I'm considering changing my pick after recently going back and watching Garcia's last handful of fights. Now that this is official, here are my initial thoughts. Forgive the length.
Garcia might have to win this fight by stoppage/KO but his puncher's chance is excellent. He won't be able to outbox Campbell to a decision (legitimately), at least not on paper, as he doesn't appear to have the tools or the boxing skill for the job at this point in time. He also hasn't shown that he'd be busy enough to outwork Campbell to a decision, either. That said, if it does go the distance and it's competitive then I expect the cards to favor Garcia courtesy of Golden Boy. He's a future superstar in the sport and a potential cash cow in the making. If Garcia can't get the finish then it wouldn't come as a surprise if he won a controversial decision here.
Garcia's signature punch is obviously his hair trigger left hook usually on the counter, sometimes it comes as a lead. His second best punch in my opinion is his right uppercut. He has great reflexes, is a fast starter, has very fast hands, good power (mostly in his left hook which is really dangerous), sharp timing on that counter left hook, and precise shot placement with some of his punches (again, particularly his left hook) using that power punching style he's got. However, he doesn't actually box much and by design he's not very mobile, as his style doesn't require much in the way of mobility, unless of course he's moving off the line after punching. He's rather one-dimensional in that regard. His jab is underutilized if not underdeveloped. He knows how to set traps well and is sneaky good on the break when exiting the clinch (Braulio Rodriguez got hammered there with a short left hook that dropped him). Garcia ties up a lot when pressed but is dangerous when he lets his hands go. He has a lot of bad habits though that he hasn't been made to pay for yet. It appears to me that if you can survive this kid then you can outbox him assuming your left hook defense is absolutely airtight (unfortunately for Campbell, in general, he can be found frequently and mostly uses his length to avoid being hit). Trying to roll under his left hook isn't advisable as Garcia has shown he will adjust his aim mid-punch and still expertly place it as he did when he knocked out Romero. Garcia's defense also leaves a lot to be desired when he isn't just covering up, pulling away from punches (one of those bad habits I spoke of earlier), or clinching. He relies heavily on his reflexes for defense. His combination punching is effective but at times he gets real sloppy when letting his hands go looking for the KO which leaves him wide open to counters. As far as an actual long game goes Garcia doesn't have much to offer and his inside game is practically nonexistent. He's very dangerous though in the pocket, especially if you just stand right in front of him, which I don't expect Campbell will do.
I expect Campbell to be outboxing him as he's the superior boxer and technician while Garcia is the superior puncher and much more physically talented. Campbell is far better schooled in the boxing department with the much better pedigree. He's more experienced, has faced adversity, he's game, and the more complete fighter of the two. He's been down a few times in his pro career but never been stopped and he's big for the division, he's naturally a Junior Welterweight. As a big, long & rangy southpaw boxer/puncher with solid counterpunching skills and effective body work he'll be something very different for Garcia as far as the looks he'll be giving (angles included). He'll also hands down be the most skilled opponent Garcia's fought to date so this is a fairly big step up for Garcia. They're about the same height and have around the same reach, though it looks to me that Campbell has a bit more reach. And, unlike Garcia, he actually knows how to use that reach to his advantage. In saying that, Campbell is significantly slower, and Garcia will also have a significant youth advantage to go with his speed & power advantages. Speed has clearly troubled Campbell plenty in the past (against Mendy, Linares & Loma). As far as power, Campbell can punch if he chooses to (Lopez & Loma have already attested to this). Campbell is also the bigger stronger man, he has the larger frame, and I expect him to weigh a little more on fight night. If it goes 12 then it should favor Campbell as Garcia has never gone 12 before, as it stands he's never been past 8. Campbell needs to keep it long and either be all the way in or all the way out to avoid Garcia's best work at mid range.
Lastly, and contrary to popular belief, Garcia is largely what you call a punch placement guy, not necessarily a devastating natural puncher. Studying his KO reel seems to confirm that he's considerably more about placement & timing than actual punching power with his left hook specifically. He's even suggested as much. What this could mean is that he may have to find the button precisely in order to turn Campbell's lights out, and if he can't, he may not be able to score the stoppage/KO, at least not with that one big shot anyway. If that's the case then the good news for him is that his perceived "power" here likely will carry late into his fights because a good bit of it would be credited to pinpoint punch placement coupled with sharp timing rather than being more heavily rooted in actual punching power.
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