Economy "Radical" Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

[Social Distance Warrior]

A common conservative comment was here is a woman who has no idea how government works now wants to set tax polices and they would post the video of her dancing. Basically using the dance video to say she is to immature to be making big decisions especially on tax polices.

I dont agree with most/many of her policies, but there is nothing wrong with her earlier dancing video , tbh, it makes her more likable...and the conspiracy theorist in me makes me want to think that her people released the video.

Was there a thread in this forum about that dance video?

 

[PEB]

I dont agree with most/many of her policies, but there is nothing wrong with her earlier dancing video , tbh, it makes her more likable...and the conspiracy theorist in me makes me want to think that her people released the video.

Was there a thread in this forum about that dance video?

No because they will just merge it with another thread so why bother. The person who posted the video deleted his account but apparently created a new account on Twitter.

 

[AlexDB9]

Missing the point that AlexDB9 is trying to do because the right fell completely on their face they now have to try to defuse this by saying no big deal. Again Fox, a number of Fox properties made a big deal about it till AOC and 100,000's of social media posts made the thing a pretty big deal and made the right looked really uncool. So now they are they leave the spin machine "AlexDB9" to tear it down by saying no big deal or lets show her butt photo for a billion times because that is cool. The transparent effort by the right to defuse their F-Up it never gets tiring.

The right

Alex “the spin machine” DB9



I don’t agree with her and I wrote why I didn’t....but yeah was hoping for a nicer ass. Sadly socialism was distributed wrongly on her

 

[sangreporsangre]

I dont agree with most/many of her policies, but there is nothing wrong with her earlier dancing video , tbh, it makes her more likable...and the conspiracy theorist in me makes me want to think that her people released the video.

Was there a thread in this forum about that dance video?

Conservatives are snowflakes overall, especially when it comes to this young lady, but I haven't seen any evidence of some big "conservative backlash" against her for the old dancing video that leaked. Imo you're right that her people leaked it (via that anonymous Twitter account that has now been deleted) hoping that idiots would take the bait. When they didn't take the bait, well so what? Let's just pretend that they did. People will go along with the narrative because it's a fun one. I guarantee you that this will be a constant talking point going forward, even if nobody can establish that it actually happened right now.

 

[Armbars]

The 70% tax girl is perfect for politics, it will be interesting watching her career play out over the years into the real world. A world where the divide between rich and poor gets wider. She's going to be the peoples politician for the poor and uneducated.

 

[shockaholic12]

That's the weird thing I noticed on social media about the dancing video....some anonymous Twitter account (since deleted) leaked it, saying that it showed what an idiot she was or whatever. Every prominent "conservative"/Republican type account I saw address the video just said something along the lines of "so what? Why would anyone think this makes her look bad? She's just a college student having fun here, if anything it makes her more likable".

But then the next day all the "liberal"/Democrat accounts and even AOC herself are going on about how triggered "the right" is, how "the right" made such a big deal and criticized her for dancing. And now someone is repeating it itt, I guarantee you as time goes on that will be the narrative. Personally I think that her team leaked it hoping that the moron conservatives would take the bait, and when they didn't they just ran with the narrative anyway.

Oh some spazzed a bit over it. You can see a bit of it in this thread. You can also see a 16 page thread from yesterday about the f word another own said. Triggered!

And a bunch of memes and incels spazzing over their physical looks. Wow, who gives that much a fuck about that? All this when they have just gotten to DC, so clearly they have set up commercial real estate in these folks heads.

Obviously your average, socially adjusted conservative isn’t jumping on this. But plenty of dummies are.

 

[sangreporsangre]

Oh some spazzed a bit over it. You can see a bit of it in this thread. You can also see a 16 page thread from yesterday about the f word another own said. Triggered!

And a bunch of memes and incels spazzing over their physical looks. Wow, who gives that much a fuck about that? All this when they have just gotten to DC, so clearly they have set up commercial real estate in these folks heads.

Obviously your average, socially adjusted conservative isn’t jumping on this. But plenty of dummies are.

I haven't seen anything near the "backlash" that is being claimed. And what is going to be claimed going forward, from now on we're gonna hear about how Republicans and conservatives all flipped out over the dancing video. I haven't seen any prominent "conservative" type pundits saying anything other than "who cares". Even the BBC article a guy posted to me as some kind of smoking gun had 1 post from a guy with 7500 followers and one from a complete random. I agree that conservatives are snowflakes overall (the f-word thing from that Muslim politician being a prime example) but this is a phony narrative that's gonna continue to be pushed. Not a big deal at all on the grand scheme of things, but just another example of how retarded and tribal we have become as a society.

