Prediction : Chucky Olives finishes both Poirier and Gaethje then loses a decision to Makhachev

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So I'm totally biased because I'm a big Charles Olive's fan. Loves the guy's fighting style since he first entered the UFC, super happy for him when he got it all together at LW and got the belt.

I see him finishing both Poirier and Gaethje on the ground in bar burners fights. Of course they can win that fight too it's MMA anything can happen especially at that elite level. But I don't really see the big edge that they have on him today, except durability. And he showed he can come back from adversity big time against Chandler. I really think he's underestimated on here and that people don't realize how dangerous of a finisher he is on the ground, on top of having developed into a really skilled Muay Thai artist.

I know Poirier and Gaethje are enormous fan favorites here and saying they won't win each fight is a blasphemy for both fan bases. But I just see Poirier being caught in a scramble after he gets wild like he usually does. And for Gaethje I'm sorry but as soon as it hits the ground after either gets knocked down he's getting totally schooled in submission grappling. The difference in jiu jitsu between him and do Bronx is abysmal.

Then I see makhachev beating him in 5 rounds fight that goes the distance sadly, just because he's the most skilled at that Caucasus grappling style after khabib, and it's a nightmare style for jiu jitsu fighters as we saw in Khabib/RDA. Plus Islam is calculated on the feet and doesn't take too many risks, maybe because he got knocked out one time. And neither guy is finishing the other on the ground, I just can't see it. Makhachev won't get too wild with ground and pound and he's never catching Do Bronx with a submission ever. Onlychance Chucky Olives has is if he rocks him standing but Makhachev can always stall wrestle for recovery any time.

So that's my prediction, Charles finishes Poirier and Gaethje back to back in sick back and forth fights, and then loses a close decision to Islam Makhachev. What do you think do you see it possible or no ?
 
ConditFan said:
Anything's possible. But one comeback against Chandler does not heart make. He loses all three fights.
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To give more substance I don't see Gaethje beating him ever. Yeah anything's possible for sure but Charles outclasses him globally and the striking advantage of Gaethje is way less that what people think.

Poirier is another story he's more complete and a more difficult matchup for Charles. And makhachev is like the antithesis of his style sadly.
 
Poirier is a BJJ blackbelt, has WAY better striking and is much more proven.

Don't see how Olives wins but anything is possible.
 
Very interesting. There's a lot of variables in this and yet, I hardly disagree with any of it.
 
TheSwedishGOAT said:
Poirier is a BJJ blackbelt, has WAY better striking and is much more proven.

Don't see how Olives wins but anything is possible.
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Lots of people have BJJ blackbelts. Not many of those blackbelts can handle Olivera at that weightclass. I believe that Dustin would at the very least be outclassed, if not finished outright if it came down to that...
 
I really question how good Gaethje is, good enough to give tough guys a challenge? Absolutely but none of his wins have aged well?

Michael Johnson? (Was top 10 at the top but really has always been an incomplete journeyman with talent at best and he beat the shit out of Gaethje and had war before fading, Gaethje out toughed him)

Then he lost to Alvarez and Poirier by TKO in brutal fights where he took an ass kicking.

Then beats Vick, Barboza and Cerrone in round 1

Vick was never anything relevant or talented, that was a rebound lob for Gaethje to spike.

Barboza is chinny, a fringe top 10 guy at best and responds poorly to pressure, a perfect matchup for Gaethje

He beat up the ghost of Donald Cerrone.

Now he fights Tony who's pushing 37 and clobbers him, its a bit of revisionist history, he earned a title shot beating Tony fairly squarely but it's not outrageous to ask it Ferguson was losing some steps at this point?

He got handled by Khabib with ease

He had a war with Chandler where he was rocked and hurt a bunch, very competitive fight. Chandler is super athletic, fast and dangerous for the first 5-7 minutes but Hes also an old battered Lightweight who I suspect loses to a lot of the top 10.

Charles vs Poirier will be interesting, so will Gaethje vs Charles if Charles pulls it off (which I think he does). Islam vs Charles will be the best fight at LW in a long time.
 
I'd love to see him keep the title for awhile. It would be an unexpected twist. And it wouldn't be prone to drama. Like the good 'ol days.
 
Jack&Cat said:
Lots of people have BJJ blackbelts. Not many of those blackbelts can handle Olivera at that weightclass. I believe that Dustin would at the very least be outclassed, if not finished outright if it came down to that...
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Olivera has better BJJ than Dustin but he won't be able to sub him. Dustin is very good himself. It will be a war of attrition and I see Charles falling on the feet before the final round.
 
Iron Monger said:
So I'm totally biased because I'm a big Charles Olive's fan. Loves the guy's fighting style since he first entered the UFC, super happy for him when he got it all together at LW and got the belt.

I see him finishing both Poirier and Gaethje on the ground in bar burners fights. Of course they can win that fight too it's MMA anything can happen especially at that elite level. But I don't really see the big edge that they have on him today, except durability. And he showed he can come back from adversity big time against Chandler. I really think he's underestimated on here and that people don't realize how dangerous of a finisher he is on the ground, on top of having developed into a really skilled Muay Thai artist.

I know Poirier and Gaethje are enormous fan favorites here and saying they won't win each fight is a blasphemy for both fan bases. But I just see Poirier being caught in a scramble after he gets wild like he usually does. And for Gaethje I'm sorry but as soon as it hits the ground after either gets knocked down he's getting totally schooled in submission grappling. The difference in jiu jitsu between him and do Bronx is abysmal.

