International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[joy2day]

 

[rocketskates]

Definitely should, deterrence needs to be important so crap like this doesnt become acceptable. When Putler took Crimea and the West basically took a knee to him this war was just a matter of time. This hopefully will deter China from invading Taiwan if China knows the world will not allow it.

Agreed. At first I wanted peace and for this war to end, now that we’ve tried playing nice with Putin and he refuses to play ball—it’s time to crush him. Load up the sanctions and make him feel it.

I think that Ukraine was smart to make the mineral deal and give Trump a small victory. It seems that and the sidebar meeting at the popes funeral have swayed the current admin to favor Ukraine.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Agreed. At first I wanted peace and for this war to end, now that we’ve tried playing nice with Putin and he refuses to play ball—it’s time to crush him. Load up the sanctions and make him feel it.

I think that Ukraine was smart to make the mineral deal and give Trump a small victory. It seems that and the sidebar meeting at the popes funeral have swayed the current admin to favor Ukraine.

Yep, the Trump admin has been all over the map, but they must have realized dealing with Putin is impossible. Glad the mineral deal finally got done as that gives the US a reason to support URK going forward.

 

[aerius]

Yeah after a show of force on victory day parade i expected a brave putin, not this one, "begging" for peace thru erdogan

Note the terms:
1) There will be no ceasefire before or during the peace talks
2) Negotiations must address the root causes of the conflict (ie. de-nazification, demilitarization, EU/NATO membership, etc.) before ceasefire talks begin

These terms are a complete non-starter for the Ukraine and its supporters, this is basically Putin pretending to be reasonable in front of his buddies after inviting them over to his victory day parade. When Ukraine rejects the talks, Putin will just go "see? we tried but they don't want peace" and continue the war as usual.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Note the terms:
1) There will be no ceasefire before or during the peace talks
2) Negotiations must address the root causes of the conflict (ie. de-nazification, demilitarization, EU/NATO membership, etc.) before ceasefire talks begin

These terms are a complete non-starter for the Ukraine and its supporters, this is basically Putin pretending to be reasonable in front of his buddies after inviting them over to his victory day parade. When Ukraine rejects the talks, Putin will just go "see? we tried but they don't want peace" and continue the war as usual.

I think you are bang on with that. However the West also knows this and will give them a reason to give more crippling sanctions.

 

[SandisLL]

They still are demanding all these 4 oblastjs in their administratiative borders etc etc.....bla bla bla bla
..as usually.

Interestingly deNazification for them means to have pro kremlin oriented lawmakers and government etc....

In 1999-2001 they had pro kremlin oriented politicians ruling ukr.
Then russia didn't had saw nezisms in ukraine at all. Ukr rulers had sent bombers and long range stratrgic cruise missiles to russia....these with approx 2500 km range ....
Even 2001 th Ukr had conducted joint exercises how to fight / defend vs bad west....together with russia...yup.
Most famous from these exercises was 2001 th air defense exercises and de Nazification of Siberia Airlines passenger plane.

Then Kremlin didn't had told that Ukr needs deNazification, deMilitarized.

 

[Rholk]

If anyone is wondering what the "second military in the world" has come down to, there's a horrible video going around right now that reveals their barbaric nature.

Not going to share it here, but its on the combatfootage reddit amongst others.

A Russian commander with the call sign "Kama" ordered two deserters sitting in a pit to beat each other to death with their bare hands - whoever remained alive would come out of the pit.

Mind you, these are 2 russian citizens.

 

[Cid]

 

[San Marino]

Note the terms:
1) There will be no ceasefire before or during the peace talks
2) Negotiations must address the root causes of the conflict (ie. de-nazification, demilitarization, EU/NATO membership, etc.) before ceasefire talks begin

These terms are a complete non-starter for the Ukraine and its supporters, this is basically Putin pretending to be reasonable in front of his buddies after inviting them over to his victory day parade. When Ukraine rejects the talks, Putin will just go "see? we tried but they don't want peace" and continue the war as usual.

Putin is attempting to manipulate ongoing discussions about a ceasefire and future peace in Ukraine, likely in an effort to undermine Ukrainian-US-European unity around a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.

