International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Ruthless Ryan]

Seen a couple vids from Jay from Kiev and Anna from UKR both talking about the Russian banking problems. And with the price of oil being super low it must be hard for Putler to keep his war machine going with carrying his oil in old POS tankers in order to make a buck. It's going to get worse before it get's better.
Inside russia with Constatine is live now saying about 15% of all business's are nearing bankruptcy. I think the deck of cards is getting wobbly.

 

[Strychnine]

Seen a couple vids from Jay from Kiev and Anna from UKR both talking about the Russian banking problems. And with the price of oil being super low it must be hard for Putler to keep his war machine going with carrying his oil in old POS tankers in order to make a buck. It's going to get worse before it get's better.
Inside russia with Constatine is live now saying about 15% of all business's are nearing bankruptcy. I think the deck of cards is getting wobbly.

If it means that Putin will stop the war, then it is what it is. He's forcing his nation into bankruptcy just for his own ego. I feel sorry for the people who have no choice and can't escape his...

Pride.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

If it means that Putin will stop the war, then it is what it is. He's forcing his nation into bankruptcy just for his own ego. I feel sorry for the people who have no choice and can't escape his...

Pride.

Yep he is in a highway heading towards a cliff with no off ramp. He cannot stop until he get's at least his 4 oblasts which he will not get any time soon. the sanctions are slowly biting harder while his oil industry is failing between low prices and his refineries getting hit.
I am impressed how he is able to still get enough recruitment in order to keep this sham going. These guys getting bonus's to sign up but they must know it's a one way ticket.

 

[Cid]

Seen a couple vids from Jay from Kiev and Anna from UKR both talking about the Russian banking problems. And with the price of oil being super low it must be hard for Putler to keep his war machine going with carrying his oil in old POS tankers in order to make a buck. It's going to get worse before it get's better.
Inside russia with Constatine is live now saying about 15% of all business's are nearing bankruptcy. I think the deck of cards is getting wobbly.

Yep he is in a highway heading towards a cliff with no off ramp. He cannot stop until he get's at least his 4 oblasts which he will not get any time soon. the sanctions are slowly biting harder while his oil industry is failing between low prices and his refineries getting hit.
I am impressed how he is able to still get enough recruitment in order to keep this sham going. These guys getting bonus's to sign up but they must know it's a one way ticket.

Crazy that even Donald is too dumb to get the cheap win here.

This isn't 2022, '23 or '24. Europe's MIC is contributing a lot more weapons. It's on track to produce more artillery than Russia by 2026. Ukraine's MIC is incredibly impressive and can be easily kept afloat with western money.

Meanwhile some legitimate cracks are starting to appear in the Russian war machine.

• Inability to defend airspace from drones, missile drones and now cruise missiles.
• Front line armor stockpiles depleting
• Artillery advantage shifting towards Ukraine
• Economic cracks appearing

Europe is actually ahead of it's artillery goals now. Through their own production and various initiatives they're going to exceed 2 million shells this year.

Frontline report: Europe moves fast—for once—and floods Ukraine with shells - Euromaidan Press

Brussels promised Kyiv 2 mln shells by 2026, but delivered two-thirds in just four months.

euromaidanpress.com

A US military aid bill wouldn't be sustaining Ukraine anymore. It would be tipping the firepower advantage for an entire year.

 

[SandisLL]

Crazy that even Donald is too dumb to get the cheap win here.

This isn't 2022, '23 or '24. Europe's MIC is contributing a lot more weapons. It's on track to produce more artillery than Russia by 2026. Ukraine's MIC is incredibly impressive and can be easily kept afloat with western money.

Meanwhile some legitimate cracks are starting to appear in the Russian war machine.

• Inability to defend airspace from drones, missile drones and now cruise missiles.
• Front line armor stockpiles depleting
• Artillery advantage shifting towards Ukraine
• Economic cracks appearing

Europe is actually ahead of it's artillery goals now. Through their own production and various initiatives they're going to exceed 2 million shells this year.

Frontline report: Europe moves fast—for once—and floods Ukraine with shells - Euromaidan Press

Brussels promised Kyiv 2 mln shells by 2026, but delivered two-thirds in just four months.

euromaidanpress.com

A US military aid bill wouldn't be sustaining Ukraine anymore. It would be tipping the firepower advantage for an entire year.

Unfortunately without sales or supplies from U.S all ukraine sooner or later will be russia.
Putin and Trump does knows this and ukr maybe are in delusional mode.
Especially if Trump administration will not sign re export permits to allow send ukr stuff even long ago purchased from U.S.
Then Ukr will be Russia. Sooner or later....all ukraine ...without chances.

 

[SandisLL]

Why Trump had told Zelensky that he doesn't have cards?
If about Ukr air defense potential he was 100% correct.

