International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[SandisLL]

Next reality about mobilisation in Ukraine.
Despite trolls posts propaganda thus far Ukr had mobilized only 27 y.o and older guys....
Also statistics are impacted because in territorial defense are a lot of local uncles.

While if you had criminal record you might escape from mobilisation if they are thinking that you might be aggressive etc....
Also you might be full time student regardless from age and then you had opportunity to avoid mobilisation.....
Ofc rich ppl doesn't have to fight .....
While younger lads usually were volunteers or border guards / policemans etc where you might get order to perform also other duties...

 

[SandisLL]

If about shitting on soviet era technique and ammo reality most likely is that Ukr managed to prevent Kiev in 3 days by using 4 USSR era howitzers and some couple of mortars...ro get Hostomel airport useless..Cabul 1979 didn't had happened.plus placing heavy duty trucks on runway etc...in 6 hours..
And next stuff was opening of wartime stockpiles in Kiev and issuing weapons to anyone willing to fight...
Westerners are sellers and Eaast is Empire should be approach doesn't help nor for Russia nor for West.

 

[Orgasmo]

Krynky village area is near river and smaller rivers..
To install there simple mobiks is impossible. Only real pros ( valuable asset ) might had chance to reach area IF lucky.
And russia used damn a lot of different drones all day and night.....plus installed a lot of good thermals and also ground radars and so on....poor lads had to cross big river, then smaller rivers while russis had reach range for 120 mm mortars and arty & drones...

If ukraine was willing to sacrifice lucky guys, real pros for political reason it is awful shame......reality might be painful woke up.

I've said for months that the Krynki beachhead was stupid, but people here act like it's D-Day landing. It's a tiny piece of land that Ukraine cannot resupply easily and cannot concentrate forces to punch through. It's stuck fighting a battle of attrition which heavily favors the Russians.

 

[Orgasmo]

How serious/real is this talk of Ukrainian-based Russian paramilitaries entering Russia?

If you're asking whether they're for real, yes they are. If the question is whether they will make a decisive difference, no they won't. They primarily harass border regions of Russia which ties up some Russian troops.

 

[SandisLL]

I've said for months that the Krynki beachhead was stupid, but people here act like it's D-Day landing. It's a tiny piece of land that Ukraine cannot resupply easily and cannot concentrate forces to punch through. It's stuck fighting a battle of attrition which heavily favors the Russians.

This actually is reality. Our colonel told that this is idiotism and he isn't YT specialist ....he is active special tasks forces officer...
Some respected admiral from western europe had told clown in the face how " beautiful " this shit is and this gentleman is person I want to see to be NATO general secretary....also [ ex] general Petr Pavel was even reluctant to comment any bare thing cos this " beautiful " operation....
Really we are shocked to see such " competence " level......it was horrible idiotism and waste of motivated and experienced hardcore professionals....
Sad reality.

 

[Cole train]

Sooo a french military report on ukr came out which has certain points worth adressing in my opinion, nothing new though, theres a paywall on article but some guy translated and content seems inline with everything else thats coming out. Can read whole thing in link, i will adress ones i find interesting

Also im not sure who this reporter is by ideology but internet comes up with nothing




"The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse [...] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".

Whos the genius in ukr/nato command who made a plan based on enemy morale? Fire him immediatly


"The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable"

I mentioned this back in 23 that whole recruitment process is a shitshow and guys were getting very little training, 3 weeks is nothing, while in 22 it was said donbas combat veterans and young western style trained officers were worth more than gold in stopping the invasion.Problem is they are gone now.


"The combativeness of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected," mentions a forward-looking report for the year 2024. "Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he's not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month," observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 "tactically destroyed" half of Kiev's 12 combat brigades"

-Once a gain recruiting problem, guys dont want to serve (whether this is right or wrong is another discussion)

The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events."

-Manpower issue fixed by rus compared to 2 years back

Also avdiivka losses for ukr estimated at 1000 a day btw

 

[PEB]

Sooo a french military report on ukr came out which has certain points worth adressing in my opinion, nothing new though, theres a paywall on article but some guy translated and content seems inline with everything else thats coming out. Can read whole thing in link, i will adress ones i find interesting

Also im not sure who this reporter is by ideology but internet comes up with nothing




"The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse [...] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".

