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No, not for years. To your question, because the Ukrainian Army has not reached the point of being combat ineffective. It is getting there.
International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15
- Thread starter Strychnine
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Good post.
I don't agree with everything you are saying but will address this section. Russia currently controls 20% of Ukraine. Imagine the United States having 20% of its territory controlled by Russia. Russia has destroyed 45% of the Ukrainian Army. It has kept Ukraine from joining NATO. It is adding more soldiers to the fight per month than Ukraine. Ukraine cannot sustain that for long. Russia wants eastern Ukraine and it has it. Ukraine has not moved the Russian Army back east in 3 years of war. Not 1 kilometer. Putin and Russia are well on their way of accomplishing their goals in Ukraine. The US and Europe can provide all the help they want to Ukraine but not in replenishing troops lost. A weak Ukrainian Army cannot keep defending the country without a fresh supply of thousands of new troops. Ukraine does not have that anymore. Hence going after planes, trains, and oil refineries. Secondary targets of no real value. The Russian economy is doing well and so is the Russian industrial complex. The same cannot be said of Ukraine. They have run out of steam and are getting weaker by the month.
russia obiviously had invested a lot in info campaigns and will invest even more.
In some part they are successful to brainwash lazy, not interested in technique ppl. For these might get pushed doctored pictures and videos and they will ate russian stories pretty well.
One from fake tales they are selling is that ukraine is using Patriot and SAMP-T missiles against cheap iranian drones.
Next fake tale is that they are destroying " batteries " by launching drones and forcing to switch ON for example Patriot or SAMP-T radar in order to launch anti radar missiles.
Ukr does have a lot of different radars and doesn't use stuff like S-300, Patriot or SAMP-T against slow targets, so here is not necessity to switch ON these radars when there are just motorbikes type stuff.
In some part they are successful to brainwash lazy, not interested in technique ppl. For these might get pushed doctored pictures and videos and they will ate russian stories pretty well.
One from fake tales they are selling is that ukraine is using Patriot and SAMP-T missiles against cheap iranian drones.
Next fake tale is that they are destroying " batteries " by launching drones and forcing to switch ON for example Patriot or SAMP-T radar in order to launch anti radar missiles.
Ukr does have a lot of different radars and doesn't use stuff like S-300, Patriot or SAMP-T against slow targets, so here is not necessity to switch ON these radars when there are just motorbikes type stuff.
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Hes having a little tantrum..And there you have it guys...Putin is not trying to reassemble USSR...he just wants you to do him this small favor...
Russia won't end Ukraine war until NATO scales back eastern flank: Moscow
NATO bolstered its presence in Eastern Europe in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.www.newsweek.com
partially btw ukr had contributed to create such stories cos other reasons.
Ukr is constantly blaming europe and declaring that they almost like does have debt to pay for Ukr.
While unfortunately we had to see real posted by them videos HOW they in some cases had used stuff provided by according to them bad europe.
1. Very painful episode.
Guys does have RPG 7 and 40/40 mm anti infantry grenades and other kind of grenades....
Instead to use these 40/40 " rockets " against infantry lad had used cummulative shaped charge anti tank rounds vs infantry on da Tech street.
So ofc lesser effective.
No2 in this episode was even more scary: it was easy to see that guy didn't had proper basic training how to aim RPG 7.
Battle for Severodonetsk one real episode.
I remeber this one just because lad was motivated and hardworking, didn't had fear in this episode.... damn, SOBs should had trained this guy properly, then such guy had been more usable.... it really was worth to invest more to train such lad.
Especially cos he had some talent: quickly relocated from position to next position with 0 delays before fast action. Had balls to use grenade launcher when they in this moment started to fire in his direction when he rised stuff for usage.
Normally returned from position no 3 even back to position no 1 and then qucikly disappeared somewhere and appeared in position No3 again. Good material.
2. Supplied autocannon and different models of rounds.
Guys btw most likely were nervous.
