Sergei Pavlovich would KO Jon Jones in Round 1.

[Captain Herb]

I’ve honestly never looked at Jon jones as a fast fighter. I don’t believe his speed will be that noticeable compared to some of the heavy weights.

Why do people think Jones is fast? He's not

 

[kingghidrah]

Hold on a second here.....you're bringing up LHWs and fights at LHW. There is a difference here when you have guys like Rampage, Machida, Shogun, DC, Rashad, Vitor who are far smaller than Jones when it comes to height and reach and pack less power. Half those guys went down to MW. Jon in those fights manages the distance so well that it's very hard to hit him clean.

Pavovich who matches Jon in height and reach and comes in at 255lbs and is solid HW with big power and great boxing is gonna have a far easier time hitting the mark. Gustaffson who was the tallest and longest fighter Jon fought landed clean on Jones many times and so did Reyes, and those guys aren't power punchers. You don't think a guy who packs a much heavier punch has a better chance to KO Jon at HW? And you gotta consider Jon in 2022, is not Jon of 2011 to 2015, time has passed, he's been inactive and chances are he's not gonna come back in the same shape.

His comment was completely rational. He didn't say Pavlovich isn't bigger, or doesn't hit harder, than those other guys. Nor did he say Jones is 100% as good as he's ever been. He didn't say "Pavlovich has NO chance of knocking him out!" He just said, given that Jones has never even been remotely hurt by a punch, it's ridiculous to say he would definitely be KOed in the first round by Pavlovich. Let's not move the goalposts: TS said there's no doubt that Pav would KO Jones in the first round, that is what we are arguing, not whether Pav "has a better chance" or not.

 

[Pilo]

You raise some good points and might in fact be right. There's of course a possibility of a HW like Pavlovich landing a KO shot on Jon.

At least you're willing to admit that. That's a good start.

I was just pointing out that it's ridiculous to confidently assert that Sergei Pavlovich would for sure KO Jon Jones in the first round as TS did.

I agree with that. Jones could definitely win that fight for sure.

Pavlovich has been in there with just two high level fighters in his career- One was Alistair Overeem who destroyed Sergei and finished in the first round. The other was Derrick Lewis and it was a weird fight that ended in under 1 min in a controversial stoppage.

That's just not true, or at least, this has to be put in context: The Overeem fight was his first UFC fight. Talk about a steep welcome to the organization. The reason they gave him that guy is because he was a highly regarded hot prospect in Russian MMA, and a solid standup striker. As a matter of fact, Reem himself didn't look too comfortable even blocking his shots, as they were so powerful, almost getting through his guard. So Overeem took him down. Pavlovich looked TERRIBLE on his back, though.

The Lewis fight wasn't an early stoppage at all. Best thing to ever happen to Lewis' brain cells is this fight being stopped.

He has very very limited experience, he's a pretty unknown commodity at this point. Whereas Jon has obviously been in there with everyone and beat them all.

LOL, no...just no. Dominick Reyes had 12 pro fights to his resume, and mostly won against nobodies and mid-tier fighters until he fought Jones. Tell me, how did he look? Did he push Jones and was competitive enough so that a lot of people think he actually won? Yes he did! A 205er with 12 pro fights and not a whole lot of experience, right?

But going back to Sergei, I wouldn't call a guy with 17 pro fights, including 5 in the UFC, someone with "very very limited experience". That's just not true. Actually, what about the fact that Pavlovich has 17 pro MMA fights at HW, while Jon Jones has ZERO? He beat a ton of fantastic opponents at 205, many of which ended up at middleweight later on, but he has never tasted HW power, he has never tried to wrestle HWs inside the cage, and he basically has no experience in that weight class. I do agree that Sergei's apparent weakness in defending takedowns would lead me to pick Jones if these two were to fight, but this isn't the no-brainer pick that you, alongside many others, are implying it to be.

And I think there's another way to look at this as well: Jon Jones has plenty of wear and tear from all these wars he's been in, and Pavlovich usually finishes within a round. He's probably healthier and in better shape than Jones at this point in their respective careers.

He would have a huge speed advantage vs Sergei and a much more diverse striking attack.

You think so? I don't. Yes, Jones is very versatile on the feet, has all sorts of unorthodox strikes in his arsenal, but they haven't seemed to pack the same power over the years, they don't seem this fast anymore. On the other hand, Pavlovich has deceivingly long range, lands from very odd angles, and packs a fuck ton of power. And when he explodes, he's going for the kill.

It's very possible that Jon would stay out of Sergei's range and cruise to a decision win or get the finish after Sergei gasses in the later rounds (we've never seen him out of the first round in the UFC).