Patriot here doesn't mean even is this good or bad. Yes, it is in reality mainstream export business stuff in real life. Expensive, yes.

Missiles are manufactured only in Japan and U.S.
Where only manufactured in U.S are sold for nice profit and with clauses ofc.

Countries who had purchased missiles, had signed clauses in sales contracts.
Even if missile had been purchased 20 years ago, they can't to send such stuff to Ukr without U.S permit. Trump easily might block such stuff to happen.
Even if will allow, to get papers isn't fast process..
Trump might not allow to sell manufactured in U.S missiles... even for money on the table.
Ofc not likely they will assign even 1 cent for these from U.S buddget too.

So without missiles Patriot batteries might turn into 0 worth for war stuff.

 

[SandisLL]

The same situation is with all missiles used by NASAMS ...the same like with Patriot IF Trump will not allow re export permits get signed. Yes, he might block sucj option.
One exception is that NASAMS 2 definitely then will be 0 worth for war...while NASAMS 3 might use IRIS T missiles.
Depends how much Germany will send or sell these missiles.

 

[Cid]

 

[SandisLL]

IRIS-T can't replace Patriot because these systems are designed as not for usage against ballistic missiles.
Ukr still needs them a lot because they are efective against most precise russia's missiles ..like Kalibr etc stuff.
It wasn't designed to replace PAAMS type lineage or Patriot etc ...
Cos lesser expensive it was intended to be used against aircraft, helicopters and different cruise missiles ...cheaper missiles, more mobile batteries ...so they initially developed this as 2nd layer systems...

More for range till maybe 40 km, target altitude till maybe 20 km, target speed till some 2.2-2.5 Max.. bonus is that they might use LOAL mode and are highly maneurable, seeker is larger than MANPADS does have and more resistant against counter measures than MANPADS seekers.

 

[SandisLL]

SAMP-T ...
Ukr had get promise to get 1 battery in 2025 th.
They told in direct text this.
Then mentioned that maybe autumn 2025 th.

Ukr journalists portraying this as some kind of contract for deliveries.
While in reality they will deliver...ofc in 2025 th....however open is question maybe next week , maybe December 2025 th.

Aster family missiles stuff ....dunno how effective they might be against ballistic missiles.

They are very good against fast maneurable targets... agility of these missiles is insane, they really might maneur till 60G....
However initially this more had been tested against anti ships cruise missiles and drones...
Cos it was initially intended for navy.
At least also not only had been tested vs subsonic cruise missiles, also against sea skimming cruise missiles with 2.5 Max speed.

Shorter range versions Aster 15 ( these are cheaper ) had been used against housithes drones and cruise missiles they ( jemen sectants ) had launched on civil merchant ships.

 

[SandisLL]

Seen a couple vids from Jay from Kiev and Anna from UKR both talking about the Russian banking problems. And with the price of oil being super low it must be hard for Putler to keep his war machine going with carrying his oil in old POS tankers in order to make a buck. It's going to get worse before it get's better.
Inside russia with Constatine is live now saying about 15% of all business's are nearing bankruptcy. I think the deck of cards is getting wobbly.

Banks problems are huge, private debts are groving like in Ukraine. While gubbermint budget doesn't looks bad and gubbermint warranted debts % is low.

Private persons living in debts and inflation unfortunately is good for Putin : easier to hire guys for special operation.


Ofc due to money offered even MIC contractors are silently crying about shortage of perssonel : somewhat educated, enough disciplined males..

If to compare salaries offered for technicians and their assistants etc...and SMO salaries and bonuses....
And technician isn't noob you might teach in 6 months to be technician...

Not alone that it isn't easy to find usable apprentices with brains and hands....
For this too noobs are not usable plus discipline needed..

In russian for example nice insight about salaries and requirements ...might be hh.ru

It isn't political site, it is more like job ads desk.

Listed salaries offers in 95% cases are Monthly salary in roubles BEFORE tax reduction ( cos taxman ofc )....

 

[Rholk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/24/trump-putin-battlefield-ceasefire-ukraine/

 

[San Marino]

Seen a couple vids from Jay from Kiev and Anna from UKR both talking about the Russian banking problems. And with the price of oil being super low it must be hard for Putler to keep his war machine going with carrying his oil in old POS tankers in order to make a buck. It's going to get worse before it get's better.
Inside russia with Constatine is live now saying about 15% of all business's are nearing bankruptcy. I think the deck of cards is getting wobbly.

Yep he is in a highway heading towards a cliff with no off ramp. He cannot stop until he get's at least his 4 oblasts which he will not get any time soon. the sanctions are slowly biting harder while his oil industry is failing between low prices and his refineries getting hit.
I am impressed how he is able to still get enough recruitment in order to keep this sham going. These guys getting bonus's to sign up but they must know it's a one way ticket.

