International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[aerius]

I mentioned this exact scenario maybe 150 pages back. I never thought the Russian primary goal during the opening of the invasion was to conquer Kiev. What Putin wanted was the eastern part of Ukraine. ...and I still don't think Putin wants all of Ukraine.

Indeed. It would take at least 20-25 divisions to successfully conquer Kiev and a further 15-20 divisions to secure the supply lines, this is more men & equipment than the entire invasion force that Russia started the war with. Anyone with a basic knowledge of force requirements should've figured out that the Russian forces in the north which marched towards Kiev were a distraction meant to cause panic and tie up Ukrainian units to keep them from being moved to the places where they really mattered. If the Russian raiding group somehow managed to panic Kiev into surrendering it would be a nice bonus, lots of lives saved and the war ends early, but that was never the main objective.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[San Marino]

Definitely triggered.

By you? Never. Actually, I don't get triggered by people with a different point of view than mine.

You really thought I'd be wasting time going through each bullshit article or map you posted?

Yes.
How can you say that what I post is bullshit if you don't even read the articles? How can you say they are out of date if you haven't read them?

I don't even spend brain power talking to him.

That is all you have been doing for the last 10 pages. Like right here with this post.

He asked me for several examples of his lies.

Yes, and you could not provide them. So, as usual, you are full of shit.

Although Russians have made some minor progress in the last day or two there again so he'll no doubt declare some sort of victory.

Taking over the Kursk region was a minor progress? What would you consider a large progress?
How exactly will the Ukrainian Army in the east deal with 15 Russian Divisions Putin is throwing their way? Ukraine could not even hold on to Kursk. You and others still think that the Ukrainian Army can continue this war for another 3 years. Explain to me how Ukraine plans to do that? Is the US or the EU giving Ukraine fresh troops to fight? Money and weaponry from the west will accomplish very little at this stage of the game. Maybe you should have listened to what your father was telling you about the Russian Army.

 

[San Marino]

A Former US Marine Corps Officer's Analysis of the Ukraine War

In addition to being a physical struggle, war is both a mental contest and a moral argument.

imetatronink.substack.com

Excellent article.

 

[SandisLL]

Indeed. It would take at least 20-25 divisions to successfully conquer Kiev and a further 15-20 divisions to secure the supply lines, this is more men & equipment than the entire invasion force that Russia started the war with. Anyone with a basic knowledge of force requirements should've figured out that the Russian forces in the north which marched towards Kiev were a distraction meant to cause panic and tie up Ukrainian units to keep them from being moved to the places where they really mattered. If the Russian raiding group somehow managed to panic Kiev into surrendering it would be a nice bonus, lots of lives saved and the war ends early, but that was never the main objective.

We do know that you support Russia and better will see all Ukraine to be incorporated in Russia.
There is nothing wrong to have such ambitions, just don't think that we can't see this reality. Your realpolitik you in reality support....

However why to waste time to push here new version about " distraction " etc.


If panick had been more ...gubbermint had fled ...etc ..then didn't had mattered does russia use 1 division or 50 or 100.

They simply had ukr with panicking population, wrecked finances, without acting government etc....literally mesh where easy to rule ....in a lot of cases even with non military tools.

You are thinking that for ukr better is to be incorporated in russia.
We see this.

 

[SandisLL]

BTW next week no one in depth will think about ukraine or russia..
Monday when banking day will end, they will calculate....vuala trumptariffs effect on stock market, currencies exchange rates etc...
All week ....definitely.

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

Indeed. It would take at least 20-25 divisions to successfully conquer Kiev and a further 15-20 divisions to secure the supply lines, this is more men & equipment than the entire invasion force that Russia started the war with. Anyone with a basic knowledge of force requirements should've figured out that the Russian forces in the north which marched towards Kiev were a distraction meant to cause panic and tie up Ukrainian units to keep them from being moved to the places where they really mattered. If the Russian raiding group somehow managed to panic Kiev into surrendering it would be a nice bonus, lots of lives saved and the war ends early, but that was never the main objective.

