Hold on a second here.....you're bringing up LHWs and fights at LHW. There is a difference here when you have guys like Rampage, Machida, Shogun, DC, Rashad, Vitor who are far smaller than Jones when it comes to height and reach and pack less power. Half those guys went down to MW. Jon in those fights manages the distance so well that it's very hard to hit him clean.
Pavovich who matches Jon in height and reach and comes in at 255lbs and is solid HW with big power and great boxing is gonna have a far easier time hitting the mark. Gustaffson who was the tallest and longest fighter Jon fought landed clean on Jones many times and so did Reyes, and those guys aren't power punchers. You don't think a guy who packs a much heavier punch has a better chance to KO Jon at HW? And you gotta consider Jon in 2022, is not Jon of 2011 to 2015, time has passed, he's been inactive and chances are he's not gonna come back in the same shape.