for more than half of those that lost their job.

And 90 % of people are still working and yet will get an extra 1200-4k for no reason. Not to mention tax returns. People will be flush will cash and I think there's gonna be a built up demand from people being locked up so long. Cars, cell phones, and all kinds of shit online will be moving quickly outside the hottest infected zones.

That gives us 4 months to get a handle on this and if we can't they'll just fire up the printing press again. I actually hope you're right because i want to average way down but i don't see financial pain in the short term. I can see our Government fking our long term with these continued bailouts

People and businesses are not flushed with cash..most are indebted and/or live paycheck to paycheck..yet the global economy has halted and liquidity is drying up so the damage to both will be severe and lasting

The government band aid is an artificial prop up short term..plus most gvmts cant help like this and given globalization it will hurt US too..hell it will take another 6 months just to contain the virus

This was the first leg of the bear market..they usually have 3 legs..i expect another 40-60% down in two 20-30% increments over the next 1-2 years until we turn the corner

 

[kahiljabroni]

People and businesses are not flushed with cash..most are indebted and/or live paycheck to paycheck..yet the global economy has halted and liquidity is drying up so the damage to both will be severe and lasting

The government band aid is an artificial prop up short term..plus most gvmts cant help like this and given globalization it will hurt US too..hell it will take another 6 months just to contain the virus

This was the first leg of the bear market..they usually have 3 legs..i expect another 40-60% down in two 20-30% increments over the next 1-2 years until we turn the corner

People will be flush with cash.
The ones who were laid off were mostly retail and service industry employees...600 plus state unemployment, plus stimulus is alot to them. And like i also said, the entire country is getting 1200-4k....so millions of families of 4 who have not lost their job will be getting 4 grand. And of course tax returns. That is a ton of disposable income for a country of people that usually have 0 money saved.

 

[brackis1]

Managed to have my best 2 weeks ever (up 20% somehow on straight equity bets) despite getting a little too drunk in love with things at the end of Friday instead of staying disciplined to my shorts and volatility.
Im starting to have a tougher time seeing where this market goes tho. I could see cases anywhere from 18000-24000 on the dow