Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Khaiser]

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said in a speech.

"The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbass."

From the horses mouth, but will wait to see if it’s followed up by action. Either way, that’s a massive, massive climb down from Russia.

 

[PEB]

Russian Oligarch worth 5 billion at peak now says he cannot pay his bills. He owns hotels in London an is seeking temporary bailout to pay his employees I think? Nice shift that people could lose their jobs. It was brought up on Sky TV MSNBC this morning. Pretty much all morning belongs to Sky TV.

 

[Anewt]

Russian Oligarch worth 5 billion at peak now says he cannot pay his bills. He owns hotels in London an is seeking temporary bailout to pay his employees I think? Nice shift that people could lose their jobs. It was brought up on Sky TV MSNBC this morning. Pretty much all morning belongs to Sky TV.

It's not really a great surprise that regular people ( not just Russians ) will also suffer with the sanctions . Is it ?

 

[Blayt7hh]

To many this is more about American politics then the actual war. If Trump was president the same people on both sides would change their tune 180.

Sadly true.

 

[Cole train]

There's plenty of western pmcs mate

Not like wagner

 

[Yotsuya]

Dude, you ran into a 3rd or 4th thread we were discussing it. Calm down, read them, if you really want to argue something. My statement was - Ukrainians have neo-nazi support on government level (both in military and in politics - examples are "Azov" regiment and "Svoboda" National-social party), while in Russian these groups that survived the anti-nazi cull of 200x are operating well beyond the law.

In last election the far right coalition got 2,5% of votes in Ukraine and failed to get anyone elected. I have no idea how big proportion of the far right coalition are nazis, but I'd guess pretty tiny minority. The amount of nazis fighting in Azov has been estimated around 10-20% so that's 150-300 at best. They don't have their own squads, but have been spread throughout the battalion.

So you say that in Russia nazis are operating outside the law. Who the fuck cares as long as you have a totalitarian regime in control throwing people to prison for up to 15 year if they speak agains the war and a president who openly idolises Stalin who orchestrated the ethnic purge called Holomordor in which at least 3 million Ukrainians died. The history of Russian nationalism is way bloodier and longer that what nazis have. Russians are the last people in Europe to have right to complain about totalitarianism let alone start a war over it.

 

[Anewt]

Not like wagner

I honestly haven't looked into them for awhile. But iirc there's no nazi ones.

The attempted coup in Guinea was one of the one more recent ones I'd watched anything on. Quite a few high ranked politicians had their fingers in that one.

But that was 2004 . Simon Mann is a very interesting chap if you're interested in a good read.

 

[jeffk]

Julia Ioffee was on Bill Maher's show to discuss the conflict.

They got sidetracked and she told a joke.

 

[Cole train]

I honestly haven't looked into them for awhile. But iirc there's no nazi ones.

The attempted coup in Guinea was one of the one more recent ones I'd watched anything on. Quite a few high ranked politicians had their fingers in that one.

But that was 2004 . Simon Mann is a very interesting chap if you're interested in a good read.

My point merely is pmcs in west are used differently like during middle east stuff it was convoy protection, guarding hospitals etc humanitarian stuff or vip protection, basically stuff like that which is not offensive in nature.

Wagner is used purely for offence(take over oilfield or part of city etc) and as cannon fodder to lessen casualties of official army.

Have never heard of western pmcs used like that

 

[Armbars]

Russia hints at scaling back war on Ukraine | News | The Times


Russia hints at scaling back war on Ukraine
Military says it will focus on eastern front after defeats around Kyiv

LOL

I was under the impression the initial plan was to liberate them east parts?

When was the plan shifted to a full take over?

Do we even know what the plan was?

This whole thing is confusing as fuck. So many stories floating about.

 

[Anewt]

My point merely is pmcs in west are used differently like during middle east stuff it was convoy protection, guarding hospitals etc humanitarian stuff or vip protection, basically stuff like that which is not offensive in nature.

Wagner is used purely for offence(take over oilfield or part of city etc) and as cannon fodder to lessen casualties of official army.

Have never heard of western pmcs used like that

Oh .. look up attempted coup in Guinea.

I'm sure there's a lot more like that, that haven't been caught.

 

[Anewt]

I was under the impression the initial plan was to liberate them east parts?

When was the plan shifted to a full take over?

Do we even know what the plan was?

This whole thing is confusing as fuck. So many stories floating about.

