Prediction thread Charles vs Ilia

JBJ was here said:
Unlike in boxing, where knockdowns are officially defined and logged; are integral, explicit, mandatory scoring factors; and result in a pause in the action, in MMA a knockdown is whatever someone watching says it is and a fighter can, at least theoretically, be knocked down any number of times more than his opponent and still go to the bell or even win the round.

In round 1 of Poirier/Oliveira there were two times when Poirier landed a strike causing Oliveira's hand or knee to hit the ground but Oliveira popped right back up without any real lapse in defense, and there was one time where Oliveira went to the ground on his back following a strike and didn't get up until after some brief follow-up on the ground by Poirier and Poirier backing off.

It doesn't matter whether you call that three knockdowns, one knockdown, or a handful of snausages; they were three hard shots in a round chock-full of hard shots where Poirier landed slightly better shots overall in a close but clear 10-9 round.
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Check for Oliveira's legs, he stumbled and was on shaky legs at least 3 more times.
I'm fine with a 10-9, wouldn't change anything. Nowadays it would be scored 10-8 though
 
Ilia second round KO i think easily. I don't see much that Charles has for him. Could be wrong but think it will look easier than the Volk fight.
 
Cowboy Kurt Angle said:
How do we see this fight going?

I’m a Charles fan but I think Charles is getting knocked out, I’ve seen enough footage of Ilia being decent on the ground, and with how many times Charles has been knockdown or caught on the feet leading to a submission or KO I just feel like Ilia’s gonna defend the takedowns and land the kill shot on the feet, I’d love to say Charles is too heavy and Charles will easily lay on him and get the sub but I just don’t see it

Plus I’ve seen a lot of people say there’s no guarantee that Ilia’s power is gonna translate to 155 I think it will we’ve seen enough fighters do well moving up too know that Ilia’s likely gonna keep his power
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I'm with you. I think Ilia puts Olives away. I see it going late into the second or sometime in the 3rd round.
 
Considering the resume of both fighters, Topuria is shockingly a BIG favorite. Looks like a good risk if you think Oliveira takes it.

Screenshot 2025-06-17 at 5.37.42 PM.png
 
I think Topuria needs the KO to win. IMO Oliveira will show that size matters, but Charles is chinny and Topuria has a high chance to get the KO.

I'm honestly 50/50, but I'll predict Oliveira wins.
 
IMG_1137.jpeg
The size discrepancy will be significant.
Charles via buggy choke 😂
 
Oliveira has terrible defense and it’s not a problem with most opponents because if he gets caught and hits the ground he’s crafty with those submissions but I think Topuria has a good enough ground game not to be get tapped out.

Further - It would be nice for Olives to keep him at bay and try to catch him coming in with a head kick but I think Tops closes the distance and finds a way to knock him out. Charles chin has seen better days.

Topuria tko round 3.
 
id actually entirely question the MMA acumen of anyone predicting Charles to win unless he is fortuitous in a grappling position where he would be able to take down a very skilled wrestler in Topuria.

the forum seems late to admit that a 35 year old Charles just is past his prime and his punch resistance is a joke. its not just that he is chinny his entire mental aspect of his game goes down when he takes punches and Toporio is the best puncher he has faced let alone the most power.

toporio is more compact quicker and extremely skilled in the pocket as I predict a round 2 finish.

mf couldn't even finish chandler, a BAD fighter.

so yes of toporio loses I am putting my account on it and unlike that clown who kept going bet aside, ill delete it myself. that is how sure I am.
 
After Topuria gets the knockdown and engages on the ground, Oliveira gets sloppy going for the submission and opens himself up to Topuria's Von Preux finish.

Mostly kidding about the exact submission, but I expect the value bet to Topuria by submission once prop odds are more widely available.
 
Ilya by whatever he wants unless Oliviera "Diaz - Conor's" him by walking through shots to stop a gassed smaller man. But Oliviera isnt as durable -probably - and Ilya hasnt gassed - just like Conor had not.

I think its 70-30 Ilya just like it was 70-30 Conor when he fought Diaz the first time.
 
Tough to predict but Charles biggest issue is his tendency to get him with well placed boxing in close.

I like Charles a lot but his defense is an issue. Its in tight exchanges where opponents tend to drop him. He doesn't move his head that well.

This seems to be Ilias speciality. Charles high pace, pressure and grappling on the other hand is something we haven't seen Ilia deal with.

Makes for a great fight stylistically but one that is hard to predict. Guess I'm leaning towards Ilia but only slightly.
 
It is so easy for Ilia to win this one.

But i root for Charles. Appreciate his mma achievements. Everything is possible.
 
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