International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Chad R. Thundercock]

It doesn't matter, you always look real stupid wherever you decide to post. I am always entertained, thank you.

Hey, you're welcome, dickless. I'm here all night.

 

[Cuauhtemoc]

You are correct, their defense spending has risen to 7.5% of GDP.......how long do you think they can keep that up?

Honestly? For a long time, their economy is mostly based on selling commodities and manufacturing their own (somewhat low quality) stuff. China and India will buy their oil and they can buy the stuff they do not manufacture from non-Western countries. There are a few key components they cannot buy, legally, but they seem to be able to smuggle them to keep major industries afloat.

Is it really considered winning? It's more like a Pyrrhic victory to me. Russia lost almost a half million soldiers in this conflict so far, turned themselves into a complete pariah of Europe, and got an ass load of sanctions shoved far up its ass.

Pretty much, the sanctions are not that important but losing hundreds of thousands of young men is terrible for Russia.

 

[AWilder]

Russia can't even keep the mobile crematoriums staffed. To the front!

 

[USA!USA!]

Russia can't even keep the mobile crematoriums staffed. To the front!

Fuck Putin and his meat grinder. He literally doesn't even care about his own people - it's amazing he has so many supporters on here. Despicable.

 

[ferrisjso]

Is it really considered winning? It's more like a Pyrrhic victory to me. Russia lost almost a half million soldiers in this conflict so far, turned themselves into a complete pariah of Europe, and got an ass load of sanctions shoved far up its ass.

This is a complicated question. Since this seems like a sincere question I will give it a sincere detailed answer. It goes without saying not all wins are equal and what constitutes a victory is often subject to intense disagreement(many wars both sides can reasonably claim victory). Things could have certainly went better for Russia then they did. And of course they had a deal to get the Donbass without losing a single soldier and the net territory they do acquire will probably not be viewed as worth the lives it cost just because they could have had it for nothing. At this moment they control territory they didn't have in that deal but also don't have the whole Donbass they did though they are trying to change that. So make of that what you will.

While I maintain Russia was never aiming for Kiev or the Western portion of Ukraine and I'm very certain of that they were hoping to take more than they did though how much is only truly known to Putin himself. Whether that be Kharkov, Mykolaev or Kherson barring Ukraines total collapse these places will not be under Russian control when this war ends). Outside of the Donbass the only major target I see Russia capturing is Izium maybe.

However Ukraine certainly did not win. Their greatest successes involve territory they would not have needed to cede in the peace deal Boris Johnston scrapped. This by definition makes the war not worth it because the war was waged with the goal of getting a better outcome than that deal. Whether it be the Kharkov counteroffensive or Kherson the Ukranian successes of this war retook places which would have been Ukranian anyway if Zelensky had bended the knee making those victories net losses. By tearing up that peace deal Ukraine needs to hold land that would have been taken away in the peace deal to have "won" something. And while they currently hold lands they would have lost in the deal at best that is a wash when you counter what they lose which they wouldn't have. And of course the lines today are not going to be the final lines and any further changes big or small will be in Russias favor.

One very well founded theory I have is the Ukranian govt(not Zelensky everyone else) actually wanted to lose the eastern territories and if they didn't they certainly wanted to lose its people. The Ukranian far right will benefit dramatically because the war will lead to them controlling the country for generations. Whether they are in Russia or somewhere in the West the people who would have been the far rights opponents(assuming they would have been allowed to run and vote) have left the country and will not be returning. This is the main reason Ukraine has not given up. Many of the people who would have forced the govt to give up chose to leave. Ukraine is largely made up of true believers at this point. Thus they will not collapse even if pre war Ukraine would have. What led to this conflict is Ukraine being divided. And whatever its shape and population post war Ukraine will be politically homogenous and some in Ukraine will view that as victory in defeat.

I disagree with the Russian sanctions and pariah thing. In that regard I actually think Russia scored a monumental victory because they turned the world against the US Dollar by demonstrating how easily the US would use it as a disciplinary tool against even the strongest nations. BRICS was started during this conflict and it was possibly started because of this conflict. And I think Russia is much more pleased with its standing in the international community today than it was in 2022. To whatever extent it was a pariah today it has been a pariah since 2014. While there was much anti US and anti world order sentiment this war moved that from frustration behind closed doors into the open.