They did process properly, unlike previous episode they did all properly....exception was ....they had used anti aircraft ammo vs infantry and APCs.
Why this is important nuance: we had supplied different ammo: for aircraft, vs APC type stuff and vs infantry type stuff.
Different colour markings on ammo.
Anti arcraft ammo was lesser produced, considerably more expensive and not easy to rack up production like with other ammo models ....
Also stuff designed vs infantry or APCs IS more effective !!! for such task.
Ukr is constantly blaming europe and declaring that they almost like does have debt to pay for Ukr.
While unfortunately we had to see real posted by them videos HOW they in some cases had used stuff provided by according to them bad europe.
1. Very painful episode.
Guys does have RPG 7 and 40/40 mm anti infantry grenades and other kind of grenades....
Instead to use these 40/40 " rockets " against infantry lad had used cummulative shaped charge anti tank rounds vs infantry on da Tech street.
So ofc lesser effective.
No2 in this episode was even more scary: it was easy to see that guy didn't had proper basic training how to aim RPG 7.
Battle for Severodonetsk one real episode.
I remeber this one just because lad was motivated and hardworking, didn't had fear in this episode.... damn, SOBs should had trained this guy properly, then such guy had been more usable.... it really was worth to invest more to train such lad.
Especially cos he had some talent: quickly relocated from position to next position with 0 delays before fast action. Had balls to use grenade launcher when they in this moment started to fire in his direction when he rised stuff for usage.
Normally returned from position no 3 even back to position no 1 and then qucikly disappeared somewhere and appeared in position No3 again. Good material.
2. Supplied autocannon and different models of rounds.
Guys btw most likely were nervous.
They did process properly, unlike previous episode they did all properly....exception was ....they had used anti aircraft ammo vs infantry and APCs.
Why this is important nuance: we had supplied different ammo: for aircraft, vs APC type stuff and vs infantry type stuff.
Different colour markings on ammo.
Anti arcraft ammo was lesser produced, considerably more expensive and not easy to rack up production like with other ammo models ....
Also stuff designed vs infantry or APCs IS more effective !!! for such task.
Last info from zelonka. Looks that he is starting to taste minerals deal with U.S like Afganistan had 2017-2019. Nothing special.
Zelonka had told that in 2024 th U.S had promised him 20000 small missiles, however now Trump administration had decided to send them for middle east problems.
South Vietnam in 1970 ies and Afganistan 2017-2019 scenario for ukr looks more and more realistic future.
Zelonka had told that in 2024 th U.S had promised him 20000 small missiles, however now Trump administration had decided to send them for middle east problems.
South Vietnam in 1970 ies and Afganistan 2017-2019 scenario for ukr looks more and more realistic future.
If about ukr dreams to get financing from U.S looks that it is waste of time for dreams.
Despite prognosed huge increase in deficite and spending, Congress doesn't have scheduled financing bills to vote for any Ukr assistance bills financing.
Maybe if Ukr had minerals etc deals with Putin and Xi they had better warranties for security prospects ....real life.
Despite prognosed huge increase in deficite and spending, Congress doesn't have scheduled financing bills to vote for any Ukr assistance bills financing.
Maybe if Ukr had minerals etc deals with Putin and Xi they had better warranties for security prospects ....real life.
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Yeah I agree that is the least known factor in this war. Ukr has rightfully been more secretive in that regard, you know keeping morale up is an old and valid doctrine of war. I hope the situation is better than we suspect and they can sustain it.
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When they've just passed a bill which allows men over the age of 60 to serve, it's pretty safe to say their casualties are far worse than reported.
Ukraine’s parliament backs bill for men over 60 to serve voluntarily
Ukraine’s legislature passed in its first reading on June 4 a bill allowing men aged 60 and older to voluntarily serve in the Defense Forces under a one-year contract, MP Oleksii Honcharenko reported on Telegram.
english.nv.ua
Desertions are also going up substantially, it was 120k total at the end of 2024 and they're already up to 210k as of the end of May.
