International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

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ViD said:
What does it even mean ? Non combat troops ? They will send police officers to keep Kiev in check ?

If he means air defense system operators or instructors from NATO countries, they have been in Ukraine for a long time now
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- No combative security guards? To work as a bullet-magnet?
 
Strychnine said:
SHIIIIIIIIII..... o_O

Those guys made a one-way trip into the meat grinder! :eek:
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Thing I worry about is there is talk about someone going out and buying Reddit for around 10 to 15 billion dollars. I worry they will go the way of Twitter/X with Elon type "Highly paid Saudi troll" to completely F up war coverage.
 
aerius said:
means any country which doesn't like what the US and its allies are doing can now seize any of our assets that they can get their hands on.
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They already do.

There's a good chance it kills the USD as the international currency of trade, and if that happens the US gets to choose between hyperinflation or defaulting on its debt. You really want to go there?
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And put your money where? China where the government there will surely never confiscate any asset whatsoever if you run afoul of the government?
 
aerius said:
Do you understand the precedent that it sets for international trade & finance? Because that means any country which doesn't like what the US and its allies are doing can now seize any of our assets that they can get their hands on. There's a good chance it kills the USD as the international currency of trade, and if that happens the US gets to choose between hyperinflation or defaulting on its debt. You really want to go there?
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So, the only thing stopping Russia from taking more is that "Well, no one else has done it yet."?!?
 
Strychnine said:
So, the only thing stopping Russia from taking more is that "Well, no one else has done it yet."?!?
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Not just Russia. China, India, and the rest of the BRICS nations, which, by the way, are a larger share of the world's population & GDP than the US and its allies. Wanna see what happens when China demands payment for its goods in Yuan?
 
aerius said:
Not just Russia. China, India, and the rest of the BRICS nations, which, by the way, are a larger share of the world's population & GDP than the US and its allies. Wanna see what happens when China demands payment for its goods in Yuan?
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You REALLY wanna go down that road with me?

Trust me.. You ain't ready.
 
Last 24 hours

- Ukraine claims to have shot down 3X Su-34.
- Russia claims to have shot down a Ukrainian Su-24.
- Ukrainian counterattack pushed Russians out of Robotyne after Russians captured about 40% of the town.
- Russians captured half of the Novomykhailivka village near Donesk.
- Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade (Azov) pushed Russians out of Krasnohorivka
- Audio recording of a Germany military meeting was leaked, with Germans talking about how to destroy the Kerch bridge in Crimea.
- Su-57 reported to have been used to strike ground target for the first time.
- Photos emerged of a failed Ukrainian special forces raid in Kherson with multiple casualties
 
Strychnine said:
You REALLY wanna go down that road with me?

Trust me.. You ain't ready.
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Let me put it this way. Don't even bother unless you can give an explanation of how the US uses international trade in USD to export most of its inflation to other nations.
 
aerius said:
Let me put it this way. Don't even bother unless you can give an explanation of how the US uses international trade in USD to export most of its inflation to other nations.
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Too easy.

Stability. The USD is one thing.

STABLE. You put your money in USD, it will retain value, period. The USD, doesn't falter, doesn't fail, doesn't waver. It is the standard.

In the realm of international trade, the United States wields a unique advantage: nearly all of its imports are invoiced in U.S. dollars. This phenomenon grants the U.S. a status of “privileged insularity”. But how does this translate into exporting inflation?

Here’s the mechanism: When the U.S. dollar is strong, it acts as a conduit to “export inflation” to the rest of the global economy. Let me break it down:

  1. Currency Movements: The dollar’s strength significantly impacts global markets. Firms in countries with actively traded currencies often issue more than a sixth of their debt in U.S. dollars, even without any sales in the United States. A robust dollar directly affects the debt-servicing costs for these companies, especially when global financial conditions tighten, and interest rates rise.
  2. Emerging Markets: While emerging markets are often vulnerable when the dollar appreciates, some currencies have fared better. For instance, Brazil has reduced its dollar-denominated borrowing over time. However, the U.S. remains insulated due to its dollar-centric import structure.
  3. The Inflation Export: As the dollar strengthens, the U.S. can import goods and services at relatively low costs. Consequently, it effectively exports inflation to other nations. For example, consider a sushi meal in Japan: At the beginning of 2022, it cost an American visitor about $25. However, due to the dollar's appreciation against the Japanese Yen, the price dropped to around $20 by the end of October.
In summary, the U.S. leverages its currency dominance to subtly transmit inflationary pressures across borders, impacting economies worldwide.
 
aerius said:
Not just Russia. China, India, and the rest of the BRICS nations, which, by the way, are a larger share of the world's population & GDP than the US and its allies. Wanna see what happens when China demands payment for its goods in Yuan?
Click to expand...
China already is not only pressing down russian crude oil sales prices, also paying them in yuan.
Pakistan is pressing down crude oil prices for stuff russia is selling and unlike earlier when they paid russia in USD, now they wants to pay Russia in their own currency or yuan. PUTIN definitely is happy.
India is paying russia in rupees and pressing prices down with each deal by demanding discounts.
 
Strychnine said:
Too easy.

Stability. The USD is one thing.

STABLE. You put your money in USD, it will retain value, period. The USD, doesn't falter, doesn't fail, doesn't waver. It is the standard.

In the realm of international trade, the United States wields a unique advantage: nearly all of its imports are invoiced in U.S. dollars. This phenomenon grants the U.S. a status of “privileged insularity”. But how does this translate into exporting inflation?

Here’s the mechanism: When the U.S. dollar is strong, it acts as a conduit to “export inflation” to the rest of the global economy. Let me break it down:

  1. Currency Movements: The dollar’s strength significantly impacts global markets. Firms in countries with actively traded currencies often issue more than a sixth of their debt in U.S. dollars, even without any sales in the United States. A robust dollar directly affects the debt-servicing costs for these companies, especially when global financial conditions tighten, and interest rates rise.
  2. Emerging Markets: While emerging markets are often vulnerable when the dollar appreciates, some currencies have fared better. For instance, Brazil has reduced its dollar-denominated borrowing over time. However, the U.S. remains insulated due to its dollar-centric import structure.
  3. The Inflation Export: As the dollar strengthens, the U.S. can import goods and services at relatively low costs. Consequently, it effectively exports inflation to other nations. For example, consider a sushi meal in Japan: At the beginning of 2022, it cost an American visitor about $25. However, due to the dollar's appreciation against the Japanese Yen, the price dropped to around $20 by the end of October.
In summary, the U.S. leverages its currency dominance to subtly transmit inflationary pressures across borders, impacting economies worldwide.
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No mention of letters of credit being denominated in USD and how it affects trade
No mention of how US debt & printed dollars is sequestered by trade
No mention of USD denominated commodities and how they factor into the system

What you gave me might as well be copied off of wikipedia, it's very surface level and a good chunk of it is either wrong or irrelevant. I'm expecting differential equations along with calculations for decay rates, flow of funds, and all that other fun stuff.
 
aerius said:
No mention of letters of credit being denominated in USD and how it affects trade
No mention of how US debt & printed dollars is sequestered by trade
No mention of USD denominated commodities and how they factor into the system

What you gave me might as well be copied off of wikipedia, it's very surface level and a good chunk of it is either wrong or irrelevant. I'm expecting differential equations along with calculations for decay rates, flow of funds, and all that other fun stuff.
Click to expand...

Well, you've got the wrong guy because I'm not a financial exchange nor a geopolitical expert.




This guy, however...

Is Peter Zeihan. He briefs the C.I.A. regularly and is a geopolitical expert.
 
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