Should Zhang be the favorite? What if they fought at their peaks?

[Reptile_Bong_Hit]

Val should be a -200 or more fav and this line is severely mispriced.

But I don't want to keep money on the sportsbook for months, so I hope people keep thinking like you and the line stays low.

Hey, don't make me second-guess myself!

How do you think Val gets it done? UD? Takes Weili down multiple times? Lands more on the feet?

 

[xhaydenx]

This. In no compacity is Zhang a better fighter than Val. Not a single one. Zhang bullies people around and she is going to have a hard time doing that against someone that is her size or larger that is an equal threat to her in the stand up and on the ground (unlike Suarez). I like her as a fighter, but if she fights like she did in her last fights (all going to decision) it might be a long night of her walking into Val's kicks and punches. I am also curious, is their any training footage of her out there? Three fights in three years might be good (heal your brain and body) but without training much and stepping up in competition, it might not play out to well for her.

I know I am going to get some shit for this but oh well. I said my peace.

Yeh, I didn't explain it, but that's basically my read as well. Val is just going to be too big and strong for Zhang to do what she wants to do.

Val looked noticeably slower vs Manon. She still squeaked out the win because stylistically Manon is more a bruiser/plodder with some solid boxing. Weili will have a speed advantage standing. Val is still the better technical striker, but Weili closed that gap a lot too. And she's just less shopworn. Prime for prime I'll take Val for sure but imo this isn't that. Weili is directly in her prime, Val is past hers.

Val is definitely a lot slower these days. She's declined massively over the last few years.

That said, Zhang does get tired faster than she used to. She does seem to get a second wind, but it might be harder with Val. I feel like Val is gonna grapple her a lot.

 

[xhaydenx]

Striking? Val

Wrestling? Could argue either, so if you say Val, I won't argue with you.

Ground? Weili has shown more in her fights against Suarez and Lemos than Val has on the ground. Val has the crucifix and good control, but Weili has shown a bigger bag so to speak.

Clinch? Val's certainly more credentialled, but I've seen more from Weili in the UFC (apart from a few nice trips).

Speed? Both fresh, I still think Val's throws faster single strikes (punches, kicks). However, I think Weili's almost certainly has better reaction time right now. I also think Weili would be faster in a scramble.

Overall, Val is the more skilled fighter, IMO. However, I'm not convinced she's better across the board, though. And even if there is a skill gap on the ground (favouring Weili), to the extent Val's stronger, it could be indiscernible/neutralized anyway.

I wouldn't give Zhang the grappling advantage at all. She's great, but those wins against Tatiana and Carla weren't that impressive. Carla was on her way out and struggles against anyone who is stronger than her, and Tatiana was a low cardio bum the moment she fought anyone she couldn't finish quickly or dominate within 2 rounds. She also had no footwork to set anything up.

And Zhang is still the same fighter who got pretty soundly outgrappled by Rose at SW. Rose sure as shit ain't outgrappling any version of Val here at FLW. There's nothing to suggest that Zhang would either.

 

[mkess101]

Yeh, I didn't explain it, but that's basically my read as well. Val is just going to be too big and strong for Zhang to do what she wants to do.



Val is definitely a lot slower these days. She's declined massively over the last few years.

That said, Zhang does get tired faster than she used to. She does seem to get a second wind, but it might be harder with Val. I feel like Val is gonna grapple her a lot.

I may have thought that before seeing how easily Weili shut down Suarez. Not just that Weili won, she absolutely clowned Tatiana. The vaunted grappling game of "the female Khabib" got absolutely nowhere. Weili isn't just a good grappler now, she's elite.

Val has an edge on Suarez with a bit of added size plus she's obviously a great striker too. But unlike say a GSP in his prime who seamlessly blended striking and wrestling, I don't see that with Val. She's elite at both, but imo she doesn't flow between them to where an opponent would have to guess all the time.

I know Manon's size played a big role, but Shev was 2 for 9 on TD attempts and even when she got them she couldn't keep any control. Weili has become insanely physically hard to deal with. She straight bullied Suarez, who was supposed to be the bully of the division. Just from an eyeball test too, Val doesn't look much bigger than Tatiana.

