Economy Stock market chat v3: Tesla crashes

[MikeMcMann]

i've been pretty consistent in all my posts, i'm a buy and hold investor

i buy etfs, and im long on a company like canopy because the macro trend is that cannabis isn't going anywhere, it will permeate even moreso in daily lives of people

and canopy despite hiccups is still the leader, with the strongest balance sheet

IMO all the big Canadian cannabis plays are still a good long term bet.

Canadian companies have a huge advantage in being able to build out a market in a stable governmental environment that is keeping some of the most natural and biggest US players largely sidelined as they wait for a more cohesive and National US position on this market.

I think you will continue to see for a decade or more a State by State loosening and acceptance of Cannabis growing the over all market significantly with each new opening. But eventually and long term the entire market WILL open in the US, these cracks cannot be closed now. Full cannabis acceptance across the board for both leisure and medical. This will see big US players supported by big Private Equity playing catch up and looking to acquire a number of the larger Canadian companies to do so.

the initial surge of cannabis may have run a little ahead of itself as most 'hot', 'new' sectors do but the legs on this sector are imo massive. Recreational cannabis has all the potential of mirroring alcohol as a segment and medical cannabis reach is massive and we have only begun to quantify it.

I believe now that the mid term growth in the sector will be flat for a while but with a strong consistent index leading trend upwards over longer periods of time.

 

[JonesBones]

 

[JonesBones]

IMO all the big Canadian cannabis plays are still a good long term bet.

Canadian companies have a huge advantage in being able to build out a market in a stable governmental environment that is keeping some of the most natural and biggest US players largely sidelined as they wait for a more cohesive and National US position on this market.

I think you will continue to see for a decade or more a State by State loosening and acceptance of Cannabis growing the over all market significantly with each new opening. But eventually and long term the entire market WILL open in the US, these cracks cannot be closed now. Full cannabis acceptance across the board for both leisure and medical. This will see big US players supported by big Private Equity playing catch up and looking to acquire a number of the larger Canadian companies to do so.

the initial surge of cannabis may have run a little ahead of itself as most 'hot', 'new' sectors do but the legs on this sector are imo massive. Recreational cannabis has all the potential of mirroring alcohol as a segment and medical cannabis reach is massive and we have only begun to quantify it.

I believe now that the mid term growth in the sector will be flat for a while but with a strong consistent index leading trend upwards over longer periods of time.

No. They can't increase their prices much because people will just continue to go to dealers. These companies are not doing well and there is no reason to buy from them. They can't compete on price. Same thing is happening in California.

The overwhelming majority of cannabis sales across Canada during the fourth quarter of last year were done on the black market, some 79%, according to the latest Statistics Canada data. That’s better than the 90% tally in the previous quarter, but legal pot still has a long way to go before it outsells its illicit counterpart.

Part of the reason is price. Statistics Canada has carried out an anonymous online survey on Canadian cannabis prices, and found the average cost is $10.91C ($8.13) per gram when buying an eighth of an ounce (3.5 grams), the most commonly purchased amount, through government-licensed retailers. That’s more than 40% higher than what the same amount fetches on the black market



https://qz.com/1605614/canadas-black-market-for-weed-is-thriving-even-after-legalization/

 

[MikeMcMann]

No. They can't increase their prices much because people will just continue to go to dealers. These companies are not doing well and there is no reason to buy from them. They can't compete on price. Same thing is happening in California.

The overwhelming majority of cannabis sales across Canada during the fourth quarter of last year were done on the black market, some 79%, according to the latest Statistics Canada data. That’s better than the 90% tally in the previous quarter, but legal pot still has a long way to go before it outsells its illicit counterpart.

