International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Rholk]

That makes sense, but this is a land war and I don’t think Russia is launching attacks from the sea?

This has become a land/air war.
Russia was actually attempting to blockade Ukr ports up until their fleet was hit (very) hard repeatedly.

That and Crimea is also a bit of a bitch to keep properly supplied (not just militarily).
So striking logistical infrastructure in it (made possible/easier by taking out AA) creates alot of strain on the Russian side.

 

[Orgasmo]

Sacrificing combat troops for PR to a western audience which is largely uninterested seems wasteful

No Western support = Ukraine collapses

Like I said, Ukraine's grand strategy involves keeping Western support up, even if they have to resort to some PR stunts like the Krynki landing. It's unfortunate, but neccessary.

 

[Boxiana]

This has become a land/air war.
Russia was actually attempting to blockade Ukr ports up until their fleet was hit (very) hard repeatedly.

That and Crimea is also a bit of a bitch to keep properly supplied (not just militarily).
So striking logistical infrastructure in it (made possible/easier by taking out AA) creates alot of strain on the Russian side.

First point - I understand it’s a mutual stand off - Russia stops attacking the ports (which supplies Russian allies with much needed grain) and Ukraine stops targeting their fleet

Second - there is a land bridge and rail line to mainland Russia, so that doesn’t make sense to me. No way they have the capabilities or manpower to take Crimea at this time.

 

[Boxiana]

No Western support = Ukraine collapses

Like I said, Ukraine's grand strategy involves keeping Western support up, even if they have to resort to some PR stunts like the Krynki landing. It's unfortunate, but neccessary.

I agree about the support, but apparent stunts like this makes no difference to it, whilst conceivably being demoralizing for the Ukrainian military.

 

[Orgasmo]

I agree about the support, but apparent stunts like this makes no difference to it, whilst conceivably being demoralizing for the Ukrainian military.

I would argue that it does make a difference. It made the news didn't it? Now Ukraine can claim it is still going on the offensive, instead of losing one village after another.

A lot of things Ukraine does is for PR for its western backers, although I agree that ultimately it hurts them in the field.

Even David Axe is calling Ukraine out on this, and he's one of the biggest cheerleader for Ukraine since day 1 of this war:

Pro-Ukrainian Russian Troops Launched A Pointless Invasion Of Russia

Who authorized the Liberty of Russia Legion’s wasteful cross-border attack?

www.forbes.com

"Five months after launching a short-lived raid across Ukraine’s northern border with Russia into the Russian border town of Tetkino, the Liberty of Russia Legion—Russians who fight for Ukraine—is at it again.

On Tuesday, legionnaires in American-made Stryker armored vehicles raced across the border into the town of Sudzha, 35 miles east of Tetkino. The pro-Ukrainian Russians swiftly knocked out a couple of T-62 tanks, took a few prisoners and shot down a Russian air force Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopter, reportedly killing its crew.

It’s all very dramatic—and also a shameful waste of precious military resources. At the same time, the Liberty of Russia Legion was mucking around in Sudzha, a town with practically no military value, and over-stretched Ukrainian brigades were retreating from Niu-York, a former Ukrainian stronghold just west of Horlivka in eastern Ukraine."

 

[Rholk]

First point - I understand it’s a mutual stand off - Russia stops attacking the ports (which supplies Russian allies with much needed grain) and Ukraine stops targeting their fleet

Second - there is a land bridge and rail line to mainland Russia, so that doesn’t make sense to me. No way they have the capabilities or manpower to take Crimea at this time.

Oh no, they almost certainly will not be able to take Crimea back.
But the point of these attacks is aimed at making Crimea a big logistical burden for Russia.
At that they're certainly succeeding.

 

[Orgasmo]

Oh no, they almost certainly will not be able to take Crimea back.
But the point of these attacks is aimed at making Crimea a big logistical burden for Russia.
At that they're certainly succeeding.

My guess is the war might actually conclude by end of the year. Russia doesn't have the manpower and equipment to mount theatre level offensives required to take big cities (Sumy, Kharkiv). Ukraine doesn't have the manpower and equipment to take by lost territories. Zelensky already signaled a few days earlier that he is opened to negotiations with Russia and talked about the possibility of a referendum on ceding territory.

Calling it now. Russia keeps Crimea and gets the rest of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, but they won't be able to take everything east of Dnieper river and Odessa.

 

[GhostZ06]

That makes sense, but this is a land war and I don’t think Russia is launching attacks from the sea?

yeah but imagine having no Russian ships in the black sea...

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

My guess is the war might actually conclude by end of the year. Russia doesn't have the manpower and equipment to mount theatre level offensives required to take big cities (Sumy, Kharkiv). Ukraine doesn't have the manpower and equipment to take by lost territories. Zelensky already signaled a few days earlier that he is opened to negotiations with Russia and talked about the possibility of a referendum on ceding territory.

Calling it now. Russia keeps Crimea and gets the rest of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, but they won't be able to take everything east of Dnieper river and Odessa.

Not even a maybe. You clearly want to believe everything positive for Russia but no way UKR gives up all that especially while still under control of some of it. UKR wont take the land back militarily anytime soon as it's not worth the cost but the walls are closing in on Russia in many other different ways that will cause them to lose war. They really cant sustain the loses and cost of this war to gain destroyed villages and farm fields.

 

[Orgasmo]

Not even a maybe. You clearly want to believe everything positive for Russia but no way UKR gives up all that especially while still under control of some of it. UKR wont take the land back militarily anytime soon as it's not worth the cost but the walls are closing in on Russia in many other different ways that will cause them to lose war. They really cant sustain the loses and cost of this war to gain destroyed villages and farm fields.

