New letter from Strelkov:
IGOR STRELKOV /letter fragment/
Of course, I was extremely worried about the news about the events of the first half of January, which I received on the 15th-16th (before that, there had been no mail for over two weeks). On the one hand, nothing unexpected happened - all the actions of recent "partners" and "friends" were predicted in advance. On the other hand, it is one thing to talk about the inevitability of a "volcanic eruption", and quite another to "get caught in it"... Analytical "foresight" is of little help here if there are no means to respond correctly and promptly to the "elements" (and I have not had and do not have anything like that, unfortunately).
So, on the main news:
- I consider the most important news to be that China has shown its readiness to comply with US sanctions against our tanker fleet (blocking 5 tankers with Russian oil in Chinese territorial waters). The fact that the Celestial Empire is far from supporting the Russian Federation in the current SMO and (at best) was ready to “benevolently tolerate” all the inconveniences associated with it for some time has been clear to me for a long time. It has also been clear for a long time that “China’s patience” in connection with the said inconveniences is either running out or has expired completely: the SMO has been going on for almost three years, and Russia’s victory (and the end of the military conflict on terms that suit Moscow) is not even on the horizon. Accordingly, Beijing is demonstrating its irritation and “transparently hinting” to Moscow that “it’s time to end it on any terms, otherwise…” How to “get out” of this wonderful situation (having only North Korea as an ally) is not clear to me. Especially considering that society is not mobilized “at all,” and is already very tired of the war and does not feel any enthusiasm for its further continuation. However, Moscow is somehow unable to leave the SMO "under any conditions" (as they already tried to do in 2022 during the so-called "Istanbul agreements"). - I think I wrote somewhere before that the situation is almost like the joke about the hunter who climbed into the bear's den: - "Kum! I caught a bear here!" - "Then drag him here!" - "I can't - he's holding me!" Kyiv will not go under "Russian conditions" (i.e. the separation from "Ukraine" of not only Crimea and Donbass, but also Zaporozhye and Kherson) now (while its front is generally strong). It is even doubtful that it will "agree to the loss" of Donbass and Crimea. But how - even if Zelensky (suddenly) agrees to "bargain" - how to "foist" on the Russians the return of the so-called "Ukraine" of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, already constitutionally annexed to the Russian Federation - I can't imagine. No, of course, with certain propaganda efforts, the majority (under the slogan "as long as there is no war") will "swallow" this too, but two problems remain: 1) How will the army react to this? 2) (This is most important) Who will guarantee that - having occupied the south of the said regions, the "Kyiv partners" will not immediately "spit" on these very guarantees? - Personally, I believe that this is the only way it will be and, as they say, "further everywhere". The worst thing for "conditional Moscow" is for the population not to understand (in the indicated scenario) that: a) we lost the war; b) the war, although lost, is not over "not even once". And so, in all likelihood, it will be, if we do not radically change our own (I emphasize) attitude to this very SMO and the confrontation with NATO / USA / the West as a whole. In general, sitting in the Penal Colony, it would be difficult for me to give any recommendations on how to “return the favor of the Celestial Empire” - to develop such recommendations, I need a deep and comprehensive immersion in the history and practice of interstate relations for about 15 years (and this is the “very minimum”). Unfortunately, no one will give me such an opportunity in the near future. And without further at least “friendly neutrality” of China, the continuation of large-scale military actions seems very problematic to me. Well, unless we undertake (suddenly - with a delay of 3 years) sharp, fast and (most importantly) successful “super-efforts”. Which the Kremlin categorically did not want to undertake for the past 10 years.
To be Continued...
