Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Vergilius]

I was under the impression the initial plan was to liberate them east parts?

When was the plan shifted to a full take over?

Do we even know what the plan was?

This whole thing is confusing as fuck. So many stories floating about.

If the goal was merely to invade Donbas, it makes no sense for the Russians to attack Kiev, Mariupol, Kherson across multiple fronts, stretching their own forces and lines of supply beyond their capacities. If you want to know what Putin plans, don't listen to his words, look at his decisions:

He said he wouldn't invade, but then placed 150.000 troops along the Ukranian border. This is just like that.

 

[Anewt]

If the goal was merely to invade Donbas, it makes no sense for the Russians to attack Kiev, Mariupol, Kherson across multiple fronts, stretching their own forces and lines of supply beyond their capacities. If you want to know what Putin plans, don't listen to his words, look at his decisions:

He said he wouldn't invade, but then placed 150.000 troops along the Ukranian border. This is just like that.

It actually does tho.. look how successful Ukraine has been... what do you think would have happened in the donbas if all those fighters and weapons weren't forced to defend well away from the donbas?

 

[Khaiser]

It is really not a draw down if you make the math. They have approx. taken 30.7% of Ukraine and they wanna ethablish ceasefire then go again in couple of years from now but either they will be taking 30.7% of Ukraine if you count what they hold today. The devil is in the detail.

I had time on my hands so I did the calculations.

They currently hold approx. 185455 km2 (Including all of donbass) out of 603628 km2 that translates into 30.7% to be precise.

Regions where Russia holds fully or intends to hold fully: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea,

Regions where Russia will be holding when they declare ceasefire: 40% of Kyiv Oblast, 50% of Chernihiv, 80% of Sumy Oblast and 20% of Kharkiv Oblast including roughly 5 % of Mykolaiv Oblast..

The question people should be asking is will russia exit from this territories? the answer is no and especially for the 5 fully occupied main while they won't exit the others unless they swap these regions with other regions. I could see them wanting to hold on the part they hold in Kyiv oblast because of Chernobyl nuclear power plant and also they won't be wanting to exchange Kharkiv at all. I think they could swap Chernihiv, Sumy regions with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mykolaiv whereas I could see them wanting to exchange the parts they hold of Kyiv oblast with Kharkiv oblast even giving up on Chernobyl.

They initially also wanted Odessa but they do realize that taking Odessa will starve the Ukrainians of a port on the Black sea which would be unfair hence why I believe they will let Odessa stay with Ukraine.

Hence I could fence an end game of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv all going to Russia

Something like this minus Odessa (Which is the region bordering Moldova)

I don’t believe this is how things will look at all, not even close in fact, but only time will tell.

You have to weigh this up against the backdrop of untold economic damage and international isolation. There’s no ‘back to normal’ for Russia under Putin in this - into varying degrees of bad outcomes.

No, for me it’s much simpler. A nation fighting on three fronts, taking massive casualties and destruction of military hardware, with hopeless infrastructure, who have been crippled by sanctions, who simply bit of more than they could chew and underestimated western resolve on this issue.

 

[Khaiser]

If the goal was merely to invade Donbas, it makes no sense for the Russians to attack Kiev, Mariupol, Kherson across multiple fronts, stretching their own forces and lines of supply beyond their capacities. If you want to know what Putin plans, don't listen to his words, look at his decisions:

He said he wouldn't invade, but then placed 150.000 troops along the Ukranian border. This is just like that.

Bolded is relavent to everyone and absolutely applicable to Putin.

They’ve lost 7 generals ffs <45>

Massive desertions, terrible supple lines etc. nobody can seriously say it’s gone to plan for Russia.

 

[dragonsfly]

I don’t believe this is how things will look at all, not even close in fact, but only time will tell.

You have to weigh this up against the backdrop of untold economic damage and international isolation. There’s no ‘back to normal’ for Russia under Putin in this - into varying degrees of bad outcomes.

No, for me it’s much simpler. A nation fighting on three fronts, taking massive casualties and destruction of military hardware, with hopeless infrastructure, who have been crippled by sanctions, who simply bit of more than they could chew and underestimated western resolve on this issue.