It's also very possible that Sergei would be patient as he usually is, would pick his spot to explode, and take Jones' head off clean. And another possibility is that Jones, as a man who's not used to carry as much weight and muscle mass into a fight, would gas out early. Look at GSP when he fought Bisping. He looked spent after a round. Did GSP ever look spent going into the second round in any other of his fights?

The biggest variable is one you pointed out- Which is that Jon has been out for awhile and we have no idea how he'll look now that he's older and had a long layoff. But it still doesn't seem very smart to bet on an inexperienced fighter like Pavlovich over him.

The biggest variable is the fact that Jones has never fought at HW, and would be fighting one of the bigger ones there, with as much reach as him (which again is not something he's familiar with), which means that his main tool (his reach) would be nullified. Again, the wrestling aspect leads me to pick Jones in this hypothetical matchup, but to completely rule out Sergei's chances or imply that they're basically just the typical puncher's chance is just fallacy, imho.

 

[DS66]

At least you're willing to admit that. That's a good start.


I agree with that. Jones could definitely win that fight for sure.


That's just not true, or at least, this has to be put in context: The Overeem fight was his first UFC fight. Talk about a steep welcome to the organization. The reason they gave him that guy is because he was a highly regarded hot prospect in Russian MMA, and a solid standup striker. As a matter of fact, Reem himself didn't look too comfortable even blocking his shots, as they were so powerful, almost getting through his guard. So Overeem took him down. Pavlovich looked TERRIBLE on his back, though.


I wouldn't call a guy with 17 pro fights, including 5 in the UFC, someone with "very very limited experience". That's just not true. Actually, what about the fact that Pavlovich has 17 pro MMA fights at HW, while Jon Jones has ZERO? He beat a ton of fantastic opponents at 205, many of which ended up at middleweight later on, but he has never tasted HW power, he has never tried to wrestle HWs inside the cage, and he basically has no experience in that weight class. I do agree that Sergei's apparent weakness in defending takedowns would lead me to pick Jones if these two were to win, but this isn't the no-brainer pick that you're implying it to be.


You think so? I don't. Yes, Jones is very versatile on the feet, has all sorts of unorthodox strikes in his arsenal, but they haven't seem to pack the same power over the years, they don't seem this fast. On the other hand, Pavlovich has deceivingly long range, lands from very odd angles, and packs a fuck ton of power. And when he explodes, he's going for the kill.

It's also very possible that Sergei would be patient as he usually is, would pick his spot to explode, and take Jones' head off clean. And another possibility is that Jones, as a man who's not used to carry as much weight and muscle mass into a fight, would gas out early. Look at GSP when he fought Bisping. He looked spent after a round. Did GSP ever look spent going into the second round in any other of his fights?


The biggest variable is the fact that Jones has never fought at HW, and would be fighting one of the bigger ones there, with as much reach as him (which again is not something he's familiar with), which means that his main tool (his reach) would be nullified. Again, the wrestling aspect leads me to pick Jones in this hypothetical matchup, but to completely rule out Sergei's chances or imply that they're basically just the typical puncher's chance is just fallacy, imho.

I don't disagree with anything you said. On the limited experience, I should have clarified "limited experience against high level fighters on a big stage".

I never "completely ruled out Sergei's chances". I absolutely think he has a chance. The only thing I was saying is that it's crazy to expect Pavlovich would run over Jones with a round 1 finish if they were to fight, as per the original post. And you seem to agree with that. So I'm not quite sure why you're trying to argue with me here.

 

[ServantofGOD]

Hold on a second here.....you're bringing up LHWs and fights at LHW. There is a difference here when you have guys like Rampage, Machida, Shogun, DC, Rashad, Vitor who are far smaller than Jones when it comes to height and reach and pack less power. Half those guys went down to MW. Jon in those fights manages the distance so well that it's very hard to hit him clean.

Pavovich who matches Jon in height and reach and comes in at 255lbs and is solid HW with big power and great boxing is gonna have a far easier time hitting the mark. Gustaffson who was the tallest and longest fighter Jon fought landed clean on Jones many times and so did Reyes, and those guys aren't power punchers. You don't think a guy who packs a much heavier punch has a better chance to KO Jon at HW? And you gotta consider Jon in 2022, is not Jon of 2011 to 2015, time has passed, he's been inactive and chances are he's not gonna come back in the same shape.