Then I see makhachev beating him in 5 rounds fight that goes the distance sadly, just because he's the most skilled at that Caucasus grappling style after khabib, and it's a nightmare style for jiu jitsu fighters as we saw in Khabib/RDA. Plus Islam is calculated on the feet and doesn't take too many risks, maybe because he got knocked out one time. And neither guy is finishing the other on the ground, I just can't see it. Makhachev won't get too wild with ground and pound and he's never catching Do Bronx with a submission ever. Onlychance Chucky Olives has is if he rocks him standing but Makhachev can always stall wrestle for recovery any time.

So that's my prediction, Charles finishes Poirier and Gaethje back to back in sick back and forth fights, and then loses a close decision to Islam Makhachev. What do you think do you see it possible or no ?
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I agree. I predict that Oliveira will beat Poirier on the feet and on the ground next week. Oliveira will successfully go back and forth from managing his distance while still moving forward to attempting takedowns or submissions. This will be made possible due to Oliveira's reach advantage, versatility in striking and the threat of the takedown. I don't see Poirier or Gaethje having as much success cornering and cutting distance against him as Chandler did. If I were to guess, I think Oliveira will be the one to walk down Gaethje or Poirier. On the other hand, I think both Dariush or Makhachev will be able to move forward against Oliveira.

Also, I don't like that Poirier's last two fights were against one opponent. It might not even be a thing but I think fighters get too used to that same opponent. Just my gut feeling.
 
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Definitely think he finishes diamond but I can't see it with Justin.
 
TheSwedishGOAT said:
Olivera has better BJJ than Dustin but he won't be able to sub him. Dustin is very good himself. It will be a war of attrition and I see Charles falling on the feet before the final round.
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I humbly disagree with you, Sir. And Olivera's striking is nothing to sleep on... Pun intended.

I've watched him progress this last decade and am not surprised at all that he became a champion. It's not the smartest or the strongest, or even the best. It's those who can evolve to overcome. Look at where his striking started and where it is now. Olivera is a truly well-rounded student of the sport. He snuck up on that division with an ever-evolving skillset and a winners mentality, then crushed the competition no one thought he could beat. Dustin is nothing if not an incredible athlete and fighter, but he doesn't have the experience, grit or well-roundedness to contend with Charles.

As another poster stated just earlier, Charles will finish Dustin... only to succumb to the new wave of MMA, with Islam as the tip of the spear. Islam is just in another realm.
 
Jack&Cat said:
I humbly disagree with you, Sir. And Olivera's striking is nothing to sleep on... Pun intended.

I've watched him progress this last decade and am not surprised at all that he became a champion. It's not the smartest or the strongest, or even the best. It's those who can evolve to overcome. Look at where his striking started and where it is now. Olivera is a truly well-rounded student of the sport. He snuck up on that division with an ever-evolving skillset and a winners mentality, then crushed the competition no one thought he could beat. Dustin is nothing if not an incredible athlete and fighter, but he doesn't have the experience, grit or well-roundedness to contend with Charles.

As another poster stated just earlier, Charles will finish Dustin... only to succumb to the new wave of MMA, with Islam as the tip of the spear. Islam is just in another realm.
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Olivera has improved no doubt, but Dustin is one of the best strikers in the sport. Levels.
 
Olly also beats Islam and then Khabib comes out of retirement for vengence.
 
TheSwedishGOAT said:
Poirier is a BJJ blackbelt, has WAY better striking and is much more proven.

Don't see how Olives wins but anything is possible.
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No he hasn't WAY better striking as of today. What proves that ? He got tagged good by Hooker 1 and a half year ago, he has always been hittable. I don't know why people play this narrative that Dustin is an Anderson Silva type of striker. He isn't. On the other side Charles striking kept and keeps improving. He's not lesser than Poirier or the feet or by not much anyway.

About the BJJ black belt thing well not all black belts are equal. Black belt isn't a set level. Big Nig and Wanderlei both are black belts but Wandy can't hold a candle to minotauro in MMA grappling. Plus Oliveira did submit black belts in the past in Jim Miller and Hatsu Hioki. So I don't see Dustin advantage on the ground.
 
HuskySamoan said:
I really question how good Gaethje is, good enough to give tough guys a challenge? Absolutely but none of his wins have aged well?

Michael Johnson? (Was top 10 at the top but really has always been an incomplete journeyman with talent at best and he beat the shit out of Gaethje and had war before fading, Gaethje out toughed him)

Then he lost to Alvarez and Poirier by TKO in brutal fights where he took an ass kicking.

Then beats Vick, Barboza and Cerrone in round 1

Vick was never anything relevant or talented, that was a rebound lob for Gaethje to spike.

Barboza is chinny, a fringe top 10 guy at best and responds poorly to pressure, a perfect matchup for Gaethje

He beat up the ghost of Donald Cerrone.

Now he fights Tony who's pushing 37 and clobbers him, its a bit of revisionist history, he earned a title shot beating Tony fairly squarely but it's not outrageous to ask it Ferguson was losing some steps at this point?

He got handled by Khabib with ease

He had a war with Chandler where he was rocked and hurt a bunch, very competitive fight. Chandler is super athletic, fast and dangerous for the first 5-7 minutes but Hes also an old battered Lightweight who I suspect loses to a lot of the top 10.

Charles vs Poirier will be interesting, so will Gaethje vs Charles if Charles pulls it off (which I think he does). Islam vs Charles will be the best fight at LW in a long time.
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Honestly Garthje is a bit overrated imo but because he's exciting his fan base won't acknowledge any analysis of his flaws. He's training with Wittman and is a bit more patient so we must believe he's invincible. While in reality he still has a tendency to wild brawls if pressured and his BJJ must be the worst in all of the top 5 at LW. The last point is not even debatable I think. I honestly see Charles having a much easier fight against Gaethje than Poirier, the latter being a more difficult stylistic matchup for Do Bronx.
 
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