Russia is not deterred by sanctions hence they will seize all of that but then again as someone said on the above Russia is sending out mixed statements example they said just 3 days ago that they will fight anyone who enters Ukraine and this was directed at Poland. But what the Russian want it is easy to understand and imho I thing they will go for Odessa and I have held the opinion from the get go that the Kiev attack was a bait to lock their forces into the capital region.

Here is how I see things unfolding. Russia will not back down from here and the sanctions will multiple in few months post the Ukraine war Russia will again repeat same trick this time on Finland to negotiate lifting of all sanctions it will succeed.

Russia is not deterred by sanctions by the way. The next attack from Russia will not be on Europe but surprisingly the US itself. Yes this may sound weird or rather strange but Russia knows it can't have it's way as long as the Americans are around and the same goes to China, North Korea etc etc. Like Brutus they will attempt to come for the US directly by attempting a sucker punch and attacking the US one morning unexpectingly but they won't just attack the US mainland out of the blue without doing atleast a decade of preparations combined by Russia, China and North Korea. This will be something similar to like Brutus and Gais stabbing Ceasar unexpectingly.

The reason the preparation will take so long is because they fear miscalculations occuring along the way sucker punching the Americans could go wildly wrong if not over-prepared every single sequence again and again into muscle memory. They know eliminating The US nobody will come to the aid of the Americans. They will try to EMP strike the US first on one innocent morning where all hostilities are not present in that year.... In the early hours of the morning.

Hence the US will boost it's armed forces along the NATO eastern flank and make coalitions and including counter plans and preparations meaning they have to draw first blood before they are struck out of the blue one morning and if that was to happen it is over because minutes later post an EMP all the American cities and populations centers could be hit simultaneously hence you have to pay close attention and the US will definitely want to draw first blood not allowing itself to get sucker punched hence the likely prediction here is intense intelligence gathering by the US constantly.

Not allowing this axis to carry out an outlandish sucker punch that could potentially change the course of history and the only reason this axis is forming is to bring the US down figuratively.

The counter from the US is basically to draw first blood and sucker punch the brain behind this operation which is without a doubt Russia because China and North Korea are timid unlike the Russians who could make this a reality and talk them into it. If the Brain is knocked out of the way the two others will be hesitant and just watch..

 

[Anewt]

Russia is not deterred by sanctions hence they will seize all of that but then again as someone said on the above Russia is sending out mixed statements example they said just 3 days ago that the will fight anyone who enters Ukraine and this was directed at Poland. But what the Russian want it is easy to understand and imho I thing they will go for Odessa and I have held the opinion from the get go that the Kiev attack was a bait to lock their forces into the capital region.

Here is how I see things unfolding. Russia will not back down from here and the sanctions will multiple in few months post the Ukraine war Russia will again repeat same trick this time on Finland to negotiate lifting of all sanctions it will succeed.

Russia is not deterred by sanctions by the way. The next attack from Russia will not be on Europe but surprisingly the US itself. Yes this may sound weird or rather strange but Russia knows it can't have it's way as long as the Americans are around and the same goes to China, North Korea etc etc. Like Brutus they will attempt to come for the US directly by attempting a sucker punch and attacking the US one morning unexpectingly but they won't just attack the US mainland out of the blue without doing atleast a decade of preparations combined by Russia, China and North Korea. This will be something similar to like Brutus and Gais stabbing Ceasar unexpectingly.

The reason the preparation will take so long is because they fear miscalculations occuring along the way sucker punching the Americans could go wildly wrong if not over-prepared every single sequence again and again into muscle memory. They know eliminating The US nobody will come to the aid of the Americans. They will try to EMP strike the US first on one innocent morning where all hostilities are not present in the year.... In the early hours of the morning.

Hence the US must boost it's armed forces along the NATO eastern flank and make coalitions and including counter plans and preparations as meaning they have to draw first blood before they are struck out of the blood one morning and if that was to happen it is over because minutes later post an EMP all the American cities and populations could be hit simultaneously hence you have to pay close attention.