In terms of being a pyrric victory for Russia this implies the losses were not worth it and also implies those losses caused problems down the line(you could argue this was the case in WW2). And whether or not those losses could have been avoided by negotiations or better tactics Russia will gain many times more people from this war then they lost in casualties. While we don't know exactly what Russia will gain(or how many people will be lost) the territory and how many people will leave they should gain somewhere around 4-5 million people at least. The annexation of Crimea which this war will solidify has another 2 million.

 

[ferrisjso]

The airborne attack to take Kyiv was just a feint, right?

No. Though the pullout was to avoid high casualty urban warfare it was not a "feint". Never said it was either said they did not plan to hold Kiev or hold western Ukraine after the war which some dispute. They intended to take Kiev, collapse the govt and dictate peace.

If they had ambitions in the western part of the country they would not have pulled out of the land they already held at that time which was substantial. They would have done what they did in the East they'd have fortified everything and dug in.

 

[Strychnine]

Pres. Putin spends 7,000 British pounds for a suit (from a NATO country) while he sends his brightest into the human lawnmower. SMH.

 

[Strychnine]

No. Though the pullout was to avoid high casualty urban warfare it was not a "feint". Never said it was either said they did not plan to hold Kiev or hold western Ukraine after the war which some dispute. They intended to take Kiev, collapse the govt and dictate peace.

If they had ambitions in the western part of the country they would not have pulled out of the land they already held at that time which was substantial. They would have done what they did in the East they'd have fortified everything and dug in.

Sorry if you didn't know but the "great Kyiv feint" is a running joke here from some previous posters.

I won't name them, but they know who they are.

 

[Copper Burner]

Fuck Putin and his meat grinder. He literally doesn't even care about his own people - it's amazing he has so many supporters on here. Despicable.

Yet Putin is the one that is welcoming peace talks and a potential cease fire. Go figure.

Please let us know when the military industrial complex war hawks want to entertain peace talks. Its clear right now that they couldn't give two shits about Ukrainian lives.

The paperwork was signed by both Russia and Ukraine. Boris Johnson flew in and prevented the peace deal from happening.

Bu buh muh Russian aggression!

 

[Limbo Pete]

This is a complicated question. Since this seems like a sincere question I will give it a sincere detailed answer. It goes without saying not all wins are equal and what constitutes a victory is often subject to intense disagreement(many wars both sides can reasonably claim victory). Things could have certainly went better for Russia then they did. And of course they had a deal to get the Donbass without losing a single soldier and the net territory they do acquire will probably not be viewed as worth the lives it cost just because they could have had it for nothing. At this moment they control territory they didn't have in that deal but also don't have the whole Donbass they did though they are trying to change that. So make of that what you will.

While I maintain Russia was never aiming for Kiev or the Western portion of Ukraine and I'm very certain of that they were hoping to take more than they did though how much is only truly known to Putin himself. Whether that be Kharkov, Mykolaev or Kherson barring Ukraines total collapse these places will not be under Russian control when this war ends). Outside of the Donbass the only major target I see Russia capturing is Izium maybe.

However Ukraine certainly did not win. Their greatest successes involve territory they would not have needed to cede in the peace deal Boris Johnston scrapped. This by definition makes the war not worth it because the war was waged with the goal of getting a better outcome than that deal. Whether it be the Kharkov counteroffensive or Kherson the Ukranian successes of this war retook places which would have been Ukranian anyway if Zelensky had bended the knee making those victories net losses. By tearing up that peace deal Ukraine needs to hold land that would have been taken away in the peace deal to have "won" something. And while they currently hold lands they would have lost in the deal at best that is a wash when you counter what they lose which they wouldn't have. And of course the lines today are not going to be the final lines and any further changes big or small will be in Russias favor.

