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International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V8

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Rholk said:
So hold on, not quite following here, what part don't you want to believe? No one is saying half the Russian airforce got destroyed here.
It's claiming half the Russian naval combat jets might have been put out of action here
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Huh? I believe there was a lot of jets blown up. I just don't believe it was " half " I believe the mod . Not Unnamed western officials

GhostZ06 said:
There is satellite photo imagery showing proof that at least half or a little bit over half have been destroyed
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Explosions at a Russian base knocked out over half the Black Sea fleet's combat jets, crippling its warfighting ability, Western officials and intelligence say.

Explosions at a Russian base knocked out over half the Black Sea fleet's combat jets, crippling its warfighting ability, Western officials and intelligence say


The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update last week that the jets lost only represent a small portion of Russia's overall aircraft inventory available to support its war efforts in Ukraine. But there was an outsized impact on the Black Sea fleet.

The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update last week that the jets lost only represent a small portion of Russia's overall aircraft inventory available to support its war efforts in Ukraine. But there was an outsized impact on the Black Sea fleet.


Notice its not mod saying half? So claiming mod confirmed it is bollucks. Just like when he claimed mod confirmed the iIlyushin being shot down.

Could it be half? Highly unlikely. But that's not mod. That's Unnamed western officials.

He likes attaching statements like mod confirmed it. To give it the illusion of official reports. When they don't.

Also the statement of me smelling my own farts as sources. When it's literally Strychnines sources is hilarious

 
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Rholk said:
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/08/more-ukraine-weaps/376080/
Someone is smelling weakness
<{jackyeah}>
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The British MOD predicted this stall some time ago.

Unfortunately for Russia, they're stalling at the same time as they're being infiltrated and 'sabotaged'.

Meanwhile, Ukraine resupply.

I was in the first Megathread and had no idea how Russia thought they could occupy an obviously hostile country, even if they 'won' the war.

Now, it's patently obvious they'll struggle to even occupy individual territories without serious losses.

There's no victory here for Russia. None whatsoever.

That was obvious in the first days of the war, and remains obvious now.

Russia's choices are: Occupy & Die, or Leave Ukraine.
 
Anewt said:
Huh? I believe there was a lot of jets blown up. I just don't believe it was " half " I believe the mod . Not Unnamed western officials




Explosions at a Russian base knocked out over half the Black Sea fleet's combat jets, crippling its warfighting ability, Western officials and intelligence say.

Explosions at a Russian base knocked out over half the Black Sea fleet's combat jets, crippling its warfighting ability, Western officials and intelligence say


The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update last week that the jets lost only represent a small portion of Russia's overall aircraft inventory available to support its war efforts in Ukraine. But there was an outsized impact on the Black Sea fleet.

The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update last week that the jets lost only represent a small portion of Russia's overall aircraft inventory available to support its war efforts in Ukraine. But there was an outsized impact on the Black Sea fleet.


Notice its not mod saying half? So claiming mod confirmed it is bollucks. Just like when he claimed mod confirmed the iIlyushin being shot down.

Could it be half? For sure. But that's not mod. That's Unnamed western officials.

He likes attaching statements like mod confirmed it. To give it the illusion of official reports. When they don't.

Also the statement of me smelling my own farts as sources. When it's literally Strychnines sources is hilarious
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Its honestly amazing to me that you don't understand that "half the Black sea fleet" (what the article's title said) doesn't equate to "half of Russia's overall aircraft inventory". You do know that they have aircraft that isn't apart of the "black sea fleet" right? So its actually possible that half the black sea fleet has been crippled and that it represents only "a small portion of Russia's overall aircraft inventory" can both be true.

This is not a gotcha unless you have very deep knowledge of Russia's aircraft inventory and can attest that half the black sea fleet represents a rather large portion of the Russia's overall aircraft inventory.
 
Siver! said:
The British MOD predicted this stall some time ago.

Unfortunately for Russia, they're stalling at the same time as they're being infiltrated and 'sabotaged'.

Meanwhile, Ukraine resupply.

I was in the first Megathread and had no idea how Russia thought they could occupy an obviously hostile country, even if they 'won' the war.

Now, it's patently obvious they'll struggle to even occupy individual territories without serious losses.

There's no victory here for Russia. None whatsoever.

That was obvious in the first days of the war, and remains obvious now.

Russia's choices are: Occupy & Die, or Leave Ukraine.
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This is wishful thinking. They de facto controlled most of Lugansk and Donetsk before the war, and all of Crimea. People question whether the Donbas areas really wanted to be part of Russia, but I don't think anyone thinks that even a fair referendum in Crimea would result in them wanting to rejoin Ukraine. Regardless, Ukraine does not have, and will not have absent American intervention, the naval and air power to invade Crimea.

