International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V13

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I know exactly how to end that war. Inform Putin and the world the USA is going to go all in on fossil fuel production to dump the price completely, or Russia can be Russia, Ukraine autonomous, but cannot join NATO, and Donbass in the same status as Ukraine. Let the people of the region decide from there.


by the looks of it, they will be able to join nato either on a minior level or fully.


They just have to deal with shitty ass hungry
 

one thing this war has proven is that, contrary to every modern military theory since ww2, old school static defenses still is a thing. And that tacticians and weapon designers really has overlooked it completely.

Who would have thought in 2020 that large scale modern warfare in europe would regress to WW1 defensive strategies with bunkers and vast trench networks behind ww2 style anti-tank obstacles and minefields.
 
Ukrainian forces have broken through in Verbove, top general says

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BAKHMUT DISTRICT, UKRAINE - SEPTEMBER 16: The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade 'Edelveys' fire from soviet artillery "D-30", in the Bakhmut District, Donetsk Region on September 16, 2023 in the Bakhmut District, Ukraine. Although central Bakhmut was captured by Russian forces in May, Ukrainian forces are still intent on retaking the city, following their recent capture of Andriivka and Klishchiivka to the south. (Photo by Libkos/Getty Images)
Libkos/Getty Images
CNN —
The general leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front line says his forces have broken through in Verbove – and predicts an even bigger breakthrough to come.

“On the left flank [near Verbove] we have a breakthrough and we continue to advance further,” Oleksandr Tarnavsky told CNN Senior International Correspondent Frederik Pleitgen during an interview on Friday, though he conceded his troops were moving slower than anticipated.

“Not as fast as it was expected, not like in the movies about the Second World War,” he said. “The main thing is not to lose this initiative (that we have). And, well, not to lose it in practice, with actions.”


The general’s claim is the latest indication by Ukrainian officials that inroads are being made on the southern front in the war with Russia.

Ukrainian forces claimed in recent weeks to have penetrated the “first line” of Russian strongholds in the Zaporizhzia region, in a sign that Kyiv was edging closer to Moscow’s sprawling network of fortified trenches along the southern front.

Russian-appointed officials in occupied Zaporizhzhia have given a different picture of the fighting. CNN is unable to verify the battlefield reports of either side. However, open-source analysis of available video suggests that some Ukrainian units have crossed through an important line of Russian defenses near the village of Verbove.


Ukraine’s long-term goal is to break Russia’s “land bridge,” which links territory it holds in the east with annexed Crimea.

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Ukrainian servicemen conduct a reconnaissance mission on September 7.
Stringer/Reuters
At the beginning of September Ukrainian forces said they had taken the village of Robotyne and were pushing east toward the village of Novoprokopivka. Soldiers said they expected battles for control of high ground to the south and east of the village as they approached the next layer of Russian defenses. Verbove is a few miles east from Robotyne.

However, Tarnavsky told CNN he believed the big breakthrough of the counteroffensive would be if Ukraine could take Tokmak, a strategic hub for Russia, which is its first major target in its fight in the south.

CNN reported earlier this week that the Ukrainian forces were still some 20 kilometers from Tokmak, struggling to break through the multiple layers of Russian defenses.

“I believe yes [there will be a big breakthrough],” Tarnavsky said. “I think it will happen after Tokmak. At the moment (the Russians) are relying on the depth of their defensive line there.”

Rather than the ‘Surovikin line’ – a defensive line built on the orders of former General Sergey Surovikin, while he was in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine – Tarnavsky says the bigger issues are the “crossroads, tree lines and minefields between the tree lines.”

“[There’s] a combination of small harmful enemy defense groups that currently are planted very precisely and competently,” he said. “But the actions of our fighters force them to slowly pull back when they face our assault squads.”

The general conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.

“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”

‘Not as fast as expected’
Despite conceding the advance wasn’t going as “fast as expected,” Tarnavsky said winter would not slow down the counteroffensive.

Intense rains in the fall can make the ground in Ukraine soggy and make movement with heavy machinery, like tanks, more difficult, but Tarnavsky says Ukraine’s forces move in small groups, mostly on foot.

