Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Darkballs]

Sanctions will eventually do damage but not enough as it should have as China is easing the pain and helping them bypass it to some form and degree. But eventually it will hurt

China isn't going to be a lifeline. What are they going to do? Buy gas at an inflated price for years to come? No way. They can't even make up 10% of the loss revenue from Europe, let alone float that sector out of goodwill. And that's just oil and gas. These sanctions are gonna hit every nook and cranny of the russian economy.

 

[dragonsfly]

What is this?

I know it is unimaginable and I could understand why someone would say this but think about it for a second. If you had enough power-fire to do it? Will it not be easy taking out the mother load and then return to pick up the scattered children states spread around Europe without much chellenge..

How will you fight WW3 from their perspective? Would you go for the resourceful supplier of the smaller states or the smaller states constantly being re-supplied by the resourceful element. Hence destroying the US will mean by default the fall of Europe

 

[Vergilius]

The sanctions will start to cause pain around a year or 2 but I predict that all of the sanctions will be lifted because they will hold finland hostage in less then a year from now. Come 2023 summer Putin will place 100.000 forces along the Finnish border then we will begin another intense negotiations and he will demand lifting of the sanctions..

Russia will not attempt to sucker punch the US alone hence they will bring in China and North Korea for this. If the US was to get sucker punched.. I can guraantee you it is over.. The US will simply de-exist as a country and the population reduced by 95% in just few months to one year aside from the impact on population centers which will claim roughly 40% of population the majority will die from the following nuclear winter and the failure of the crops. There will be no food.

Hence it is key to stay sharp and well prepared and ahead of the game while not allowing to get caught.

But I believe the US will sucker punch them before they get sucker punched. I believe the US will boost it's forces along the eastern flank of NATO to the point where they reach operational level. Catching the other side unsuspecting and initially become the one to first pull the trigger

You can't "sucker punch" either the US or Russia out of existence without getting obliterated yourself. There are nuclear submarines in the Atlantic ocean at all times that nobody can touch and which pack enough punch to utterly destroy any nation on Earth.

Putin is not going to come for Finland unless he goes raving insane, and China isn't going to back him like a willing pawn - they will only do what is in their own interest and Russia has limited importance to them.

 

[MIKOM]

The sanctions will start to cause pain around a year or 2 but I predict that all of the sanctions will be lifted because they will hold finland hostage in less then a year from now. Come 2023 summer Putin will place 100.000 forces along the Finnish border then we will begin another intense negotiations and he will demand lifting of the sanctions..

Russia will not attempt to sucker punch the US alone hence they will bring in China and North Korea for this. If the US was to get sucker punched.. I can guraantee you it is over.. The US will simply de-exist as a country and the population reduced by 95% in just few months to one year aside from the impact on population centers which will claim roughly 40% of population the majority will die from the following nuclear winter and the failure of the crops. There will be no food.

Hence it is key to stay sharp and well prepared and ahead of the game while not allowing to get caught.

But I believe the US will sucker punch them before they get sucker punched. I believe the US will boost it's forces along the eastern flank of NATO to the point where they reach operational level. Catching the other side unsuspecting and initially become the one to first pull the trigger

Fantasy land

 

[Dexter]

There's plenty of western pmcs mate

@Cole train is spot-on here - the so-called "Wagner" PMC (btw, we are still laughing at this "nickname" here in Russia <Lmaoo>, it's like naming Academi "Prince" PMC), which is actually not a group, not "Wagner", and not PMC , is pretty unique. The closest western analogue would be good ol' French Foreign Legion. But it's complete offtopic here.

 

[Anewt]

The converse is true: if Russia had massed their ressources for one push along a single front (or even two), where they could actually supply their troops, where the locals were less hostile and where they could concentrate their fire, it stands to reason that they would have been much more succesful. All the troops and materials sent towards Kyiv have basically been thrown away for nothing. Thousands of lives and 100s of millions worth of equipment wasted on a fool's errand.

