International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

Badr Hari said:
New letter from Strelkov:

IGOR STRELKOV /letter fragment/
Of course, I was extremely worried about the news about the events of the first half of January, which I received on the 15th-16th (before that, there had been no mail for over two weeks). On the one hand, nothing unexpected happened - all the actions of recent "partners" and "friends" were predicted in advance. On the other hand, it is one thing to talk about the inevitability of a "volcanic eruption", and quite another to "get caught in it"... Analytical "foresight" is of little help here if there are no means to respond correctly and promptly to the "elements" (and I have not had and do not have anything like that, unfortunately).
So, on the main news:
- I consider the most important news to be that China has shown its readiness to comply with US sanctions against our tanker fleet (blocking 5 tankers with Russian oil in Chinese territorial waters). The fact that the Celestial Empire is far from supporting the Russian Federation in the current SMO and (at best) was ready to “benevolently tolerate” all the inconveniences associated with it for some time has been clear to me for a long time. It has also been clear for a long time that “China’s patience” in connection with the said inconveniences is either running out or has expired completely: the SMO has been going on for almost three years, and Russia’s victory (and the end of the military conflict on terms that suit Moscow) is not even on the horizon. Accordingly, Beijing is demonstrating its irritation and “transparently hinting” to Moscow that “it’s time to end it on any terms, otherwise…” How to “get out” of this wonderful situation (having only North Korea as an ally) is not clear to me. Especially considering that society is not mobilized “at all,” and is already very tired of the war and does not feel any enthusiasm for its further continuation. However, Moscow is somehow unable to leave the SMO "under any conditions" (as they already tried to do in 2022 during the so-called "Istanbul agreements"). - I think I wrote somewhere before that the situation is almost like the joke about the hunter who climbed into the bear's den: - "Kum! I caught a bear here!" - "Then drag him here!" - "I can't - he's holding me!" Kyiv will not go under "Russian conditions" (i.e. the separation from "Ukraine" of not only Crimea and Donbass, but also Zaporozhye and Kherson) now (while its front is generally strong). It is even doubtful that it will "agree to the loss" of Donbass and Crimea. But how - even if Zelensky (suddenly) agrees to "bargain" - how to "foist" on the Russians the return of the so-called "Ukraine" of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, already constitutionally annexed to the Russian Federation - I can't imagine. No, of course, with certain propaganda efforts, the majority (under the slogan "as long as there is no war") will "swallow" this too, but two problems remain: 1) How will the army react to this? 2) (This is most important) Who will guarantee that - having occupied the south of the said regions, the "Kyiv partners" will not immediately "spit" on these very guarantees? - Personally, I believe that this is the only way it will be and, as they say, "further everywhere". The worst thing for "conditional Moscow" is for the population not to understand (in the indicated scenario) that: a) we lost the war; b) the war, although lost, is not over "not even once". And so, in all likelihood, it will be, if we do not radically change our own (I emphasize) attitude to this very SMO and the confrontation with NATO / USA / the West as a whole. In general, sitting in the Penal Colony, it would be difficult for me to give any recommendations on how to “return the favor of the Celestial Empire” - to develop such recommendations, I need a deep and comprehensive immersion in the history and practice of interstate relations for about 15 years (and this is the “very minimum”). Unfortunately, no one will give me such an opportunity in the near future. And without further at least “friendly neutrality” of China, the continuation of large-scale military actions seems very problematic to me. Well, unless we undertake (suddenly - with a delay of 3 years) sharp, fast and (most importantly) successful “super-efforts”. Which the Kremlin categorically did not want to undertake for the past 10 years.

To be Continued...
Click to expand...

B02214-DB-6-B5-B-4-E61-87-E0-6-D5359117901[1].png
 
SandisLL said:
No.
If Putin managed to press ukr government run away or recognize de iure that Crimea is part of Russian Federation....then if this happened in March 2022 th they had all sanctions remowed ! and might had keep seperatists in dumbass as proxy area....

Later ofc now better for russia will be to take all most important mining regions. More stuff to sell for China etc...weaker Ukraine ofc.

About EU and NATO he knew that there were not realistic chances Ukr to get IN...nor 2022 nor 2023 nor 2024 ....

So if Putin wanted ukr just prevent to join nato or eu, he easily might had just to wait till next elections in Ukr....
Due to reality that Ukr always had elected populists, who had promised more, had get win and Putin just should had then put $ on the table....