 

[xhaydenx]

I may have thought that before seeing how easily Weili shut down Suarez. Not just that Weili won, she absolutely clowned Tatiana. The vaunted grappling game of "the female Khabib" got absolutely nowhere. Weili isn't just a good grappler now, she's elite.

Val has an edge on Suarez with a bit of added size plus she's obviously a great striker too. But unlike say a GSP in his prime who seamlessly blended striking and wrestling, I don't see that with Val. She's elite at both, but imo she doesn't flow between them to where an opponent would have to guess all the time.

I know Manon's size played a big role, but Shev was 2 for 9 on TD attempts and even when she got them she couldn't keep any control. Weili has become insanely physically hard to deal with. She straight bullied Suarez, who was supposed to be the bully of the division. Just from an eyeball test too, Val doesn't look much bigger than Tatiana.

I wouldn't say Tatiana's grappling got her nowhere against Zhang. She got the td and she held her down. I didn't really expect much more from her than that. People seemed to think she was going to hold Zhang down for 5 rounds without issue. My prediction was always that she either finished it in under 1.5 or 2 or she was going to lose because she wouldn't have the cardio.

I didn't think too much of Zhang stopping the grappling beyond that time because Suarez was too gassed to do anything.

I think Val can definitely flow between grappling and striking. Look at her fights against Grasso, Maia, and Joanna for good examples of that. She obviously favors whatever she thinks her opponent is weaker at though. Her fight against Joanna in particular was a masterclass.

I don't think Zhang is weak or anything, but she's looking stronger than she is because she's making the most of girls who are either shit once gassed like Tatiana, or aren't good wrestlers anyway and are gassed like Lemos and Yan. Compare that to her fights against Rose and Joanna. Both girls had cardio and could wrestle, and Zhang couldn't get the wrestling going in either fight and lost because of Rose's wrestling.

I think Val is going to avoid the fight a lot and try and make Zhang miss for as long as she can and then look to clinch and grapple to tire her out more. The problem is she's not as good at this as she used to be. After 2 rounds now Val becomes really flat footed and often just stands still waiting to go for the counter because she's too tired to keep up her footwork. Like, Manon was spamming basic 1-2s into the clinch non stop because of this. If she was fighting the Val that had fought Maia or Carmouche or Holly, she wouldn't touched her all fight lol.

Gonna be an interesting fight for sure though.

 

[mkess101]

I wouldn't say Tatiana's grappling got her nowhere against Zhang. She got the td and she held her down. I didn't really expect much more from her than that. People seemed to think she was going to hold Zhang down for 5 rounds without issue. My prediction was always that she either finished it in under 1.5 or 2 or she was going to lose because she wouldn't have the cardio.

I didn't think too much of Zhang stopping the grappling beyond that time because Suarez was too gassed to do anything.

I think Val can definitely flow between grappling and striking. Look at her fights against Grasso, Maia, and Joanna for good examples of that. She obviously favors whatever she thinks her opponent is weaker at though. Her fight against Joanna in particular was a masterclass.

I don't think Zhang is weak or anything, but she's looking stronger than she is because she's making the most of girls who are either shit once gassed like Tatiana, or aren't good wrestlers anyway and are gassed like Lemos and Yan. Compare that to her fights against Rose and Joanna. Both girls had cardio and could wrestle, and Zhang couldn't get the wrestling going in either fight and lost because of Rose's wrestling.

I think Val is going to avoid the fight a lot and try and make Zhang miss for as long as she can and then look to clinch and grapple to tire her out more. The problem is she's not as good at this as she used to be. After 2 rounds now Val becomes really flat footed and often just stands still waiting to go for the counter because she's too tired to keep up her footwork. Like, Manon was spamming basic 1-2s into the clinch non stop because of this. If she was fighting the Val that had fought Maia or Carmouche or Holly, she wouldn't touched her all fight lol.

Gonna be an interesting fight for sure though.

Yeah fair points, but I do actually see Weili with the cardio edge. Plus this is one fight where I think mindset might play a big role. Val seems to be in that mode where she's been at the top a long time and status quo is good enough. Got subbed by Alexa and that was "a fluke". Okay...sure maybe. Then the draw and she feels she was robbed. And maybe she should have gotten the nod, but she hardly put a stamp on that one. Third fight she zeroed in on Grasso's massive weakness and just held her down the whole fight.
Weili is obsessed with getting better. Even as champ, she allegedly can't stop working to better herself. Her grappling z her cardio, everything. That's what I'd rather bet on.

