Prediction : Chucky Olives finishes both Poirier and Gaethje then loses a decision to Makhachev

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HuskySamoan said:
I really question how good Gaethje is, good enough to give tough guys a challenge? Absolutely but none of his wins have aged well?

Michael Johnson? (Was top 10 at the top but really has always been an incomplete journeyman with talent at best and he beat the shit out of Gaethje and had war before fading, Gaethje out toughed him)

Then he lost to Alvarez and Poirier by TKO in brutal fights where he took an ass kicking.

Then beats Vick, Barboza and Cerrone in round 1

Vick was never anything relevant or talented, that was a rebound lob for Gaethje to spike.

Barboza is chinny, a fringe top 10 guy at best and responds poorly to pressure, a perfect matchup for Gaethje

He beat up the ghost of Donald Cerrone.

Now he fights Tony who's pushing 37 and clobbers him, its a bit of revisionist history, he earned a title shot beating Tony fairly squarely but it's not outrageous to ask it Ferguson was losing some steps at this point?

He got handled by Khabib with ease

He had a war with Chandler where he was rocked and hurt a bunch, very competitive fight. Chandler is super athletic, fast and dangerous for the first 5-7 minutes but Hes also an old battered Lightweight who I suspect loses to a lot of the top 10.

Charles vs Poirier will be interesting, so will Gaethje vs Charles if Charles pulls it off (which I think he does). Islam vs Charles will be the best fight at LW in a long time.
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Man, this is some MMAmath!

He beat Johnson directly after Johnson lost to Khabib. You know who Johnson KO'd in one round before his Khabib fight? Dustin Poirier.

He did lose to Alvarez and Poirier by TKO. But they were both wars. He wasn't dominated in either fight.

He got handled by Khabib with ease. OK who hasn't?

He KO'd Vick who was on a 4 fight winning streak and started his downfall.

He destroyed Tony who was on a 12 fight winning streak

Crushed Barboza

Annihilated Cerrone

And has beaten Chandler.

You're an idiot if you don't respect what Gaethje has done in the UFC.
 
I would like to see Olives beat them 3. It would be something special in terms of a run.
 
jk7707 said:
Man, this is some MMAmath!

He beat Johnson directly after Johnson lost to Khabib. You know who Johnson KO'd in one round before his Khabib fight? Dustin Poirier.

He did lose to Alvarez and Poirier by TKO. But they were both wars. He wasn't dominated in either fight.

He got handled by Khabib with ease. OK who hasn't?

He KO'd Vick who was on a 4 fight winning streak and started his downfall.

He destroyed Tony who was on a 12 fight winning streak

Crushed Barboza

Annihilated Cerrone

And has beaten Chandler.

You're an idiot if you don't respect what Gaethje has done in the UFC.
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I respect what Gaethje has done in the UFC and as I said, its a bit of revisionists history by me, but his wins have not aged that well in some regards.
 
I don't think Ismak has 5 round cardio and can hang on the feet for so long with Ollie. However, if you're expecting 5 rounds of grappling - I think Ismak is way better and will sub Oliveira before championship rounds. Which is what I expect to happen, I'd favor Islam in that match up.

I'm also leaning towards Doostin to finish Ollie early. Chandler almost did it, but he lacks the finesse of Poirier (probably has more sheer power, though).

I think Doostin wins the belt, rematches Gaethje and either gets into a trilogy with him or wins and moves up to WW for some money fights (would definitely be a new angle for UFC to try and weasel that 4th fight with Conor in). But I don't think he's fighting Ismak, ever.
 
He’s much more likely to beat Islam than either Dustin or Justin.
 