What a convenient revisionist version of what happened. I swear you're Spinmarino's alt. Russia really thought they'd be welcomed or face no resistance like they faced in Crimea due to confusion of men in soldier uniforms without insignia. Russian soldiers were shocked when people were walking in front of their tanks and attacking them with molotov cocktails.

Russians wanted to quickly take Kiiv and change the government. They failed due to poorly planned logistics and intel from the Americans so the airport invasion force was quickly put down. The several hundred assassins sent to kill President Zelenskyy were likewise eliminated because Russians were shit with their tech. I imagine every one of them was tracked via their Russian sim cards.

By you? Never. Actually, I don't get triggered by people with a different point of view than mine.

Sure buddy. Anything you say.

Yes.
How can you say that what I post is bullshit if you don't even read the articles? How can you say they are out of date if you haven't read them?

I looked at your last article and had a hearty laugh. I don't think you even looked at the date. I think you just saw the title which aligned with your talking points so you posted it. What an airball. That's an example of your lies and or stupidity.

That is all you have been doing for the last 10 pages. Like right here with this post.

I barely spoke to you in the last ten pages.

Yes, and you could not provide them. So, as usual, you are full of shit.

Sure buddy sure. Everyone is blind and dumb.

Taking over the Kursk region was a minor progress? What would you consider a large progress?
How exactly will the Ukrainian Army in the east deal with 15 Russian Divisions Putin is throwing their way? Ukraine could not even hold on to Kursk. You and others still think that the Ukrainian Army can continue this war for another 3 years. Explain to me how Ukraine plans to do that? Is the US or the EU giving Ukraine fresh troops to fight? Money and weaponry from the west will accomplish very little at this stage of the game. Maybe you should have listened to what your father was telling you about the Russian Army.

Yes Russians took back most of the Kursk thanks to Comrade Krasnov.

You keep saying the same things from three years ago. You'd think you'd learn but no you're like the Russians who still send convoys of a dozen closely packed vehicles that get demolished.

 

[curryjunkie]

What a convenient revisionist version of what happened. I swear you're Spinmarino's alt.

you keep saying the same things from three years ago. You'd think you'd learn but no you're like the Russians who still send convoys of a dozen closely packed vehicles that get demolished.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Indeed. It would take at least 20-25 divisions to successfully conquer Kiev and a further 15-20 divisions to secure the supply lines, this is more men & equipment than the entire invasion force that Russia started the war with. Anyone with a basic knowledge of force requirements should've figured out that the Russian forces in the north which marched towards Kiev were a distraction meant to cause panic and tie up Ukrainian units to keep them from being moved to the places where they really mattered. If the Russian raiding group somehow managed to panic Kiev into surrendering it would be a nice bonus, lots of lives saved and the war ends early, but that was never the main objective.

"Lots of lives saved" oh how humanitarian lmao

 

[Deleted member 110072]

We do know that you support Russia and better will see all Ukraine to be incorporated in Russia.
There is nothing wrong to have such ambitions, just don't think that we can't see this reality. Your realpolitik you in reality support....

However why to waste time to push here new version about " distraction " etc.


If panick had been more ...gubbermint had fled ...etc ..then didn't had mattered does russia use 1 division or 50 or 100.

They simply had ukr with panicking population, wrecked finances, without acting government etc....literally mesh where easy to rule ....in a lot of cases even with non military tools.

You are thinking that for ukr better is to be incorporated in russia.
We see this.

The basic point does seem to make sense to me, the initial invasion force doesn't seem large enough to have a realistic expectation of taking Kiev let alone most of western Ukraine if significant resistance was met, perhaps it hoped for some kind of collapse or the Zelensky government making some kind of deal but I do think the idea Putin was most focused on taking territory in eastern Ukraine has merit.

What Putin "wants" I do think is hard to guess, I wouldnt lake to say for certain I think significant parts of eastern Ukraine are the limits of his ambition but honestly it does seem to make sense in terms of were were seeing forces committed and in terms of actually controlling annexed territory, he does have a history of targeting areas of Russian speaking territory. Elsewhere you could argue invasion and then setting up puppet governments is a possibility as well I spose.

