International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V13

[Rational Poster]

IMO just getting in artillery range of the main road to Crimea won't do much. You can't park your artillery pieces right on the front line- and just lobbing occasional shells won't do much either. Trucks move and unless the road becomes unusable or there is so much fire that they don't dare drive on it its not going to make a difference. If they were ten miles away? Maybe. Not just at the edge of range though. Just my opinion.

I mean we're not talking about some USSR dumb fire artillery.

We're talking about state of the art HIMARs with guided missiles and drone surveillance target acquisition and corrections. If you are in range, you are hitting the target.

 

[San Marino]

If Russia wins, there will be no need for western help in reconstruction. Because then it will be rebuilding Russian territory, and no financial help will be necessary because sanctions don't work, and the ruble is stronger than ever.

So, Ukrainian civilians only matter if they are aligned with the west? Go it!
If Russia wins in Ukraine, those civilians no longer matter. No longer our (western) problem.
People are people are they not? Does human life only matter when it is influenced by the West?
Women and children to be forgotten as a Russian problem. Their fate no longer a western concern.

 

[Rational Poster]

Their old MiGs (however few they have) I'm assuming can't do this because the radar sucks?

Yeah, most Russian aircraft have bad radars even compared to F-16.

Many smaller countries around the world use or have used F16s in the same role that America uses more dedicated AWACs aircraft because the radar is just more powerful than anything they can produce domestically.

 

[Rational Poster]

Poland have said they won't supply Ukraine over grain deal issues.

They seem to be unhappy about Ukrainian grain undermining prices in central Europe.

How long it lasts for, I don't know.

Obviously Poland has supplied a great deal for a country of their size but I feel this will likely get smoothed out with time and I'm sure every other country on earth can pick up the slack on any temporary shortfalls. Not like their reluctance is about a weariness, but it's more about legitimate political grievances with Ukraine and their own security concerns being on Russia's list of places to conquer eventually.

The Nordic countries on their own are talking about giving like 60+ F-16s atm.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

Obviously Poland has supplied a great deal for a country of their size but I feel this will likely get smoothed out with time and I'm sure every other country on earth can pick up the slack on any temporary shortfalls. Not like their reluctance is about a weariness, but it's more about legitimate political grievances with Ukraine and their own security concerns being on Russia's list of places to conquer eventually.

The Nordic countries on their own are talking about giving like 60+ F-16s atm.

All true, but there is a conceivable political climate where some support stops - and these things can easily snowball.

Likely this particular Polish issue is temporary, as you say, and limited to a specific section of Europe.

But who knows going forward.

Ukraine has a real tightrope to walk constantly.

 

[Blayt7hh]

You do you homie.

He just came in here to let us know he was too cool for school

 

[Rational Poster]

All true, but there is a conceivable political climate where some support stops - and these things can easily snowball.

Likely this particular Polish issue is temporary, as you say, and limited to a specific section of Europe.

But who knows going forward.

Ukraine has a real tightrope to walk constantly.

I don't think it's a real concern for Ukraine for some years to come as most of the major countries have pledged to support for years already.

 

[Blayt7hh]

I don't think it's a real concern for Ukraine for some years to come as most of the major countries have pledged to support for years already.

US aid really could get turned off after the next election though. We have a Conservative Party in the middle of an identity crisis that are rooting for the dictator to stomp out the fledgling democracy. Something I would not have thought would happen 20 years ago.

 

[Rational Poster]

US aid really could get turned off after the next election though. We have a Conservative Party in the middle of an identity crisis that are rooting for the dictator to stomp out the fledgling democracy. Something I would not have thought would happen 20 years ago.

Nah, there's some jokers in the House, but they're a minority there. Senate GOP are still the same hawks.

Even if somehow Trump wins, we saw in his impeachment he's not allowed to withhold aid approved by Congress.

 

[Strychnine]

He just came in here to let us know he was too cool for school

My wife is from the Philippines and I let her know about everything that's big going on there when I find out about it. I'd never just go "meh" to news from her country of origin. But that's just me.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

Nah, there's some jokers in the House, but they're a minority there. Senate GOP are still the same hawks.

Even if somehow Trump wins, we saw in his impeachment he's not allowed to withhold aid approved by Congress.

Agreed with this, there are only fringe Republicans saying stuff like 'stop sending Ukraine money', it's not a serious policy issue, they won't stop it.

It's just noise aimed at distracting voters who lean in favour of Russia, pretending they're going to make a difference.

Republican-led USA will still completely support Ukraine.

 

[Denter]

Yeah, most Russian aircraft have bad radars even compared to F-16.

Many smaller countries around the world use or have used F16s in the same role that America uses more dedicated AWACs aircraft because the radar is just more powerful than anything they can produce domestically.