“The weather can be a serious obstacle during advance, but considering how we move forward, mostly without vehicles, I don’t think [the weather] will heavily influence the counteroffensive,” Tarnavsky told Pleitgen in the interview.

“Right now, neither the enemy nor us uses large formations, companies, battalions or brigades. We use assault squads, groups of 10 to 15 men,” he explained. “They conduct titanic work of concentrating enemy fire on them and using all the means they have to use to survive.”

One of the reasons for the slow advance, the general said, was the fact that Russia had been able to learn some lessons from other Ukrainian offensives.

“The Russians are learning quite fast, as they don’t have any other choice. If they don’t learn, they will be defeated sooner,” he explained. “I wouldn’t say they are adapting to our actions, as we also change our tactics.”

He said Ukraine had also been adapting to using Western equipment, as well as Western tactics.

When asked about rising resistance in the West to continuing weapons supplies to Ukraine, especially in the US, where some have voiced doubt about Kyiv’s chances of success, Tarnavsky said he respected their view.

“Let it be the opinion of the skeptics. It’s not a competition and we don’t have a choice,” he said. “I understand somebody may have imagined large scale counteroffensive operations. But times are changing, enemy tactics are changing, weapons change.”

“We have one goal – liberation of our territories. However hard it is we will keep on working. And I want to thank even the skeptics, their criticism also influences our task’s success,” he said.

He thanked Ukraine’s Western allies for their continuous support and pledged to treat the tanks and armored vehicles they have supplied with great care.

- Source: CNN " data-fave-thumbnails="{"big": { "uri": "https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images...sea-fleet-vpx.jpg?c=16x9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill" }, "small": { "uri": "https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images...sea-fleet-vpx.jpg?c=16x9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill" } }" data-vr-video="" data-show-html=" The Lead " data-byline-html="" data-check-event-based-preview="" data-network-id="" data-details="">


Wagner, ‘here and there’
During the interview, the general also commented on the current state of the mercenary group Wagner.

He said Wagner fighters still pop up “here and there” on the front line following the death of the group’s former boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash last month after leading a failed insurrection that posed the biggest threat to the rule of Russian President Vladimir Putin in decades.

A deal struck to de-escalate the crisis was supposed to have sent Prigozhin and his fighters to neighboring Belarus, but there have been reports of Wagner fighters redeploying to Kherson.

Asked about those reports, Tarnavsky said, “In some directions, I can’t say whether it’s the Kherson region, or our direction, or somewhere else, they do pop up. The fact is that their badges appear here and there – that’s been constant.”

Tarnavsky went on to say his men usually speculated about the presence of Wagner whenever their enemy started behaving more competently.

“We suspect the presence of Wagner if we see the deterrence of our offensive forces with the involvement of a category of military personnel who perform these tasks in a more interesting (more non-standard) way,” he explained. “This makes one think: “Maybe it’s Wagner has showed up?”“

“But there is no such unit in my area of the front today,” he added. “Regarding Kherson direction – I can’t say.”

Ukraine recently launched a missile attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, in the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed by Moscow’s forces in 2014.

Tarnavsky told CNN that strikes on Crimea are important for the success of Kyiv’s counteroffensive.

“The success of offensive operations is not only about destroying the enemy in front of you, it’s also about destroying places of concentration of equipment, personnel and especially destroying the command centers,” he said, adding that it can create a “a mess on the battlefield.”

The general added striking Crimea was especially important as a rallying cry for Ukrainian forces and to boost morale.

“It helps us but it also gives us hope for the future,” he said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/...-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html

Hope this is a legit "breakthrough" and they manage to exploit it, still a long way to go.
Interesting bit about how the commander himself atleast isn't too worried about the weather in regards to stalling out the offensive.
 
I know exactly how to end that war. Inform Putin and the world the USA is going to go all in on fossil fuel production to dump the price completely, or Russia can be Russia, Ukraine autonomous, but cannot join NATO, and Donbass in the same status as Ukraine. Let the people of the region decide from there.
Well the Russians have already killed, deported or kidnapped a lot of the Ukrainian supporters in Donbas so it’s a little late for that
 
my guess is the effects of targeting storage depots and refining facilities these past months, plus the vehicles to move them .
Yep, attacking fuel trucks has worked out as the army has had to resort to using civilian trucks which in turn lead to a shortage in that area. Not to mention the amount of refining facilities as well, UKR playing the long game and it’s working out.
 