I don't know about your sources, but this is more like what is truly happening in Ukraine, Russia, and the conflict. The Russian economy is nowhere near a collapse. Ukraine is nowhere near a victory.

 

[Rholk]

Smart move and an interesting development

 

[SandisLL]

I had to see some vid with guy...dunno, maybe it is good that he had later deleted video and in this site admins appeared humans and looks that deleted even more than he begged to delete.

Guy had mando service under belt and had worked somewhere, gambled and ofc expensive toys etc. For him.
Ended with debts...fast loan company, friends, telecom operators, something from bank too, then borrowed money from relatives, didn't had paid rent in time....

Applied for special operation cos $.
BTW I didn't had paid any attention IF he wasn't unexpected for me.
0 hate vs ukr and absolutely 0 any real support for Putin.
Everything about money....how much debts left to pay , then how much $ he migh get in savings ....therefore he expressed hope that special operation will be continued in all 2026 th...

While I can't describe this money hungry guy as idiot.

He afforded to post that he is concerned about civies near frontline ....because according to his opinion these civies who had remained in areas close to frontline despite evacutation orders.....are not dangerous for him because doesn't gave f*** who will rule village or are waiting Matushka.

Shocking contrast was cos his mercantile, cold calculations about money he will get next month etc ..completely cold like machine vs stuff he did with civies: asked does they need doctors, food, water....

I get why he didn't liked for someone.. and liked for the same ppl ....because his mercantile nature and ultimate target to get official documented income...without emotions...as only one motivation tool. Calculator mode.
While they had beared his mercantile posts in discussion group because he really did stuff with civies according to conventions and even was polite with them.

Pinnacle was when he offered chance civies to relocate further from frontline...
If will use truck with blood on " floor " and some bodybags...while place for civies still enough.
He didn't had filmed civies, just truck with " floor " in blood and some bodybags... stuff they offered for transport from frontline....

Okey, nasty night but at least opportunity to get in more safe area this night.

Life is bi** even for in reality normal but unlucky guys.

 

[SandisLL]

BTW for someone maybe some memory refreshing is needed seriously...before masturbate in puffy armchair.

I didn't had mentioned this long months in row cos it doesn't makes sense for me. I had mentioned that I might be both saint and sinful.
Still...mods and admins does have access for all users posts , obiviously also for original posts versions and even " deleted " stuff.

In order to think what stuff means if person had posted that he had major ( commisioned officer ) [ OF 3 ] rank when he had retired from U.S military and later had changed his agenda that he had retired as different rank person in retirement moment from U.S military.

 

[SandisLL]

It is assumed ( unfortunately realistic stuff not nonsense ) that russia now does control approx 103 sq km² territory in Sumy oblastj and approx 11 sq km² in Harkov oblastj.

There are enough signs that Putin wants special operation continue all summer ...at least. Otherwise last working day bonuses had not been paid and recruiters for special operation didn't had been ordered to continue sign new contracts for this ... monday recruiting offices will start work as usually ...bonuses will be paid etc.

 

[SandisLL]

Unfortunately there are deep suspicions that they doesn't care about any papers or talks, all this is smokescreen nothing more.

Kremlin administration is confident that they will keep all territories they will manage to occupy de facto... for centuries after this.
Like a lot of ideologies are somewhat talking about generations level achievements for long term.
For a reason a lot of them during last decades had told phrase: they does have time till next elections, we do have generations and unlimited time....

--
Looks that they does knows that IF they will be able to report Putin about even next maybe sq km² captured next time when Putin will ask, then he as usually will order to sign next financing papers for special operation. Again and again.

Upper level decisions makers in Russia are very rich, therefore for them personally doesn't hurt inflation or interest rates % at all.
A lot of them are old and maybe does knows that will not be able to spend all their wealth for fun... while at least there is opportunity to get in history, books for school kids that they were important figures etc...
For a reason they more and more are mentioning old times politicians and rulers often mentioned in history books for schools and uni students...

Maybe they does want to left footprint in history like did persons they are mentioning....

Earlier more common was to talk about Lenin, Tzars and Stalin....now also Napoleon is mentioned more, Revolution and in some cases even old times Japanesee emperors....

 

[SandisLL]

For example Lavrov. He is very rich, 70 + y.o and easily might retire and continue wealthy lifestyle. More than this, if he had retired, almost 0 risk that someone will go against him after this.... till moment that I had remembered that 15+ years ago Lavrov when talked for students had mentioned that he wants to be mentioned in books for schools history programme.

Lavrov regulary , despite rarely , loves to talk for students.... to visit unis, not only in russia etc.
Recently such stuff was in Armenia...then he didn't had talked about history books...unfortunately.

 

[RemyR]