Kremlin officials have recently intensified their engagement with Western media in an effort to message directly to the Trump administration and American public and portray Russia's terms for Ukraine's surrender as reasonable. Putin's May 11 press conference and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's recent interviews with Western media are part of an attempt to inject Kremlin narratives into the Western information space aimed at convincing the West that Russia is able to conquer all of Ukraine militarily (?) and scaring Ukraine and the West into conceding to Russia's demands. Putin's rhetorical posturing is an attempt to conceal limitations in the Russian military's capabilities and distract from Russia's failure to make any significant progress on the battlefield over the last two years (?). Putin and other Kremlin officials firmly maintain their war aims that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation and have thus far refused to consider any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia's demands. The Kremlin is falsely portraying itself as willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine while continuing to attack frontline Ukrainian positions and setting conditions for further military aggression against Ukraine and NATO in the coming years.

* ISW, 11 May 2025

 

[San Marino]

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* The only true way to verify it is going through the schoolhouse.

 

[Badr Hari]

 

[Strychnine]

Hey @Strychnine, I don't have an issue with your credentials and background. I believe your paperwork is real but just wanted to show you and others how easy it is to get a fake military diploma. Same for a Ranger School diploma:
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* The only true way to verify it is going through the schoolhouse.

When it comes professionally framed with a handwritten note on it that says my @ handle and a message to the forum, I'll be concerned.

 

[phoenixikki]

I haven't checked the news lately, so is Ukraine still winning?

 

[syct23]

I haven't checked the news lately, so is Ukraine still winning?

Yup,

They lost Kyiv years ago..

 

[Rholk]

 

[Strychnine]

Why so slow, Russia?

Also in the vid, Ukrainian nurse wipes out Russian unit with grenade strike.

 

[SandisLL]

Putin is confident that he will be able to occupy all Kherson, Zaporozia and Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts in their administrative borders, most likely also to capture some land in other oblastjs....and west as had been proved earlier, will appease him and he will keep all captured lands.....till next war in Ukraine ofc....

Putin is confident that Belarus, Iran and North Korea will continue support and even increase. While west as usually will supply ukr a bit something etc and as usually will hope that Putin will remain in power in Russia...they loves Putin and does have fear that next ruler maybe will be more crazy than Putin.

So why reason not to continue war? Maybe some short ceasefires in order to prepare for next pressure cycles in order to take more land.

They already managed to turn Ukr into....coal importer country...

 

[SandisLL]

BTW, soon will be 2 nd cycle for presidental elections in Romania and presidental elections in Poland.

Ofc trolls and propagandists are working 24/7 ....

Putin already does have Fico, Vuchic and Orban .............
Now their hope is for elections in Poland and Romania ________________

 

[SandisLL]

" europen countries should spend 0 cent for Ukraine. " fico.

 

[San Marino]

Putin is confident that he will be able to occupy all Kherson, Zaporozia and Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts in their administrative borders, most likely also to capture some land in other oblastjs....and west as had been proved earlier, will appease him and he will keep all captured lands.

Indeed. Russia has roughly 70% of those oblasts occupied. Ukraine has not been able to recover 1% of any of them.
Putin's aim is to have a 100% capture and then move on to the next 4: Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv.
That would make up 'Novorossiya.' So, Trump failed with the hostages in Israel and putting an end to the war in Ukraine.
There is not going to be any peace agreement. The US and Europe are not going to make any changes to this conflict. Russia is waiting for Ukraine to burn up its Army for the conflict to end. Ukraine will be lucky to keep 50% of its country when it is all said and done.

Putin is confident that Belarus, Iran and North Korea will continue support and even increase.

...and China.

Again:
"As of right now, Ukraine still holds cards at the negotiating table. Its army is still in the field, contesting every meter of ground. But time is running out for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has significant problems with manpower. The balance of power is shifting in Russia’s favor, and at some point, Ukrainians will start facing the collapse of the front. This outcome is more likely given the negative trend in decision making by Ukrainian political leadership. Unless they begin to conserve combat power, collapse is growing more likely. Ukraine needs a ceasefire now to gain breathing room for restoring its combat power and improving its standing at the peace negotiations."

* This is no longer the Ukrainian Army of 2022. Ukraine will never go back to having an Army of that size. About 45% has been destroyed by the Russians at a very high cost to the Russian Army, but Russia has an endless supply of men. Russia is fielding the equivalent of two new divisions a month.