Whos the genius in ukr/nato command who made a plan based on enemy morale? Fire him immediatly


"The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable"

I mentioned this back in 23 that whole recruitment process is a shitshow and guys were getting very little training, 3 weeks is nothing, while in 22 it was said donbas combat veterans and young western style trained officers were worth more than gold in stopping the invasion.Problem is they are gone now.


"The combativeness of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected," mentions a forward-looking report for the year 2024. "Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he's not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month," observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 "tactically destroyed" half of Kiev's 12 combat brigades"

-Once a gain recruiting problem, guys dont want to serve (whether this is right or wrong is another discussion)

The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events."

-Manpower issue fixed by rus compared to 2 years back

Also avdiivka losses for ukr estimated at 1000 a day btw

Russia manages their troupes better seriously? What crap is Arnaud smoking? He also very pro China based on his threads. He seems to post anything that shows Ukraine in trouble. Ukraine actually was able to slow Russian movement and Russia suffered some of the worst losses in the war. Ukraine has Russians fighting Russians in Russia and has successfully removed 15 percent of Russians oil production if not more.

 

[Cole train]

Russia manages their troupes better seriously? What crap is Arnaud smoking? He also very pro China based on his threads. He seems to post anything that shows Ukraine in trouble. Ukraine actually was able to slow Russian movement and Russia suffered some of the worst losses in the war. Ukraine has Russians fighting Russians in Russia and has successfully removed 15 percent of Russians oil production if not more.

Troop rotation was reported by ISW as well

Heres ukrainian newspaper talking about it

ISW explains how Russia manages to carry out planned rotations

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that Russian forces are able to carry out planned rotations due to their number throughout Ukraineâs east and the lack of pressure from Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[SandisLL]

If Zelensky administration will offer decent payment they might have endless supplies with mercenaries.. like Russia. Unless stuff offered will not be in Krinky souce slaugterhouse....

 

[SandisLL]

Krynky beauty.
By using small boats river had been crossed...usually 2-8 guys in one boat. And these were real pros not just mobiks...
Batch No1 in one day had managed to reach positions without losses. 20=20.
Next batch ....20...
5 bodybags and 10 300ies..
We have 5 bodybags and 10 300 ies.
5 ready to fight and had reached positions. Slava Ukraine.!

 

[SandisLL]

Sooo a french military report on ukr came out which has certain points worth adressing in my opinion, nothing new though, theres a paywall on article but some guy translated and content seems inline with everything else thats coming out. Can read whole thing in link, i will adress ones i find interesting

Also im not sure who this reporter is by ideology but internet comes up with nothing




"The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse [...] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".

Whos the genius in ukr/nato command who made a plan based on enemy morale? Fire him immediatly


"The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable"

I mentioned this back in 23 that whole recruitment process is a shitshow and guys were getting very little training, 3 weeks is nothing, while in 22 it was said donbas combat veterans and young western style trained officers were worth more than gold in stopping the invasion.Problem is they are gone now.


"The combativeness of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected," mentions a forward-looking report for the year 2024. "Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he's not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month," observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 "tactically destroyed" half of Kiev's 12 combat brigades"

-Once a gain recruiting problem, guys dont want to serve (whether this is right or wrong is another discussion)

The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events."

-Manpower issue fixed by rus compared to 2 years back

Also avdiivka losses for ukr estimated at 1000 a day btw

This is pure russian propaganda . And NATO till today didn't had bothered to care where Avdiivka is located.

Basically both sides obiviously had used huge mining in areas between Avdiivka and Donetsk....a lot of hardcore stuff with diligence . . almost 10 years in row.
Therefore 9 miles in 23 months now is portrayed as super big win and one blogger had commited suicide.
Ukr had abadoned S-200 site and coal coke plant and some added stuff built by coal miners and pro builders plus damn a lot of USSR era mines. The same about separatists....

How you think, will be this good if Finalnd will join Empire? Looks that this is solution you are thinking about and it is pragmatic point of thinking about future to thinj about. ..at least in theory level. Cos real life is real life. ..

