International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V14

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I guess you can come up with whatever numbers that you want to...do you think it's possible UKR just wants a bigger army as watching Russia 's army continue to grow and need it to stop the Russian advance?
Huelensky also needs workforce behind frontlines ....to prepare fortifications etc....a lot of workforce.
 
Huelensky also needs workforce behind frontlines ....to prepare fortifications etc....a lot of workforce.

true story, UKR might as well forget about any offense unless it's low risk which is unlikely. Need manpower to build strong defensive lines the way Russia did when they knew offensive was coming.
Putler still needs to take back all annexed regions before he will even consider peace talks and I'm sure UKR knows this. Make Russia pay a huge price for every meter gained is what they need to do now.
 
Here is something I thought was interesting. A popular liberal youtube content producer did a fascinating report. The reporter went to a Trump supporters meeting an a surprising number seemed to support from a little to a lot supporting Ukraine. 99 percent supported Israel an about 55 to 65 percent supported Ukraine.

I thought it would be very hostile to Ukraine. I mean MSNBC paints a bleak picture for Ukraine making it sound like MAGA no fan of Ukraine. But hearing from MAGA hat wearing public they had very lucid commitments about Ukraine an Israel.

A surprising number blamed Putin for the war. An supported supplying arms to Ukraine. Only like 1 or 2 took the war to task. It really insightful that we are not as far apart as media likes to point out.


Found the video.
 
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Doing some internet maths of my own according to available reports from Western and Ukrainian sources. In June 2022, Ukraine reported it had 1 million troops in its army.


In December 2023, Zelensky said the army requested an additional half a million troops to keep its ranks filled.


It would be reasonable to assume ~350K casualties based on those numbers in a span of 1 year and 3 months.

Ukraine is suffering 700 killed or wounded a day on average.
Yeah but there was a draft going at that same time and a significant number of Ukrainians volunteered at the beginning of the war. Just the number of amputees would indicate that casualties are higher than 350k. Hard to get a good estimate on wounded but the overall losses are probably closer to half a million.
 
Anything that leads to unnecessary war is a bad thing.

The over-expansion of NATO makes the US less safe and costs us money without making the American people any safer.
Yes, but the overall point I think is true, that Russia could have chosen to not invade. It was not a critical threat to their security and there was no way Ukraine was getting into NATO before this. If Ukraine had deployed American ballistic missiles right up on Russia's border or if Ukraine had begun producing nukes I would buy that argument.

Overall though, Ukraine is not vital for Americans' security or prosperity, so I don't think it should have been a high priority for us at all.
 


20k a month to maintain effectiveness of existing brigades, which implies roughly 20k soldiers lost every month to death & injuries. This is month 22 of the conflict, 20k/month is 440k losses total, which is in the same ballpark as the 383k losses claimed by Sergei Shoigu in a recent press conference. This is a war where drones and artillery do the vast majority of the killing, Russia now has a significant quantitative & qualitative advantage in both. IMO these numbers are in the right ballpark, and that's why we now see old men and even women on the front line trenches.

It doesn’t imply that they’re losing 20k a month. They’ve started releasing people from service so those have to be replaced as well.
 

Russia's economy is paralyzed, and Putin's war machine survives on cannibalizing state-owned firms, Yale researchers say​


"Russia's economy is paralyzed, and its war machine survives by cannibalizing state-owned firms. That's according to Yale professors pushing back on commentary that Vladimir Putin is one 2023's big winners.
"We cannot fall into the trap of thinking that all is good for Putin, and we cannot jettison effective measures to pressure him."
Russia's economy is paralyzed, and its war machine survives on cannibalizing state-owned firms, according to two Yale researchers.

In an op-ed in Foreign Policy on Friday, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian sought to push back on recent commentary that cast President Vladimir Putin as one of 2023's big winners amid signs of economic resilience.

"We cannot fall into the trap of thinking that all is good for Putin, and we cannot jettison effective measures to pressure him," Sonnenfeld and Tian wrote, noting that transferring "worthless" expropriated assets from Western firms to Putin's cronies doesn't make Russia wealthier.

They also listed several other signs that Russia's economy has been reeling.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, at least 1 million Russians have fled to other countries, including top tech talent. That's contributed to a labor shortage that's nearing 5 million workers and has stoked high inflation.

Meanwhile, $253 billion in private capital left Russia between February 2022 and June 2023, Sonnenfeld and Tian said, citing the Russian central bank's own data.

In addition, Russia has lost access to Western technology and expertise that its companies relied on, while foreign direct investment has nearly completely dried up."