In fact I think it's been surprising that there hasn't been more irregular warfare in the areas they've occupied already- which was my prediction, Ukraine is too old, westernized, and the terrain is too bad for Vietnam level guerrilla warfare. At most you will see sabotage, commando raids and terrorism.

As for retaking the offensive, that is very possible in time. However, at the moment the Ukrainians are frankly admitting that they do not have the vehicles or artillery to launch a serious offensive.
 
nixkid said:
Its honestly amazing to me that you don't understand that "half the Black sea fleet" (what the article's title said) doesn't equate to "half of Russia's overall aircraft inventory". You do know that they have aircraft that isn't apart of the "black sea fleet" right? So its actually possible that half the black sea fleet has been crippled and that it represents only "a small portion of Russia's overall aircraft inventory" can both be true.

This is not a gotcha unless you have very deep knowledge of Russia's aircraft inventory and can attest that half the black sea fleet represents a rather large portion of the Russia's overall aircraft inventory.
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet

Black sea fleet aviation division


2nd Guards Naval Aviation Division (Sevastopol; subordinate to the Black Sea Fleet)[52][53][258][259]

  • 43rd Independent Naval Shturmovik Maritime Attack Aviation Regiment[260] – HQ at Gvardeyskoye, Crimea – 18x Su-24M; 4x Su-24MR (being replaced by Sukhoi Su-30SMs as of 2019;[261] Su-30SMs reported active with the regiment as of 2021[262])
5 Squadrons of jets in the " black sea fleet.

Each squadron has between 12 and 24 aircraft.

7 - 13 is not half...... not even close.

It's not half of the black sea fleet... which is probably why the mod didn't say that it was.........

Of course they didn't claim half Russia's airforce lol. I'm talking about the black sea fleet........ it's not half or even close .......
 
Orgasmo said:
Russia is gassed out, but Ukraine doesn't have enough to push back either. To start a major offensive, you need large concentration of men, tanks, planes and artillery. While Ukraine is about to inflict stinging damage to Russia in the past month, they don't have enough to actually conduct meaningful counter-offensive.
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Can't really see either side beeing able to make any big push, the only exception i might see happening (soon) is in Kherson.
Long term i wonder how the Russians intend to keep the peace in areas they do occupy
One analysis on what problems the UA is facing:
 
Boxiana said:
Sorry, I don’t understand
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People have managed somehow to convince themselves its Russians shelling the nuclear plant. Despite Russian forces having controlled it since march.

Now Russian hardware is inside and shelling from it.

So regardless what happens. ( it gets hit by shells like before ) or suffers a explosion its Russia doing it.

Kyiv has accused Moscow, whose forces captured the nuclear plant in March, of using it as a shield from which it shells Ukrainian targets. While Moscow says Ukraine is the one shelling the plant – the largest nuclear reactor in Europe – Kyiv says it is Russian forces.

The Russian defence ministry said it was only by luck that a radiation accident had been avoided after what it described as an artillery barrage.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky though said Moscow was responsible and accused it of committing "an open, brazen crime, an act of terror".

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/47...sations-after-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-shelled


People believe Russia is shelling its own troops in the nuclear power plant. So of course next issue there . will mean a Russian false flag attack.

Seems the narrative is all prepared for whatever happens next.
 
PEB said:
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dx-dgeneration-x.gif
 
If about Crimea...
In period like 1952-1992 it was lucrative area to live....Because is was highest valued tourism area in all USSR....+ ofc well funded by Kremlin.
Place for elite and lucky ppl to spent vacation etc...
Power symbols: Yalta and Sevastopol.
Living standards were good and earning too: in tourism and related sectors...you might had get 1 salary from employer, 1-1,5-2 salaries from tips and if were part of USSR reality; underground economy ( cos to be small business was banned ) ...then 0,5-1-2-3 salaries from this too.

It results in 2,5- 6 salaries per month.
With low cost for mortgage rent and gubbermint fixed low prices in official stores...
Cool little paradise ..
Economy: mainly tourism and related + military bases .....

After 1992 th Crimea get super crisis: rich ppl from Ukr and Russia had opportunities to spent vacations in Turkey, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Monaco etc...
Tourism falled down....like stone from mounain.

Crimea turned from lucrative area to live in into...
high prices and high unemployment area with low salaries and still expensive mortgage...
Ofc a lot of ppl opted to relocate to Russia or Kiev, Lvov, with salaries more close to living expenses...
Kiev wasn't oppresive vs them...just didn't gave a fuck about living expenses and shitty situation in Crimea...

Maybe if honest referendum had been done in 2014 th...they had joined Russia...high chances...

While now?
Promised better life didn't had happened...
Now...lesser chances that locals in Crimea really support Russia....
 
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