 

[SandisLL]

I had posted in summer 2023 th that the kind of weapons and their ammount indicates that allies doesn't want Ukraine to win. It appeared sad reality.
Ukraine should negoitate with Putin on his terms and openly reject possible EU or NATO membership in future and reject any clownade like Budapesht. West and East had sold them to Russia long ago and only clowns can't see this.
Even worse: it isn't proxy war for West otherwise Ukr had been supplied quickly and more generously since beginning.. ..

 

[SandisLL]

For example the same HIMARS...
Excuses about training are valid IF fresh pupps are used.
If pros with exp to use Thocka, Uragan, Smerch.....maybe week.. for operators. Western weapons is easier to use....
So if " bad wolf " West wanted might had supplied some 40 launchers and at least 40 missiles with 165 km range in March 2022 th.....this reality.

 

[PEB]

Powerful ad by Vote Vets in huge support of Ukraine.

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

While I'm not Arestantovich etc to blame about all " bad West "....
Ukr supreme lawmaker in Rada ( Parliament ) are rolling about mobilisation law changes months in row and the same about funding for fortifications.....
Maybe best solution might be to mobilize these experts and sent to frontline....more understanding will appear rather than after months long discussions?

 

[SandisLL]

Republicans are different...
Some republicans in Senate and House had advised in 2022 th to send more weapons to Ukr....than U.S had sent ..they were IRL cool for Ukr....
Some % of republicans are maga Mike wing....
And fortunately Mike will not run for POTUS position otherwise this had been worse for Ukr than Donald as POTUS....

 

[SandisLL]

BTW speaker in Mr Mike Johnson does have relatively huge impeachment risk.
This isn't just cos border bill and foreign assistance bills.
Some % of reps in House are frustrated that Mike Johnson had delayed damn a lot of other bills to be voted for....therefore maybe he will ask dems support in order to remain as House speaker....

And I understand U.S situation cos for us budget approval process too is painful hell each year....like torture chamber...

 

[Cuauhtemoc]

Sooo a french military report on ukr came out which has certain points worth adressing in my opinion, nothing new though, theres a paywall on article but some guy translated and content seems inline with everything else thats coming out. Can read whole thing in link, i will adress ones i find interesting

Also im not sure who this reporter is by ideology but internet comes up with nothing




"The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse [...] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".

Whos the genius in ukr/nato command who made a plan based on enemy morale? Fire him immediatly


"The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable"

I mentioned this back in 23 that whole recruitment process is a shitshow and guys were getting very little training, 3 weeks is nothing, while in 22 it was said donbas combat veterans and young western style trained officers were worth more than gold in stopping the invasion.Problem is they are gone now.


"The combativeness of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected," mentions a forward-looking report for the year 2024. "Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he's not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month," observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 "tactically destroyed" half of Kiev's 12 combat brigades"

-Once a gain recruiting problem, guys dont want to serve (whether this is right or wrong is another discussion)

The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events."

-Manpower issue fixed by rus compared to 2 years back

Also avdiivka losses for ukr estimated at 1000 a day btw

I think it boils down to:
While in theory both countries have enough manpower to fight for decades, it's easier for Russia to draw from its larger population. Tons of poor people in Russia that are willing to fight for a better salary.
Russia is able to produce or repurpose old soviet equipment at a faster pace than the West is able or willing to supply Ukraine. Despite Western equipment being superior.
Pitiful amounts such as 31 Abrams or 100 Leo 2 simply cannot cover the entire front line.
As crude as Russian training might be they're continually rolling out equipment with crews that can operate it to a degree.
Sanctions cause trouble to the Russian economy but they're mostly irrelevant to the short term manufacturing of military equipment because Russia is able to circumvent it due to its large oil and gold reserves.
Russian front line troops have inferior training compared to Western forces but they're similar to what Ukraine is able to provide.
Russian officers that deal with logistics, troop employment etc are professional and have been able to adapt.

 

[PEB]

Discharge partition forwarded by Rep. Miki Sherrill a Democrat an US combat veteran with democrats an non MAGA Republicans. They are confident they have the votes to bring the Ukraine funding bill to the house floor.

It looks like Hungary PM comments about Trump supercharged a few congress people forward. A lot more Republicans support this then Moscow Mike willing to admit.