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- May 27, 2023
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If this fight plays out on the feet, I still see Val being slightly quicker, throwing single strikes from the outside. Weili might throw heavier punches, but Val's a better kicker and puncher. Weili will blitz but ultimately look to grapple. Val may counter blitzes with check hook or jabs, but she's been pretty tentative on the feet in her last few fights.
Both fighters are vulnerable defensively; more specifically, Val's punch resistance, whereas I think Weili's the more hittable of the two.
I think Weili is better on the floor--if she can get it there. I think her legs and trunk could be stronger than Val's, but I suspect Val probably has more upper body strength.
Prime for prime (Val peaked earlier than Weili, but this is hypothetical):
If they were doing a grappling match, I'd favour Weili. If it were a kickboxing match, I strongly favour Val. In MMA, I'd favour Val because I'd guess that if things got too hairy on the feet, she'd take Weili down. I know Rose did, but Suarez couldn't, mostly because Weili got better, but part of that was because Rose was a dual threat (striking and grappling). Val is also a dual threat, but she's not going to be shooting doubles. She'll try to take Weili down from the clinch. Prime for prime, I think she takes Welie down about 33% of the time but does little to no damage, and edges her on the feet.
Prediction for this fight:
Although I favour Val prime for prime, I believe Weili is the fresher of the two right now. I think both fighters can probably take each other down, but not easily. I think Weili will have more success on the ground than Val would--but I don't think anyone's getting stopped (unless by club and sub or something).
On the feet, Val's still sharp offensively, but barely throws. Weili throws more, but is hittable. I think we're going to see Weili initiate clinch and this one could play out against the fence for stretches. Val may get one or two takedowns--If she get's two, she'll almost certainly win. If Weili is aggressive enough on the feet, she could get easier takedowns, but will essentially be gambling on Val's inactivity with counters.
All in all, at this point in there careers, the odds aren't as surprising to me as they were at first blush. Pick em' makes sense. But a few years ago, this would be a -350 Shevchenko line for me. Just because she'd have slightly more activity on the feet, probably better strike resistance, and probably better endurance to initiate grappling offense. Plus, Weili did not appear to be as good of grappler a few years. With Val having more offense overall, Weili would have less opportunity to win rounds as she'd be playing catch-up (kind of like the Rose rematch, even though she arguably won).
Both fighters are vulnerable defensively; more specifically, Val's punch resistance, whereas I think Weili's the more hittable of the two.
I think Weili is better on the floor--if she can get it there. I think her legs and trunk could be stronger than Val's, but I suspect Val probably has more upper body strength.
Prime for prime (Val peaked earlier than Weili, but this is hypothetical):
If they were doing a grappling match, I'd favour Weili. If it were a kickboxing match, I strongly favour Val. In MMA, I'd favour Val because I'd guess that if things got too hairy on the feet, she'd take Weili down. I know Rose did, but Suarez couldn't, mostly because Weili got better, but part of that was because Rose was a dual threat (striking and grappling). Val is also a dual threat, but she's not going to be shooting doubles. She'll try to take Weili down from the clinch. Prime for prime, I think she takes Welie down about 33% of the time but does little to no damage, and edges her on the feet.
Prediction for this fight:
Although I favour Val prime for prime, I believe Weili is the fresher of the two right now. I think both fighters can probably take each other down, but not easily. I think Weili will have more success on the ground than Val would--but I don't think anyone's getting stopped (unless by club and sub or something).
On the feet, Val's still sharp offensively, but barely throws. Weili throws more, but is hittable. I think we're going to see Weili initiate clinch and this one could play out against the fence for stretches. Val may get one or two takedowns--If she get's two, she'll almost certainly win. If Weili is aggressive enough on the feet, she could get easier takedowns, but will essentially be gambling on Val's inactivity with counters.
All in all, at this point in there careers, the odds aren't as surprising to me as they were at first blush. Pick em' makes sense. But a few years ago, this would be a -350 Shevchenko line for me. Just because she'd have slightly more activity on the feet, probably better strike resistance, and probably better endurance to initiate grappling offense. Plus, Weili did not appear to be as good of grappler a few years. With Val having more offense overall, Weili would have less opportunity to win rounds as she'd be playing catch-up (kind of like the Rose rematch, even though she arguably won).
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