It seems like you think the breakthrough isn't really a "breakthrough" in the sense that, for some reason, the Ukrainians are going to stop right there in their tracks. Over the last several months, they've made slow but inexorable progress toward exactly this: getting through the defensive line. It's not like this is the end all be all of moments, but I'm truly scratching my head that it would get downplayed.
Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armored vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. Ukraine is not moving that far south this year or next year. A very small section of the 600-mile front.
When are abrams getting there? Feel like it’s been a long time since I heard about those: the f16 feels like a pipe dream.
That's not exactly accurate. I brought up earlier -and very clearly imo- the issue of there being a massive difference between the white, yellow, and other side of the yellow lines in the initial image you posted. My whole point was that it was misleading the even suggest equivalence between the terrain between the white and yellow, and between the yellow and the circled region, or honestly anywhere else for that matter. I don't think it was unreasonable of me to point out that the image was misleading due to that equivalency, explicit or implicit. But back to the first part of this post, nobody i'm aware of is arguing that penetrating fortified defensive lines doesn't cause all manner of attrition; my point about that now is that Ukraine doesn't have a choice, so there's no reason think it is going to prevent them from continuing to try what they are trying to the best of their ability. That have to try and drive Russia out no matter the cost, because the alternative is that Russia destroys them no matter the cost (that is unless Putin changes his mind for some reason, which seems unlikely). We can certainly discuss how badly Ukraine is being hurt in this offensive, and you could try and make a case that Ukraine is rendering itself unable to continue fighting, but that ultimately would arrive at the same place as if they didn't fight back at all. Moot.
This week I believe , F-16's are real and training is already ongoing as it takes many months, however as for getting the planes wont be a problem as Denmark and Netherlands send over 60 ....just imagine how many more will be supplied...another big piece in the puzzle.
I’d agree the quantity supplied isn’t enough to change the war but having 31 fresh tanks is better than have none. They may be able to use them in the rear as support and free up other tanks to move forward.
If they keep fucking up crimea from a far it’s going to be a problem for Russia. Plus if they start losing I’m sure they’ll just turn whatever long range stuff they have left and hit Moscow.
After the war, I really don't know how they will rebuild the economy with fertility now at .9. What to do? Immigration?
I think that it's almost impossible to completely break through the Russian lines with the current capabilities of the AFU. Russia can simply build new defensive lines WWI style. Yes, Russia is also suffering heavy losses, but they will not be defeated that way.
I read that the US has thousands of Abrams tanks it isn't using. Maybe the bottleneck is maintainance or parts or something but the number provided seems very small, if in fact the intentions of the government are what they say. I imagine tank maintenance and training is orders of magnitude easier that jet fighters- kind of a strange situation.