I mean "only" wanting to take large parts of a neighbouring country were some cultural links might make ruling easier doesn't exactly excuse him as some moral political actor, he's a nasty nationalist warmonger and a war criminal. People who get caught up in apologism can I think be too willing to look past that, they can get drawn intro the same kind of binary thinking which is used by those they oppose politically.

Personally my worry was always that the US/NATO/EU were too willing to use Ukraine as a tool against Putin rather than looking out for its best interests. You can think Putin is an evil bastard and still think that, I mean for all the talk about WW2 the truth is our armies are not fighting this war and it looks like there was never any intension of that happening. All the talk about "appeasing" Putin prior to 2022 I don't really see much evidence of personally, at least not specifically in Ukraine, I think the appeasement was more in the neoliberial system which helped him rebuild Russian power whilst becoming increasingly dictatorial(and a war criminal as far back as the 2nd Chechen conflicts) and profited a lot of wealthy people in the west as well.

 

[San Marino]

ISW, 4 April 2025.

Russia continues to employ strike packages predominantly comprised of drones amid reports that it is growing its missile stockpile.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko noted in an April 2 report that Russia used 83 missiles in total throughout March 2024, the lowest number of missiles used in a month since February 2022. Kovalenko assessed that Russian forces are focusing on singular, massive missile strikes accompanied by drone waves, an approach that has hindered Ukraine's ability to intercept incoming missiles. An analysis done by The Telegraph found that the number of Russian drone strikes against Ukraine rose by over 50% since February 2025 compared to January 2025, partially as a result of Russian efforts to use massive drone strikes to secure concessions from Ukraine during ongoing negotiations with the United States. An unspecified NATO official stated on April 3 that NATO intelligence indicates that Russia is producing a significant number of missiles domestically and purchasing additional missiles from North Korea to increase missile stockpiles in preparation for future large-scale missile strikes against Ukraine. These assessments are consistent with ISW's observation of recent Russian strike packages, which were composed predominantly of drones.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on April 4 that Russian forces launched 78 Shahed and decoy drones from the direction of Bryansk and Kursk oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai overnight on April 3 to 4. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 42 drones over the northern, eastern, and central parts of Ukraine and that 22 drones were “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Ukrainian officials reported that drone strikes damaged civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Putin begins 2025 confident of victory as war of attrition takes toll on Ukraine

Donald Trump has vowed to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine but Vladimir Putin begins 2025 more confident of victory than ever and with little interest in a negotiated peace deal, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Russia’s gains in 2024 owed much to tactical and technological adaptations implemented since the early stages of the war. At the same time, Moscow also clearly benefited from a range of problems bedeviling the Ukrainian military, with troop shortages, ineffective leadership, and supply uncertainties at the very top of the list. Ukraine’s survival as a state may now depend on the country’s ability to resolve these issues in the coming months.

What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025 – European Council on Foreign Relations

Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation

ecfr.eu

That brings us to the most serious consequence of all: nuclear proliferation. Remember that Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, in return for security assurances from the US, the United Kingdom and Russia—and then got hammered by one of the powers that promised it security. In the latest KIIS polling, 73% of Ukrainians support Ukraine “restoring nuclear weapons”. Remarkably, 46% say they would do so even if the West imposed sanctions and stopped aid. In effect, Ukrainians are saying to the West: if you won’t defend us, we’ll [expletive deleted] do it ourselves. On recent visits to Ukraine I’ve been told several times, “It’s NATO or nukes!”

* So, Ukraine is going to be making its own nukes now? How long will that take? 10 to 20 years? They don't have the technology or bomb grade Uranium or Plutonium. Do they want a nuclear war with Russia? Maybe they could buy a few nuclear missiles from Pakistan like Saudi Arabia has done. Ukraine is far from winning this conflict. Actually, I don't think they will win this conflict. Russia will control 40% of eastern Ukraine and the other 60% will remain under Ukrainian control under another corrupt government.