 

[Ruprecht]

I had a leaf, nice car, but not viable for many scenarios. Battery anxiety was a PITA. I'm a big believer in electric, don't think it's anywhere close to maturity. I currently use the Prius plugin as a compromise. A good high percent of my driving is pure electric, even with the puny batteries. No battery anxiety.

Tesla is the only viable option for most folks, expensive.

Yeah, the Leaf started off with those 24kWh aircooled batteries in 2010, and this year they are supposedly introducing 60kWh liquid cooled units. Up until the 40kWh units they are physically interchangeable as well, although you'll need to hack the controller software because Nissan's not about to cannibalise their own new vehicle sales (there's already some after market add on packs with warranties as well). Also the sustained current from the aircooled 40kwhr batteries can negatively effect battery longevity. At the moment it's still barely worth it given the incentives on new electric vehicles.

It's those decreasing battery prices and increasing capacities which are key to a larger market share though, as well as making used electrics viable for those that can't afford new.

I'm still 2 wheels only, and bikes are a fair way behind (mostly because of how much more important form factor and energy density is on bikes). So it'll be a while for me.
That said, of all the established bike manufacturers it's actually Harley Davidson (!) that's looking particularly aggressive on EVs. The Livewire concept has been around a while, but it's supposed to be hitting commercial production this year.

 

[xcvbn]

This is going to be some rough calculations, as it's more of a thought experiment than an in depth look at the exact numbers it a tenth of a percentage point, but it will be correct enough to get an idea. So here we go......

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics the following are the number of vehicles registered in the US over the last 5 years they have published (this will include freight vehicles such as cargo vans and semis, so yah...).

2012 - 253,639,386
2013 - 255,876,822
2014 - 260,350,938
2015 - 263,610,219
2016 - 268,799,083

Now, using these numbers we can see that over a 5 year span there is an AVERAGE of 3,789,924 more vehicles on the road every year. For the purpose of this, I will jump ahead to the very beginning of 2019. Which makes for a grand total of.... 276,378,931. So, that's where we start off.

Now, how many new vehicles are sold every year? Well... Thats actually an annoying one to find it seems. But thankfully, after much searching, I have found some graph that doesn't involve a shitload of number crunching! So I will use the same set of sales years for this. Meaning, 2011 to 2015.

2011 - 12,778,885
2012 - 14,492,398
2013 - 15,582,136
2014 - 16,531,070
2015 - 17,470,659

So, now we have an average of 15,371,030 new vehicles each year. Using this point of data, we can get the final important piece of information; the number of vehicles removed from the total every year. Using the averages, we come to a total of 11,581,106.

And here we go. If we just use averages, we can get an idea on the total amount of vehicles on the road every year, and extend that out till we get to the date point we want. (I will just use the averages from these years to keep my brain from melting completely, don't hurt me!) I am also crazy tired, so I will keep this simple for my own sake. Assuming all vehicles starting on 1/1/2019 are gas, and all new vehicles sold are electric, the table goes as (Total gas vehicles of previous year - vehicles lost)/New All Electric Sales.

2019 - 276,378,931/0
2020 - 264,797,825/15,371,030
2021 - 253,216,719/30,742,060
2022 - 241,635,613/46,113,090
2023 - 230,054,507/61,484,120
2024 - 218,473,401/76,855,150
2025 - 206,892,295/92,226,180
2026 - 195,311,189/107,597,210
2027 - 183,730,083/122,968,240
2028 - 172,148,977/138,339,270
2029 - 160,567,871/153,710,300
2030 - 148,986,871/169,081,603

Going by this (god awfully simplified structure) it would take until sometime in 2029 for electric vehicles to finally overtake gas powered vehicles. And that is under the absolute, remarkably best circumstances I could give electric vehicles, meaning a statistical impossibility. You would need about another 13 years before gas vehicles were entirely phased out. A grand total of 23 years for complete elimination, well over her talking point of 12 years.

Now, there are several other factors which seriously complicate the math. Electric sales in the US only account for 240,380 in 2018. While a 130% increase over 2017, thats still a dismal 1.56% of new car sales (give or take a few tenths, I'm fucking tired). So in all reality, the chart should actually look something like this....

(previous years total vehicles - vehicle loss) + (new vehicles - last years total electric vehicle sales * 1.56) : Last years total electric vehicles * 1.56)

.....I think.

