Movies READY PLAYER ONE v.2 (Dragonlord's Review and Alterations)

[Guestx]

Schroeds is the GD man when it comes to BO analyses. Even his funk is algebraic.

I'd be curious to see him break this down then because I'm not sure how deep the analysis can go beyond "this is how much the film has made" and "this is how much industry insiders said it would need to make to be profitable."

It's not like the actual line-by-line budget for the film has been released.

 

[JBSchroeds]

I will let my trusted box office expert weigh in on this.

@JBSchroeds Do you consider Ready Player One a financial success?

Hadn't really been paying attention to it. Let me look it up.

...
...
Woof. Domestically that's a big fat failure. The weekend retentions on week 2-4 aren't really bad. I'm surprised to see week 3 worse off than week 2, but it opened so flat that I guess it didn't have as far to fall as most blockbusters. Weekend five loss was ugly, but the reality of that is Avengers came around and ate everybody's lunch (seriously, go look at the full weekend chart: virtually everything in the top twenty had a -50% to -75% drop). At this point RPO can't expect a final domestic much more than $145mil, and with A:IW beating the shit out of everybody it might barely limp past $140.

The biggest factor in the final analysis is international. It's done over $200mil in China and an additional $200+ mil in other countries. So WB's distribution deal with China is going to make-or-break this movie. At an estimated budget of $175mil it's going to be a close call.

Yeah, this is new to me.

Is he actually an industry guy or just fascinated by the numbers?

Just like the numbers. My education is in mechanical engineering.

I'd be curious to see him break this down then because I'm not sure how deep the analysis can go beyond "this is how much the film has made" and "this is how much industry insiders said it would need to make to be profitable."

It's not like the actual line-by-line budget for the film has been released.

You're right there there's a definite limit to what you can say about how much a film makes because so much of the pertinent information is never released. But there are some general guidelines you can go by.

• A studio will usually spend an additional 30%-80% of the film's budget on advertising.
• Studios usually get a larger percentage of the opening weekend than they do the rest of the run. The deals vary but a good estimate is they receive about 50% of the domestic total
• International is an absolute bear to try and factor in. A film is released in so many counties and many will have their own distribution deal. In general studios receive a smaller portion of the international total than domestic with 30% being a decent guess.
• Then there's the miscellaneous accounting. Stuff like tax breaks, product placements, tie-ins, etc. All of these offset the cost of making the film or advertising. This is almost impossible to quantify. I usually just slap a 20% on it and call it a day.

If we do that breakdown for RPO's estimated final tally of ~$140mil domestic and ~$430mil international it gives a loss of -$33.6mil. Which sounds terrible but there's so much guessing going on that anything within that range is going to be a toss-up. For example, if they have greater misc. offsets and a sweet international deal then it could swing that to $20mil profit. We just don't know for sure. The best we can really do is say this: if it does end up being profitable, it's not going to be by much, and that's a huge disappointment given the director and the amount invested.

 

[Dragonlordxxxxx]

Hadn't really been paying attention to it. Let me look it up.

...
...
Woof. Domestically that's a big fat failure. The weekend retentions on week 2-4 aren't really bad. I'm surprised to see week 3 worse off than week 2, but it opened so flat that I guess it didn't have as far to fall as most blockbusters. Weekend five loss was ugly, but the reality of that is Avengers came around and ate everybody's lunch (seriously, go look at the full weekend chart: virtually everything in the top twenty had a -50% to -75% drop). At this point RPO can't expect a final domestic much more than $145mil, and with A:IW beating the shit out of everybody it might barely limp past $140.

The biggest factor in the final analysis is international. It's done over $200mil in China and an additional $200+ mil in other countries. So WB's distribution deal with China is going to make-or-break this movie. At an estimated budget of $175mil it's going to be a close call.


Just like the numbers. My education is in mechanical engineering.

You're right there there's a definite limit to what you can say about how much a film makes because so much of the pertinent information is never released. But there are some general guidelines you can go by.

• A studio will usually spend an additional 30%-80% of the film's budget on advertising.
• Studios usually get a larger percentage of the opening weekend than they do the rest of the run. The deals vary but a good estimate is they receive about 50% of the domestic total
• International is an absolute bear to try and factor in. A film is released in so many counties and many will have their own distribution deal. In general studios receive a smaller portion of the international total than domestic with 30% being a decent guess.
• Then there's the miscellaneous accounting. Stuff like tax breaks, product placements, tie-ins, etc. All of these offset the cost of making the film or advertising. This is almost impossible to quantify. I usually just slap a 20% on it and call it a day.

If we do that breakdown for RPO's estimated final tally of ~$140mil domestic and ~$430mil international it gives a loss of -$33.6mil. Which sounds terrible but there's so much guessing going on that anything within that range is going to be a toss-up. For example, if they have greater misc. offsets and a sweet international deal then it could swing that to $20mil profit. We just don't know for sure. The best we can really do is say this: if it does end up being profitable, it's not going to be by much, and that's a huge disappointment given the director and the amount invested.

