International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Badr Hari]

Ben Shapiro despite being pro-Trump is rational well educated on subjects of foreign policy and knows his stuff. In recent days he went to Kyiv and I'm looking forward to his interview which will be posted tomorrow:

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

“Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine at the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv’s control, three of the people said.”

Source: FT

This puts Ukraine in an impossible position - accept and they effectively cede sovereignty, reject and the US will use that as the excuse they need to say Ukraine doesn’t want peace.

This wouldn't be the worst deal if Ukraine is allowed to stay armed and continues to get Western support. With enough dragon teeth, barbed wire, mines, drones, trenches along the borders, etc I believe Ukraine can hold its own. They will also have no illusions in the future like in 2022 when they were shellshocked and unwilling to do even the most basic actions to slow down the invasion in Kherson.

It's a ridiculous demand, he also doesn't want NATO troops as peacekeepers, and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO, the Yanks just copied and pasted putins demands verbatim as some sort of peace deal and threatened to walk away if they don't agree.
Fuck off then, with friends like these...

Not have NATO as peacekeepers can be negotiated. They can have non-NATO peacekeepers on the borders.

I have said from the beginning that the best worst deal would be Russia keeping Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk and returning the other two oblasts and Ukraine getting security guarantees whether through NATO or another way.

The fact that Russia is willing to return four oblasts is a good sign in my opinion. Not joining NATO can be negotiated in other ways. The issue will be if Russia will demand that Ukraine disarms in which case it would be insane of course. But if Ukraine gets back its four oblasts and builds up security measures along the border, continues to receive support from the West in the form of patriot systems, etc, get peacekeepers on the borders then I think it could work. Ukraine will also not get caught with its pants down for the second time. If Russia sends convoys again, I suspect Ukraine will react like Israel in the Six Day War. Drone warfare has also reshaped warfare and it's part of the reason why I think Ukraine will be able to keep itself safe.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

US will walk away, but then do what? They seem to value their leverage over Ukraine so withdraw military support to force capitulation?

It also seems they really arnt sending any new support anyhow. Just trying to blackmail them with the "minerals" deal which doesn't seem to help UKR at all in the future without any future support or security guarantees.

 

[SandisLL]

The problem is that doesn't looks that U.S are willing even to sell missiles for patriot for $.

There are even worse rumours and west should hope that these are fake: that U.S didn't managed to rack up missiles production for patriot.
If this is reality, not fake dreams, then ....

If peacekeepers are needed, maybe India might install? They does have a lot of guys and probably will be happy if will get $. Quitin then will not tell that there are bad europe etc.

 

[Deleted member 592570]

Ben Shapiro despite being pro-Trump is rational well educated on subjects of foreign policy and knows his stuff. In recent days he went to Kyiv and I'm looking forward to his interview which will be posted tomorrow:

'Ben Shapiro DESTROYS Zelensky with FACTS and LOGIC'

 

[Strychnine]

 

[San Marino]

“Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine at the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv’s control, three of the people said.”

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to end the war in Ukraine on the current frontlines. Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly and explicitly emphasized that Russia maintains its territorial demands over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, however, while also publicly signaling that Russia has greater territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond these four oblasts.

No, I don't see Russia giving Ukraine any territory it has currently taken. Too much Russian blood spilled for what they currently hold. What I do see is no movement west of those regions. Like I said before, Putin is not interested in taking all of Ukraine, especially the western portion of the country. Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts are currently under Russian control. Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblats are planned areas of control. All 8 oblats and Crimea would form "Novorossiya" or "New Russia." That is about 50% of Ukraine. What Russia currently has is 20%. Russia will grind down the Ukrainian Army (soldiers) until it is no longer combat effective. No help from the west can change that. The west is replacing equipment, shells, and ammunition, not soldiers. Zelensky should take the deal before he loses another 30% of his country. How many times was the Ukrainian government and Zelensky warned of the consequences of joining NATO. Like the US warning the USSR of missiles in Cuba. Like the US and Israel warning Iran of having an atomic bomb. Being a sovereign country does not count for shit.

"Novorossiya" = "New Russia"

 

[Rholk]

Putin showing how serious he takes Trump, shits getting embarrassing

 

[SandisLL]

If rumours that U.S for example were not able to increase missiles for Patriot production during last 3 -4 last years ....then I have no clue why U.S is thinking that they are top weapons seller anymore.

Yes, Patriot system like NASAMS aren't ideal but does have pros and cons.
NASAMS might use missiles used by airplanes. . also different models of them.
Patritot is popular cos hype train propaganda job.

It is obsolete idea because doesn't use vertical launch.

During last 10+ years all major investments for SAM systems usable for long or medium range are for....vertical launch....

Cos then you might have lesser launchers for battery ...and also use design from NAVY type solutions...ofc modofied but still. More mainstream : cheaper in long term.
gD and gS & radars anyway for navy will be specific but if all naval SAM systems initially are tested on groud cos cheaper and faster..... this all if adopted might work for ground forces solutions.

In reality even easier : basis for radars, sensors etc doesn't shake....

AEGIS type stuff is future, like these SAMP-type etc.


NASAMS is old idea with inclined launchers but.... they does have some 3 main versions and in a lot of cases might use even old models or new air to air missiles produced by....yup mainly U.S.

 

[SandisLL]

There are a lot of things.
POTUS can't make a lot of decisions he is dreaming he is able to do. He is retirement age uncle not Congress in House and Senate in one person.