And half the army is no longer combat effective.
This is not sustainable, no one knows when Ukraine's army will finally break or simply run out of men, but it's a matter of when not if.
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When they've just passed a bill which allows men over the age of 60 to serve, it's pretty safe to say their casualties are far worse than reported.
Ukraine’s parliament backs bill for men over 60 to serve voluntarily
Ukraine’s legislature passed in its first reading on June 4 a bill allowing men aged 60 and older to voluntarily serve in the Defense Forces under a one-year contract, MP Oleksii Honcharenko reported on Telegram.
Desertions are also going up substantially, it was 120k total at the end of 2024 and they're already up to 210k as of the end of May.
And half the army is no longer combat effective.
This is not sustainable, no one knows when Ukraine's army will finally break or simply run out of men, but it's a matter of when not if.
Did you had heared stuff Abdirstanovich had told 2022 th and 2023 th?
If you had, then didn't bothered to waste time with this clown.
1. Clown had supported Zelensky 2019-2023 th.
2. Clown is dreaming that russians will forgive his talks 2019-2023 th?
3. Clown had told that russia soon will run out of missiles while I had posted that russia does have mountains with weapons. I was correct and he was wrong.
4. Clown had told: when you will see our counter offensive.... While I had posted that with supplied stuff IF lucky maybe might be enough to hold frontline and isn't enough for offensive.
I was correct and clown was wrong!
Ofc I'm not selling skazkoterapia for females 40+ lectures for a living. I don't claim to be colonel in casino basement.
Therefore despite he was wrong, clients are thinking that he is " expert "....
Stupid ukraine yet didn't had lowered conscription mobo age limit below 25 y.
Despite for example before zelonka era they in peacetime had mandatory military service for 19 y.o lads. If you get called and didn't had showed up in time, then fines and/ or criminal court! In peacetime!!!
Ukraine had mandatory military service for young guys even in peacetime! More than 130 years in row....with paragraphs in criminal codex for evasion..... courts!prison terms!
Despite for example before zelonka era they in peacetime had mandatory military service for 19 y.o lads. If you get called and didn't had showed up in time, then fines and/ or criminal court! In peacetime!!!
Ukraine had mandatory military service for young guys even in peacetime! More than 130 years in row....with paragraphs in criminal codex for evasion..... courts!prison terms!
Ofc maybe ukr wants to utilize old guys in trenches in order to save budget on pensions in future. I really will not be surprised if it is cos this.....
However there are nuances : some these 60+ y.o sometimes does have ranks, qualifications where in army is possible to get normal salary IF compare with pension they are getting. Ofc will get pension + salary.
And if they does have " connections " their buds might put them in well paid positions....
In military there are also positions in Kiev offices or basements to do paperwork.
And these retired colonels etc might get placed in these position by their buds and relatives working in high positions.
Money. Better salary plus pension rather than just pension ofc.
Plus there are jobs like conscription officers and inspectors etc stuff.
However there are nuances : some these 60+ y.o sometimes does have ranks, qualifications where in army is possible to get normal salary IF compare with pension they are getting. Ofc will get pension + salary.
And if they does have " connections " their buds might put them in well paid positions....
In military there are also positions in Kiev offices or basements to do paperwork.
And these retired colonels etc might get placed in these position by their buds and relatives working in high positions.
Money. Better salary plus pension rather than just pension ofc.
Plus there are jobs like conscription officers and inspectors etc stuff.
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Yeah I wish them the best success and hopefully they can keep up the defense.
There are also institutions like military police.
Ofc they does have guys for patrols but they also does have office perssonell. Usually better paid than guys working in patrols.
Ukr computer literacy for normal 60+ y.o isn't bad, definitely will be enough to fill formulars and standard type reports etc ...for these blanks are standard and automatic, all you should do is to enter data etc in formulars...