Part of the reason is price. Statistics Canada has carried out an anonymous online survey on Canadian cannabis prices, and found the average cost is $10.91C ($8.13) per gram when buying an eighth of an ounce (3.5 grams), the most commonly purchased amount, through government-licensed retailers. That’s more than 40% higher than what the same amount fetches on the black market



https://qz.com/1605614/canadas-black-market-for-weed-is-thriving-even-after-legalization/

I don't agree as my argument is not based on price increase. Its based on market size increase which will be huge as more and more markets in the US and elsewhere continue to open up. Also US big Pharm, mostly on the sidelines will not allow others to dominate but they also cannot jump in without a Federal Framework. They will be playing catch up but they will catchup.

And I don't think the black market market share is sustainable as I believe the cost of the legal stuff will continue to plummet as mass production and quality win out, while the cost (factoring in risk) of the illicit stuff will continue to go up. People en masse don't care that they could buy moonshine for much cheaper than the stuff in the liquor store. They like the legality, convenience and branding. I see cannabis moving the same way but with even cheaper pricing eventually.

The growth of this market will be huge. It will become National and pervasive.

 

[JonesBones]

I don't agree as my argument is not based on price increase. Its based on market size increase which will be huge as more and more markets in the US and elsewhere continue to open up. Also US big Pharm, mostly on the sidelines will not allow others to dominate but they also cannot jump in without a Federal Framework. They will be playing catch up but they will catchup.

And I don't think the black market market share is sustainable as I believe the cost of the legal stuff will continue to plummet as mass production and quality win out, while the cost (factoring in risk) of the illicit stuff will continue to go up. People en masse don't care that they could buy moonshine for much cheaper than the stuff in the liquor store. They like the legality, convenience and branding. I see cannabis moving the same way but with even cheaper pricing eventually.

The growth of this market will be huge. It will become National and pervasive.

This was the premise the bubble that burst was based on.

How many people do you know who make moonshine? Everyone deals weed and is familiar with it. I don't believe the price will go down, I don't think the black market is going anywhere and I don't think these are good investments. If anything, American companies starting up will kill the Canadian ones. There was a thread on this and most people, including myself, are fine with the connections we have now. The legal companies are at a disadvantage with operating and licensing costs. Plus a fuckton of taxes. Weed companies aren't even allowed to deduct operating costs.

 

[brackis1]

I've been seeing Amazon push their Fire TV sticks HARD for Prime Day.
Think it's a sign they'll crush roku or struggling to hold marketshare?
Seems to offer a more integrated watching experience for prime users to have a Fire vs. a Roku

 

[MikeMcMann]

This was the premise the bubble that burst was based on.

How many people do you know who make moonshine? Everyone deals weed and is familiar with it. I don't believe the price will go down, I don't think the black market is going anywhere and I don't think these are good investments. If anything, American companies starting up will kill the Canadian ones. There was a thread on this and most people, including myself, are fine with the connections we have now. The legal companies are at a disadvantage with operating and licensing costs. Plus a fuckton of taxes. Weed companies aren't even allowed to deduct operating costs.

well I know for fact production costs are coming down as Mass production goes up and techniques and technology improves. We are very early in the curve and there is a ton of money focused on efficiency from equipment to plant genome. it would be foolish to assume every efficiency has been realized.

I am not sure there are more people actually growing weed then were brewing or making their own alcohol in their home. Particularly during prohibition. Forms of moonshine, grappa, Ouzo and wine have been done in homes for a long time. I would say more people are 'familiar with alcohol' than weed.

it would be silly to think that the big US Pharma would not look to acquire many of the Canadian Co's. Sure you can recreate the wheel with more money and hope to displace or crush, but the Canadian Co's will have a decade or more positioning, history and built up IP. As often happens you should expect big US Pharma back by big investment dollars to acquire these 'Big for Canada but small for US' market players to springboard off of. No not all US big Pharma will choose an acquisition strategy but it would be silly to think many won't take advantage of that strategy knowing that when they bring it in house, with their much bigger dollars they can multiples more out of the asset.

 

[JonesBones]

well I know for fact production costs are coming down as Mass production goes up and techniques and technology improves. We are very early in the curve and there is a ton of money focused on efficiency from equipment to plant genome. it would be foolish to assume every efficiency has been realized.