Cos we knew that all supposed militarization in Ukr was empty talks with actual de militarization continued in row 32 years with vigor.....despite empty PR talks...
Also " reforms " on paper ofc....
We were not idiots like ukr or russia might dream about.
Click to expand...
The take I have following the news since the Orange Revolution is that Putin did take that tact but these new problems occurred when his backed candidate won the election and tried to distance Ukraine from ties with the EU to join Russia's own economic union. That set off the Maidan Revolution and compelled Russia to just annex Crimea and supply the proxy war in Donbas.

That still left them without direct land access to Crimea and cost them Obama's, let's say milder, sanctions. Milder but no doubt still stinging sanctions with no real way for them to gain International recognition of those territories. This invasion seems to me like a gamble they took under the assumption that Ukraine's military would crumble under their blitzkrieg attack. They'd make another land grab to link Donbas to Crimea and install a new government that would make a deal for them to keep that territory, and International recognition, in exchange for peace.

At the time most people thought Ukraine's leadership would fall within a couple of weeks so that they're still in power and fighting back to the extent that they hold Russian territory and are making direct strikes in Russia is a shock. It also makes a deal where Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas unlikely in my opinion. Maybe they make a deal to keep Crimea but Ukraine will have to lose all International support before the idea of Russia keeping all the land they've annexed so far palatable.
 
One form last technical idiotisms from trolls I last time had to read was...
" you can't refine sweet crude oil in refinery made for heavy crude oil ".
While opposite is correct, this claim is ridiculous...

Cos in refinery designed to reprocess heavy crude oil is possible to reprocess sweet crude oil, just by reconfiguring stages...and then with lesser expenses might be reprocessed sweet crude oil.

Also any refinery usable to reprocess Ural mark crude oil easy peasy might reprocess Brent or WTI mark crude oil + with lesser expenses for de sulfurization... lesser columns in stages for desulfurization.
 
LangfordBarrow said:
The take I have following the news since the Orange Revolution is that Putin did take that tact but these new problems occurred when his backed candidate won the election and tried to distance Ukraine from ties with the EU to join Russia's own economic union. That set off the Maidan Revolution and compelled Russia to just annex Crimea and supply the proxy war in Donbas.

That still left them without direct land access to Crimea and cost them Obama's, let's say milder, sanctions. Milder but no doubt still stinging sanctions with no real way for them to gain International recognition of those territories. This invasion seems to me like a gamble they took under the assumption that Ukraine's military would crumble under their blitzkrieg attack. They'd make another land grab to link Donbas to Crimea and install a new government that would make a deal for them to keep that territory, and International recognition, in exchange for peace.

At the time most people thought Ukraine's leadership would fall within a couple of weeks so that they're still in power and fighting back to the extent that they hold Russian territory and are making direct strikes in Russia is a shock. It also makes a deal where Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas unlikely in my opinion. Maybe they make a deal to keep Crimea but Ukraine will have to lose all International support before the idea of Russia keeping all the land they've annexed so far palatable.
Click to expand...
Yanukovoch was oligarch who had get personal zoo park when was president.

Poroshenko: oligarch who wanted trade with everyone and milk more ....not likely he wanted EU or NATO at all.
6
 
LangfordBarrow said:
The take I have following the news since the Orange Revolution is that Putin did take that tact but these new problems occurred when his backed candidate won the election and tried to distance Ukraine from ties with the EU to join Russia's own economic union. That set off the Maidan Revolution and compelled Russia to just annex Crimea and supply the proxy war in Donbas.

That still left them without direct land access to Crimea and cost them Obama's, let's say milder, sanctions. Milder but no doubt still stinging sanctions with no real way for them to gain International recognition of those territories. This invasion seems to me like a gamble they took under the assumption that Ukraine's military would crumble under their blitzkrieg attack. They'd make another land grab to link Donbas to Crimea and install a new government that would make a deal for them to keep that territory, and International recognition, in exchange for peace.

At the time most people thought Ukraine's leadership would fall within a couple of weeks so that they're still in power and fighting back to the extent that they hold Russian territory and are making direct strikes in Russia is a shock. It also makes a deal where Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas unlikely in my opinion. Maybe they make a deal to keep Crimea but Ukraine will have to lose all International support before the idea of Russia keeping all the land they've annexed so far palatable.
Click to expand...
Most likely west as I had posted year and a bit more lomg time ago will allow him to control Donetsk and Luhansk oblastjs...
Now maybe also Kherson and Zaporozia oblastj.

West is supporting a little bit when noise from russia too loud ...otherwise they don't care much at all.
 
The Trump administration has suspended foreign aid to Ukraine and other nations for 90 days as part of a broader review of U.S. foreign assistance. It has also refused to get involved in the rebuilding of Ukraine after the war is over. Well, I think this will move this conflict closer to an end.
 