Not allowing this axis to carry out an outlandish sucker punch that could potentially change the course of history and the only reason this axis is forming is to bring the US down figuratively.

The counter from the US is basically to draw first blood and sucker punch brain behind this operation which is without a doubt Russia because China and North Korea are timid unlike the Russians who could make this a reality and talk them into it. If the Brain is knocked out of the way the two others will be hesitant and just watch..

Interesting thoughts . Little more pessimistic than my outlook on the future tho

 

[Khaiser]

Russia is not deterred by sanctions hence they will seize all of that but then again as someone said on the above Russia is sending out mixed statements example they said just 3 days ago that the will fight anyone who enters Ukraine and this was directed at Poland. But what the Russian want it is easy to understand and imho I thing they will go for Odessa and I have held the opinion from the get go that the Kiev attack was a bait to lock their forces into the capital region.

Here is how I see things unfolding. Russia will not back down from here and the sanctions will multiple in few months post the Ukraine war Russia will again repeat same trick this time on Finland to negotiate lifting of all sanctions it will succeed.

Russia is not deterred by sanctions by the way. The next attack from Russia will not be on Europe but surprisingly the US itself. Yes this may sound weird or rather strange but Russia knows it can't have it's way as long as the Americans are around and the same goes to China, North Korea etc etc. Like Brutus they will attempt to come for the US directly by attempting a sucker punch and attacking the US one morning unexpectingly but they won't just attack the US mainland out of the blue without doing atleast a decade of preparations combined by Russia, China and North Korea. This will be something similar to like Brutus and Gais stabbing Ceasar unexpectingly.

The reason the preparation will take so long is because they fear miscalculations occuring along the way sucker punching the Americans could go wildly wrong if not over-prepared every single sequence again and again into muscle memory. They know eliminating The US nobody will come to the aid of the Americans. They will try to EMP strike the US first on one innocent morning where all hostilities are not present in the year.... In the early hours of the morning.

Hence the US must boost it's armed forces along the NATO eastern flank and make coalitions and including counter plans and preparations as meaning they have to draw first blood before they are struck out of the blood one morning and if that was to happen it is over because minutes later post an EMP all the American cities and populations could be hit simultaneously hence you have to pay close attention.

Not allowing this axis to carry out an outlandish sucker punch that could potentially change the course of history and the only reason this axis is forming is to bring the US down figuratively.

The counter from the US is basically to draw first blood and sucker punch brain behind this operation which is without a doubt Russia because China and North Korea are timid unlike the Russians who could make this a reality and talk them into it. If the Brain is knocked out of the way the two others will be hesitant and just watch..

Well needless to say I disagree with all of this.

Raw economics are the beginning and end of most geopolitical issues. Sanctions clearly aren’t enough to force Russia to abandon their war in Ukraine, but they’re very clearly having a catastrophic effect on the country, that will only multiply over time. Think if it almost like a siege - it might not matter much a few weeks into it, but months down the line with a constant, incrementally increasing pressure, and things begin to give.

No chance of Russia attacking the US. They would get fucked up beyond all recognition and they know it.

 

[PEB]

US running huge drills with Australia military in Australia. They have added additional weapons in this drill including stealth bomber. One war at a time people.

"
While the global attention is on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US is stepping up its engagements with Australia in the Indo-Pacific region to deter a ‘belligerent’ China.

On 23 March, a B-2 stealth bomber conducted a mission in the region with five different fighter aircraft from the US Air Force and the Royal Australian Air Force, the Pacific Air Forces announced in a press release.

A USAF B-2 ‘Spirit’ flew from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, to RAAF base Amberley, Australia. The combat aircraft was linked to the 509th Bomb Wing and became the first B-2 Spirit to land at RAAF Base Amberley, the release stated. "

https://www.google.com/amp/s/eurasi...flies-with-australian-f-35-fighter-jet-china/

 

[AL-Tappo McSnappo]

Russians disarming land mines and IED's

 

[Darkballs]

I was under the impression the initial plan was to liberate them east parts?