And that still isn't accounting for people who will cling to older gas vehicles for any number of reasons, electric vehicles being part of the total vehicle loss from the previous year, economic downswings which bolster used vehicle sales while depressing new (used vehicles sales in 2017 were around 39 million), and god only knows how many other factors. All said and done, having all electric vehicles in the next 20 years is nothing short of a pipe dream barring serious government intervention.

Now, if someone wants to dig into the numbers and do some real crunching, I will supply the links that I used to get this all done. And again, math is not my strong suite so feel free to correct me if I screwed this up somewhere (which I am sure I did at some point. Bleh.)

But regardless, hope this sates your curiosity a wee bit @panamaican as I did the best I could after a 16 hour work day. And now I am off to fucking bed.

Links of shit:
total vehicles - https://www.bts.gov/content/number-us-aircraft-vehicles-vessels-and-other-conveyances
new vehicle sales - http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/10/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures/
used vehicle sales - https://www.edmunds.com/about/press...ording-to-latest-edmunds-used-car-report.html
electric sales 2018 - https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/0...-210-in-q4-2018-us-electric-car-sales-report/

@panamaican

Elon Musk talked about this on Rogans podcast and made a good(albeit very simple) point.

Assuming:
The average new vehicle has a life of 25 years(I believe this is actually the case), from today forward every new vehicle sold is electric and we maintain about the same level of sales.

Then:
We can surmise that it would take at least 25 years to replace the entire fleet of American cars with electric.

Now for some of my own MMAMATH: If we were to estimate that 4% of all vehicles sold in 2018 were electric and if every year forward that number increased by 50% then in 2026 100% of newly sold vehicles will be electric. And going off of the "25-year rule" we could then reasonably say by 2051 all US vehicles on the road will be electric.

But it's safe to say there would be many forces to slow the push for 100% EV. Without a government mandate or major reduction in gasoline/diesel profitability, we're probably looking at much closer to the year 2100.

Now as for whether it's possible to do so in 12 years I think that if we made it a national emergency to go full EV we could make it happen. The only likely constraint would be mining enough raw materials- but Erik Prince and the good boys of Blackwater have our backs there(well, probably not our backs, but they'll be doing great): https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1OV1S1

 

[shockaholic12]

I haven't seen anything near the "backlash" that is being claimed. And what is going to be claimed going forward, from now on we're gonna hear about how Republicans and conservatives all flipped out over the dancing video. I haven't seen any prominent "conservative" type pundits saying anything other than "who cares". Even the BBC article a guy posted to me as some kind of smoking gun had 1 post from a guy with 7500 followers and one from a complete random. I agree that conservatives are snowflakes overall (the f-word thing from that Muslim politician being a prime example) but this is a phony narrative that's gonna continue to be pushed. Not a big deal at all on the grand scheme of things, but just another example of how retarded and tribal we have become as a society.

Ummm, I was replying to a guy who posted the dancing video and called her an idiot. And lumped in the dude’s in the f word thread and the ones posting memes about her looks? Are they not triggered?

Where did I call out prominent Republicans? Why are you adressesing this to me?

 

[uppercutbus]

Ummm, I was replying to a guy who posted the dancing video and called her an idiot. And lumped in the dude’s in the f word thread and the ones posting memes about her looks? Are they not triggered?

Hardly "the right".

That's the weird thing I noticed on social media about the dancing video....some anonymous Twitter account (since deleted) leaked it, saying that it showed what an idiot she was or whatever. Every prominent "conservative"/Republican type account I saw address the video just said something along the lines of "so what? Why would anyone think this makes her look bad? She's just a college student having fun here, if anything it makes her more likable".

But then the next day all the "liberal"/Democrat accounts and even AOC herself are going on about how triggered "the right" is, how "the right" made such a big deal and criticized her for dancing. And now someone is repeating it itt, I guarantee you as time goes on that will be the narrative. Personally I think that her team leaked it hoping that the moron conservatives would take the bait, and when they didn't they just ran with the narrative anyway.

needs reposting.

 

[PEB]

Yeah, the Leaf started off with those 24kWh aircooled batteries in 2010, and this year they are supposedly introducing 60kWh units with active temperature control. Up until the 40kWh units they are physically interchangeable as well, although you'll need to hack the controller software because Nissan's not about to cannibalise their own new vehicle sales (there's already some after market add on packs with warranties as well). Also the sustained current from the aircooled 40kwhr batteries can negatively effect battery longevity. At the moment it's still barely worth it given the incentives on new electric vehicles.

It's those decreasing battery prices and increasing capacities which are key to a larger market share though.