Ofc they does have guys for patrols but they also does have office perssonell. Usually better paid than guys working in patrols.
Ukr computer literacy for normal 60+ y.o isn't bad, definitely will be enough to fill formulars and standard type reports etc ...for these blanks are standard and automatic, all you should do is to enter data etc in formulars...
About ukr, if they will run out of air defense missiles, russia will be able to do even carpet bombing and then will not make sense number of guys they does have in trenches....
And this problem unfortunately is closer to reality than supposed shortage of manpower.
And this problem unfortunately is closer to reality than supposed shortage of manpower.
If about deserteurs, russia too does have a lot...a lot of cases aren't reported if guy had returned during some couple of days.
They also does have MIA ( missing in action etc ).
For commanders isn't comfortable to report desertion cases because then they might get bonuses and perks cut off plus does have risk to get under investigation why they doesn't maintain discipline, maybe they are internal enemies? Jesus, then they might end in FSB basement somewhere or disappear...accidents might happen etc.
They also does have MIA ( missing in action etc ).
For commanders isn't comfortable to report desertion cases because then they might get bonuses and perks cut off plus does have risk to get under investigation why they doesn't maintain discipline, maybe they are internal enemies? Jesus, then they might end in FSB basement somewhere or disappear...accidents might happen etc.
BTW term basements is cos realit.
Germany too had used basements and a lot.
First reason if they had too much prisoners and needed to lock in more prisoners ASAP.
Second reason is pretty pragmatic : prisons floors does have ofc perssonel and a lot of doors for gates etc...
Literally to move prisoners in / out of cells in order to deliver to office and back to cell isn't fast process.
While basements are considered as difficult to escape from, usually install some cells and in 24/7 mode might do investigation process. Move them to " office " in / out etc stuff.
Germany too had used basements and a lot.
First reason if they had too much prisoners and needed to lock in more prisoners ASAP.
Second reason is pretty pragmatic : prisons floors does have ofc perssonel and a lot of doors for gates etc...
Literally to move prisoners in / out of cells in order to deliver to office and back to cell isn't fast process.
While basements are considered as difficult to escape from, usually install some cells and in 24/7 mode might do investigation process. Move them to " office " in / out etc stuff.
Marianna yelled about mobilization " problems " that they does have more than 100 000 students fit for military service, ministry of defense does have at least 50000 bireucrats fit for military service and all these might be ( should had long ago ) mobilized for trenches tomorrow....
However if air defense stockpiles of missiles will deplete too much, will not make sense does ukr have 1 or maybe 1 000 000 or 10 000 000 soldiers.
Btw ukraine does have number of students increased more than they ever had....
Ofc this is cos mobilization AND ...harsh reality that with degree will be easier to find job in other countries, to get visas etc.
Ppl are planning to relocate from ukr sooner or later...
They does see mountains of private and municipal and companies and ofc gov debts growing on daily basis ....and it is easy to see future ..perspective. Someone sooner or later will be forced to pay these debts.
Ok, with refinancing maybe will pay just yearly interest rate...anyway not fun and sooner or later will start to pay also debt too.
Really " cool " future.
However if air defense stockpiles of missiles will deplete too much, will not make sense does ukr have 1 or maybe 1 000 000 or 10 000 000 soldiers.
Btw ukraine does have number of students increased more than they ever had....
Ofc this is cos mobilization AND ...harsh reality that with degree will be easier to find job in other countries, to get visas etc.
Ppl are planning to relocate from ukr sooner or later...
They does see mountains of private and municipal and companies and ofc gov debts growing on daily basis ....and it is easy to see future ..perspective. Someone sooner or later will be forced to pay these debts.
Ok, with refinancing maybe will pay just yearly interest rate...anyway not fun and sooner or later will start to pay also debt too.
Really " cool " future.