Yeah they have been... unfortunately fients cost lives.. it's the nature of war. I said this at the beginning of this. I haven't changed my view point .

Do I think it's gone to plan? No I think they thought the display of force would be enough to keep Ukraine's forces tied up. But Ukraine as been far more willing to engage.. it's why as their losses went up the force Escalated.

To take cities you need infantry. A lot of it to go house to house.. unless your willing to go scorched earth. I haven't seen any mass pushes of infantry so I don't believe Kiev was ever a goal. Apart from tieing up Ukrainian forces.

As I've stated. The line facing donbas was fortified military positions, trenches bunkers etc for 250 miles with veteran military. It would have been carnage for the Russians.

Just my viewpoint mate.

 

[dragonsfly]

You can't "sucker punch" either the US or Russia out of existence without getting obliterated yourself. There are nuclear submarines in the Atlantic ocean at all times that nobody can touch and which pack enough punch to utterly destroy any nation on Earth.

Putin is not going to come for Finland unless he goes raving insane, and China isn't going to back him like a willing pawn - they will only do what is in their own interest and Russia has limited importance to them.

I know about these submarines and the second strike policy but here is the thing no country puts all of it's nuclear weapons into the ocean but only few perhaps fewer then 30-40 at times meaning if you get sucker punched it will hurt massively and existential and yes the second strike policy will do damage but not nearly able to fuck up someone like the one who pulls the trigger first.

Do the math eating 2000 warheads within an hour vs eating 50 warheads in return from the second strike capability? Which one do you wanna be? the guy being GnP 'ed or the one landing few from below..

It is not remotely the same thing...

China, Russia and North Korea could completely destroy the US within hours the capability is there and combined they are more lethal

 

[MIKOM]

I was under the impression the initial plan was to liberate them east parts?

When was the plan shifted to a full take over?

Do we even know what the plan was?

This whole thing is confusing as fuck. So many stories floating about.

Two of Putin's stated aims were the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. How does dicktucking and running away from keiv all the way back to the east complete these aims?

 

[MIKOM]

It’s a way for Russia to save face, and exactly what NATO have been looking for since day 1 (as far as ending this illegal invasion goes) - an out for Putin to take.

It doesn’t need to be that confusing with this simple analogy I came across.

Russia and Ukraine are neighbours.

One day Mr Russia gets word that Mr Ukraine beats his wife, and sets of to liberate her - by battering her himself.

Despite being a foot smaller and 70lb lighter than Mr Russia, Mr Ukraine beats the snot out of him.

Mr Russia then regroups and decides he will continue, but turns his attention to liberating Mr and Mrs Ukraine’s cat instead.

Poetry
*Chef's kiss

 

[mkess101]

I know about these submarines and the second strike policy but here is the thing no country puts all of it's nuclear weapons into the ocean but only few perhaps fewer then 30-40 at times meaning if you get sucker punched it will hurt massively and existential and yes the second strike policy will do damage but not nearly able to fuck up someone like the one who pulls the trigger first.

Do the math eating 2000 warheads within an hour vs eating 50 warheads in return from the second strike capability? Which one do you wanna be? the guy being GnP 'ed or the one landing few from below..

It is not remotely the same thing

You realize our satellites and other tech allows us to know instantly (and even a little before launch) when the Russians would fire those nukes right? You think our immediate second strike protocols are only for our submarine based nukes? Our silos would be firing back plenty more than that.

In addition, whose nukes do you think have been better maintained? The country with the trillion dollar military budget? Or the one begging China to send MRE's to help feed troops they sent into a neighboring country? Who's more likely to have a functional missile defense that at least picks off some of the other nations nukes?

Not trying to be an asshole, but your scenarios are fantasy. Putin isn't an idiot. He knows full well if he launched an ICBM (or a bunch of them) he's essentially wiping his own country off the map. So if he ever did it, it would not be under the delusion of "well maybe we'll only take 50 of them back at us and we launched 1000 so we win!"

 

[7even]

No.