I'm still 2 wheels only, and bikes are a fair way behind (mostly because of how much more important form factor and energy density is on bikes). So it'll be a while for me.
That said, of all the established bike manufacturers it's actually Harley Davidson that's looking particularly aggressive on EVs. The Livewire concept has been around a while, but it's supposed to be hitting commercial production this year.

Harley is very smart to look into electrification because electric motors are doing pretty well in the performance segment. I believe there is now and electric bike that topped 220 mph "that is crazy". As far as range and with new faster charging electric bikes are able to reach a larger group of people. The one issue still a problem is weight of the bike but they are getting better as battery density improves. Tesla head of battery manufacturing during an interview with a Vegas based newspaper hinted improved battery technology is on the way in 2019.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

This goes without saying , but AOC is fucking hot.

 

[Ruprecht]

Harley is very smart to look into electrification because electric motors are doing pretty well in the performance segment. I believe there is now and electric bike that topped 220 mph "that is crazy". As far as range and with new faster charging electric bikes are able to reach a larger group of people. The one issue still a problem is weight of the bike but they are getting better as battery density improves. Tesla head of battery manufacturing during an interview with a Vegas based newspaper hinted improved battery technology is on the way in 2019.

HD don't have much choice when it comes to either expanding their demographic or dwindling back to a boutique manufacturer as their customer base literally dies. Electric bikes are only a part of their new strategy.
An electric bike won Pike's Peak back in 2013, so the performance is there. At least on the high end offerings. The more mainstream offerings still have a long way to go.

 

[Deleted member 484047]

@panamaican

Elon Musk talked about this on Rogans podcast and made a good(albeit very simple) point.

Assuming:
The average new vehicle has a life of 25 years(I believe this is actually the case), from today forward every new vehicle sold is electric and we maintain about the same level of sales.

Then:
We can surmise that it would take at least 25 years to replace the entire fleet of American cars with electric.

Now for some of my own MMAMATH: If we were to estimate that 4% of all vehicles sold in 2018 were electric and if every year forward that number increased by 50% then in 2026 100% of newly sold vehicles will be electric. And going off of the "25-year rule" we could then reasonably say by 2051 all US vehicles on the road will be electric.

But it's safe to say there would be many forces to slow the push for 100% EV. Without a government mandate or major reduction in gasoline/diesel profitability, we're probably looking at much closer to the year 2100.

Now as for whether it's possible to do so in 12 years I think that if we made it a national emergency to go full EV we could make it happen. The only likely constraint would be mining enough raw materials- but Erik Prince and the good boys of Blackwater have our backs there(well, probably not our backs, but they'll be doing great): https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1OV1S1

Well done sir, thank you for doing some of the more complicated maths. It's a super interesting subject that I wish more people would be interested in actually discussing.

 

[sangreporsangre]

Ummm, I was replying to a guy who posted the dancing video and called her an idiot. And lumped in the dude’s in the f word thread and the ones posting memes about her looks? Are they not triggered?

Where did I call out prominent Republicans? Why are you adressesing this to me?

You quoted my post so I responded, that's all. Thought I would make a point about this tempest in a teapot.

 

[PEB]

HD don't have much choice when it comes to either expanding their demographic or dwindling back to a boutique manufacturer as their customer base literally dies. Electric bikes are only a part of their new strategy.
An electric bike won Pike's Peak back in 2013, so the performance is there. At least on the high end offerings. The more mainstream offerings still have a long way to go.

I don't think it could be that long from now and Pikes Peak has been good for electrics for sometime and the climbing record belongs to an electric VW. Now electrics are going after more mainstream performance records like NIO setting the Ring record for two weeks before McLaren in a very unusual act for them went to the ring to break that record by 4 seconds for a production car "Use production as in there are only 7 of the P1 GTR road legal cars".

 

[Ruprecht]

I don't think it could be that long from now and Pikes Peak has been good for electrics for sometime and the climbing record belongs to an electric VW. Now electrics are going after more mainstream performance records like NIO setting the Ring record for two weeks before McLaren in a very unusual act for them went to the ring to break that record by 4 seconds for a production car "Use production as in there are only 7 of the P1 GTR road legal cars".

Well, MotoE is set to be the pinnacle of electric road racing for bikes.
They are nowhere near MotoGP performance though.
The same goes for the TT Zero and IoMTT (last year the IoMTT fastest lap was 16:57.728 versus the electric bikes 18:34.956).

 

[shockaholic12]

Hardly "the right".


needs reposting.

Where did I say, “the right”? What are you talking about?

You guys are very sensitive and paranoid about this.

 

[sangreporsangre]

An example of what I'm talking about:



You'll notice that it doesn't provide any more evidence of this "conservative backlash" than the BBC article did.