I think you are probably right, but it could get very dangerous for the pilots. I read about this when it happened:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/london...-and-russian-air-to-air-technology?format=amp

In late October a Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 Flanker, Soviet-era fighter, was shot down by a long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) – the R-37M. This is not the first Ukrainian aircraft to be shot down since Russia’s invasion commenced in February, but it is nevertheless a significant feat for the Russian Air Force because the R-37M took down the Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 from a range of 217km (about 140 miles).

But the attack helicopters would definitely go away. It seems their max range to engage tanks and the like is 5-6 miles.

 

[Rational Poster]

I think you are probably right, but it could get very dangerous for the pilots. I read about this when it happened:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/londonpolitica.com/euroasia/how-do-nato-and-the-west-compare-with-chinese-and-russian-air-to-air-technology?format=amp



But the attack helicopters would definitely go away. It seems their max range to engage tanks and the like is 5-6 miles.

I mean it's always going to be a dangerous job, but at least the Russians will have to operate under the same conditions going forward. Missiles will be coming right back at them from similar ranges.

 

[Cid]

By the time F-16's are in action, it will be next year. They're just starting to train on them. That's way too far down the line for it to make any difference right now.

It's critical that Ukraine makes some substantial gains in the next month before the cold sets in or military aid might dry up. If that happens, they're fucked.

Next year is 3 months away.

I don't think it's critical to military aid that they make substantial ground this year. I think the aid rolls in next year regardless.

 

[Blayt7hh]

My wife is from the Philippines and I let her know about everything that's big going on there when I find out about it. I'd never just go "meh" to news from her country of origin. But that's just me.

Yeah well he doesn’t seem to think very highly of women so it’s not that big a surprise. Notice how he’s like”she owns a house there” and not “she has family and friends there”

 

[SandisLL]

Obviously Poland has supplied a great deal for a country of their size but I feel this will likely get smoothed out with time and I'm sure every other country on earth can pick up the slack on any temporary shortfalls. Not like their reluctance is about a weariness, but it's more about legitimate political grievances with Ukraine and their own security concerns being on Russia's list of places to conquer eventually.

The Nordic countries on their own are talking about giving like 60+ F-16s atm.

Austin and Co & Urzula will not allow them to deplete their wartime stockpile for obivious....and pretty technical military reasons.

Also yes, they does allow Ukr grain transit....
While due to law then they doesn't ask for EU type quality certs and such grain is called technical grain.
Shadow businesses might sell this in Poland and with this also to reduce jobs for ukrainians working in Poland.

Also yes, here is BIG problem with Bandera and banderomobiles worshiping in Ukraine.

While Bandera never was Nazi and had 0 impact in central and eastern Ukraine, he was active in Poland and Western Ukraine. He was propagandist with idea about independent Ukraine.
Good pole is died pole. Stepan Bandera ...before Hitler took power he already had such slogan.
Hated slovaks and poles.

 

[Rholk]

No idea if this is legit, these POW vids should always be taken with a grain of salt imo.


Tldr: Wagner medic talks about deserting recruits beeing blown up bit by bit so the medics could get some real life training

 

[SandisLL]

All true, but there is a conceivable political climate where some support stops - and these things can easily snowball.

Likely this particular Polish issue is temporary, as you say, and limited to a specific section of Europe.

But who knows going forward.

Ukraine has a real tightrope to walk constantly.

Well, not only due to location Poland is important for Ukraine.
I guess Mr Zelensky had forget reality: Poland had supplied them a lot of soviet weapons models and ....vuala, does have spare parts for them.
Also they are capable to manufacture USSR caliber ammunition....and to repair these USSR era tanks ukr does have.

Here western countries can't replace supposedly " not important " and " poor " countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria....

Mr Zelensky isn't good for Ukraine at all if he is thinking that might afford to bully neighbours and friends.
U.S and U.K cos mercantile reasons will not go against Poland to allow Zelensky to play Tzar vs Poland.

 

[SandisLL]

If North Korea really will supply Russia ammunition I think situation for Ukr will be bad.
I don't agree with Arestovich YT version that NK might supply approx 2m 152 mm shells.

I think that NK might supply more and also 122 mm ammo for artillery, 122 mm missiles for Grad and 120 mm ammo for USSR model mortars plus a lot of different mines.

If this will happen, appropiate response should be to send Ukr ammo with napalm, to sign re export permits for cluster ammo manufactured in europe during Cold War etc....

 

[GhostZ06]

Yeah, most Russian aircraft have bad radars even compared to F-16.

Many smaller countries around the world use or have used F16s in the same role that America uses more dedicated AWACs aircraft because the radar is just more powerful than anything they can produce domestically.

Depends which ones

Su-30SM, mig-31, Su-35S are superior.


https://www.f-16.net/f-16_versions_article2.html

youll have to really dig to figure out which ones are spec'd. None are gonna be Block52s that im aware of, i know some will have SNIPER targeting pods and Aim-9X/IRST capablities, annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnddd aim120D