You can most certainly kill a guy shooting at you from a protected building, whether that be a mosque, hospital, etc. If you are going by a strict reading of international law, then those buildings lose their protected status the moment they are used for military purposes. Still, according to the same laws, you are obligated to minimize damage to those buildings. But you're getting into a grey area that's kinda unenforceable if you have legit combatants fighting from that position. Because at the end of the day, what is the appropriate use of force for X amount of guys using X ordinance?

Regardless, pretty much anytime we rolled into a new city (I was only there for the initial invasion and about six-months after) we took fire from pretty much three places: the mosque, the hospital, and the school. We shot back. No fucks were given.

As far as Blackwater goes, I never heard of them being used in any capacity other than general route clearing, security details (mostly in the green zone), and basic transport stuff. Granted, I never worked with them though, only interacted with them in garrison. Thought they were twats though.

I swear I read an article around 2006 that PMCs were used because of the mosques.

 

[lsa]

It would only be for flexing in order to get NATO into another round of intense negotiations in order to lift the sanctions but if NATO says again you know what fuk off go ahead? he will act on it unfortunately but initially that is not his plan but just using them as hostage to lift all sanctions..



Sanctions will eventually do damage but not enough as it should have as China is easing the pain and helping them bypass it to some form and degree. But eventually it will hurt

The sanctions are from EU and other countries not from NATO....

 

[dragonsfly]

You realize our satellites and other tech allows us to know instantly (and even a little before launch) when the Russians would fire those nukes right? You think our immediate second strike protocols are only for our submarine based nukes? Our silos would be firing back plenty more than that.

In addition, whose nukes do you think have been better maintained? The country with the trillion dollar military budget? Or the one begging China to send MRE's to help feed troops they sent into a neighboring country? Who's more likely to have a functional missile defense that at least picks off some of the other nations nukes?

Not trying to be an asshole, but your scenarios are fantasy. Putin isn't an idiot. He knows full well if he launched an ICBM (or a bunch of them) he's essentially wiping his own country off the map. So if he ever did it, it would not be under the delusion of "well maybe we'll only take 50 if them back at us and we launched 1000 so we win!"

Satellites won't matter if you get EMP'ed hence you can't launch fromt the silos but only from the ocean or third countries that host US bases with nuclear capability.

I don't think they will take such appraoch currently nor out of the blue because such action will change the course of history since it needs significiant amount of planning and preparations for years if not a decade or 2.

The American intelligence knows that this alliance is there for them and eventually there will be an endgame but only ones the world economy collapses they will have nothing to lose hence why activating the plan at that point will make perfect sense.

The only reason there is no WW3 or world wars is because of the world economy and if it collapses due to natural disaster via comet, asteroid or even global warming including from Volcano eruption which could also cause nuclear winter etc etc All in all during a world economy collapse all wild plans will be normal on that day as nobody has anything left to lose.

1. You will either watch your citizens go to civil war and compete for resources within the country and destroy everything

2. start a war by invoking patriotism and conquests in order to divert a civil war on your territory hence nobody will have anything to lose at that point and it will be completely different world

Everyone will chose the 2nd option in such scenario even you yourself..

 

[mkess101]

Satellites won't matter if you get EMP'ed hence you can't launch fromt he silos but only from the ocean or third countries that host US bases with nuclear capability.

I don't think they will take such appraoch currently nor out of the blue because such action will change the course of history since it needs significiant amount of planning and preparations for years if not a decade or 2.

The American intelligence does know that this alliance is there for them and eventually there will be an endgame and ones the world economy collapse they will have nothing to lose if they activated such plan

You realize we outspend all these nations combined numerous times over on our military right? We have fail-safes for all of these fantasy scenarios you're throwing out there. You are ascribing these magical capabilities to a nation that can't even seem to figure out basic logistics and field communication on their current foray. And then acting like China wants to team up with them against us and cripple themselves in the process.

It's absurd from any rational perspective.

 

[Darkballs]

I swear I read an article around 2006 that PMCs were used because of the mosques.