---
And if about Ukr he might tell that there this is european problem ( but european voters and taxpayers doesn't think that their problem is to think how to pay for very expensive weapons U.S is selling nor for xxx contracts about U.S LNG sales. Might tell their politicians that it is enough ....).


For exmple Turkey does have claims vs Cyprus and Greece.

So maybe one night green mans might appear in some small iceland and penguins will vote in referendum. Some are with 0 or small number ppl. Penguins maybe will vote in referendums...
Cos Turkey is full NATO member, don't except fast reaction from them.

Later ....yes...realpolitik.

Vietnam, China, North Korea, Taiwan, Japan and SK are watching how weak or strong will be U.S.
Will be weak or no.

 

[San Marino]

Putin showing how serious he takes Trump, shits getting embarrassing.

Sounds bad.
What happened to the scooters and crutch Brigade?
Yeah, 'X' is a great source of information on this conflict. Could that be Ukrainian propaganda?
Why hasn't Russia done this sooner? You clown.
Russia killing Ukrainian civilians? We Americans killed civilians in every war. Is this a new concept for you?
Check under collateral damage. Israel is currently the king of killing innocent civilians, but in their case, it is thoroughly planned that way.

 

[SandisLL]

Some from next meal in europe on the table might be for example Luxembourg.

It is low tax zone in EU and Eurozone for financial companies. This is annoying for France, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands.
So solution in Kremlin's souce might be deNazification and referendums. Likes this or no, they does have even lesser potential to resist vs real physical occupation than poor Moldova.

Monaco too might be easy game: France might conduct referendum and incorporate Monaco in France.

What stuff will do Trump in such case? More looks that the same like with Ukraine today....

 

[Rholk]

Sounds bad.
What happened to the scooters and crutch Brigade?
Yeah, 'X' is a great source of information on this conflict. Could that be Ukrainian propaganda?
Why hasn't Russia done this sooner? You clown.
Russia killing Ukrainian civilians? We Americans killed civilians in every war. Is this a new concept for you?
Check under collateral damage. Israel is currently the king of killing innocent civilians, but in their case, it is thoroughly planned that way.

Calm down bro, just saying it's a bad look on Trump getting cucked like this.

 

[curryjunkie]

This wouldn't be the worst deal if Ukraine is allowed to stay armed and continues to get Western support. With enough dragon teeth, barbed wire, mines, drones, trenches along the borders, etc I believe Ukraine can hold its own. They will also have no illusions in the future like in 2022 when they were shellshocked and unwilling to do even the most basic actions to slow down the invasion in Kherson.



Not have NATO as peacekeepers can be negotiated. They can have non-NATO peacekeepers on the borders.

I have said from the beginning that the best worst deal would be Russia keeping Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk and returning the other two oblasts and Ukraine getting security guarantees whether through NATO or another way.

The fact that Russia is willing to return four oblasts is a good sign in my opinion. Not joining NATO can be negotiated in other ways. The issue will be if Russia will demand that Ukraine disarms in which case it would be insane of course. But if Ukraine gets back its four oblasts and builds up security measures along the border, continues to receive support from the West in the form of patriot systems, etc, get peacekeepers on the borders then I think it could work. Ukraine will also not get caught with its pants down for the second time. If Russia sends convoys again, I suspect Ukraine will react like Israel in the Six Day War. Drone warfare has also reshaped warfare and it's part of the reason why I think Ukraine will be able to keep itself safe.

he isnt returning four oblasts, just staying in place,these demands would simply allow putin time to re arm and without nato troops in ukraine or ukraine as a member he would attack again in a year or two

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

he isnt returning four oblasts, just staying in place,these demands would simply allow putin time to re arm and without nato troops in ukraine or ukraine as a member he would attack again in a year or two

I am reading different things. If it simply freezes the conflict along current front lines then there's far less upside for Ukraine obviously.

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

Sounds bad.
What happened to the scooters and crutch Brigade?
Yeah, 'X' is a great source of information on this conflict. Could that be Ukrainian propaganda?
Why hasn't Russia done this sooner? You clown.
Russia killing Ukrainian civilians? We Americans killed civilians in every war. Is this a new concept for you?
Check under collateral damage. Israel is currently the king of killing innocent civilians, but in their case, it is thoroughly planned that way.

Multiple things can be true at the same time. Russia for example admitted they have weapons shortages...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-russia-lacks-certain-100821644.html

 

[PEB]

Ukraine is going scorched earth on Russia this drone hit in Moscow financial district it looks like with Russia's most iconic buildings in the area.

 

[SandisLL]

Cructches brigades I don't know how to comment.

Donkeys and electric golf carts are effective because they does have lesser thermal signature and low noise level if compare with stuff powered by internal combustion emgines. For this reason a lot of unmanned ground vecihles does use electric engines when they are close to frontline....

To supply ammo and evacute casualities they are effective.
As assault tools ofc there is different situation....

 

[SandisLL]

Interestingly how professional russian propagandist here is pushing how bad is israel but unlike with ukraine never was concerned about taxpayers money for this ( israel )......etc....

Trump administration had authorised additional weapons ( bombs ) supplies for Israel.

This year.. from remaining left from 2024 budget ....bombs paid for long ago and located in europe in 2024 th.
1000+2000 bombs. [ 1000 - 2000 lbs class bombs and 2000 - 1000 lbs class bombs ].
These bombs Israel recieved in march 2025 th.

 

[empsim]

It's such a damn disgrace.

Trump and his government boot licking the worst war criminal of the 21st century. What a bunch of spineless shit bags.