<[analyzed}>

 

[chickenluver]

$175 million budget plus $150 million on marketing, so $325 million to release this movie.

US box office total is $130 million. Studio makes about 60% of that, $78 million.

Foreign box office total excluding China is $207 million. Studio makes about 50% of that, $100 million.

Chinese box office total is coincidentally also $207 million. Studio makes about 10% of that, $20 million.

Total of roughly $300 million dollars earned for the studio. Subtract $325 million and the studio is currently out by $25 million.

I'm officially labeling Ready Player One a Box Office Disappointment.

 

[Dragonlordxxxxx]

if it does end up being profitable, it's not going to be by much, and that's a huge disappointment given the director and the amount invested.

So I wasn't far off with my estimates. Well, hopefully it'll have more legs in the international market.

60% chance it will barely break even after its worldwide theatrical run...

 

[JBSchroeds]

So I wasn't far off with my estimates. Well, hopefully it'll have more legs in the international market.

As far as I can see it's already opened it all the major markets and films generally play for shorter periods internationally than they do domestically (for example, SW:TLJ was only open in China for four weeks vs 18 in the US). Last weekend the international total was down to $23mil and so far this weekend's coming in at $8mil. I think some of that is slow reporting of the numbers, but even then I don't think it'll finish more than $460mil international.

 

[Guestx]

The best we can really do is say this: if it does end up being profitable, it's not going to be by much, and that's a huge disappointment given the director and the amount invested.

So I wasn't far off with my estimates. Well, hopefully it'll have more legs in the international market.

This writer's guess is that the film needs between $420 and $500M globally to become profitable:

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/23...-one-needs-to-make-to-be-a-box-office-success

If that's the case, then it's already there.

This article is already declaring it a box office success:

https://screenrant.com/ready-player-one-box-office-domestic-worldwide/

I understandi they're just industry people trying to piece it together. You disagree with their conclusions, JB?

 

[Dragonlordxxxxx]

As far as I can see it's already opened it all the major markets and films generally play for shorter periods internationally than they do domestically (for example, SW:TLJ was only open in China for four weeks vs 18 in the US). Last weekend the international total was down to $23mil and so far this weekend's coming in at $8mil. I think some of that is slow reporting of the numbers, but even then I don't think it'll finish more than $460mil international.

Well, thanks for everything, JB.

 

[TheRuthlessOne]

Seems like a movie really needs to make a lot of money to be successful

 

[Guestx]

Seems like a movie really needs to make a lot of money to be successful

Yeah, especially when you consider that the home video market has changed a lot as well and studios aren't making what they used to on home video rentals and sales.

 

[chickenluver]

Seems like a movie really needs to make a lot of money to be successful

All depends on what they spend to make it.

Three Billboards from last year made $158 million on a $12 million budget.

Justice League made $658 million on a $300 million.

 

[Dragonlordxxxxx]

Yeah, it's not a flop but "success" might be a bit embellished.

 

[JBSchroeds]

This writer's guess is that the film needs between $420 and $500M globally to become profitable:

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/23...-one-needs-to-make-to-be-a-box-office-success

If that's the case, then it's already there.

This article is already declaring it a box office success:

https://screenrant.com/ready-player-one-box-office-domestic-worldwide/

I understandi they're just industry people trying to piece it together. You disagree with their conclusions, JB?

There's a near 100% chance that, as industry writers, they have access to more information than I do. The first article seems reasonable enough, but the second one is full of shit. It talks about the 2x budget rule-of-thumb for breaking even which hasn't been true in probably a decade. And it talks about how it's one of Spielberg's biggest earners while intentionally ignoring inflation. And it talks up home-media which is an eroding market. And it talks up how it's one of the most successful films of the year despite few major releases ever happen before May and it will be annihilated by the likes of Avengers, Deadpool, Jurassic Park, The Incredibles, Solo, Ant-Man, etc.

 

[Dragonlordxxxxx]

Dayum, JB just destroyed Screen Rant's crediblity (a little).

 

[Guestx]

It talks about the 2x budget rule-of-thumb for breaking even which hasn't been true in probably a decade.

I am familiar with this rule. You don't think it's still a good general guideline? Why did this change? The rise of the importance of international box office?

And it talks about how it's one of Spielberg's biggest earners while intentionally ignoring inflation.

Yes, but you know, that didn't stop people from certifying Titanic as the highest grossing film of all time. Still technically true at the time.

And it talks up home-media which is an eroding market.

It's not what it used to be but it's still a factor, wouldn't you say? Between Blu-Ray and DVD, Wonder Woman earned $93 million in 2017.

That's not exactly spare change.

 

[JBSchroeds]

I am familiar with this rule. You don't think it's still a good general guideline? Why did this change? The rise of the importance of international box office?



Yes, but you know, that didn't stop people from certifying Titanic as the highest grossing film of all time. Still technically true at the time.