I'm open to the idea of it happening, but I'm skeptical.

For one, using a PMC wouldn't exactly insulate the US from any political or legal blowback. We had western reporters crawling all over Iraq. So it's not like using a PMC wouldn't get coverage. Second, the PMC's had some adequate light armor and ordinance up to mounted .50's, but we'd still be putting them at risk by asking them, rather than the much better equipped formal military, to take on any fortified target.

The only thing I can think of, is I know there was some blowback from locals about American's setting foot inside mosques period. So later in the war we mostly used the Iraqi armor to search and I'm sure occasionally clear out mosques. But I can't think of us relegating that to PMC's.

Still, I was only there in the beginning, so I stand to be corrected.

 

[mkess101]

Satellites won't matter if you get EMP'ed hence you can't launch fromt the silos but only from the ocean or third countries that host US bases with nuclear capability.

I don't think they will take such appraoch currently nor out of the blue because such action will change the course of history since it needs significiant amount of planning and preparations for years if not a decade or 2.

The American intelligence knows that this alliance is there for them and eventually there will be an endgame but only ones the world economy collapses they will have nothing to lose hence why activating the plan at that point will make perfect sense.

The only reason there is no WW3 or world wars is because of the world economy and if it collapses due to natural disaster via comet, asteroid or even global warming including from Volcano eruption which could also cause nuclear winter etc etc All in all during a world economy collapse all wild plans will be normal on that day as nobody has everything left to lose.

1. You will either watch your citizens go to civil war and compete for resources within the country and destroy everything

2. start a war by invoking patriotism and conquests in order to divert a civil war on your territory hence nobody will have anything to lose at that point and it will be completely different world

Everyone will chose the 2nd option in such scenario even you yourself..

Oh sorry you added more. I didn't realize we were also talking about WW3 due to a comet hitting earth. My bad. I guess now I'm in agreement. We're all fucked.

 

[Videer]

So what? They get to do much much more than training according to the treaty. Technically they could even directly intervene and still not be in violation of agreement.

Look, I'm just letting you know why Putin is sitting like a cuck as we provide deadly advanced weapon systems to turn his military into bbq. Because he knows they are the ones to violate the agreement and America is just following through with what it PROMISED it would do. America needs to follow through with promises or else other nations will not trust it, just like they don't trust Russia.

Why are you trying to strawman me with stupid shit about Iraq or Afghanistan? Stick to topic at hand mate.

Nevermind the fact that Russia does not even have the capability to target the moving shipments especially not in western Ukraine in any meaningful scale.

 

[MIKOM]

Oh sorry you added more. I didn't realize we were also talking about WW3 due to a comet hitting earth. My bad. I guess now I'm in agreement. We're all fucked.

Fantasy land squared

<Oku02>

 

[dragonsfly]

Oh sorry you added more. I didn't realize we were also talking about WW3 due to a comet hitting earth. My bad. I guess now I'm in agreement. We're all fucked.

Life is about scenarios and this is what creates different puzzles and political realities thru out the world since the dawn of mankind.

Example why do you think the Mongol blitz invasions came? It was due to famine and drought in their areas which killed most of their life-stock this forced upon them extreme measures which is looting and invading. They had nothing to lose at that point.

WW1 and WW2 was due to economical severe recessions and collapses.. The Germans were given no other option in WW2 then to go on the offense and they had nothing to lose at that point...

Different scenarios can always arise out of nothing

 

[mkess101]

Life is about scenarios and this is what creates different puzzles and political realities thru out the world since the dawn of mankind.

Example why do you think the Mongol blitz invasions came? It was due to famine and drought in their areas which killed most of their life-stock this forced upon them extreme measures which is looting and invading.

WW1 and WW2 was due to economical collapses and severe recessions.. The Germans were given no other option in WW2 then to go on the offense

And you extrapolated that to an asteroid causing WW3.

How about...and this is just a thought...we focus on actual real life world issues and we'll call up Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck if we need them in your scenario?