Beyond Appeasement: What is Feasible for Ukraine

Accepting Russian conditions is not justified by the current situation in Ukraine. Instead, sustained Western assistance to Kyiv has strong prospects of securing a stalemate that protects European security and advances Ukraine’s goal of joining the European Union.

www.csis.org

Members of the U.S. government have recently made the point that three years into Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression, Ukraine has found itself in a helpless situation. U.S. President Donald Trump, for example, has insisted that he has “been watching [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky] for years . . . negotiate with no cards. He has no cards, and you get sick of it.” By Trump’s logic, it follows that the only solution is to somehow try and reach a peace plan with Putin even at the expense of multiple concessions to the Kremlin. In an effort to achieve the rushed settlement, Trump’s team of negotiators may even allegedly revisit the so-called Istanbul agreements proposed by the Russians at the start of the war in 2022. The Russian proposals during the Istanbul talks were highly unfavorable to Ukraine, including demands that Kyiv unilaterally abandon its NATO aspirations and announce permanent neutrality, refuse foreign weapons and hosting foreign military personnel, and reduce the size of its military and arms stockpiles.

 

[SandisLL]

The basic point does seem to make sense to me, the initial invasion force doesn't seem large enough to have a realistic expectation of taking Kiev let alone most of western Ukraine if significant resistance was met, perhaps it hoped for some kind of collapse or the Zelensky government making some kind of deal but I do think the idea Putin was most focused on taking territory in eastern Ukraine has merit.

What Putin "wants" I do think is hard to guess, I wouldnt lake to say for certain I think significant parts of eastern Ukraine are the limits of his ambition but honestly it does seem to make sense in terms of were were seeing forces committed and in terms of actually controlling annexed territory, he does have a history of targeting areas of Russian speaking territory. Elsewhere you could argue invasion and then setting up puppet governments is a possibility as well I spose.

I mean "only" wanting to take large parts of a neighbouring country were some cultural links might make ruling easier doesn't exactly excuse him as some moral political actor, he's a nasty nationalist warmonger and a war criminal. People who get caught up in apologism can I think be too willing to look past that, they can get drawn intro the same kind of binary thinking which is used by those they oppose politically.

Personally my worry was always that the US/NATO/EU were too willing to use Ukraine as a tool against Putin rather than looking out for its best interests. You can think Putin is an evil bastard and still think that, I mean for all the talk about WW2 the truth is our armies are not fighting this war and it looks like there was never any intension of that happening. All the talk about "appeasing" Putin prior to 2022 I don't really see much evidence of personally, at least not specifically in Ukraine, I think the appeasement was more in the neoliberial system which helped him rebuild Russian power whilst becoming increasingly dictatorial(and a war criminal as far back as the 2nd Chechen conflicts) and profited a lot of wealthy people in the west as well.

Provoking tales are mainly just to get propagandists employed...

Russia obiviously does want completely control Ukraine.
In best case by incorportation in Russian federation.. Maybe might agree with situation with Ukr ruled by pro Kremlin oriented lawmakers appointing pro kremlin oriented ministers etc...
Like this.

If didn't managed, then for first episode good is to get part of territory and to do futher steps ofc.

They are thinking that they does have generations to achieve this but west does have time till next elections.
They are correct.

 

[SandisLL]

In scenario if lawmakers had massively fled from Kiev, and other top officials too...
Then... Ukr had been without acting government and ofc had to get 404 quickly.
Even without big military force used.
They then might had very fast financial collapse and obivously didn't had get financial support. And who might had ruled military and law institutions if bosses had fled? 0.
Excellent variant with rows rushing to exchange money in foreign currency , soldiers and policemans without confidencs that they will get next salary paid not alone any smart orders what to do etc...

 

[Deleted member 110072]

Provoking tales are mainly just to get propagandists employed...

Russia obiviously does want completely control Ukraine.
In best case by incorportation in Russian federation.. Maybe might agree with situation with Ukr ruled by pro Kremlin oriented lawmakers appointing pro kremlin oriented ministers etc...
Like this.