According to this video from the UK, Russia seems to currently be winning the conflict in Ukraine though at a casualty rate of between 1,000 to 2,000 soldiers a day. Somehow Russia manages to replace those losses. More North Korean soldiers and military equipment on the way.


1737838008422.png
 
Last edited:
Now I have no doubts that Spinmarino is chatbot not a human.
Chatbot even didn't had bothered to read what stuff pump had suspended, what kind of stuff it is etc.

Not alone he isn't taught to have memory and know what stuff about ukr reconstruction countries politicians had said earlier etc. For him it is like denys awesome news.
 
San Marino said:
The Trump administration has suspended foreign aid to Ukraine and other nations for 90 days as part of a broader review of U.S. foreign assistance. It has also refused to get involved in the rebuilding of Ukraine after the war is over. Well, I think this will move this conflict closer to an end.
Click to expand...



Nice try with the blatantly false propaganda.




But, hey! You've earned your vodka ration for this month comrade! :)
 
Pump didn't had suspended weapons deliveries.

Suspended are other programs, like some humanitarian projects and money transfers...


Spinmarino is earning for a living in puffy cubicle...by tolling for troll and chatbots farm....

Doesn't makes sense these villages.
Blind biorobot. I had posted 2 years ago that part of ukr will get russia, other part will live in dreams and debts.

Thus far looks like had been predicted. And nope, it isn't proxy war...just friends are yelling too much, then a bit help for ukr, nothing special.
 
Btw Why is the forum not getting back to normal this rebuilding took way too long?
 
Continuation of the letter from Strelkov which I posted above... im posting it only for a few posters here which listened to Strelkov during 2022 and even before the full scale invasion...

Will "crawling to Beijing on my knees and back" with the purpose of "begging to wait a little longer" have any effect - I honestly don't know - I'm not competent enough. Although I would probably "humble my pride and crawl - not for the sake of vanity, but for Russia."
Very briefly - the situation at the front:
Our purely tactical successes (important only on the scale of Donbass, and not on the scale of the strategic goals of the SMO) are NOT MORE THAN UNPLEASANT for the enemy: "Have they surrendered Kurakhovo and Toretsk? - so what... Will they surrender Pokrovsk / Krasnoarmeysk? - Also, as they say, "not a great loss." - For the Ukrainian Armed Forces to begin to fall apart and "open the front" - these are not even prerequisites. The enemy's slow and organized retreat in the south of the DPR only shortens the front line, and is very "expensive" (for our troops). At this rate, we can "crawl" "to the Dnieper" for another 5-10 years. What am I getting at? - To the fact that the enemy does not consider these territorial losses as something "irreparably important". He continues to "exchange territory for time" in Donbass, implementing the enemy's strategy of "wearing down Russia", drawn up for Kyiv from NATO headquarters. In the areas that are truly important for the enemy (Kharkov, Kursk, etc.), the Ukrainian Armed Forces are "hanging on by the skin of their teeth" and our offensive there is not even "crawling", but frankly "stalling". At the same time, we (with the persistence of clinical idiots) continue to "grind down in meaty assaults" those who are still (by the end of the 3rd year of the war!) still capable of moving forward in them and even winning at the cost of their lives (at least - health). But this resource is not infinite! Instead of “spending” it for a real breakthrough/breakthroughs of the enemy front with strategic goals, we generously “flood with blood” patches of land, “unknown heights”, forest belts and villages in areas that are strictly secondary even for the enemy. And at the same time, he is accumulating his new strategic reserves for the spring…
 
Ruthless Ryan said:
You BS more then paid Russian propagandists do. Your hero Trump is going to be the one that buries Putin more then Putin is burying himself.
Click to expand...
What's the matter? Can't accept what various sources say about Russian GDP? Is this the best you can do?
 
Strychnine said:
Nice try with the blatantly false propaganda.

But, hey! You've earned your vodka ration for this month comrade! :)
Click to expand...
Yeah, that is a clarification. Even your own source admits that he understood that aid was halted to Ukraine, Jordan and Taiwan, but not Israel and Egypt.
No, it is not false propaganda. The initial source provided said just that - aid for Ukraine will be halted for 90 days. That is how everyone, including your source, understood the statement. The Pentagon had to get involve and update the initial statement. The one you posted. It does not matter either way, it will not make a difference in Ukraine defeating the Russians at this point and time. Too little too late.

24 January 2025
Trump's executive order to suspend US foreign aid will not affect arms supplies to Ukraine, Pentagon says

Loading…

news.am
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,262,809
Messages
57,186,907
Members
175,574
Latest member
nicos18

Share this page

Back
Top