Yeah Pavlovich is likely underrated and his wikipedia says he grew up wrestling. The Overeem fight he got rocked from a right hand Overeem threw. Overeem only managed to set up the right hand after a low kick Overeem threw then he snuck up the middle with a straight left Pavlovich doged but the right managed to hit and rock Pavlovich. Overeem essentially allowed Pav to hit him but initiated the clinch with Pavlovich rocked and Pav moving backwards Overeem trips Pavlovichs left leg with a knee then a leg trip and head control. Pavlovich falls back then is rocked and tko on the ground.

In all previous times in the fight Pavolvich was beating Overeem to the punch and was landing on Overeems head. Overeem only started to land strikes once he clinched with knees but Pavlovich was strong enough as a beginner to turn Overeem around several times and put Overeems back to the cage. Sergei also failed a takedown vs Overeem. At 3 minutes and 58 seconds in the fight Pavlovich out work, hits him and has Overeem retreat to the cage with his guard up on his back foot but Pavlovich was too inexperienced to take it for the huge opportunity it was which was a ripe opportunity to assault Overeem who was just coming off reversing (seriously Overeem could of been blitzkreig KOd there like how Rogers did Arlovski or Ngannou did many people). Go back and watch this part in slow motion, Overeem is visibly upset, in reverse on his back leg with arms in defensive non cocked and loaded positions and his elbows touching the cage if he had been hit any return shots he would of thrown would of been short and without much power where as Pavlovich would of been throwing bombs and in a proper stance with range to move his legs, arms and gain torque for throwing strikes. Rewatching that fight and seeing how a seasoned Overeem who is arguably the best HW mma striker ever ceedes the center of the cage and is backed up and beaten to the punch by a novice in Pavlovich and also reversed in the clinch says a lot about Pavlovichs potential. Similarly Ngannou did something similar with Overeem with commanding the center, beating Overeem to the punch, and having Overeem on the back foot. Also the way Overeem was KOd vs Ngannou presented itself in the Pavlovich fight. Overeem threw the same looping outside right (that he threw at Ngannou) missed but with Pav tried to clinch not throw a left which he did vs Ngannou and landed but Ngannou had reloaded his left and reloaded and clocked Overeem.

Anyhow you have a point also with half of Jones opponents being small LHWs many whom went to MW. Also many of them are shorter than their listed heights. Jones fought few legit 6"1 or 6"2 fighters

 

[JKS]

His comment was completely rational. He didn't say Pavlovich isn't bigger, or doesn't hit harder, than those other guys. Nor did he say Jones is 100% as good as he's ever been. He didn't say "Pavlovich has NO chance of knocking him out!" He just said, given that Jones has never even been remotely hurt by a punch, it's ridiculous to say he would definitely be KOed in the first round by Pavlovich. Let's not move the goalposts: TS said there's no doubt that Pav would KO Jones in the first round, that is what we are arguing, not whether Pav "has a better chance" or not.

Come on, let's be honest here, the comment had sarcasm and basically stated that if those guys couldn't KO Jones that Pavlovich wouldn't. Otherwise those names wouldn't be brought up.

 

[Pilo]

I don't disagree with anything you said. On the limited experience, I should have clarified "limited experience against high level fighters on a big stage".

I never "completely ruled out Sergei's chances". I absolutely think he has a chance. The only thing I was saying is that it's crazy to expect Pavlovich would run over Jones with a round 1 finish if they were to fight, as per the original post. And you seem to agree with that. So I'm not quite sure why you're trying to argue with me here.

Well what you just brought up is one of these reasons I'm arguing (and it's a friendly conversation my man, nobody getting mad here).

"Experience against high level fighters on a big stage" sure matters, but I think it brings its own set of variables: Jon Jones has looked worn out and like a shell of his former self in his last 3 fights, even against Reyes, a guy who had 12 pro fights to his MMA resume when he fought Jones.

Not only did he give Jones a shit ton of trouble, a lot of people actually thought he won (I don't). Look how Reyes looked against other elite LHWs after that. Not saying he never was that good, but he got a title shot off a win over a washed-up Chris Weidman who dipped his toes into LHW waters for the first time, and instantly regretted it. I think Jones' journey at HW could very much look like Weidman's at LHW.

So experience is great, for sure, but at this point in their respective careers, skillwise, Jones looks to be going downhill, and Sergei seems to be improving. So all these 5 round wars could have taken a toll on him, alongside age.

Would Sergei run over Jones with a round 1 finish? Tough to say, but given Sergei's propensity to finish fights in the first, if he were to win that fight, I think that's how he'd do it.

 

[CainWasAble]

He would have a huge speed advantage vs Sergei and a much more diverse striking attack.

I agree with most of what your saying, but i saw a couple vids where heavyweight jones looked really fucking slow on the pads. Pavlovich has pretty fucking fast hands for a HW.