When was the plan shifted to a full take over?

Do we even know what the plan was?

This whole thing is confusing as fuck. So many stories floating about.

Well there is no practical reason to push your forces to 15 miles outside of Kyiv, stretch your supply lines to the breaking point, and lose thousands of troops and equipment if your only goal was Donbas. You just concentrate your forces there.

This isn't very complicated unless your bending over backwards to excuse a piss-poor russian performance. They overestimated Ukraine, got their asses handed to them, and now they see the writing on the wall. So they quit and pretend this utter clusterfuck was all part of the plan.

I'm honestly amazed anyone would buy it, but I guess putin's gotta say something.

 

[PEB]

Yeah US joins the hypersonic arms race could we try peace people lol.

"Lockheed Martin and the US Air Force have completed the first flight test of a tactical version of the hypersonic AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW). Strapped beneath the wing of a B-52 Stratofortress bomber, the missile was carried into the skies over Edwards Air Force Base, California, on August 8, 2020, in a captive test where it was not released for free flight. Coming soon though one guesses"

 

[dragonsfly]

Well needless to say I disagree with all of this.

Raw economics are the beginning and end of most geopolitical issues. Sanctions clearly aren’t enough to force Russia to abandon their war in Ukraine, but they’re very clearly having a catastrophic effect on the country, that will only multiply over time. Think if it almost like a siege - it might not matter much a few weeks into it, but months down the line with a constant, incrementally increasing pressure, and things begin to give.

No chance of Russia attacking the US. They would get fucked up beyond all recognition and they know it.

The sanctions will start to cause pain around a year or 2 but I predict that all of the sanctions will be lifted because they will hold finland hostage in less then a year from now. Come 2023 summer Putin will place 100.000 forces along the Finnish border then we will begin another intense negotiations and he will demand lifting of the sanctions..

Russia will not attempt to sucker punch the US alone hence they will bring in China and North Korea for this. If the US was to get sucker punched.. I can guraantee you it is over.. The US will simply de-exist as a country and the population reduced by 95% in just few months to one year aside from the impact on population centers which will claim roughly 40% of population the majority will die from the following nuclear winter and the failure of the crops. There will be no food.

Hence it is key to stay sharp and well prepared and ahead of the game while not allowing to get caught.

But I believe the US will sucker punch them before they get sucker punched. I believe the US will boost it's forces along the eastern flank of NATO to the point where they reach operational level. Catching the other side unsuspecting and initially become the one to first pull the trigger

 

[7even]

My point merely is pmcs in west are used differently like during middle east stuff it was convoy protection, guarding hospitals etc humanitarian stuff or vip protection, basically stuff like that which is not offensive in nature.

Wagner is used purely for offence(take over oilfield or part of city etc) and as cannon fodder to lessen casualties of official army.

Have never heard of western pmcs used like that

Weren’t PMCs used in Iraq to smoke out insurgents attacking from mosques? I know the us military couldn’t engage insurgents that attacked within a mosques due to the Geneva convention. So they hired civilian contractors to take them out.

 

[Cole train]

Weren’t PMCs used in Iraq to smoke out insurgents attacking from mosques? I know the us military couldn’t engage insurgents that attacked within a mosques due to the Geneva convention. So they hired civilian contractors to take them out.

Muricans probably know more than me especially since there are actual vets of that war here.

But might be possible

 

[Cole train]

The sanctions will start to cause pain around a year or 2 but I predict that all of the sanctions will be lifted because they will hold finland hostage in less then a yar from now. Come 2023 summer Putin will place 100.000 forces along the Finnish border then we will begin another intense negotiations and he will demand lifting of the sanctions..

Russia will not attempt to sucker punch the US alone hence they will bring in China and North Korea for this. If the US was to get sucker punched.. I can guraantee you it is over.. The US will simply de-exist as a country where and the population reduced by 95% in just few months to one year aside from impact on population centers which will claim roughly 40% of population the majority will die from the following nuclear winter and the failure of the crops. There will be no food.