If didn't managed, then for first episode good is to get part of territory and to do futher steps ofc.

They are thinking that they does have generations to achieve this but west does have time till next elections.
They are correct.

I don't think so, granted there are clearly some propagandists who look to place the blame purely on the US/NATO and excuse Putin's actions which I wouldn't agree with at all, the man is a war criminal but again I don't think its a binary situation, I do think more could have been done to prevent this war which would obviously be in Ukraine's interest given what's happened.

Again for me the real appeasement was from the globalist system which built up and sustained Putin, we were told for decades it would lead to the spread of liberal democracy and that failing that it would stop conflicts like this due to the interdependency and ability of the US to punish with sanctions. The reality is I think dealing with Putin's Russia with very few questions asked was making certain people in the west very rich and everything else was a secondary interest as it failed to achieve those goals.

Honestly though at the moment I feel like a bigger issue is looking at how the conflict might unfold, at present it really looks if this conflict carries on as it has been Putin is going to carry on gobbling up eastern Ukraine. Even if your aim was to take back current occupied eastern Ukraine I feel like things going on as they are doesn't seem like its likely to achieve that, some kind of peace deal which at least keeps Russian control at something like its current level and allows Ukraine to strengthen its position seems better than that. Granted though I do not trust Trump much to not try and exploit any peace deal for his own ends as we've already seen evidence of with the minerals, I don't trust him not to open up to dirty Russian money either if it benefits certain wealthy people again either.

I just don't like the WW2 rhetoric coming from some quarters whilst its only Ukrainians who are dying.

 

[Strychnine]

Dead man walking...

 

[San Marino]

I do think more could have been done to prevent this war which would obviously be in Ukraine's interest given what's happened.

Indeed.
Ukraine remaining neutral being the key action. Biden supporting a minor Russian incursion into Ukraine did not help things either. A stronger US president could have prevented both the Ukrainian and Israeli conflicts. Europe and the US were well aware of the corruption of the Zelensky government and mistreatment of the ethnic Russian minority in eastern Ukraine.

Honestly though at the moment I feel like a bigger issue is looking at how the conflict might unfold, at present it really looks if this conflict carries on as it has been Putin is going to carry on gobbling up eastern Ukraine.

I think once Russia has taken over 30% to 40% of eastern Ukraine, the conflict will stop. A decreasing Ukrainian Army will speed up that process.

Granted though I do not trust Trump much to not try and exploit any peace deal for his own ends as we've already seen evidence of with the minerals.

The minerals deal is not to benefit Trump. It is a way for Ukraine to pay the US back for military aid it has so far given Ukraine for free and any military aid going forward. I don't believe either Europe or the US will reach a peace deal for Ukraine. Ukraine will continue to fight this war until Russia has reached its goal and Ukraine has reached a defeat. A defeat in the eastern front, not the western portion of Ukraine.

 

[Deleted member 110072]

I don't believe either Europe or the US will reach a peace deal for Ukraine. Ukraine will continue to fight this war until Russia has reached its goal and Ukraine has reached a defeat. A defeat in the eastern front, not the western portion of Ukraine.

Sadly I think this maybe what happens likely resulting in many thousands more deaths and a lot more of Ukraine lost.

I do think a big issue here is really PR, we know on Putin's side its obviously a big issue as losing in Ukraine could potentially be fatal for him but I think on the western side as well a great deal has been staked on this conflict. The kind of peace deal which could end the conflict is likely going to look bad in the face of the rhetoric of recent years, its going to make it look like the US/NATO has lost or at least come off worst so its going to be a very hard deal to sell.

You may just get Putin advances as far as he thinks he can hold and then a frozen conflict afterwards more like Korea.

 

[Limbo Pete]

The basic point does seem to make sense to me, the initial invasion force doesn't seem large enough to have a realistic expectation of taking Kiev let alone most of western Ukraine if significant resistance was met, perhaps it hoped for some kind of collapse or the Zelensky government making some kind of deal but I do think the idea Putin was most focused on taking territory in eastern Ukraine has merit.