I am not sure there are more people actually growing weed then were brewing or making their own alcohol in their home. Particularly during prohibition. Forms of moonshine, grappa, Ouzo and wine have been done in homes for a long time. I would say more people are 'familiar with alcohol' than weed.

it would be silly to think that the big US Pharma would not look to acquire many of the Canadian Co's. Sure you can recreate the wheel with more money and hope to displace or crush, but the Canadian Co's will have a decade or more positioning, history and built up IP. As often happens you should expect big US Pharma back by big investment dollars to acquire these 'Big for Canada but small for US' market players to springboard off of. No not all US big Pharma will choose an acquisition strategy but it would be silly to think many won't take advantage of that strategy knowing that when they bring it in house, with their much bigger dollars they can multiples more out of the asset.

It is vice companies like alcohol and tobacco who are interested too and already invested. Like Constellation, who owns Corona, Modelo, Svekda and a bunch of others. They are not happy with their investment so far and recently fired the CEO of Canopy Growth. So at least they they recognize something is wrong and are trying to change things.

CBD oil was recently legalized in NY and my dad is spending a fortune on this shit. I don't know if this fad will last. There are tons of small shops with their own blends Reminds me of vaping.

 

[JonesBones]

These are the kind of companies that are gonna be good. People send them their seeds and strains and they tell them what they are. This will lead to them having a huge genetic database of all strains. Like Monsato. They will test your genotype and then store it in their database. They will have all the information. None of the big Canadian companies are doing this on this scale.

https://phylos.bio/

Access the world's largest database of hemp and cannabis genetic insights featuring thousands of heritage and modern varieties from over 80 countries.

The data points we capture from your sample’s strands of DNA (in the Genotype Test) provide little information when evaluated by themselves. However, in the context of an entire database of other sequencing data points, we can provide you with highly useful relational information, such as how rare the variety is, heterozygosity, and what other varieties it is related to. In order to provide you with this context, we need your permission to use and work with the data.

Therefore, by using Phylos’s products and services, each customer grants Phylos the right to use, improve, copy, distribute, analyze, and transform the Genetic Data generated from each test.

This grant is a nonexclusive, transferable, royalty-free, fully-paid, and perpetual license, and allows us to grant sublicenses. This means, in part, that we can engage and allow third-party strategic partners or service providers to access and similarly use the data (under Non-Disclosure Agreements) to assist us in our work.

 

[MikeMcMann]

It is vice companies like alcohol and tobacco who are interested too and already invested. Like Constellation, who owns Corona, Modelo, Svekda and a bunch of others. They are not happy with their investment so far and recently fired the CEO of Canopy Growth. So at least they they recognize something is wrong and are trying to change things.

CBD oil was recently legalized in NY and my dad is spending a fortune on this shit. I don't know if this fad will last. There are tons of small shops with their own blends Reminds me of vaping.

if marijuana is a fad, its one of the longest, most enduring fads of all time. lol.

...Marijuana, also known as cannabis or pot, has a long history of human use. Most ancient cultures didn’t grow the plant to get high, but as herbal medicine, likely starting in Asia around 500 BC
cite

I am pretty sure the fad will endure a little longer.

But yes but many more Big Alcohol Co's are also another likely consolidator of many of the established 'recreation cannabis Co's' once they are comfortable enough with the legislative landscape in the US.

 

[JonesBones]

if marijuana is a fad, its one of the longest, most enduring fads of all time. lol.

...Marijuana, also known as cannabis or pot, has a long history of human use. Most ancient cultures didn’t grow the plant to get high, but as herbal medicine, likely starting in Asia around 500 BC
cite

I am pretty sure the fad will endure a little longer.

But yes but many more Big Alcohol Co's are also another likely consolidator of many of the established 'recreation cannabis Co's' once they are comfortable enough with the legislative landscape in the US.

I meant CBD oil is a fad and borderline snake oil.

ANd look at my previous post on the company who is becoming the Monsato of weed with their massive database they can use.