It's not what it used to be but it's still a factor, wouldn't you say? Between Blu-Ray and DVD, Wonder Woman earned $93 million in 2017.

That's not exactly spare change.

The international number is a larger percent of the total and studios get a smaller percentage of it. So the global total required for break-even has gone up. Back when earnings were like 80% domestic the 2x number was fine, but when the situation is flipped it just doesn't hold up anymore. 3x budget for global total is a much safer estimate now than 2x.

Look at it this way: Titanic, even when corrected for inflation, is still #5 all time domestic. Uncorrected, RPO won't even crack Spielberg's top ten domestic earners. Corrected, and it'll drop to out of the top 20. So the article saying "In fact, unadjusted for inflation, Ready Player One is Spielberg’s sixth-largest moneymaker of all-time," is such disingenuous BS. International take has exploded in the last decade and none of Spielbergs biggest hits benefited from it, and his biggest corrected domestic totals are among the top all time.

Wonder Woman made nearly three times the domestic total that RPO is going to and was considered a cultural milestone. Sure, it can be a factor, but RPO doesn't strike me as the sort to play big on home video. It didn't make a ton at the boxoffice. It's not a cultural touchstone. It's not part of a larger series. It doesn't star any big names. It hasn't had impressive legs at the theater. It hasn't had phenomenal reviews. To me it seems to be the quintessential "catch it on cable/streaming" type of movie.

 

[Guestx]

Look at it this way: Titanic, even when corrected for inflation, is still #5 all time domestic. Uncorrected, RPO won't even crack Spielberg's top ten domestic earners. Corrected, and it'll drop to out of the top 20. So the article saying "In fact, unadjusted for inflation, Ready Player One is Spielberg’s sixth-largest moneymaker of all-time," is such disingenuous BS. International take has exploded in the last decade and none of Spielbergs biggest hits benefited from it, and his biggest corrected domestic totals are among the top all time.

Indeed. That's fair enough.

Wonder Woman made nearly three times the domestic total that RPO is going to and was considered a cultural milestone. Sure, it can be a factor, but RPO doesn't strike me as the sort to play big on home video. It didn't make a ton at the boxoffice. It's not a cultural touchstone. It's not part of a larger series. It doesn't star any big names. It hasn't had impressive legs at the theater. It hasn't had phenomenal reviews. To me it seems to be the quintessential "catch it on cable/streaming" type of movie.

Here's how I'm looking at it. . .

We're all just guessing so for all we know the writer of that first article I posted could be correct and RPO is already profitable. It cites a range of $420 million to $500 million, in terms of what the film needs to break even.

If in fact that estimate is correct then at $545 million it may already be in the profit zone by $45 million to $125 million. Then let's say it does, I dunno, $35 million in Blu-Ray/DVD sales. I think it will do AT LEAST that much in sales. And that is JUST Blu-Ray/DVD sales. You also have VOD sales and rentals on top of that. TV rights. Merchandising.

I really think the movie is already profitable and it's just making money at this point. Even if we use your conservative estimate of it needing 3x its budget, it's already exceeded that number by $25 million.

I bet when it's all said and done and they've collected most all the money they're going to get from every revenue source (like, say, three years from now) RPO will have brought in $100 million+ in profit for Warner Bros.

 

[minute bull]

My favorite kind of blu-ray.

"Ready Player One" will be available on 4K Blu-ray 3D Combo Pack....

... and Blu-ray Combo Pack and DVD. The 4K Blu-ray 3D Combo Pack features an Ultra HD Blu-ray disc with the theatrical version in 4K with HDR, a Blu-ray disc featuring the theatrical version and a Digital version of the movie. The Blu-ray Combo Pack features a Blu-ray disc with the film in hi-definition, a Blu-ray disc with the special features in hi-definition, a DVD with the film in standard definition and a Digital version of the movie.

The 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray disc of "Ready Player One" will feature Dolby VisionTM HDR that dramatically expands the color palette and contrast range and uses dynamic metadata to automatically optimize the picture for every screen, frame by frame. Also, the 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray and Blu-ray 3D discs of "Ready Player One" will feature a Dolby Atmos soundtrack remixed specifically for the home theater environment to place and move audio anywhere in the room, including overhead. To experience Dolby Atmos at home, a Dolby Atmos enabled AV receiver and additional speakers are required, or a Dolby Atmos enabled sound bar. Dolby Atmos soundtracks are also fully backward compatible with traditional audio configurations and legacy home entertainment equipment..

JULY 24

 

[TrueBias]

I just want more scenes.

 

[Loiosh]

Man, I really, really, really enjoyed this film.

It has a ton of flaws to be sure but it felt like my wheelhouse. Some of the scenes were spectacularly epic. I wish I had seen it on the big screen.

Going to give it a solid 8, and tempted to give it a 9 because I enjoyed it so much, but I know it really isn't a 9.