One very well founded theory I have is the Ukranian govt(not Zelensky everyone else) actually wanted to lose the eastern territories and if they didn't they certainly wanted to lose its people. The Ukranian far right will benefit dramatically because the war will lead to them controlling the country for generations. Whether they are in Russia or somewhere in the West the people who would have been the far rights opponents(assuming they would have been allowed to run and vote) have left the country and will not be returning. This is the main reason Ukraine has not given up. Many of the people who would have forced the govt to give up chose to leave. Ukraine is largely made up of true believers at this point. Thus they will not collapse even if pre war Ukraine would have. What led to this conflict is Ukraine being divided. And whatever its shape and population post war Ukraine will be politically homogenous and some in Ukraine will view that as victory in defeat.

I disagree with the Russian sanctions and pariah thing. In that regard I actually think Russia scored a monumental victory because they turned the world against the US Dollar by demonstrating how easily the US would use it as a disciplinary tool against even the strongest nations. BRICS was started during this conflict and it was possibly started because of this conflict. And I think Russia is much more pleased with its standing in the international community today than it was in 2022. To whatever extent it was a pariah today it has been a pariah since 2014. While there was much anti US and anti world order sentiment this war moved that from frustration behind closed doors into the open.


In terms of being a pyrric victory for Russia this implies the losses were not worth it and also implies those losses caused problems down the line(you could argue this was the case in WW2). And whether or not those losses could have been avoided by negotiations or better tactics Russia will gain many times more people from this war then they lost in casualties. While we don't know exactly what Russia will gain(or how many people will be lost) the territory and how many people will leave they should gain somewhere around 4-5 million people at least. The annexation of Crimea which this war will solidify has another 2 million.

Since the goal of Russia is to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign nation, and Ukraine is therefore fighting for its very survival, continued existence itself is the actual win lol you tomato soup can

 

[Hog-train]

Russia can't even keep the mobile crematoriums staffed. To the front!

I'm baffled how Putin is still able to get normal Russians to enlist. Are they that propagandized that they have no idea?

I mean there are many stories of soldiers not even getting paid.

 

[Limbo Pete]

No. Though the pullout was to avoid high casualty urban warfare it was not a "feint". Never said it was either said they did not plan to hold Kiev or hold western Ukraine after the war which some dispute. They intended to take Kiev, collapse the govt and dictate peace.

If they had ambitions in the western part of the country they would not have pulled out of the land they already held at that time which was substantial. They would have done what they did in the East they'd have fortified everything and dug in.

the plan was to seize the whole country, starting with decapitating the government and installing a pro regime junta of some kind

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Rational Poster]

This is a complicated question. Since this seems like a sincere question I will give it a sincere detailed answer. It goes without saying not all wins are equal and what constitutes a victory is often subject to intense disagreement(many wars both sides can reasonably claim victory). Things could have certainly went better for Russia then they did. And of course they had a deal to get the Donbass without losing a single soldier and the net territory they do acquire will probably not be viewed as worth the lives it cost just because they could have had it for nothing. At this moment they control territory they didn't have in that deal but also don't have the whole Donbass they did though they are trying to change that. So make of that what you will.

While I maintain Russia was never aiming for Kiev or the Western portion of Ukraine and I'm very certain of that they were hoping to take more than they did though how much is only truly known to Putin himself. Whether that be Kharkov, Mykolaev or Kherson barring Ukraines total collapse these places will not be under Russian control when this war ends). Outside of the Donbass the only major target I see Russia capturing is Izium maybe.

However Ukraine certainly did not win. Their greatest successes involve territory they would not have needed to cede in the peace deal Boris Johnston scrapped. This by definition makes the war not worth it because the war was waged with the goal of getting a better outcome than that deal. Whether it be the Kharkov counteroffensive or Kherson the Ukranian successes of this war retook places which would have been Ukranian anyway if Zelensky had bended the knee making those victories net losses. By tearing up that peace deal Ukraine needs to hold land that would have been taken away in the peace deal to have "won" something. And while they currently hold lands they would have lost in the deal at best that is a wash when you counter what they lose which they wouldn't have. And of course the lines today are not going to be the final lines and any further changes big or small will be in Russias favor.