 

[brackis1]

Wooot Symantec back on possibly; glad I didn't sell and nibbled at the bottom.
If they balked at $28 but it's still possible, there's plenty of meat on the bone to flip from 22.5 up to 24-25 range

 

[JonesBones]

CNBC talking about how Wynn knocked it out of the park with their new casino in Mass.

 

[Rational Poster]

I meant CBD oil is a fad and borderline snake oil.

ANd look at my previous post on the company who is becoming the Monsato of weed with their massive database they can use.

It's like weed but you don't get high..

Then what is the fucking point???

 

[JonesBones]

Morgan Brennan changed her hair again.

 

[JonesBones]

It's like weed but you don't get high..

Then what is the fucking point???

It supposedly helps with all sorts of ailments like all these other supplements do. I have used it. It made me relaxed for like 5 minutes. lol. It was so short. It is expensive too.

 

[MikeMcMann]

I meant CBD oil is a fad and borderline snake oil.

ANd look at my previous post on the company who is becoming the Monsato of weed with their massive database they can use.

Calling it snake oil (even borderline) is silly. I would agree the hype is way out front of it as a magic cure all and the studies will be done now to determine where and where it does not have strong benefits.

But there is certainly strong science, verified science at least in the area of treatment of seizures and epilepsy. That alone makes it not snake oil let alone the early info (to be verified) that it has benefits to anxiety, pain and other.

...We need more research but CBD may be prove to be an option for managing anxiety, insomnia, and chronic pain. Cite

...Some preliminary research suggests that CBD may help with arthritis pain...CBD relieved arthritis pain and inflammation. On the other hand, results of human studies are mixed. For example, a 2016 analysis of human trials for RA, OA and fibromyalgia found that CBD improved pain and sleep, cite


But yes the hype is high.

 

[brackis1]

Look at all of us talking like grownups; ain't this great?

 

[milliniar]

This was the premise the bubble that burst was based on.

How many people do you know who make moonshine? Everyone deals weed and is familiar with it. I don't believe the price will go down, I don't think the black market is going anywhere and I don't think these are good investments. If anything, American companies starting up will kill the Canadian ones. There was a thread on this and most people, including myself, are fine with the connections we have now. The legal companies are at a disadvantage with operating and licensing costs. Plus a fuckton of taxes. Weed companies aren't even allowed to deduct operating costs.

And I would say Canopy currently has biggest brand in Canada as Tweed.
The government has two ways to go if there approved companies can't survive.
Reduce restrictions on growing. Or lower taxes to lower prices.
It will be the long game on these companies.

 

[JonesBones]

Calling it snake oil (even borderline) is silly. I would agree the hype is way out front of it as a magic cure all and the studies will be done now to determine where and where it does not have strong benefits.

But there is certainly strong science, verified science at least in the area of treatment of seizures and epilepsy. That alone makes it not snake oil let alone the early info (to be verified) that it has benefits to anxiety, pain and other.

...We need more research but CBD may be prove to be an option for managing anxiety, insomnia, and chronic pain. Cite

...Some preliminary research suggests that CBD may help with arthritis pain...CBD relieved arthritis pain and inflammation. On the other hand, results of human studies are mixed. For example, a 2016 analysis of human trials for RA, OA and fibromyalgia found that CBD improved pain and sleep, cite


But yes the hype is high.

Strong science in epilepsy? No. This is exactly what I am talking about.

There has been little high-quality research into the use of cannabidiol for epilepsy. The limited available evidence primarily focuses on refractory epilepsy in children.[13] While the results of using medical-grade cannabidiol in combination with conventional medication shows some promise, they did not lead to seizures being eliminated, and were associated with some minor adverse effects.[13]

Preliminary research on other possible therapeutic uses for cannabidiol include several neurological disorders, but the findings have not been confirmed by sufficient high-quality clinical research to establish such uses in clinical practice.[6][9][14][15][16]

There is no high quality research on any of this and you are stating it as fact. That is what snake oil is. It comes with the FDA disclaimer too like all other supplements. None of these claims have been proven.