That was the stated plan. That never changed imo. ( lots of people will disagree with my assessment though ) But it's a good way for Ukraine and nato to " win " and declare victory. Just like everyone is going to.

 

[Ruprecht]

My point merely is pmcs in west are used differently like during middle east stuff it was convoy protection, guarding hospitals etc humanitarian stuff or vip protection, basically stuff like that which is not offensive in nature.

Wagner is used purely for offence(take over oilfield or part of city etc) and as cannon fodder to lessen casualties of official army.

Have never heard of western pmcs used like that

Executive Outcomes was that sort of mercenary. The Australian government was going to allow PNG to use them to take Bougainville and get the mine running again, until it made national news and their Mi-24s eventually ended up in a landfill near Darwin.

 

[Cole train]

Executive Outcomes was that sort of mercenary. The Australian government was going to allow PNG to use them to take Bougainville and get the mine running again, until it made national news and their Mi-24s eventually ended up in a landfill near Darwin.

Yeah i know about them but they are south african unit.Not a western one that i was talking about.

They play by own rules lol like main character in blood diamond says "this is africa"

 

[Ruprecht]

Yeah i know about them but they are south african unit.Not a western one that i was talking about.

They play by own rules lol like main character in blood diamond says "this is africa"

South African founder, but lots of them were Brits and they operated out of the UK. Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap.

 

[Anewt]

Yeah i know about them but they are south african unit.Not a western one that i was talking about.

They play by own rules lol like main character in blood diamond says "this is africa"

They were hired by English politicians to create the coup in Guinea.....

 

[Rholk]

That was the stated plan. That never changed imo. ( lots of people will disagree with my assessment though ) But it's a good way for Ukraine and nato to " win " and declare victory. Just like everyone is going to.

C O P E


Perhaps it's time for a special Polish operation

 

[dragonsfly]

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said in a speech.

"The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbass."

From the horses mouth, but will wait to see if it’s followed up by action. Either way, that’s a massive, massive climb down from Russia.

It is really not a draw down if you make the math. They have approx. taken 30.7% of Ukraine and they wanna ethablish ceasefire then go again in couple of years from now but either way they will be taking 30.7% of Ukraine if you count what they hold today. The devil is in the detail.

I had time on my hands so I did the calculations.

They currently hold approx. 185455 km2 (Including all of donbass) out of 603628 km2 that translates into 30.7% to be precise.

Regions where Russia holds fully or intends to hold fully: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea,

Regions where Russia holds partially: 40% of Kyiv Oblast, 50% of Chernihiv, 80% of Sumy Oblast and 20% of Kharkiv Oblast including roughly 5 % of Mykolaiv Oblast..

The question people should be asking is will russia exit from this territories? the answer is no and especially for the 5 fully occupied main while they won't exit the others unless they swap these regions with other regions. I could see them wanting to hold on the part they hold in Kyiv oblast because of Chernobyl nuclear power plant and also they won't be wanting to exchange Kharkiv at all. I think they could swap Chernihiv, Sumy regions with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mykolaiv whereas I could see them wanting to exchange the parts they hold of Kyiv oblast with Kharkiv oblast even giving up on Chernobyl.

They initially also wanted Odessa but they do realize that taking Odessa will starve the Ukrainians of a port on the Black sea which would be unfair hence why I believe they will let Odessa stay with Ukraine.

Hence I could fence an end game of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv all going to Russia

Something like this minus Odessa (Which is the region bordering Moldova)

 

[Anewt]

C O P E


Perhaps it's time for a special Polish operation

Ummm.... riiiigggghhtttt

 

[Khaiser]

I was under the impression the initial plan was to liberate them east parts?

When was the plan shifted to a full take over?

Do we even know what the plan was?

This whole thing is confusing as fuck. So many stories floating about.

It’s a way for Russia to save face, and exactly what NATO have been looking for since day 1 (as far as ending this illegal invasion goes) - an out for Putin to take.

It doesn’t need to be that confusing with this simple analogy I came across.

Russia and Ukraine are neighbours.

One day Mr Russia gets word that Mr Ukraine beats his wife, and sets of to liberate her - by battering her himself.

Despite being a foot smaller and 70lb lighter than Mr Russia, Mr Ukraine beats the snot out of him.

Mr Russia then regroups and decides he will continue, but turns his attention to liberating Mr and Mrs Ukraine’s cat instead.