One very well founded theory I have is the Ukranian govt(not Zelensky everyone else) actually wanted to lose the eastern territories and if they didn't they certainly wanted to lose its people. The Ukranian far right will benefit dramatically because the war will lead to them controlling the country for generations. Whether they are in Russia or somewhere in the West the people who would have been the far rights opponents(assuming they would have been allowed to run and vote) have left the country and will not be returning. This is the main reason Ukraine has not given up. Many of the people who would have forced the govt to give up chose to leave. Ukraine is largely made up of true believers at this point. Thus they will not collapse even if pre war Ukraine would have. What led to this conflict is Ukraine being divided. And whatever its shape and population post war Ukraine will be politically homogenous and some in Ukraine will view that as victory in defeat.

I disagree with the Russian sanctions and pariah thing. In that regard I actually think Russia scored a monumental victory because they turned the world against the US Dollar by demonstrating how easily the US would use it as a disciplinary tool against even the strongest nations. BRICS was started during this conflict and it was possibly started because of this conflict. And I think Russia is much more pleased with its standing in the international community today than it was in 2022. To whatever extent it was a pariah today it has been a pariah since 2014. While there was much anti US and anti world order sentiment this war moved that from frustration behind closed doors into the open.


In terms of being a pyrric victory for Russia this implies the losses were not worth it and also implies those losses caused problems down the line(you could argue this was the case in WW2). And whether or not those losses could have been avoided by negotiations or better tactics Russia will gain many times more people from this war then they lost in casualties. While we don't know exactly what Russia will gain(or how many people will be lost) the territory and how many people will leave they should gain somewhere around 4-5 million people at least. The annexation of Crimea which this war will solidify has another 2 million.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation. Boris Johnson never had the authority to accept or reject a peace deal on behalf of Ukraine. This is all bullshit and you should feel bad you're dumb enough to spread it.

 

[USA!USA!]

Yet Putin is the one that is welcoming peace talks and a potential cease fire. Go figure.

Please let us know when the military industrial complex war hawks want to entertain peace talks. Its clear right now that they couldn't give two shits about Ukrainian lives.

The paperwork was signed by both Russia and Ukraine. Boris Johnson flew in and prevented the peace deal from happening.

Bu buh muh Russian aggression!

Why doesnt Russia propose peace and get out of Ukraine? That would surely stop it.

 

[Osculater]

I'm baffled how Putin is still able to get normal Russians to enlist. Are they that propagandized that they have no idea?

I mean there are many stories of soldiers not even getting paid.

Aren't they getting paid with carrots and potatoes

 

[Copper Burner]

Why doesnt Russia propose peace and get out of Ukraine? That would surely stop it.

Unfortunately it would not.

 

[ferrisjso]

Ukraine is a sovereign nation. Boris Johnson never had the authority to accept or reject a peace deal on behalf of Ukraine. This is all bullshit and you should feel bad you're dumb enough to spread it.

Okay. I was responding to his question cause he seemed curious and I always reward that with well thought out answers.

Yeah he didn't have that authority. I will admit Johnson had some balls impersonating a US president like that. But the deal was signed he showed up and Ukraine pulled out. If that turns out to be untrue assessment of events I will gladly apologize for spreading falsehoods but I do not believe it is.

 

[Rational Poster]

Okay. I was responding to his question cause he seemed curious and I always reward that with well thought out answers.

Yeah he didn't have that authority. I will admit Johnson had some balls impersonating a US president like that. But the deal was signed he showed up and Ukraine pulled out. If that turns out to be untrue assessment of events I will gladly apologize for spreading falsehoods but I do not believe it is.

There was never a point in human history where any country other than Russia or Ukraine could offer or reject a peace deal. This is a fairy tale.

 

[Copper Burner]

There was never a point in human history where any country other than Russia or Ukraine could offer or reject a peace deal. This is a fairy tale.

It's a well know fact that Boris prevented a peace deal that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to. With sources. Are you a misinformation bot?

Official: Johnson Forced Kyiv To Refuse Russian Peace Deal

Russia was “ready to end the war if we took neutrality,” Ukraine’s former top negotiator confirmed, but Boris Johnson said, “let’s just fight.”

europeanconservative.com

West killed peace proposal to end Ukraine war, Russia supported negotiated settlement - Geopolitical Economy Report

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a negotiated settlement to end the war in April, but UK PM Boris Johnson intervened to stop the peace deal.

geopoliticaleconomy.com