 
Yes, but the overall point I think is true, that Russia could have chosen to not invade. It was not a critical threat to their security and there was no way Ukraine was getting into NATO before this. If Ukraine had deployed American ballistic missiles right up on Russia's border or if Ukraine had begun producing nukes I would buy that argument.

Overall though, Ukraine is not vital for Americans' security or prosperity, so I don't think it should have been a high priority for us at all.
Its right on a border they've been invaded through 5 times. The US hasn't faced a land invasion, but if Mexico agreed to let China place bases in Mexico, we would be in Mexico City the next day, and I would see no problem with it.

It is a responsibility of government to respond to existential threats to the nation.
 
not really, and I also expect Russia to make small gains on a few fronts as they have the meat wagons in full throttle. Another meatwave attack in Avdiivka shows 1500 zombies run across an open field only to be intercepted by cluster munitions , PVD's and bradly's laying them to waste, one's who didnt run away tried to get in various holes and dugouts that wernt already plugged with dead bodies.
They have been doing this since mid Oct over and over with a few km of gains for their efforts.

and ukraine has been losing both territory and men power...
 
This is what the liberated city Marinka looks like now. I am happy the Russians saved it from all the evil nazis.

I am sure more cities cant wait to be liberated.

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Yes, but the overall point I think is true, that Russia could have chosen to not invade. It was not a critical threat to their security and there was no way Ukraine was getting into NATO before this. If Ukraine had deployed American ballistic missiles right up on Russia's border or if Ukraine had begun producing nukes I would buy that argument.

Overall though, Ukraine is not vital for Americans' security or prosperity, so I don't think it should have been a high priority for us at all.
America long ago had threw them under bus. They since 1994 th were delusional and dumb.

The stuff is that ofc U.S or Europe can't ban Zelensky, Yermak and co to talk about NATO and EU. Freedom of speech.

And there ofc west long ago had sold Ukraine.....
They just didn't had brains to get realpolitik.
__
Ukraine had sold heavy weapons to Russian Federation and de facto did deMilitarization with nice half empty Ukr MIC propaganda talks....
While in reality they had reduced number of MANPADS and SAM complexes they had in working condition.
They had dramatically reduced number of main battle tanks till level from ~ 4200 in 1992 th to lesser than 900 on paper in working condition in 2021 th.


More than this, I don't know why Zelensku talked about NATO after in November 2021 th had cried that west doesn't sell them heavy weapons and even MANPADS....

Didn't get clear signal?

Also ofc russian propagandists to earn paychecks still are posting here BS about even NATO bases in Ukr after such reality....

Ofc not to mention teritorial disputes Ukr had, plus additionally fiancially and politically unstable ....with separatist controlled area in Moldova as border. Add here Orban and others....

Clear: 0 chances about NATO or EU and Putin just should had to wait till next elections.
Cos if Ukr continued to ask for EU candidate status ...they should had to implement fiscal discipline and ....some standards plus a bit austerity measures.
After this Zelensky had 0 chances to be re elected IF he had continued.
 
This is what the liberated city Marinka looks like now. I am happy the Russians saved it from all the evil nazis.

I am sure more cities cant wait to be liberated.

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Everyone with a bit brains in russia does knoed that deNazification ....is meaning to install pro Kremlin oriented government ...something like Lukashenko No2.
Moldova too is on the table as next meal.

Protection of " russian speakers " in Luhansk and Donetsk oblastjs separatists controlled areas ....in reality appeared beautiful oppurtunity for them to be used in trenches...and beautiful civilian life with unemployment % hike.
 
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Its right on a border they've been invaded through 5 times. The US hasn't faced a land invasion, but if Mexico agreed to let China place bases in Mexico, we would be in Mexico City the next day, and I would see no problem with it.

It is a responsibility of government to respond to existential threats to the nation.

Glad you've come around to admitting your fuhrer's actual plan.

Which is why all calls to cede territory to russia now, are dishonest and cowardly. In order to close those gaps, Putin needs to control not only ALL of Ukraine; but Poland, Lithuania, Georgia (already done), Estonia, Moldova, Latvia, Uzbekistan, and parts of Kazakstan.

Giving him Crimea and the Donbas don't achieve these goals. So why would Putin stop there? By your own admission, he's justified in a continued invasion because the "existential threat" is still there.

And ignoring the idiocy of claiming that modern Ukraine posed an existential threat of invading Russia, who else around the world gets to use such shitty logic? Can Germany make the same claim and invade Poland tomorrow? Can Greece fire missiles across the Bosphorus next week? If not, explain your hypocrisy.
 
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