 

[JKS]

You raise some good points and might in fact be right. There's of course a possibility of a HW like Pavlovich landing a KO shot on Jon.

I was just pointing out that it's ridiculous to confidently assert that Sergei Pavlovich would for sure KO Jon Jones in the first round as TS did. Pavlovich has been in there with just two high level fighters in his career- One was Alistair Overeem who destroyed Sergei and finished in the first round. The other was Derrick Lewis and it was a weird fight that ended in under 1 min in a controversial stoppage. He has very very limited experience, he's a pretty unknown commodity at this point. Whereas Jon has obviously been in there with everyone and beat them all. He would have a huge speed advantage vs Sergei and a much more diverse striking attack. It's very possible that Jon would stay out of Sergei's range and cruise to a decision win or get the finish after Sergei gasses in the later rounds (we've never seen him out of the first round in the UFC). The biggest variable is one you pointed out- Which is that Jon has been out for awhile and we have no idea how he'll look now that he's older and had a long layoff. But it still doesn't seem very smart to bet on an inexperienced fighter like Pavlovich over him.

For sure, it is a ridiculous prediction to make lol. I think that Sergei has a good shot to KO Jones, but I wouldn't bet on it in the first round myself. The experience factor you mentioned is a huge in this fight. Once the fight hits the later rounds and a fighter of Jones IQ certainly works in his favor.

I am holding off on making many predictions on Jones at HW until I actually see him there and after a 3 year lay off.

 

[PlasticFishBowl]

Cool. Rampage, Shogun, Lyoto, Rashad, Vitor, DC, Gus, Glover couldn't hurt him at all. But Sergei Pavlovich would definitely KO him in round 1. For sure.

1.) Gus did hurt him.

2.) Those fights were at 205

3.) Those fights were years ago. Jon is old and inactive now. Knocking out 2023 Jones isn’t as hard as it would’ve been to knock out 2016 Jones.

 

[NoSmilez]

Arjan Bhullar has a better chance of beating Jones than Palovich.

 

[OverhandRightKayo]

Get banned already.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Idk about that. Sergei got TKOd by Overeem…who will most likely closely resemble the movement and fight style of a HW Jon Jones.

I pick Jones in ANY HW fight until I’m given reason to believe the contrary.

LMAO at comparing Jones to Overeem, Overeem has big KO power and a 89% finishing ratio. Jones has below average punching power at LHW and I don't see that changing at HW. Jones could beat Sergei but it would look nothing like Overeem vs Sergei.

 

[White lightning 2]

Cool. Rampage, Shogun, Lyoto, Rashad, Vitor, DC, Gus, Glover couldn't hurt him at all. But Sergei Pavlovich would definitely KO him in round 1. For sure.

Exactly. Like Jon was known for getting knocked out. Alone in round 1 bahahahaa

 

[Viper2]

The UFC Heavyweight Division will prove to be too tough for Jon Jones.

Just wait and see.

 

[RedMountain]

Easy.

Jones is 0-0 at HW for a reason.

 

[Captain Herb]

LMAO at comparing Jones to Overeem, Overeem has big KO power and a 89% finishing ratio. Jones has below average punching power at LHW and I don't see that changing at HW. Jones could beat Sergei but it would look nothing like Overeem vs Sergei.

Yeah, I don't get that comparison and Ubereem would be Jones' worst nightmare besides Ngannou, Gane, Blaydes, JDS, Cain, Brock, Werdum, Mir, Arlovski, Hunt, Rothwell, Nelson, Fedor, HW DC, Bigfoot, Browne, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few

 

[ermac88]

And Reem used to destroy Jones in sparring sessions. This is well known.

Lmao!!

Cause rolling on someones ankle in practice is testament to this.

Dudes are desperate for a fantasy jones killer

'when he was here he was always hurting somebody. Accidentally on purpose'

Anthony Johnson: Alistair Overeem Would Hurt People in Training on Purpose

bleacherreport.com/articles/2164944-anthony-johnson-alistair-overeem-would-hurt-people-in-training-on-purpose

 

[TITS]

Pavlovich is a bum. Imagine how ridiculous he's going to look if Tuivasa starches him then drinks beer out of a shoe.

 

[mkt]

And Reem used to destroy Jones in sparring sessions. This is well known.

Was that when he cut from 280 with like 5% body fat? He was still massive even after that...residual effects of unlimited PEDs. Plus I never trust gym bro stories. I mean Wand supposedly KO'd Anderson Silva which might have been true....but Anderson would eat his lunch any time from 2006 or later.