What Putin "wants" I do think is hard to guess, I wouldnt lake to say for certain I think significant parts of eastern Ukraine are the limits of his ambition but honestly it does seem to make sense in terms of were were seeing forces committed and in terms of actually controlling annexed territory, he does have a history of targeting areas of Russian speaking territory. Elsewhere you could argue invasion and then setting up puppet governments is a possibility as well I spose.

I mean "only" wanting to take large parts of a neighbouring country were some cultural links might make ruling easier doesn't exactly excuse him as some moral political actor, he's a nasty nationalist warmonger and a war criminal. People who get caught up in apologism can I think be too willing to look past that, they can get drawn intro the same kind of binary thinking which is used by those they oppose politically.

Personally my worry was always that the US/NATO/EU were too willing to use Ukraine as a tool against Putin rather than looking out for its best interests. You can think Putin is an evil bastard and still think that, I mean for all the talk about WW2 the truth is our armies are not fighting this war and it looks like there was never any intension of that happening. All the talk about "appeasing" Putin prior to 2022 I don't really see much evidence of personally, at least not specifically in Ukraine, I think the appeasement was more in the neoliberial system which helped him rebuild Russian power whilst becoming increasingly dictatorial(and a war criminal as far back as the 2nd Chechen conflicts) and profited a lot of wealthy people in the west as well.

???
It's not hard at all to guess what Putin wants lol
He wants to conquer Ukraine -all of it- and everything else he could possibly get his hands on

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

I don't think so, granted there are clearly some propagandists who look to place the blame purely on the US/NATO and excuse Putin's actions which I wouldn't agree with at all, the man is a war criminal but again I don't think its a binary situation, I do think more could have been done to prevent this war which would obviously be in Ukraine's interest given what's happened.

Again for me the real appeasement was from the globalist system which built up and sustained Putin, we were told for decades it would lead to the spread of liberal democracy and that failing that it would stop conflicts like this due to the interdependency and ability of the US to punish with sanctions. The reality is I think dealing with Putin's Russia with very few questions asked was making certain people in the west very rich and everything else was a secondary interest as it failed to achieve those goals.

Honestly though at the moment I feel like a bigger issue is looking at how the conflict might unfold, at present it really looks if this conflict carries on as it has been Putin is going to carry on gobbling up eastern Ukraine. Even if your aim was to take back current occupied eastern Ukraine I feel like things going on as they are doesn't seem like its likely to achieve that, some kind of peace deal which at least keeps Russian control at something like its current level and allows Ukraine to strengthen its position seems better than that. Granted though I do not trust Trump much to not try and exploit any peace deal for his own ends as we've already seen evidence of with the minerals, I don't trust him not to open up to dirty Russian money either if it benefits certain wealthy people again either.

I just don't like the WW2 rhetoric coming from some quarters whilst its Ukrainians who are dying.

Scenario exactly looks 1938: west had dreams that by allowing Hitler to annex Suddetenland ( funny that is is coal mining area ) and by giving f *** about stuff with Austria they will be fine.

They soon get fun cos after this Hitler had launched money printing machine and pushed 24/7 wartime economy.
Obiviously only prohibitions and restrictions might hide money printers working 24/7.
Only one tool to implement these was ... war...

There are a lot of vibes from 1938 th...even some propaganda excuses. The same.

___
As for Ukr: looks that Putin does have money, guys are hired and he is told that small special operation is going as had been planned.


☆ therefore Putin will continue tell Trump etc what they wants to hear.....while will continue war in ukraine .....
Will see how long it will take for Trump to get that Putin doesn't wants to end war....

Obiviously if he might pay soldiers and is able to hire next guys...then ....

Does for them makes sense not continue?
They are confident that will keep land areas they will manage to grab before ceasefire.....
The longer will be negotoations after ceasefire: too will be better for Putin because west will forget ...and ykr will get lesser support...incl financial. Weaker position: better to press ukr more.

Looks that will continue and delay ceasefire as long as it will be possible.
After this might " negotiate " even months in row....