Everything positive for Russia? Every source I posted to back my arguments so far is from either Ukraine or the West. Ukraine is literally kidnapping men off the streets just to fill its ranks. Manpower will become its biggest issue in the coming months. While the frontline may cede slowly, Ukraine can't keep this up.

The front between USSR and Germany moved very little between 1942 and 1943, then Germans collapsed in 1944 and folded.

 

[Cid]

Unless Ukraine is considering retaking Crimea (which seems unlikely), wouldn’t these munitions and effort be better served in arresting Russian advances in the ground war to the East?

Interested in your thoughts.

ATACMS are long range for high value targets. If there's a high value target deep in the east that only ATACMS can hit they'll use it.

Shorter range less expensive munitions like 105,155, GMLRS are front line weapons for advances.

ATACMS basically looking for anything more expensive than it or large clustered groups who thought they were far enough from the front to get away with it.

 

[Cid]

Not even a maybe. You clearly want to believe everything positive for Russia but no way UKR gives up all that especially while still under control of some of it. UKR wont take the land back militarily anytime soon as it's not worth the cost but the walls are closing in on Russia in many other different ways that will cause them to lose war. They really cant sustain the loses and cost of this war to gain destroyed villages and farm fields.

No no no.

Ukraine has so few men that Russia's fearsome scooter brigades are going to break through any month now.

Dragoons were replaced with bicycle infantry in the 19th century and I feel that the humble scooter is about to revolutionize warfare.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Everything positive for Russia? Every source I posted to back my arguments so far is from either Ukraine or the West. Ukraine is literally kidnapping men off the streets just to fill its ranks. Manpower will become its biggest issue in the coming months. While the frontline may cede slowly, Ukraine can't keep this up.

The front between USSR and Germany moved very little between 1942 and 1943, then Germans collapsed in 1944 and folded.

UKR does have a man power shortage but at the same time they arnt doing meat wave assaults like Russia is continuing to do. Russia doesnt have the available meat they did 80myrs ago and thats why they are going after poor countries and now started trying to recruit even in Moscow and St Petersburg as the man power is drying up with low unemployment due to the war economy....which will implode before UKR surrenders.

We also had a fellow Russian supporter who said UKR was out of men about a year ago and that history always repeats itself 100%....he was wrong and went the way of the dodo bird.

 

[Cid]

Ukraine strikes oil refineries 2000km (1250 freedom units) deep into Russia.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

No no no.

Ukraine has so few men that Russia's fearsome scooter brigades are going to break through any month now.

Dragoons were replaced with bicycle infantry in the 19th century and I feel that the humble scooter is about to revolutionize warfare.

UKR was down to girl guides and senior citizens a year ago but can still hold off the skateboard and roller skate attacks....

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Ukraine strikes oil refineries 2000km (1250 freedom units) deep into Russia.

Wow , that's crazy another reason why UKR doesnt have to surrender. They can keep ths up and take money away from the war machine one depot at a time. And unlike WW2 where they had lend/lease from the states to help them now they dont big difference , but I'm sure NK and Iran are doing their part.

 

[ferrisjso]

yeah but imagine having no Russian ships in the black sea...

How does that change this war?

Like pro Ukranians can all circle jerk about the destruction of the Black Sea fleet. How does this acheive any tangible military goals for your side? Like when terms are reached will the Russians be giving the Ukranians points for taking out the Black Sea fleet? No. It provides no leverage of any kind. Its just military porn.

 

[Orgasmo]

UKR does have a man power shortage but at the same time they arnt doing meat wave assaults like Russia is continuing to do. Russia doesnt have the available meat they did 80myrs ago and thats why they are going after poor countries and now started trying to recruit even in Moscow and St Petersburg as the man power is drying up with low unemployment due to the war economy....which will implode before UKR surrenders.

We also had a fellow Russian supporter who said UKR was out of men about a year ago and that history always repeats itself 100%....he was wrong and went the way of the dodo bird.

Russia has 5 times more artillery, tanks and 7 times the drones, in case you're talking about "meat assaults". The side with fire superiority takes fewer casualties as a rule of thumb, not the 3:1 ratio Ukraine is claiming. If it was as simple as the side on offensive taking more casualty, then Japan wouldn't have lost the Pacific island battles against the Americans.

Ukraine will lose the attritional warfare, plain and simple. Its lines are already being breached in multiple points and they've lost more territories to Russia in the last month than they've gained in their 2023 Summer Offensive.

 

[Cid]

Wow , that's crazy another reason why UKR doesnt have to surrender. They can keep ths up and take money away from the war machine one depot at a time. And unlike WW2 where they had lend/lease from the states to help them now they dont big difference , but I'm sure NK and Iran are doing their part.

According to Forbes they're launching more long range drones than Russia already.

Ukraine launched over 520 long range drones in July.
Russia launched 426.

Ukraine Launched More Long-Range Attack Drones Than Russia In July

For the first time Ukraine's total for long-range attack drones exceeded Russia's. Production is ramping up and as Ukraine hits Russian oil refineries and air bases.

www.forbes.com

Russia still got long range missile so it's not the full story of the deep strike war but it is slowly turning.

No way in hell that there were more successful Shaheed strikes than Liutyi.

 

[AWilder]

Unless Ukraine is considering retaking Crimea (which seems unlikely), wouldn’t these munitions and effort be better served in arresting Russian advances in the ground war to the East?

Interested in your thoughts.

Crimea is a major supply route for the southern front. Keeping it suppressed and vulnerable makes it harder for Russians on the front.