Hence it is key to stay sharp and well prepared and ahead of the game while not allowing to get caught.

But I believe the US will sucker punch them before they get sucker punched. I believe the US will boost it's forces along the eastern flank of NATO to the point where they reach operational level. Catching the other side unsuspecting and initially become the one to first pull the trigger

Would need more than 100.000 if we go by numbers

 

[Darkballs]

Russia is not deterred by sanctions

You just quit because of sanctions.

It isn't just a matter of Russia plowing ahead while their economy embraces the stone age. They can barely afford working trucks and non-expired food. That military budget certainly isn't go to grow any time soon, so the idea that the strong will of the russian people will see them through carries about as much truth as when they claimed, a month ago, that this would only take 48-hours.

 

[SanchoMF]

The sanctions will start to cause pain around a year or 2 but I predict that all of the sanctions will be lifted because they will hold finland hostage in less then a year from now. Come 2023 summer Putin will place 100.000 forces along the Finnish border then we will begin another intense negotiations and he will demand lifting of the sanctions..

Russia will not attempt to sucker punch the US alone hence they will bring in China and North Korea for this. If the US was to get sucker punched.. I can guraantee you it is over.. The US will simply de-exist as a country and the population reduced by 95% in just few months to one year aside from the impact on population centers which will claim roughly 40% of population the majority will die from the following nuclear winter and the failure of the crops. There will be no food.

Hence it is key to stay sharp and well prepared and ahead of the game while not allowing to get caught.

But I believe the US will sucker punch them before they get sucker punched. I believe the US will boost it's forces along the eastern flank of NATO to the point where they reach operational level. Catching the other side unsuspecting and initially become the one to first pull the trigger

What is this garbage?

 

[dragonsfly]

Would need more than 100.000 if we go by numbers

It would only be for flexing in order to get NATO into another round of intense negotiations in order to lift the sanctions but if NATO says again you know what fuk off go ahead? he will act on it unfortunately but initially that is not his plan but just using them as hostage to lift all sanctions..

You just quit because of sanctions.

It isn't just a matter of Russia plowing ahead while their economy embraces the stone age. They can barely afford working trucks and non-expired food. That military budget certainly isn't go to grow any time soon, so the idea that the strong will of the russian people will see them through carries about as much truth as when they claimed, a month ago, that this would only take 48-hours.

Sanctions will eventually do damage but not enough as it should have as China is easing the pain and helping them bypass it to some form and degree. But eventually it will hurt

 

[Vergilius]

It actually does tho.. look how successful Ukraine has been... what do you think would have happened in the donbas if all those fighters and weapons weren't forced to defend well away from the donbas?

The converse is true: if Russia had massed their ressources for one push along a single front (or even two), where they could actually supply their troops, where the locals were less hostile and where they could concentrate their fire, it stands to reason that they would have been much more succesful. All the troops and materials sent towards Kyiv have basically been thrown away for nothing. Thousands of lives and 100s of millions worth of equipment wasted on a fool's errand.

 

[Darkballs]

Weren’t PMCs used in Iraq to smoke out insurgents attacking from mosques? I know the us military couldn’t engage insurgents that attacked within a mosques due to the Geneva convention. So they hired civilian contractors to take them out.

No.

You can most certainly kill a guy shooting at you from a protected building, whether that be a mosque, hospital, etc. If you are going by a strict reading of international law, then those buildings lose their protected status the moment they are used for military purposes. Still, according to the same laws, you are obligated to minimize damage to those buildings. But you're getting into a grey area that's kinda unenforceable if you have legit combatants fighting from that position. Because at the end of the day, what is the appropriate use of force for X amount of guys using X ordinance?

Regardless, pretty much anytime we rolled into a new city (I was only there for the initial invasion and about six-months after) we took fire from pretty much three places: the mosque, the hospital, and the school. We shot back. No fucks were given.

As far as Blackwater goes, I never heard of them being used in any capacity other than general route clearing, security details (mostly in the green zone), and basic transport stuff. Granted, I never worked with them though, only interacted with them in garrison. Thought they were twats though.