Economy stonks only go up v6.1

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Parmenides said:
People and businesses are not flushed with cash..most are indebted and/or live paycheck to paycheck..yet the global economy has halted and liquidity is drying up so the damage to both will be severe and lasting

The government band aid is an artificial prop up short term..plus most gvmts cant help like this and given globalization it will hurt US too..hell it will take another 6 months just to contain the virus

This was the first leg of the bear market..they usually have 3 legs..i expect another 40-60% down in two 20-30% increments over the next 1-2 years until we turn the corner
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that's extreme and outlandish. Divide those figures in half and I could agree. Things are far too global and digital for a 50% reduction in global valuations off something that will targets mostly retirees and the infirmed who weren't contributing, as horrible and callous as that sound. (since I'm only playing along with your doomsday scenario)

Where things get more interesting is on a stock by stock basis, where ranged will go from up 100% to down 100% from this shakeout.
 
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brackis1 said:
that's extreme and outlandish. Divide those figures in half and I could agree. Things are far too global and digital for a 50% reduction in global valuations off something that will targets mostly retirees and the infirmed who weren't contributing, as horrible and callous as that sound. (since I'm only playing along with your doomsday scenario)

Where things get more interesting is on a stock my stock basis, where ranged will go from up 100% to down 100% from this shakeout.
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i like the comments about how coronavirus will "destroy" the healthcare industry as well. not aware of any industry that has been destroyed due to surging demand.
 
kahiljabroni said:
People will be flush with cash.
The ones who were laid off were mostly retail and service industry employees...600 plus state unemployment, plus stimulus is alot to them. And like i also said, the entire country is getting 1200-4k....so millions of families of 4 who have not lost their job will be getting 4 grand. And of course tax returns. That is a ton of disposable income for a country of people that usually have 0 money saved.
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All those people live on credit and the cash will dry up quick
 
brackis1 said:
that's extreme and outlandish. Divide those figures in half and I could agree. Things are far too global and digital for a 50% reduction in global valuations off something that will targets mostly retirees and the infirmed who weren't contributing, as horrible and callous as that sound. (since I'm only playing along with your doomsday scenario)

Where things get more interesting is on a stock by stock basis, where ranged will go from up 100% to down 100% from this shakeout.
Click to expand...

Nah..the markets were bubbles in the first place thats why they have a long way to go

Nasdaq lost 80% of value after 1999 pop and s&p 70% after 2007 pop
 
Parmenides said:
Nah..the markets were bubbles in the first place thats why they have a long way to go

Nasdaq lost 80% of value after 1999 pop and s&p 70% after 2007 pop
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Parmenides said:
Look up business and consumer debt data its not hard to find..all time record highs
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I'm a known bear and while I agree there will be further pain, the markets are forward looking and have priced in a lot of damage already. I think we have downside from here yes.
The 2007 S&p drop was 60% at its worst peak to trough and the 1999 bubble was built off a 150% rise in under 2 years.
There are so many variables at play beyond trying to use historical crashes as your thesis. The spread of the virus/economic damage is too ongoing to get that extreme IMO. I say 20% more down in reasonable as things stand now.
 
brackis1 said:
I'm a known bear and while I agree there will be further pain, the markets are forward looking and have priced in a lot of damage already. I think we have downside from here yes.
The 2007 S&p drop was 60% at its worst peak to trough and the 1999 bubble was built off a 150% rise in under 2 years.
There are so many variables at play beyond trying to use historical crashes as your thesis. The spread of the virus/economic damage is too ongoing to get that extreme IMO. I say 20% more down in reasonable as things stand now.
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I agree.....that said, historically speaking we were in a bubble in February. I figured the election would be the catalyst if nothing else but there had to be a major correction at some point.

So if we don't get a full shake out down to say 14k...if we find ourselves back at a 28k dow in 2 months then what happens?
At that point valuations are incredibly rich, prices and p/e's high again. Is this a new paradigm because of the ease and speed of online trading apps that crashes will be 30% and last 30 days? Can we break the tradition of long drawn out bear markets?
 
brackis1 said:
I'm a known bear and while I agree there will be further pain, the markets are forward looking and have priced in a lot of damage already. I think we have downside from here yes.
The 2007 S&p drop was 60% at its worst peak to trough and the 1999 bubble was built off a 150% rise in under 2 years.
There are so many variables at play beyond trying to use historical crashes as your thesis. The spread of the virus/economic damage is too ongoing to get that extreme IMO. I say 20% more down in reasonable as things stand now.
Click to expand...

The nasdaq was up 7fold since 2009 bottom and s&p 5fold..the bubbles are as great as before thanks to loose gvmt policies and bailouts

The 2000 bubble took 3yrs to unwind and bottom out..2007 1.5yrs..and we are just getting started with this one
 
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brackis1 said:
I'm a known bear and while I agree there will be further pain, the markets are forward looking and have priced in a lot of damage already. I think we have downside from here yes.
The 2007 S&p drop was 60% at its worst peak to trough and the 1999 bubble was built off a 150% rise in under 2 years.
There are so many variables at play beyond trying to use historical crashes as your thesis. The spread of the virus/economic damage is too ongoing to get that extreme IMO. I say 20% more down in reasonable as things stand now.
Click to expand...

kahiljabroni said:
I agree.....that said, historically speaking we were in a bubble in February. I figured the election would be the catalyst if nothing else but there had to be a major correction at some point.

So if we don't get a full shake out down to say 14k...if we find ourselves back at a 28k dow in 2 months then what happens?
At that point valuations are incredibly rich, prices and p/e's high again. Is this a new paradigm because of the ease and speed of online trading apps that crashes will be 30% and last 30 days? Can we break the tradition of long drawn out bear markets?
Click to expand...

Check out these debt/savings charts..

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/20323/americans-lack-savings/

http://dezan.vachnganviet.co/consumer-debt-chart-2018/
 
I don't own any stocks, thinking it's a pretty good time, just gonna wait a little longer and see when things "stabilize". I have a couple grand in my rainy day TFSA and it'd be nice to see it doing something.
 
i think it's funny that this is like the 6th consecutive stock thread on here.

and suddenly, it's full of doom&gloom economists who swear the world's ending.

and there's almost no talk of trades/stocks - the point of the thread.
 
Makani said:
I don't own any stocks, thinking it's a pretty good time, just gonna wait a little longer and see when things "stabilize". I have a couple grand in my rainy day TFSA and it'd be nice to see it doing something.
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Same boat, but already bought in before the stimulus was passed and some a week before that. They've been maintaining and though there might be some more dips in the near future like other's have said I think Trump and team move earth to do everything they can to not let it dip too much lower. We'll see.
 
If people are not sent back to work by Easter there will be layoffs of epic proportions when refineries start shutting in units....because they have no storage capacity left available.
 
kahiljabroni said:
How much debt an individual has doesn't change the fact that this stimulus money is all going to be spent. If it's under control in 4 months people will be fine...if it takes longer they will fire up the printing press again
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Its gonna be spent quickly a 1000 check wont last long..people will just buy food to survive and stop paying their debt obligations which will fuck the real asset owners and banks

And it doesnt work like that..when unemployment rises no gvmt can save the market

We had the initial waves of layoffs and now companies are planning for more..it takes some time to finalize and execute at larger co's
 
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