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one thing this war has proven is that, contrary to every modern military theory since ww2, old school static defenses still is a thing. And that tacticians and weapon designers really has overlooked it completely.

Who would have thought in 2020 that large scale modern warfare in europe would regress to WW1 defensive strategies with bunkers and vast trench networks behind ww2 style anti-tank obstacles and minefields.
Some people kind of expected that. Static defenses propped up by ATGMs, minefields and artillery are really hard to breach. Israel had all kinds of trouble against Egypt in 73, while Syria had trouble against somewhat lightly armed militants in their civil war, when these militants were able to hold cities and fill them with IEDs and ATGMs.
People on the internet would scream about lack of "combined arms" or "infantry support", but the truth is that there isn't much you can do as supporting infantry against one guy hiding 4km away with a TOW, Kornet or Javelin. He is outside of small arms fire and pretty hard to spot with thermals even.
Many guys who had experience in Iraq or Afghanistan were missing the obvious. In these countries the US had an overwhelming advantage in artillery, armor, aircraft and ability to concentrate force. You could send a convoy and while from time to time a vehicle would get disabled by ATGMs you could them counterattack with a JDAM or hellfire missile against a single insurgent. A luxury Syria didn't have and Ukraine will never have either.
You can suppress infantry with artillery but when your enemy has artillery of his own it becomes a counterbattery exercise.
The same applies to minefields, MICLICs work perfectly to clear a small field against a bunch of militants or an inferior army that has no hope of striking back, but clearing a small path for your troops to move in will also attract the enemy who will them saturate troops moving there with artillery, they will send in helicopters armed with missiles and quickly move a bunch of missile armed infantry to blow up armor there. They may even use artillery dispersed mines to mine the path you just cleared.
In other words, since WW2, there were very few examples of near peer enemies breaking through static defenses with ease. Usually one side had massive military superiority, particularly air supremacy or you had somewhat of a stalemate.
That applies to both sides, BTW, Russia lost a thousand tanks to ATGMs and artillery while the Ukraine counter offensive armored thrusts have been lackluster at best.

Giving aircraft such as the F-16 could help Ukraine a bit but Russia has very strong air defenses against conventional craft and a pretty big airforce of their own. Not to mention that unlike the US, Ukraine would be flying without nearly as much support, with pilots that wouldn't have much experience (American pilots have years of experiece and thousand of flight hours on a given platform) and from distant airfields to avoid being destroyed on the ground.
 
I know exactly how to end that war. Inform Putin and the world the USA is going to go all in on fossil fuel production to dump the price completely, or Russia can be Russia, Ukraine autonomous, but cannot join NATO, and Donbass in the same status as Ukraine. Let the people of the region decide from there.

Your logic is flawed and here's why.

The USA (and any nation that can) is moving away from fossil fuels slowly but surely.

It's Ukraine's decision seek NATO membership and no one else's.

If Ukraine wants to keep the Donbass (even by force), then it's up to Ukraine and no one else.

Civil wars do happen. Plenty of battle sites here in Ga. to testify to that fact.
 
Yep, stacking fuel trucks has worked out as the army has had to resort to using civilian trucks which in turn lead to a shortage in that area. Not to mention the amount of refining facilities as well, UKR playing the long game and it’s working out.

The Russian meatwall tactics at Bakhmut crippled their own invasion by draining manpower and supplies.
 
is this not a NYT article? What alternative facts did I say? Is Poland not cutting the supply?


When they say new weapons it's literal.

They mean the new weapons they're buying for themselves from South Korea and the US, not the support they're already providing.

If anything Poland will increase support as they upgrade their military with new weapon systems over the coming years.
 


It seems like the Russian air defense systems are just getting pounded. Not totally overwhelmed across the board, but broken down in a much more targeted way. I don't know anything about this stuff or what Russia could do to improve their situation, but it sounds like getting these new missiles from us is going to make the situation even more dire. I don't know that we've had a modern war within recent memory that showed such dramatic improvements and innovations on the fly. Ukraine has turned themselves into this incredible jack of all trades fighting force that uses technology and whatever random shit they can find from every other military out there. It's wild.
 
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