 

[SuperNerd]

primes, i go 60/40 Val

 

[Soggust]

Hey, don't make me second-guess myself!

How do you think Val gets it done? UD? Takes Weili down multiple times? Lands more on the feet?

Well, if it makes you feel better, I'm also a fucking idiot and my accountant would probably advise not listening to me.

I just think she's better everywhere + bigger. There is a narrative about val being more washed but idk. It's still 36 vs 37 and I think this is a fight that Valentina will be motivated for.

 

[fortheo]

Right now, I'd pick weili if she had a good chin, but she really doesn't, so I'm split 50-50

In their prime, I'd favor val 60-40

 

[El Fernas]

36 vs almost 38 on fight night, if someone is closer to their prime is Zhang, i think she might get this one, not by being better, more like being less old.

 

[Sycho Sid]

People keep mentioning their age, which is fair, but seem to forget Valentina had an entire career before MMA. Something like 60 kickboxing fights. She has a lot more wear and thear than Weili.

 

[DanDragon Machi]

Val is on clear decline right now.. she should've eat alive Grasso, not have heavy battles with her. She barely got past Fiorot also.
She is making more and more mistakes and you can't be at top forever.
Meanwhile Weili is strong and in her peak.
Right now Zhang is favorite for me. But prime for prime Val would beat her.

She didn't eat Jenniffer Maia alive when was 32 years old why should she beat Grasso easily? The 57 kg female division level increased exponentially compared to years ago, fans just mix this fact with the illusory perception of decay. Val is technically better than never currently, women used to have a more durable prime and smarter fighters benefit from this

 

[Streeter]

Val is beginning to be washed that's why Zhang is favorite .

I still like Val here though. Her ground game and kicks are better . Weili has tve better hands and power and likely overall strength (close) but Val has the technique .

Val will stsnd with her at first then once she tastes her power she lay an prays rest of fight to a win like Rose did the 2nd fight.

 

[mkess101]

People keep mentioning their age, which is fair, but seem to forget Valentina had an entire career before MMA. Something like 60 kickboxing fights. She has a lot more wear and thear than Weili.

Yep I mentioned that and it's true. And even if we put that aside (which I agree we shouldn't), Val has been in MMA a decade longer than Weili. Same number of MMA fights, sure. But ten years of being in the gym. Sparring, rolling, putting your body under duress. That's a big deal.

 

[WOLVERINEKILLS]

Very simple. Val more technical, Weili better athlete. Weili needs to be explosive and hurt Val early. If not it may be a long night. Val assisted training Thug Rose for her fight that gave Weili problems. Val also demolished an explosive fighter with similar build as Weili in Andrade. Weili can win but it seems like unless Val has turned really old she should win a decision.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Val is more durable and more technical

I’d assume prime val is better then prime zhang

Val arguably best Amanda Nunes up a weight class…

Fantastic fight though … if Val wins she should retire and avoid Natalia silvas high risk low reward matchup

 

[payton]

Whether Zhang is in her prime or not, Val should always be the favorite over her.

What do you think about prime Val vs current Ditcheva?

 

[Aurelian]

Whether Zhang is in her prime or not, Val should always be the favorite over her.

Well, she's not. Go make your bets before it's too late.

 

[xhaydenx]

What do you think about prime Val vs current Ditcheva?

Prime Val too elusive and uses her grappling to win pretty easily.

I do love Dakota, but it's hard to see where she's really at. She didn't blow away Sumiko, who would go nowhere in the UFC FLW division.

 

[Dragonseeker]

Very simple. Val more technical, Weili better athlete. Weili needs to be explosive and hurt Val early. If not it may be a long night. Val assisted training Thug Rose for her fight that gave Weili problems. Val also demolished an explosive fighter with similar build as Weili in Andrade. Weili can win but it seems like unless Val has turned really old she should win a decision.

I think Val is the better fighter and more skilled, especially in her prime, but Andrade isn't a good barometer. Weili herself destroyed Andrade.