Porier vs Olievera will go just like Swanson vs Olievera did.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
And he’d still knock Oliveira out cold but that’s not my point. We’re talking about his “weakness” on the ground. Poirier hasn’t been submitted since 2012 if you ditch his fight against the GOAT grappler in Khabib. I think a lot of people on this forum are sleeping on the fact that Poirier finished a lot of his early fights via submission and before his sweet shoulder rolls he was doing a ton of BJJ, he knows his way around the mat. I think if Oliveira really wants this fight to go to the ground he has to force it there with striking which I don't think gets the job done. Poirier isn't gonna panic shoot or back off in the standup, and jumping guard in the clinch is gonna get Oliveira in deep trouble. Oliveira’s wrestling isn't exactly good and in the scramble I favor Poirier’s BJJ experience to get him back to the feet and keep it standing. I see this fight going the same way as Brian Ortega’s title fight against Holloway but with a knockout finish. I’m not sleeping on Oliveira. His growth as a fighter is immense. No longer a one dimensional fighter, but levels.
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Quote my whole post when you quote me. I said 'poirier couldn't handle Michael Johnson" in an ironic way to respond to your "Oliveira couldn't handle Pettis". It's silly to judge fighters that have evolved leaps and bonds by setback they had 5 years ago, wether it is for Oliveira, Poirier or anyone else.

Poirier got submitted more than one time, I see no justification as to not count the khabib loss.

Poirier can definitely win that fight but if he does it's in a war of attrition and a late finish. Don't forget that poirier has one of the worst TDD in all of LW and that Oliveira's wrestling is coming together, especially his counter double leg when his opponent swings like the one he pulled off against Chandler in round one.

I get your points anyway and respect your opinion but my analysis makes me think Oliveira will be the winner when it's all said and done.
 
TheSwedishGOAT said:
Poirier is a BJJ blackbelt, has WAY better striking and is much more proven.

Don't see how Olives wins but anything is possible.
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Poirer’s blackbelt didn’t help him against Khabib. And Gaethje’s supposedly D1 level wrestling didn’t help him against Khabib. Aloe Vera probably beats both of them but he has a tendency to find ways to lose just like Overeem.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
Poirier has better takedown defense than Oliveira…
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Except it's a non factor for Oliveira as he's in no danger of being taken down because Poirier won't want a ground fight. On the contrary Oliveira would welcome being taken down. On the opposite Poirier has to be wary of Oliveira's takedowns because he doesn't want that fight to end in Oliveira area of expertise. And he still has poor tdd that's a fact even hooker took him down a couple times.
 
daniel san said:
Poirer’s blackbelt didn’t help him against Khabib. And Gaethje’s supposedly D1 level wrestling didn’t help him against Khabib. Aloe Vera probably beats both of them but he has a tendency to find ways to lose just like Overeem.
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Khabib and Islam would both have their way with Olives on the ground.

Khabib is retired but remember this post when Islam submits him.
 
Madeline Chelsea said:
Sometimes I wonder if people actually believe this. I think Oliveira is definitely the better grappler, but Chandler made him look like a Jr. brown belt. I don't think Poirier is going to have much trouble on the ground with him. His ground game is pretty underrated somehow in this forum despite only having two submission losses against elite fighters. The way he handled Pettis (who is extremely good on his back and has submitted Oliveira) was really impressive.
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I never said or thinked that Dustin is a bad grappler. He's a very good grappler on the ground. He just doesn't have good tdd that's a fact.

And how did Chandler make Oliveira look like a brown belt ? When Oliveira took his back in the first 2 minutes like Chandler was a white belt ? Or when he slammed himself into a tighter body triangle ? Or when Chandler got up and he was throwing casual up kicks waiting for Chandler to engage ? And then got back up without problem when he decided too ? Because that's all the ground fighting that happened in that fight. I'm not sure we watched the same bout anymore.
 
HuskySamoan said:
I really question how good Gaethje is, good enough to give tough guys a challenge? Absolutely but none of his wins have aged well?

Michael Johnson? (Was top 10 at the top but really has always been an incomplete journeyman with talent at best and he beat the shit out of Gaethje and had war before fading, Gaethje out toughed him)

Then he lost to Alvarez and Poirier by TKO in brutal fights where he took an ass kicking.

Then beats Vick, Barboza and Cerrone in round 1

Vick was never anything relevant or talented, that was a rebound lob for Gaethje to spike.

Barboza is chinny, a fringe top 10 guy at best and responds poorly to pressure, a perfect matchup for Gaethje

He beat up the ghost of Donald Cerrone.

Now he fights Tony who's pushing 37 and clobbers him, its a bit of revisionist history, he earned a title shot beating Tony fairly squarely but it's not outrageous to ask it Ferguson was losing some steps at this point?

He got handled by Khabib with ease

He had a war with Chandler where he was rocked and hurt a bunch, very competitive fight. Chandler is super athletic, fast and dangerous for the first 5-7 minutes but Hes also an old battered Lightweight who I suspect loses to a lot of the top 10.

Charles vs Poirier will be interesting, so will Gaethje vs Charles if Charles pulls it off (which I think he does). Islam vs Charles will be the best fight at LW in a long time.
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This is actually spot on. Gaethje, though exciting, is basically a palooka.

He's been ko'd many times as a striker, his grappling sucks, people need to face the fact that he's not really "world class" at anything.

Yeah, he's exciting, but the idea that he's actually earned a title shot, for losing to Alvarez, losing to Poirier, then beating a bunch of skinny nontitlists, is laughable.

Can't deny it though, Gaethje is fun to watch, but it's not a valid reason to qualify for a title shot, when he just lost his last one— then barely beat another guy who just lost his last one.

If Dana White we're a man of principle, then the winner of Makachev x Dariush would be facing the winner of Oliveira x Poirier. End of debate.
 
Chuck vs Dustin is a very even match up. Dustin ability to stay in the pocket, and negate most of the damage that comes his way is a very impressive quality. Oliveira fights long, and sometimes uses elbow, and seems to be quicker of these two. But I would give an edge to Dustin who is simply more proved in stand up game. Ground however, Olviera has an amazing submission offensive, where Dustin really doesn't do much in that department. Defensively great,but nothing else.
Oliviera Vs Gatheje though, is much more one sided. Gatheje won't be able to do much against Bronx. Too sluggish. It's just a matter of time until he gets pieced up. You can quote me on that.
 
In order to win, dustin will have to enter the pocket and allow takedowns.
Charles has a great double leg.
 
Iron Monger said:
So I'm totally biased because I'm a big Charles Olive's fan. Loves the guy's fighting style since he first entered the UFC, super happy for him when he got it all together at LW and got the belt.

I see him finishing both Poirier and Gaethje on the ground in bar burners fights. Of course they can win that fight too it's MMA anything can happen especially at that elite level. But I don't really see the big edge that they have on him today, except durability. And he showed he can come back from adversity big time against Chandler. I really think he's underestimated on here and that people don't realize how dangerous of a finisher he is on the ground, on top of having developed into a really skilled Muay Thai artist.

I know Poirier and Gaethje are enormous fan favorites here and saying they won't win each fight is a blasphemy for both fan bases. But I just see Poirier being caught in a scramble after he gets wild like he usually does. And for Gaethje I'm sorry but as soon as it hits the ground after either gets knocked down he's getting totally schooled in submission grappling. The difference in jiu jitsu between him and do Bronx is abysmal.

Then I see makhachev beating him in 5 rounds fight that goes the distance sadly, just because he's the most skilled at that Caucasus grappling style after khabib, and it's a nightmare style for jiu jitsu fighters as we saw in Khabib/RDA. Plus Islam is calculated on the feet and doesn't take too many risks, maybe because he got knocked out one time. And neither guy is finishing the other on the ground, I just can't see it. Makhachev won't get too wild with ground and pound and he's never catching Do Bronx with a submission ever. Onlychance Chucky Olives has is if he rocks him standing but Makhachev can always stall wrestle for recovery any time.

So that's my prediction, Charles finishes Poirier and Gaethje back to back in sick back and forth fights, and then loses a close decision to Islam Makhachev. What do you think do you see it possible or no ?
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Fair
I think Charles beats all these 3. Dustin/Justin chances are landing a big one and following it up. Islam grappling wont make him afraid. Charles has a better overall game than these 3 in my opinion. This division is really interesting
 
If Charles wins both, Doostin and Joostin, then Im pretty confident that he will also beat islam as his momentum will be too much for anybody to handle!
 
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